Friday, May 28, 2021

Pressure's on: Mike McGlinchey. Anchors a-weigh

By Scooter_McG

Mike McGlinchey is no stranger to pressure. The man dubbed the "CEO" by teammates has been under pressure to perform ever since he was drafted ninth overall in the 2018 draft and the 49ers promptly traded away incumbent RT Trent Brown. Brown is good in pass protection and solid in the run game as his sheer size can overwhelm opposing DEs. But he didn't offer the mobility in the running game that Shanahan was after for his outside zone scheme, so the 49ers decided to move on and replace him with a rookie first rounder in McGlinchey, despite having a number of other holes on the roster they could have addressed at that pick. 

From a running game perspective, the decision to replace Brown with McGlinchey has been a huge success and paid immediate dividends. In 2017 the 49ers ran for 1,662 yards at an average of 4.1 yards per carry. This increased to 1,902 rushing yards in 2018 at 4.5 yards per carry, and then exploded for 2,305 yards at 4.6 yards per carry in 2019 (regular season only). In 2020 the rushing statistics regressed some to 1,889 yards and 4.3 yards per carry, though injuries played a considerable part in that. 

And Mike McGlinchey played a significant role in the increase in rushing yards and the success of the 49ers ground game. Directional rushing statistics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats outlines the following yards per carry for the 49ers rushing to the right side since 2017:

2017: 4.2 (yards per carry) behind RG, 3.1 behind RT, 3.3 outside RT

2018: 2.8 behind RG, 4.7 behind RT, 5.8 outside RT

2019: 3.2 behind RG, 6.7 behind RT, 5.8 outside RT

2020: 4.9 behind RG, 4.3 behind RT, 7.4 outside RT

The 49ers success running behind or outside the RT increased significantly following the transition from Brown to McGlinchey. While part of this also comes down to the supporting cast, there is little doubt that McGlinchey has proven himself to be an excellent run blocking RT and one of the best run blocking OTs in the NFL over the past three seasons. 

However, despite McGlinchey's success as a run blocker, he has found less success in the passing game. While different services will likely give different statistics and grades for individual OL, McGlinchey has been credited with approximately 5 sacks in each of his three seasons and around 35 to 40 pressures allowed each season. And according to PFF (which is admittedly a questionable grading system), his pass blocking grades the past three season have been 64.2 in 2018, 67.1 in 2019 and 58.3 last season. 

As a pass blocker, McGlinchey has been a downgrade from what Trent Brown provided. And with the passing game now widely considered across the league to be critical to team success, pass blocking is generally considered to be more important than run blocking (though given the way Shanahan runs his scheme it would appear the 49ers do not follow this line of thought). 

Of concern, McGlinchey has not shown consistent signs of improving as a pass blocker. In fact, after a marginal improvement in 2019, his pass blocking appeared to regress in 2020. 

Part of the reason for this regression may have been weight related. When McGlinchey arrived at camp last offseason many people noted how much weight it appeared McGlinchey had lost. The "CEO" had transformed into the "Big Slim", as Richard Sherman labelled him, and according to McGlinchey himself he was under 300lbs last season. The idea behind the weight loss was to improve his fit within the outside zone scheme, by increasing his mobility. He may have been correct about the fit within the running game - as outlined above the team's yards per carry outside the RT were the highest in the Shanahan era and McGlinchey earned his highest ever run blocking grade from PFF. 

However, it caused a number of issues in pass protection. "Big Slim" struggled to anchor against the bull rush all season, finding himself on skates numerous times and on his backside on more than one occasion. Being thrown to the ground by DEs is never a good look for an OT, and when it happens repeatedly there is a problem. The problem was exacerbated when he was unable to set his feet before the defender got into his body, as he didn't have the weight behind him to stall the rush, re-establish his balance and drop anchor. To compensate, over the course of the season McGlinchey started to set his feet too early in anticipation of the bull rush only to then be beaten around the edge by speed or counter moves. All in all, it was a torrid affair for McGlinchey in pass protection all season long as he was unable to find consistency.  

