In 2019, the 49ers were arguably the best passing defense in the NFL, leading the league in many pass defense measures. Richard Sherman locked down one CB spot for the majority of the season and allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap (0.44 yards) in the league. The other outside CB spot was something of a revolving door between Witherspoon and Moseley. Witherspoon started the season on fire but succumbed to injury early on, opening the door for Moseley to step in (after a brief and unsuccessful series for Jason Verrett before he too re-injured himself). Moseley filled in admirably, but made way for Witherspoon once he was healthy again.
However, Witherspoon struggled on his return and after some to-ing and fro-ing the team brought Moseley back into the starting line up during the playoffs. In total Moseley made 9 starts in the regular season and 2 in the playoffs (the NFCCG and Super Bowl), while also seeing significant snaps in a few other games.
Moseley's consistent and strong level of play was an important factor in the team's overall rankings against the pass. And with teams regularly avoiding Sherman for most of the season, Moseley was tested often and for the most part held up to the test well. During the regular season he gave up 31 receptions on 58 targets for 392 yards and 2 TDs, and came away with 1 INT and 8 passes defensed. For the most part did not allow many big plays in his coverage. His performance during the playoffs was possibly even more impressive - while he gave up 17 receptions on 24 targets through 2.5 games, he kept the damage to a minimum allowing 164 yards and no TDs with 1 INT.
It was a highly promising season for Moseley that had many believing Moseley was primed for a big season in 2020. He came into the off-season leading the competition to start opposite Sherman, and he successfully held off competition from Verrett and Witherspoon during training camp.
However, while the 49ers pass defense remained strong in 2020 (ranking in the top 5 in a number of categories), the 2020 season did not go quite as either the 49ers or Moseley would have hoped as both the team and Moseley dealt with bouts of injury and inconsistency.
Despite playing fewer games and fewer snaps, Moseley still allowed 33 receptions on 56 targets on the season for 420 yards and 4 TDs, with 1 INT and 9 passes defensed. Moseley's stats were reasonably similar to his 2019 numbers for the most part, but his receptions per target and coverage snap went up, as did the yards per reception and target, and he gave up twice as many TDs. While not bad, given the promise he showed in 2019 it was a disappointing season for Moseley where he failed to build on the momentum of a strong 2019 campaign.
Moving into 2021, Moseley, Jason Verrett and Dontae Johnson are the only outside CBs with any significant playing time in the NFL, as Richard Sherman was not re-signed and Witherspoon left for the Seahawks. Verrett is all but certain to return as one starting CB, following an excellent season last year. The other starting spot will be Moseley's to lose, and the 49ers will be hoping he is able to return to his 2019 form.
The 49ers showed their faith in Moseley by giving him a 2 year, $9.4M deal this off-season, making him the only veteran CB on the roster signed beyond 2021. And the team had better hope their faith is rewarded, as they waited until pick 102 to add another CB to the roster in the draft. Unless another CB is signed before the season (and rumours are the team is in talks with Richard Sherman), if Moseley does not perform to expectation the team will be left relying on their rookie or the likes of Dontae Johnson to pick up the slack.
So the 49ers really need Moseley to step up in 2021. The pressure's on, Emmanuel.
My biggest surprise in the 2021 draft was the 9ers drafting OG (Banks), opposed to a CB in the 2nd Rd. Not that I'm against drafting banks, but CB is still a position of need for the 9ers 2021 season. There are rumors the 9ers are taking with Sherman, but Steeler free agent Steven Nelson is still available and would likely sign a one year deal for less than Sherman. Nelson is 28 Y/O and the top rated FA CB still available to be signed. He would provide insurance against Verrett and Williams’ injury histories.
ReplyDeleteFA CB Brian Pool is also available and would likely also sign a one year contract. At 5'9" he's strictly a slot CB, but would provide insurance in case of a K'Waun Williams injury.
I wasn't surprised the team waited until round 3 for a CB, but I certainly didn't expect the team to take an OG and RB before a CB. I still think the team will add a CB before the season starts, one with starting experience. Probably not Nelson though, who is more a slot CB.
DeleteSherman obviously is a possibility, but the salary has to be right and he has to be willing to compete for a starting job rather than have it given to him (and accept being a backup if that is how it shakes out).
I think a more realistic target should be Gareon Conley, but looks like nobody wants to touch him. So may be the injury issues are a big concern.
Scooter
DeleteNot sure why you think Steve Nelson is "more" a slot CB?
He did play NCB at Oregon, but was drafted by KC in 2015 as a CB that could play inside or outside.
KC 2015 his rookie year, lists Nelson as RCB back up to starting RCB Sean Smith.
KC 2016-2017 Depth chart lists Nelson as starting LCB opposite Marcus Peter. KC 2018 depth chart lists Nelson as starting LCB opposite Kendal Fuller. Steelers 2019-2020 Nelson was starting CB opposite Mike Hilton.
