Thursday, March 5, 2026

DT By The Numbers


 

67 comments:

  1. 2026 NFL Draft WR prospects who averaged the most yards after catch per reception in 2025, per TruMedia:

    🍿 Kendrick Law, Kentucky - 9.5
    🍿 Skyler Bell, UConn - 8.3
    🍿 Zachariah Branch, UGA - 7.8
    🍿 Romello Brinson, SMU - 7.3
    🍿 KC Concepcion, TX A&M - 7.2
    🍿 Omar Cooper Jr, Indiana - 7.2
    🍿 Emmanuel Henderson Jr, KU - 7.0
    🍿 Kole Wilson, Baylor - 6.9
    🍿 Jalil Farooq, Maryland - 6.8
    🍿 Jordan Hudson, SMU - 6.4
    🍿 Makai Lemon, USC - 6.4

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  2. How I expect the first 3 Rounds to unfold:

    1st round OL run
    2nd round EDGE and WR run
    3rd round S/iOL/WR

    The sweet spot 50-75 should provide solid starters, but the Edge, CB and WR you draft at 75 will likely be graded almost exactly the same as the one you’d get at 45. Adjust strategy accordingly....

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  3. I’m waiting until free agency signings before committing to the draft. Right now, I’m all in on drafting defense, though that could change depending on the FA signings. The Niners’ defense was terrible last year, and you’re not going to beat the Hawks or the Rams with an offense-focused draft. Those two teams are currently the standard not just in the West, but across the entire NFC. ATM-IMO

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    Replies
    1. My contention is F/A shouldn't affect how you draft. Doubling up at the premium positions makes a lot of sense. Especially when you're not targeting top dollar F/A's.

      With the 1st pick in Round 4 I would target C/OG and with the 2nd Round 4 pick I would target a TE. They'll need to use the first 3 picks on an OT (if they want one), WR and Edge.

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    2. I think it does to a degree. If you go out and get a player like Crosby, you are not going to use a high draft pick on an edge. I am not advocating to get Crosby, that is just an example.

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    3. "Especially when you're not targeting top dollar F/A's".

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    4. I'd add we traded a 2nd rounder for Dee Ford and drafted Bosa.

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    5. I think it's fair to say FA will impact the draft to some degree. By all reports the 49ers are expected to be active in FA and will target some decent starting calibre players. Should impact what their needs are.

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  4. The 49ers were among the five-most injured teams in the NFL in 2025:

    The annual “Adjusted Games Lost” article came out today and according to adjusted games lost, the 49ers lost the sixth-most offensive games and fifth-most defensive games due to injuries. This comes after a season when the 49ers were the most injured team in the NFL in 2024.

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  5. Eight-time Pro-Bowl DE Cameron Jordan, who has spent his 15-year career in New Orleans and had 10.5 sacks last season, will not have a new deal in place with New Orleans by next week and now will hit free agency for the first time in his NFL career, per sources. Jordan will play a 16th NFL season and is said to be open to leaving New Orleans per Schefter.

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  6. DB Julian Neal is a long, physical corner who wants to disrupt WR's timing at the LOS and can drive and finish on routes developing in front of him in off coverage alignments.

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    Replies
    1. He's got a scary combo of length (32-inch arms) and athleticism (40-inch vert). Competitive player at the catch point who can smother WRs, and was top 10 in the SEC in forced incompletions this past season (8).

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  7. Shanahan will love Boston's catch consistency as he's only had three drops on 198 targets since 2024.👀

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  8. Niners adding Matt Eberflus as an insurance policy. Things you have to do when your staff is pilfered every year.

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    Replies
    1. I'm seeing a few 49ers content creators outlining this likely means they'll largely stick to 4-man fronts this year. Interesting hire.

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    2. You think Morris signed off on it prior to being hired?

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    3. Yeah, they would have discussed all this before he was hired.

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    4. Isn't Eberflus' specialty the Star position? This might confirm they'll be looking for that 250-pound pass rusher that can drop into his spots in coverage.