At the end of the season both John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan noted McGlinchey's weight was a concern and may have contributed to his struggles in the passing game, and that they would discuss with McGlinchey his "ideal" weight for 2021. McGlinchey appeared to resist the idea directly after the season, indicating his weight was not the issue. However, based on pictures of the players at the current camp activities it would seem McGlinchey has taken the guidance on board as he looks noticeably heavier. 

The 49ers showed faith in McGlinchey this offseason, picking up his fifth year option after the draft. To repay that faith it will be important for McGlinchey to start showing signs of improvement in pass protection while continuing to excel in the running game. And there is a possibility that if he doesn't improve in pass protection his weakness will be magnified. Last season his poor play in pass protection was somewhat hidden by the even worse play at center and RG. This offseason the 49ers have brought in Alex Mack, Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore, which should significantly improve the interior of the OL and put more pressure on McGlinchey to hold up his end of the line. 

If McGlinchey lifts his game in pass protection there is a real possibility the 49ers offensive line could be one of the best units in the NFL this season, which would go a long way to the 49ers returning to a dominant rushing attack like we saw in 2019 and keep the 49ers QB clean to take advantage of the opportunities Shanahan can scheme up. 

The pressure's on, Mike.

Thursday, May 27, 2021

General/Open Discussion Thursday

 ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell on Monday, May 24, wrote that he expects Sherman will sign a one-year contract with San Francisco worth $4 million. 


NFL insider Josina Anderson on Monday reported San Francisco had preliminary talks with free agent WR Dede Westbrook.




Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Jeff Wilson Jr out 4-6 months

By Scooter_McG

The season hasn't started yet and already the injury news is starting to break. It has just been reported that Jeff Wilson Jr, who signed a $2.05M fully guaranteed contract this offseason, recently underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus and will miss 4-6 months as he recovers. As a result he is expected to miss the start of the season (and may miss considerably more than that). 

Wilson is coming off his best season in the NFL. In 2020 he led the team with 600 rushing yards at an average of 4.8 yards per carry and 7 TDs. He also added 13 receptions for 133 yards and a further 3 TDs. 

It is unclear when Wilson was injured or how at this stage, and whether the team knew of the injury before re-signing him or before drafting two RBs. But it would seem unlikely the team would pay $2.05M fully guaranteed for a RB they knew would miss a large portion of the season, and the decision to sign Gallman just before the draft and then select two RBs suggests the 49ers were aware of the injury ahead of the draft. 

Wilson's injury is a blow for the 49ers as he was expected to reprise his role as one of the primary RBs on the roster in 2021. However, the additions of Gallman, Sermon and Mitchell will go a long way to filling the gap left by his absence, and may make Wilson expendable even when he is fully recovered.  

***Update: John Lynch has said Wilson injured his knee at the team facility last week... getting up from a chair. The team's freak injury luck is already in mid-season form.

Monday, May 24, 2021

San Francisco Jones?

 

Tyler Dragon
@TheTylerDragon
·
Julio Jones when asked if he's going back to the Falcons on Undisputed: "I'm out of there." He also said he doesn't want to play for the Cowboys.

Sounds as if we won't be seeing Julio down by the Atlanta field anytime soon. He wants to play for a winner. Should we make the move?



Sunday, May 23, 2021

Examining the fit: Bennie Fowler

By Scooter_McG

Farewell, Marqise Lee, we barely knew you. Less than a week after the 49ers signed him, Lee was waived by the team injured, leaving more question marks at the WR position. The 49ers made a corresponding move to replace him with FA WR Bennie Fowler, a journeyman backup WR who played for the Saints last season. 

The team clearly recognises a need for depth and competition heading into the offseason program and training camp, with considerable uncertainty regarding the WR group after Deebo and Aiyuk. And for the time being the team appears content to bargain hunt.