Other than Oregon, when did Nelson play the Slot CB position?
I think sometimes people make too much of whether a guys is a mid 2nd or mid 3rd round pick. I tend to lump most of those day 2 guys together, unless a guy who I have a clear 1st round pick grade drops out of the first.
DeleteThey probably had a few day 2 guys they liked, so they looked for the value. I am all about value, as opposed to targeting by position, because you tend to lose value if you aren't flexible enough to do both
You guys ought to check out Eric Crocker's breakdown of Ambry Thomas' game tape VS Chase Claypool, if you haven't already.
Aubry Thomas has all of the tools, and already excels in both press and off-coverage. Fast, great hips, physical kid, who knows how to do the little things right. Clearly well coached.
And they drafted a real scrapper at slot corner as well, and the kid already has his first practice INT.
DeletePoint is that they have their three starters. They drafted two promising CB prospects, and they have a few other raw, but athletic guys they have been trying to develop.
DeleteWorst comes to worst, John picks up a phone and calls Uncle Sherm!
No worries there. Besides, we know it's not going to matter if they can't pressure the QB.
And if they can pressure the QB, they will likely be better than fine.
DeleteMark my words: Ambry Thomas is an eventual starter, and a very good one, and Lenior is a prototypical slot corner!
DeleteAmbry for sure ends up starting on the outside eventually. He's also a very willing tackler, so it's all there for him in particular.
If Verrett and Williams stay healthy, their secondary is for sure set this season, we know that as fact.
Delete- Mosely (UDFA), Thomas (Rnd 3), Johnson (Rnd 4)
- Verrett (Rnd 1), Thomas (Rnd 3) Harris Jr (Rnd 4)
- Williams (UFDA), Lenior (Rnd 5)
Both undrafted CB's have proven reliable. Williams is one of the top ranked slot CB in the NFL, and Mosely has played pretty well except for one stretch following a hard concussion.
GEEP, you're right on Nelson, my bad. Will be interesting to see where he ends up... and at what price.
Delete49Reasons
DeleteGood to see you showing a little PASSION for something other than QB....
Can't argue with you about the 9ers drafting CB Ambry Thomas. Given some coaching and time to adjust to the speed of the NFL and I'll agree he'll likely be a 9er starter (next year). I'll also agree with you about day two picks. It often depends more on team system fit rather than targeting for position. (Draft the BPA).
My point with respect to FA CB Steve Nelson, is he is a proven NFL CB that fits the 9ers D system and would be a plug and play if either Verrett or Williams are injured. I'm not sure I want a rookie playing in a game that determines if the 9ers make the playoffs or not.
Hey GEEP, yah, I went through a sort of recovery after the draft, and took some time to reflect.
DeleteI hear you about CB depth GEEP, and let's face it, playing CB against NFL receivers is one of the toughest position for a rookie.
You're right that they might need to make a move at some point if none of these young guys step up. In that case I could see them making a move to pick up a veteran at some point.
GEEP, how do you feel about bringing Sherman back on a 1 year deal if they think they need to make a move?
Delete49Reason
DeleteIf the price is right and he's willing to be a back up. Not saying he will be, but he'll have to earn it, not expect to have it given to him and I don't know if he's still capable of being a starter. Which also leads to my thinking that he believes if he waits for a CB (9er or some other team), to get injured, they'll pay his price.
My thoughts on Sherman exactly, GEEP.
DeleteI do feel pretty good about the CB's right now, though, and I think the talent might outweigh the experience.
CB depth is a real concern. The odds that Verrett makes it through an entire season are not good. The team definitely needs to avoid a situation like last year where they threw in Allen in the Miami game and Fitzpatrick torched him over and over and over again (I still can't forgive Saleh for allowing that to happen without at least trying something different; IIRC Witherspoon did eventually come in but it was too late).
ReplyDeleteThat's what worries me cubus. A lot of faith being shown in a guy that has had one healthy year in 6 and a guy that showed promise in 2019 but took a step back last season and eventually got benched. And if it doesn’t work out, they are relying on rookies picked in triple digits and a true journeyman. It may work out just fine... but it looks a big risk to me.
DeleteI see us blitzing from anywhere and everywhere while playing more man than zone. That's why in no way shape or fashion do I see us resigning Dick Charmin.
ReplyDeleteI doubt Ryans will completely change philosophy. Part of the reason for promoting him will have been continuity.
DeleteSo yes, they may blitz a little more and may play a little more man, but I doubt there are drastic changes.
The offense has a chance to be scary good. If that's the case, that should mean the Niners are putting up lots of points. The only way the other team can keep up is by passing the ball...pass rush needs to be awesome and should help out the secondary.