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    5. I don't think his hiring will have any bearing on Morris runs, tbh. Just like Bradley didn't influence Saleh to revert back to Cover 3. Or Staley didn't influence Wilkes to run a 3-4. I think it's a hire based on adding smart people that are good teachers.

      I found it interesting that a few content creators thought differently, though.

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  9. I would prefer Concepcion because of his quickness at the LOS and crazy YAC ability. But Boston's catch reliability can't be debated. If the 49ers draft him he could be a faster Jauan Jennings.

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  10. How about between Cooper and Boston?

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    Replies
    1. I got Boston over both of those WR's. Shanahan might have Cooper.

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  11. All good WRs, no doubt. Call me crazy, but I'm sticking with Concepcion.
    Interesting, Mel Kiper has the 49ers picking OL, Caleb Lomu at 27. Good thing is, is that we only have a little more than a month away to see where the chips fall.

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  12. Several changes made to PFF 2026 draft prospects big board post combine.
    * WR's Omar Cooper is now at #27 and Denzel Boston #31. Combine results and elite YAC threat have improved Cooper’s draft stock.
    I'm surprised to see USC WR Markai Lemon is at draft pick #15? I doubt he's still a 1st round prospect on most NFL draft boards.

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  13. Fewest yards allowed per reception, 2026 NFL Draft CBs:

    Jadon Canady, Oregon: 6.1 yards
    Malik Muhammad, Texas: 8.0
    Domani Jackson, Alabama: 8.4
    Keionte Scott, Miami (FL): 8.5
    Ephesians Prysock, Washington: 8.6
    DeVonta Smith, Notre Dame: 8.7
    Treydan Stukes, Arizona: 9.3
    DeCarlos Nicholson, USC: 9.3
    Trenton Alan Yowe, Arkansas State: 9.4
    Davison Igbinosun, Ohio State: 9.4
    Jacob Finley, Northern Illinois: 9.4

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  14. AES
    NFL analysts rate both Cooper and Boston ahead of KC Concepcion. Despite being a dynamic playmaker and a threat in the deep game, Concepcion has inconsistent hands and struggled with drops!
    Also, Cooper and Boston's refined route-running.
    Just curious, but why are you "sticking with Concepcion? What is it
    that you like?

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    Replies
    1. Explosive game breaker ability. For me, he's lightning in a bottle and better at YAC. I'm not hating on the WRs mentioned above and as I said, they are all good. My preference just happens to be Concepcion.

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    2. But as I said yesterday. If the TW situation gets sticky, the 49ers might consider a OLman at 27. O'l, Mel Kiper might be on to something with the 49ers picking Lomu, 27.

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    3. AES
      We don't always agree, but normally I understand why you like a player....Just curious why with Concepcion?

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    4. AES
      "THE TW SITUATION"
      Drafting OT Lumu to replace TW is, IMHO, a risk.. His play strength needs to be developed to handle a power-based DE.
      Under KS, the 9ers are a run first offense. I question if, as a rookie, he has the elite functional strength and consistent power required to immediately dominate as a run-blocker at the NFL level?
      IMO, OTs Francis Mauigoa and Kadyn Proctor could start, but
      it would cost the 9ers most, if not all, of their draft pick!


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    5. "Drafting OT Lumu to replace TW is, IMHO, a risk.."
      I hear you GEEP. But at this point there has been no guarantee that TW will stay. So far, him staying is built on assumptions.
      Losing Trent, would present a greater risk if the 49ers aren't pro-active, imho.

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    6. Yep, agreed! I'm disappointed that JL and KS let it get to this point, after the Deebo and Aiyuk contract debacle! And it's not like TW hasn't done if before also! Yet here they are, with little choice but to give in to his demands. And If he can get away
      with it, what's to stop other players from doing the same BS?