Fowler is a bigger bodied WR at 6'1" and 210lbs. He comes to the team having played in 68 career games over six seasons, with 97 total catches for 1,101 yards and 6 TDs. His best season was in 2017 at the Broncos when he grabbed 29 catches for 350 yards and 3 TDs. However, since then he has largely bounced between the 53 and practice squad rosters for the Giants and Saints, and last year also missed a large part of the season with a shoulder injury. Fowler's primary contribution has come on special teams coverage units. 

Fowler brings a veteran presence to the 49ers WR group that could potentially be an option as a 5th or 6th WR, or on the practice squad. However, at nearly 30 years old Fowler is not a player for the future or someone that is likely to take the next step. This signing looks very much like a minicamp/ training camp body signing that became necessary after Lee was waived. I suspect the team will be continuing to look at options to add to the WR group. 

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Top 5 Positions Of Strength

 1. Running back. With Sermon, Mostert, Wilson, Mitchell and Gallman there's never been a stronger room.

2. Defensive line. With the return of Bosa the defensive line is deep with talent even without Dee Ford, who hasn't been ruled out yet. 

3. Offensive line. I fully expect McGlinchey to excel this year when a familiar face is to his left. Banksy is a big upgrade over the undrafted Brunskill, who may be the 49ers choice to be Mack's apprentice. 

4. Linebacker. Warner/Greenlaw are about as good as it gets, and Al-Shaair is still ascending. 

5. Tight End. Kittle is the best in the game, and Dwelley catches every ball thrown his way. After that there's question marks. Maybe Ertz gets cut and they sign him for a Reed type contract like they did last year.




Friday, May 21, 2021

Lee Waived Bye Bye

 




Fowler? Fowler?

The #49ers have signed WR Bennie Fowler to a one-year deal and waived WR Marqise Lee.








Thursday, May 20, 2021

Let's Make A Deal

 


Let's assume the two running backs the 49ers drafted this year come into camp with a mindset 180 degrees opposite of the last one they drafted. That means they could have the luxury of trading, Mostert or Wilson as part of a package for a wide receiver or tight end. Two position groups that could use strengthening. Mostert for Ertz anyone?





 

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Examining the fit: Marqise Lee

By Scooter_McG

Marqise Lee was offered a trial at the 49ers recent rookie minicamp, and parlayed that trial into a contract. Lee now joins a WR unit that has a lot of question marks after starting WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Lee's 174 career receptions for 2,184 yards and 8 TDs makes him the third most accomplished WR on the 49ers behind only veteran receivers Mohamed Sanu (who likely will struggle to make the 53 after failing to secure himself a long term spot on the roster last season) and speedster Travis Benjamin. Lee is probably the most talented WR on the roster after the starting pair of Samuel and Aiyuk as well, after a standout college career at USC as well as recording two straight seasons (2016 and 2017) of over 55 catches and 700 yards in the NFL while playing for the Jaguars. Those seasons secured Lee a four year extension worth up to $34 million with the Jaguars, though he failed to see beyond two years of that contract as injuries kept him off the field. 

And therein lies the problem with Lee - aside from those two seasons, Lee's career (both in college and the NFL) has been constantly beset by injury. In addition to missing all of 2018 and the majority of 2019, Lee missed large parts of both his rookie (2014) and sophomore (2015) seasons. He also played through injuries in 2016 and 2017. And in 2020, Lee opted out due to COVID, meaning Lee has only played in six games (all in 2019) since the 2017 season. 

If and when healthy, Lee offers a nice skillset that suits Kyle Shanahan's offense. He's excellent after the catch and is quicker on the field than his combine testing numbers suggest. He's not really a deep threat - he's best in the short to intermediate areas of the field - but he can be effective separating underneath and making plays with the ball in hand. And he can play any of the receiver positions, and provides good blocking ability for a WR, which are big components for Shanahan's offense. Lee also provides potential to help the return game with experience as both a kick and punt returner.  

