In the 2020 offseason, the 49ers traded away one of their best defensive players in DeForest Buckner for the 13th pick of the 2020 draft. The reasoning given by the 49ers front office was an inability to fit his contract demands within the salary cap, and a desire to keep as much of their 2019 roster together which required the cap space that would otherwise be dedicated to Buckner.
Getting pick 13 in return was seen as an opportunity to replace Buckner with a similarly skilled player at a smaller budget, which the 49ers did not believe they would get in return for other players (e.g. Armstead).
The logic seemed sound to many at the time, but looking back a strong argument can be made that the team could likely have structured Buckner's deal in a similar fashion to Armstead's to keep him (instead of Armstead) at around the same cap hit. And the cold, hard reality is that replacing a Pro Bowl/ All Pro calibre talent isn't easy, and often times a group of good players are not worth one dominant player. While the team would not have gotten a first round pick in return for Armstead, to make the decision to keep Armstead instead of Buckner work in the 49ers favour they need the players they kept/ acquired to offer more than keeping Buckner would have.
Some arguments can be made that keeping Armstead over Buckner allowed the team to retain Jimmie Ward. But there probably isn't much truth to this - as alluded to above the team could have structured Buckner's deal to also be able to re-sign Ward. Which means the difference between keeping Armstead and Buckner really comes down to those two players, and pick #13 vs whatever they may have gotten for Armstead.
Pick 13 was used to get draft capital that allowed them to draft Aiyuk, and I think it is fair to argue that whatever Armstead would have returned could have been used for the same trade up - so really it comes down to trading Buckner allowed them to keep Armstead and draft Javon Kinlaw.
Armstead is a good player, don't get me wrong, but he's also a calibre of player that can be found in free agency for less than the 49ers are paying him pretty much every year. Buckner on the other hand was a first team All Pro in 2020, after being a Pro Bowler and 2nd team All Pro in 2019 with the 49ers. There is, quite frankly, no comparison between the two - Armstead can shine when surrounded by talent while Buckner excels even when he is the focal point for offenses to plan against.
Which means, for the 49ers trade of Buckner to be a "win" for the 49ers, they really need the player they selected with the first round pick they got in return to play at a similarly high level. Kinlaw's rookie season showed flashes of promise, but he was far from providing consistent periods of dominant play. His season was... ok. He had 33 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 4 passes knocked down, an INT (for a TD), 19 pressures and 20 defensive stops. While these numbers are ok for a rotational DT, and decent for a rookie DL, they are far from great and not as good as what Buckner provided as a rookie in 2016. A significant leap in performance, consistency and production will be required in Year 2 in order to start living up to the legacy of being Buckner's replacement.
The good news for 49er fans is the 49ers front office and coaching staff all seem to strongly believe Kinlaw has it in him to be great. John Lynch in January said he believes Kinlaw will become a "dominant force in this league", and Lynch went on to compare Kinlaw to his former teammate Warren Sapp, who also had a decent but underwhelming rookie season before turning into one of the most dominant DTs of his era.
A surgent sophomore season from Kinlaw would go a long way to making the 49ers DL great again in 2021, and help take the pressure off the likes of Armstead and Ebukam while easing the pressure on Bosa as he works his way back from injury. It would also go a long way to justifying the 49ers trade of Buckner as the right call.
The pressure's on, Javon.
One of your best articles Scooter. Very well reasoned and expressed. Thanks. I think Kinlaw will live up to expectations and thrive this year. Can’t wait to see him dominate.
ReplyDeleteThanks George. I think he has the raw talent. Just needs to refine his technique to become a consistently good player.
DeleteI really liked Buckner, however the 49ers were in a bit of a pickle. Armstead, Buckner and Bosa were all playing on rookie deals, while Ford's $18 million per year was the elephant in the room. The bottom line was Buckner's stock was worth a 1st rounder, while Armstead's was not, and Armstead's price tag was less; they chose to keep the lesser strength of the team, plus the 13th overall pick over their top DT. I thought the decision at the time was prudent, and I still do.
ReplyDeleteArmstead's price tag wasn't much less though.
DeleteBasically, imo the trade becomes prudent if Kinlaw plays close to Buckner's level. If not... what they were able to retain/ attain does not really equal what they gave up. Good players can be replaced fairly easily. Great/ dominant ones cannot. And across the NFL we consistently see how a dominant player makes lesser players around them look good.
Buckner was far from a finished product when he came into the league. He played high, didn't always keep his feet moving and found out everyone was just as strong as he was. I expect Kinlaw will adjust in a positive fashion.