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  15. Three free agent WR's that could interest KS and the 9ers.
    Spotract lists Market Value for all 3 at ~$5 mil p/y AAV
    * WR Jalen Nailor: Best ZBS fit of the 3. willing run blocker, vertical speed and has the ability to absorb complex playbooks. Has relatively low career production (69 catches).
    * WR Marquise Brown: Moderate ZBS fit of the 3. Elite deep speed to "scare people on go routes," opening up underneath ZBS lanes. Lacks the physical, "turn into a running back" playstyle Shanahan favors.
    * Calvin Austin III: Low / Moderate ZBS fit of the 3. Top-end speed (4.32 40-yard dash) and versatility as a punt returner. Small size (5'9" 162 lbs), limited effectiveness in physical ZBS blocking assignments

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  16. The 49ers are expected to hire Kent State OL coach Angel Matute, per
    M Zenitz.

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  17. Landon Robinson Pro Day UNOFFICIAL

    Hands 918
    Arms 3168
    Wing 7728
    Height 5112
    Weight 293

    Had he been invited to combine this is how he would rank.
    Bench Press 30 Reps (2nd)
    Vertical 32.5 (6th)
    Broad Jump 9”2’ (9th)
    40 yard 4.8 (3rd)
    20 yard shuttle 4.48 (1st)
    3 Cone Drill 7.32 (1st)

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    Replies
    1. Razor,
      Just saw Robinson's tape. The measureables don't fit the NFL Combine philosophy. But this kid is a serious ball'r. Someone is going to get a good player and possibly a fan favorite.

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  18. Latest rumor from L. Krueger on KNBR this afternoon. The Texans are offering a 2nd round pick for T. Williams

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    Replies
    1. Also, the Texans might be a viable SB contender before the 49ers are.

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    2. I haven't seen anything from Stroud to warrant a franchise contract.

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  19. OldCoach
    Did Krueger say if the Texans were willing to accept his $33 Mil salary, $10 Mil bonus plus a 2nd Rd draft pick?

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    Replies
    1. GEEP,
      I only heard about 10 minutes of the conversation. He only said that he thought that the 49ers are trying to put their cap house in order and extending TW would just put them in the same place they were last year in 28 or so

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    2. Such a move makes sense to some degree if they are looking at it from long term planning and not getting carried away about where they are in terms of retooling despite a good year.

      But man, hard guy to replace.

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    3. I love TW, but I do wish they trade him rather than pay $30M+ for him.

      TW is like a girlfriend who is very beautiful but high maintenance. Always wants to shop at Luxury brands, eat at Michelin 3-Star restaurants and wants a bunch of birkin bags.

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    4. As Mug put it so eloquently, it's time for him to go. Everyone may be replaceable, but finding someone to fill his shoes will be tough.

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  20. Daylen Everette (6’1 196) Georgia

    + Good size and length
    + Ball skills
    + Over 2,400 career snaps played
    + Active hands at the line
    + Physical in run support
    + Athleticism (9.82 RAS)
    + 90.1 run defense grade in 2025
    + 55.9% completion rate allowed against in 2025

    - 19.7% missed tackle rate in 2024, but did improve that to 8.8% in 2025
    - Five penalties in 2025
    - Concerns about his hip flexibility

    Draft projection: 3rd round

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  21. Highest pressure to sack conversion rate, 2026 NFL Draft EDGE:

    Cashius Howell, Texas A&M: 28.0%
    Gabe Jacas, Illinois: 26.2%
    R Mason Thomas, Oklahoma: 26.0%
    Vincent Anthony Jr., Duke: 25.0%
    Caden Curry, Ohio State: 24.4%
    Ckelby Givens, Southern: 24.4%
    Nadame Tucker, Western Michigan: 23.8%
    Derrick Moore, Michigan: 23.8%
    Bryan Thomas Jr., South Carolina: 21.6%
    CJ Nunnally IV, Purdue: 20.8%
    George Gumbs Jr., Florida: 20.8%

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    Replies
    1. What are the chances of Jacas and or Thomas falling to the 49ers 2nd rd pick? Would they be willing to trade up for one of them? Of course, this is just a thought because if the 49ers sign a top FA Edge it changes their draft board.