If fully healthy, the fit here is pretty easy to see. But is he the same player he was three to four years ago? This is a low risk, potentially high reward type signing at a position that currently looks pretty thin on experience and reliable options if Samuel or Aiyuk were to get injured. If he shows signs of being the player he was in 2016 and 2017, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee make the team as the third WR, but he will be defying the odds to do so and it will likely be an uphill battle for him to make the final roster. 

Sunday, May 16, 2021

General/Open Discussion Sunday


 Lance-alot looked good in camp. Not many talking about Marquise Lee's chances to make the roster. Could be a dark horse.

Friday, May 14, 2021

Pressure's on: Emmanuel Moseley. Stepping out of the shadow of Sherman

By Scooter_McG 

In 2019, the 49ers were arguably the best passing defense in the NFL, leading the league in many pass defense measures. Richard Sherman locked down one CB spot for the majority of the season and allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap (0.44 yards) in the league. The other outside CB spot was something of a revolving door between Witherspoon and Moseley. Witherspoon started the season on fire but succumbed to injury early on, opening the door for Moseley to step in (after a brief and unsuccessful series for Jason Verrett before he too re-injured himself). Moseley filled in admirably, but made way for Witherspoon once he was healthy again. 

However, Witherspoon struggled on his return and after some to-ing and fro-ing the team brought Moseley back into the starting line up during the playoffs. In total Moseley made 9 starts in the regular season and 2 in the playoffs (the NFCCG and Super Bowl), while also seeing significant snaps in a few other games. 

Moseley's consistent and strong level of play was an important factor in the team's overall rankings against the pass. And with teams regularly avoiding Sherman for most of the season, Moseley was tested often and for the most part held up to the test well. During the regular season he gave up 31 receptions on 58 targets for 392 yards and 2 TDs, and came away with 1 INT and 8 passes defensed. For the most part did not allow many big plays in his coverage. His performance during the playoffs was possibly even more impressive - while he gave up 17 receptions on 24 targets through 2.5 games, he kept the damage to a minimum allowing 164 yards and no TDs with 1 INT. 

It was a highly promising season for Moseley that had many believing Moseley was primed for a big season in 2020. He came into the off-season leading the competition to start opposite Sherman, and he successfully held off competition from Verrett and Witherspoon during training camp. 

However, while the 49ers pass defense remained strong in 2020 (ranking in the top 5 in a number of categories), the 2020 season did not go quite as either the 49ers or Moseley would have hoped as both the team and Moseley dealt with bouts of injury and inconsistency. 

When Sherman went down early in the year and Verrett took over, many expected Verrett would be the CB opponents would look to pick on. However, it quickly became clear that Verrett was returning to pre-injuries form, while Moseley was showing signs of being susceptible to giving up plays. As a result teams continued looking to attack Moseley with high frequency. Moseley also dealt with a concussion early in week 3 which then kept him out of the next two games, and a hamstring strain in week 12 against the Rams which kept him out of two more games. Following his return in week 15 Moseley was unable to regain his starting role, as Witherspoon was favoured to close out the season.   

Despite playing fewer games and fewer snaps, Moseley still allowed 33 receptions on 56 targets on the season for 420 yards and 4 TDs, with 1 INT and 9 passes defensed. Moseley's stats were reasonably similar to his 2019 numbers for the most part, but his receptions per target and coverage snap went up, as did the yards per reception and target, and he gave up twice as many TDs. While not bad, given the promise he showed in 2019 it was a disappointing season for Moseley where he failed to build on the momentum of a strong 2019 campaign. 