DeleteYeah, I expect Kinlaw to take at least another season to fully adjust to NFL strength and speed. But he has a nice ceiling and Kocurek thinks he's a good scheme fit. He just needs to be very good, not necessarily great, to complement the others and make the D line excellent.
DeleteI really liked Buck but the legend of Buck appears to be bigger than the man -- even considering Buck's size :)
"the legend of Buck appears to be bigger than the man".
DeleteIt's a nice line, but not really true. Buckner was clearly a very good DT from early in his career. His second season didn't produce big numbers, but if you recall correctly he was widely praised for his play that season. In 2018 the stats came to prove his play that his 2017 season deserved. In 2019 he was excellent again but this time on the best DL unit in the NFL. He was the guy teams targeted to stop, which helped free up others.
Then he goes to the Colts and is a first team All Pro after another dominant season.
He isn't Donald, but nobody is. He is, however, one of the best DTs in the NFL.
Hey, Scooter, now that you mention, it does sound like a good line ;-)
DeleteI agree that Buck is an excellent D tackle, a top-5 tackle in the league. Although I don't know his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value, his positional value to the Niners didn't appear to warrant spending that money on him, which makes sense to me.
Colts overpaid him (like every good player in FA gets overpaid) because they had the money. Certainly a better way to spend the excess money than the Niners did in 2017 on Malcolm Smith.
As Niners become a perennial contender as a sustainably strong team, they may have to repeat this painful process of either trading early round players or letting them walk. I won't be shocked if Deebo does not agree to the Niners offer of his second contract.
I expect Kinlaw will take big step forward in his sophomore season.
DeleteAnd I expect Armstead to have a season similar to his 2019 form, now that the coaches seem to understand that he needs to lineup almost exclusively on the interior, down in and down out.
Part of the calculation of keeping Armstead instead of DeFo, besides the cost, was the thought that Armstead has more position versatility. And even though that may be true, it's clear that it doesn't mean it's a good idea. Armstead can convert speed to power, he just doesn't have much of a plan from a technical standpoint, or the natural bend in order to dip his shoulder to get around the edge, so in that respect, I think it was a miscalculation on behalf of the coaching staff.
DeleteMood, who would you rather be overpaying right now - Buckner or Armstead?
DeleteThat's the thing that makes the decision such a fun one to debate. If it wasn't a case of either Buckner or Armstead they paid the big $ to, it wouldn't be as debatable. For e.g., if it was between keeping Buckner and Kittle, then I think we would all more easily accept the decision as the smart one (though even that would probably spark some interesting discussion).
And yes, the 49ers will need to let players they would like to keep go due to the salary cap. Happens to every good team. Making the right choices on who to keep, and who they bring in to replace the guys they lose, will be critical to sustaining long term success. Thus why it is worth looking back at this decision over time to see how it worked out for the 49ers.
I know that I can't answer this question right now, because Armstead was clearly playing out of position last season due to injuries.
DeleteI suspect we will be able to answer that question after this season, because from what I've heard, the staff understands Armstead was not setup for success last season, so I doubt we'll see him on the edge again, unless they have no choice due to injuries.
To be fair, I doubt DeFo would have done much better if he were asked to play out of position like Armstead was last season.
And let me just say this .... what a brilliant move up to draft Trey Sermon! Wowza!
DeleteElite elusive short area quickness, elite excelleration, elite vision, and elite contact balance, makes this kid simply spectacular guys, just wait until you see him carrying the load for Kyle. This offense is evolving into something incredible!
Scooter,
DeleteI'd rather not overpay either. Doesn't seem they overpaid Armstead, though. They like his versatility of playing on base downs and rush from inside on third. IIRC, most of his 10 sacks in 2019 came rushing from the inside. As 49Reasons pointed out, he was forced to rush from outside last season because of injuries. I think Armstead will have a far more successful season in 2021.
They've both played 78 games. Armstead has 22.5 sacks, 201 tackles, 3 forced fumbles. Almost half his sacks came in one season where he wasn't the focal point of offenses. Buckner has 38 sacks, 321 tackles and 5 forced fumbles. Buckner has also been the focal point for offenses most of that time. Buckner also has way more pressures.
DeleteBetween 2020 and 2024, the Colts will pay Buck a little over $96M, while the 49ers will pay Armstead $85M. Basically only $10M difference in total, or $2M per year. That's nothing. And Buckner has said he was willing to take less than the Colts gave him to stay with the 49ers.
The two really aren't close in performance to date, yet aren't far apart in pay. I really can't see any basis for suggesting the 49ers didn't overpay Armstead, yet the Colts overpaid Buckner. In fact, I find this suggestion ridiculous based on the two players performance and pay. Buckner should be getting paid significantly more than Armstead.