ReplyDeleteUC
Delete"The offense has a chance to be scary good,"
I agree, "IF" JG stays healthy.
The 9ers also now have 3 mobile QB in the division that give the 9ers problems.
If that's the case it just puts more pressure on the secondary, which currently looks a little depth deficient at CB.
DeleteBut the D also has the potential to be scary good as well- with the explosiveness on the Edge and reinforcements in the middle, and if Ward and Verrett remain healthy, the D can be outstanding.
DeleteI think the 9ers will sign Sherman, for very little money. I too believe the team plans to be a primarily man coverage team. If there are injuries and Thomas and Lenior aren't able to step in then Sherman will start and they will go back to being a primarily zone team. It won't make a huge difference as long as they are getting good pressure on the QB.
ReplyDeleteNo way in hell they sign him. He can't run. Any interest by the 49ers has been manufactured by Sherman. If he's interested in an entry level coaching position, absolutely; that goes for Frank Gore as well. I want Frank as the heir to Bobby Turner and scout.
DeleteOldCoach
DeleteYou may be right? But if the rumors are true, and the 9er FO has talked to Sherman, he still hasn't signed a contract....Doesn't that tell you he wants more money than the 9ers are willing to pay, especially if they see him as a back up because as razor says, "he can't run!"
Teams may not sign FAs till the beginning of TC as they evaluate the ones they have in the OTAs.
DeleteWhy the belief the team will play primarily man?
DeleteSaleh clearly favoured zone, and I doubt Ryans was promoted with the idea he would drastically shift the paradigm. And the players they have aren't suited to a lot of man outside of the rookie Thomas.
It may be something they evolve into over a few years, but I would be very surprised if they became a primarily man team this year.
Bettcher is known for running a Press-man Cover 1 scheme in the secondary. This means the cornerbacks will play man-coverage while lining up on the line of scrimmage. They will jam or press wide receivers to throw off the timing. In this scheme, the safeties play zone-coverage most of the time.
Deletei look for Ryans to use Tartt and the Shark up on the line more to blitz.
That's true, I had forgotten they added Bettcher to the coaching staff. But I still doubt it will be wholesale changes to the scheme from what we have seen.
DeleteThat's a good picture of Moseley, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteWe're going to want to see more flexing from him this year!
DeleteGood summary of the CB situation, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteI was not overly surprised that Moseley's production took a dip since it mirrors the pass rush. I think Moseley will do better this season with Bosa back. He lacks the top end coverage skills on the outside that Verrett has. Bur he's serviceable, and I expect Thomas to be a serviceable backup both outside and to K'Waun.
However, unlike Razor, I won't be shocked if Sherm returns on an one year $3M-or-so deal.
I don't think Sherman fits what this defense will be moving forward. A predominantly man cover defense with more blitzes from various players from various spots on the field.
DeleteMoseley's play took a dip and that can be linked to the pass rush, but that then just goes to show he impressive Verrett was.
DeleteAs you say, Moseley is serviceable. With a dominant pass rush I would expect his play to improve. But if he struggles the team is probably going to need to rush Thomas into action unless they add a FA.
Rookie minicamp starts today. Could use a LanceCam. Lance turned 21 last Sunday. Amazing to think that Lance was born the year Brady was drafted.
ReplyDeleteHappy 38th birthday, Frank!
https://twitter.com/49ers/status/1393297842400206849
DeleteMost pleasing thing I saw re Lance at practice - the big dip he had before throwing in college appears to have been ironed out. Should go a ways to improving his consistency in terms of accuracy.
Delete@Scooter: Is there any video of the rookie minicamp?
DeleteOnly a few clips on Twitter, mainly posted by the beat reporters.
DeleteVery encouraging news re Lance. Thanks, and thanks for the article.
ReplyDelete8 Takeaways from Trey Lance and 49ers Rookie Minicamp
ReplyDeletehttps://sports.yahoo.com/m/3ff01ece-cd45-3bbd-92f9-570de8ff939f/8-takeaways-from-trey-lance.html
Dieter Kurtenbach article on the Minicamp. Always enjoy his commentary.
ReplyDelete"I have seen the future of the 49ers. He is 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, and has an arm that made me say “wow” more than a few times Friday afternoon.
The footwork is preposterously clean, too. Lance just turned 21. How could someone that young be that refined with his lower half?
And his arm motion — which had a tendency to get long at North Dakota State — was appreciably tighter in person."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/05/14/kurtenbach-the-first-glance-of-trey-lance-things-are-about-to-get-fun-for-the-49ers/
Some video of Lance and the first day of rookie mini-camp.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind this is Grant Cohn and his usual psycho battle.
If you're like me, turn off the sound and watch the tape.
https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/the-good-and-not-so-good-from-the-49ers-rookie-mini-camp