Moving into 2021, Moseley, Jason Verrett and Dontae Johnson are the only outside CBs with any significant playing time in the NFL, as Richard Sherman was not re-signed and Witherspoon left for the Seahawks. Verrett is all but certain to return as one starting CB, following an excellent season last year. The other starting spot will be Moseley's to lose, and the 49ers will be hoping he is able to return to his 2019 form. 

The 49ers showed their faith in Moseley by giving him a 2 year, $9.4M deal this off-season, making him the only veteran CB on the roster signed beyond 2021. And the team had better hope their faith is rewarded, as they waited until pick 102 to add another CB to the roster in the draft. Unless another CB is signed before the season (and rumours are the team is in talks with Richard Sherman), if Moseley does not perform to expectation the team will be left relying on their rookie or the likes of Dontae Johnson to pick up the slack.   

So the 49ers really need Moseley to step up in 2021. The pressure's on, Emmanuel. 

Thursday, May 13, 2021

The Omen In Detroit

 


The only two times the 49ers have previously opened the season in Detroit, 1981 and 1984, they’ve gone on to win the Super Bowl. I see no reason to believe this year will be any different. How do you see it?








Wednesday, May 12, 2021

SF 49ers NFL 2021 17 Week Schedule




Week 1: at Detroit Lions, 1:00 p.m., FOX, Sunday, September 12


Week 2: at Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 p.m., FOX, Sunday, September 19


Week 3: vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBC, Sunday, September 26


Week 4: vs. Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., FOX, Sunday, October 3


Week 5: at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m., FOX, Sunday, October 10


Week 6: BYE


Week 7: vs. Indianapolis Colts, 8:20 p.m., NBC, Sunday, October 24


Week 8: at Chicago Bears, 1:00 p.m., FOX, Sunday, October 31


Week 9: vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m., FOX, Sunday, November 7


Week 10: vs. Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m., ESPN, Monday, November 15


Week 11: at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 p.m., FOX, Sunday, November 21


Week 12: vs. Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m., FOX, Sunday, November 28


Week 13: at Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 p.m., NBC, Sunday, December 5


Week 14: at Cincinnati Bengals, 1:00 p.m., CBS, Sunday, December 12


Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons, 4:05 p.m., CBS, Sunday, December 19


Week 16: at Tennessee Titans, 8:20 p.m., NFLN, Thursday, December 23


Week 17: vs. Houston Texans, 4:05 p.m., CBS, Sunday, December 2


Week 18: at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m., FOX, Sunday, December 9




Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Pressure's on: Javon Kinlaw. Revisiting the trade of DeForest Buckner

By Scooter_McG

In the 2020 offseason, the 49ers traded away one of their best defensive players in DeForest Buckner for the 13th pick of the 2020 draft. The reasoning given by the 49ers front office was an inability to fit his contract demands within the salary cap, and a desire to keep as much of their 2019 roster together which required the cap space that would otherwise be dedicated to Buckner. 

Getting pick 13 in return was seen as an opportunity to replace Buckner with a similarly skilled player at a smaller budget, which the 49ers did not believe they would get in return for other players (e.g. Armstead).

The logic seemed sound to many at the time, but looking back a strong argument can be made that the team could likely have structured Buckner's deal in a similar fashion to Armstead's to keep him (instead of Armstead) at around the same cap hit. And the cold, hard reality is that replacing a Pro Bowl/ All Pro calibre talent isn't easy, and often times a group of good players are not worth one dominant player. While the team would not have gotten a first round pick in return for Armstead, to make the decision to keep Armstead instead of Buckner work in the 49ers favour they need the players they kept/ acquired to offer more than keeping Buckner would have. 

Some arguments can be made that keeping Armstead over Buckner allowed the team to retain Jimmie Ward. But there probably isn't much truth to this - as alluded to above the team could have structured Buckner's deal to also be able to re-sign Ward. Which means the difference between keeping Armstead and Buckner really comes down to those two players, and pick #13 vs whatever they may have gotten for Armstead. 