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  22. Maybe Niners acquire Kaden Elliss, for anyone wondering, was the linebacker for the Falcons during Morris’s tenure.

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  23. You guys crack me up. You complain about the OL and then want to move on from Trent, our best offensive lineman at the most premium position along it.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, moving on from Trent only makes sense if they still see themselves as going through a mini rebuild (which they should), and aren't going all out to win now (which they shouldn't). But even so... who are they replacing him with?

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    2. If you can get rid of Joe Montana and Ronnie Lott and Jerry Rice they surely can move on from TW. Who they going to replace him with, that's huge. Myself I still thinking defense till its fixed I can't move on to offense.

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  24. 49ers met with ASU DB Myles Rowser at the Shrine Bowl. They met with his defensive coordinator at Arizona State to talk about him as well. They have a really strong relationship.

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  25. Dan Graziano say 49ers going to sign Doubs 3 yr/$49 million $30 million guaranteed.

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    Replies
    1. Did he say they will, or that he predicts they will?

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    2. I take it as a prediction. The next step would be to find out how accurate his reporting on such things has been.

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    3. My read of it is he just thinks it would be a good fit. Not something he has any inside info on.

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    4. Both Pierce and Doubs are going to be overpaid. Might say what they think of the WR talent in this draft if they're willing to spend that much.

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  26. Fewest total pressures allowed, 2026 NFL Draft OTs:

    Spencer Fano, Utah: 5 (359 pass-blocking snaps)
    Aamil Wagner, Notre Dame: 7 (318)
    Keagen Trost, Missouri: 7 (412)
    Caleb Lomu, Utah: 8 (360)
    Monroe Freeling, Georgia: 9 (434)
    Izavion Miller, Auburn: 12 (224)
    Jordan Davis, South Alabama: 12 (227)
    Caleb Tiernan, Northwestern: 13 (401)
    Jordan Hall, Tulane: 13 (348)
    Riley Mahlman, Wisconsin: 13 (318)
    Sidney Fugar, Baylor: 13 (308)
    Travis Burke, Memphis: 13 (404)

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  27. 2026 NFL Draft OTs with ZERO sacks allowed last year:

    Diego Pounds, Ole Miss (550 pass-blocking snaps)
    Markel Bell, Miami-FL (501)
    Max Iheanachor, Arizona State (453)
    Corey Robinson II, Arkansas (445)
    Caleb Lomu, Utah (360)
    Spencer Fano, Utah (359)
    Jordan Hall, Tulane (348)
    Jude Bowry, Boston College (311)
    Jordan Davis, South Alabama (227)

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  28. Larry Krueger has gone rogue:

    The smarter move for the #49ers would be to NOT pay 38-year-old LT Trent Williams $50M more and instead save that money, spread it around your roster, and trade him to the Houston Texans for Aireontae Ersery and a day 3 pick. You have to be cold in pro football personnel. Don’t fall in love.
    KC dumped Tyreek Hill and Trent McDuffie
    GB said goodbye to Davante Adams
    Seattle dumped Metcalf and Lockett
    Don’t fall in love with your veteran players. Respect them but embrace the process of separating from them when it’s time. Today It’s time to say goodbye to
    Trent Williams
    Nick Bosa
    Fred Warner
    Brandon Aiyuk
    And Maybe Mac Jones, Renardo Green and Ricky Pearsall too. Trade these vets for a bevy of draft picks and rebuild bigger and better than ever.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, Larry has made some weird comments this offseason. He's acting like the team both is miles away and needs to start over, but also should be competing for the SB this year. Very odd.

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    2. I'm not sure why any team would want more draft picks in an unimpressive draft class such as this one.

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    3. Yeah, not the draft to be trying to stockpile picks or to be trading away blue chippers with an expectation of being able to replace them with similar talent.

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