Pick 13 was used to get draft capital that allowed them to draft Aiyuk, and I think it is fair to argue that whatever Armstead would have returned could have been used for the same trade up - so really it comes down to trading Buckner allowed them to keep Armstead and draft Javon Kinlaw. 

Armstead is a good player, don't get me wrong, but he's also a calibre of player that can be found in free agency for less than the 49ers are paying him pretty much every year. Buckner on the other hand was a first team All Pro in 2020, after being a Pro Bowler and 2nd team All Pro in 2019 with the 49ers. There is, quite frankly, no comparison between the two - Armstead can shine when surrounded by talent while Buckner excels even when he is the focal point for offenses to plan against. 

Which means, for the 49ers trade of Buckner to be a "win" for the 49ers, they really need the player they selected with the first round pick they got in return to play at a similarly high level. Kinlaw's rookie season showed flashes of promise, but he was far from providing consistent periods of dominant play. His season was... ok. He had 33 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 4 passes knocked down, an INT (for a TD), 19 pressures and 20 defensive stops. While these numbers are ok for a rotational DT, and decent for a rookie DL, they are far from great and not as good as what Buckner provided as a rookie in 2016. A significant leap in performance, consistency and production will be required in Year 2 in order to start living up to the legacy of being Buckner's replacement. 

The good news for 49er fans is the 49ers front office and coaching staff all seem to strongly believe Kinlaw has it in him to be great. John Lynch in January said he believes Kinlaw will become a "dominant force in this league", and Lynch went on to compare Kinlaw to his former teammate Warren Sapp, who also had a decent but underwhelming rookie season before turning into one of the most dominant DTs of his era. 

A surgent sophomore season from Kinlaw would go a long way to making the 49ers DL great again in 2021, and help take the pressure off the likes of Armstead and Ebukam while easing the pressure on Bosa as he works his way back from injury. It would also go a long way to justifying the 49ers trade of Buckner as the right call.

The pressure's on, Javon. 

Sunday, May 9, 2021

Comparing 2019's Roster To 2021's

 



2019 San Francisco 49ers final roster
Quarterbacks

Running backs

Wide receivers

Tight ends

Offensive linemen

Defensive linemen

Linebackers

Defensive backs

Special teams

Reserve lists

2021 San Francisco 49ers roster
Quarterbacks

Running backs

Wide receivers

Tight ends

Offensive linemen

Defensive linemen

Linebackers

Defensive backs

Special teams


I thought it'd be interesting to compare our Super Bowl roster with our current roster, and get an early feel for which position groups were either upgraded or weakened. Let's begin with the quarterback room. Clearly an upgrade by swapping out, Mullens and Beathard for, Lance and Sufeld.

The running back room is clearly an upgrade by swapping out, Coleman for Sermon and Breida for Gallman and Mitchell.

The wide receiver room lost Sanders and replaced him with Aiyuk. Lost Bourne but have Hurd to take his place. I would call this a push.

The tight end position is basically the same as the 2019 roster. 

The offensive line group has clearly been upgraded. Williams>Staley, Mack>Garland, Banksy>Person. 

Defensive line group was weakened by the injuries to Bosa and Ford. While this years group looks a little deeper, it clearly isn't the same without those two players. Unless they recapture their 2019 magic, this group is weaker on paper.

Linebacker group is pretty much the same. Another push. 

Cornerback position lost Sherman while adding Verrett. No Witherspoon, no problem with Moseley and two draft picks. I'll go with another push here but I think Verrett is playing better today than Sherman was in 2019. 

Safety is unchanged but it looks as though Hufanga could be an upgrade over Harris. Another push. 

Special teams have been upgraded with a new long snapper.


Summing up, on paper it looks as though this team has enough talent, if able to remain healthy, to have a legitimate shot of getting back to the Super Bowl. Do you agree?

Players Of Interest #31

We're one week away from the 49ers making their first 1st round selection since 2021. Who are the three most likely suspects which have ...