Sure, Armstead may well have a more successful 2021. If he does, my guess is Bosa plays most of the year at a high level and Kinlaw comes on. My guess is that barring injury Buckner will once again be excellent, regardless of who is around him.
Scooter,
DeleteWhat really matters is the guaranteed money at signing and the opt-out terms, not the total value of $85 vs $96M. The guaranteed at signing numbers are $39.4 for Buck and $26.7M for Armstead. It's basically a 3 year, $50M contract for Armstead. An important consideration was the low cap hit of $18M total for 2020 and 2021.
I put the numbers up for the two tackles performing under Kocurek to make the case why they may have preferred Armstead over Buck. How Buck performed under previous D line coach and scheme may be less important.
Armstead effectively received $40M guaranteed. And Buckner's deal is essentially 3 years, $55M. So not really any substantial difference.
DeleteIf they made the decision based solely on 2019 production, shame on them.
I thought I read somewhere that Buckner's original demand was so high that the Niners didn't even consider negotiating it.
ReplyDeleteGood article, Scooter and I agree 100%. Buckner stated after the trade that he was willing to accept a compromise which IIRC was only about $1.5 million per year more than Armstead. It seems like the 49ers didn't really try to negotiate with Buckner yet were willing to overpay Armstead. Buckner is one of the top 2 or 3 at his position. Armstead isn't in the same class.
ReplyDeleteYes, that's the point that makes the decision far more debatable. Learning that he would have taken a deal not significantly greater than what Armstead received means they basically chose Armstead + pick 13 over Buckner plus whatever compensation they'd receive for Armstead. They either over valued Armstead, or felt with pick 13 they'd get a player pretty much as good as Buckner. Thus... the pressure is on Kinlaw to deliver.
DeleteI believe that some of the argument leading up to Bucks departure was that he wasn’t worth the Aaron Donald money he was asking for.
ReplyDeletePlaying “Monday morning QB” in hindsight will always be a popular tradition when it comes to our sports teams.
That said, I was among those who felt that the 49ers should not fork out that type of money because up until 2019 Buckner was just above average.
I don’t necessarily believe that Kinlaw needs to be on par with Buckner for the defense to succeed. All he needs to do is be successful at his position and as I said yesterday, Armstead has to step up to the plate this season.
When it comes to the front defensive line, I envision it with Bosa, Kinlaw, Armstead and the player that wins the 4th spot in TC.
"I don’t necessarily believe that Kinlaw needs to be on par with Buckner for the defense to succeed."
DeleteAgreed. That is not what I said though. To justify the decision to move an All Pro calibre DT in favour of Armstead + Kinlaw, they really need Kinlaw to develop into a dominant player in his own right.
Armstead is who he is at this point - hard to imagine he is all of a sudden going to develop into that player. He can be excellent when the guys around him are the focus of offenses, otherwise he is a solid player but nothing spectacular.
Scooter,
DeleteThat was my personal opinion, not an accusation. Sorry, if it sounded/read that way.
I see Kinlaw gradually improving from last season and hopefully enough to make a great impact.
The player who (IMO) needs to up his play is Armstead. It should not depend on Kinlaw’ (again my opinion) play for Armstead to have a good year as when Buckner was here.
If Armstead plays to last year’s level the 49ers need to strongly evaluate his value. I believe that Armstead was in a great position to put the defensive front line on his back last season with Bosa and Ford out - he never did.
Nw AES, my bad. You indeed never suggested you were insinuating that, I just misinterpreted.
DeleteCompletely agree on all counts regarding Armstead. In 2020 he really showed how much his 2019 season was a product of those around him. He needs to lift his game to make his contract close to worth it.
Thanks for the write-up, Scooter. It’s a good topic for discussion.
ReplyDeleteI had thought that the Buckner trade was a very good move by the Niners under the circumstances. Niners' MO, based on my observation, is to determine the team's value of the player based on scheme fit (positional value), production, point on career trajectory, and character (leadership, work ethic, etc.) Clearly, Buck's market value far exceeded the team's value. Niners are happy they got a first round pick in return rather than having to let him walk and a third-round comp pick.
Niners generally tend to stick firmly to their valuation except for special cases like Kittle and Williams where they appear to have paid more than they wanted because they may have figured that the cost to losing those two players would be too high.
Buckner's upside is very well known, but I wonder if he was not as well suited to Kocurek's wide 9 scheme as he is to playing more tight-knit formations. His best year was 2018. After Kocurek took over in 2019, all his key metrics declined from 2018 numbers, some dramatically, e.g., QB hits (down by 30%), sacks (down by 38%) and TFLs (down by 47%). Buck has been somewhat inconsistent on defending the run even when playing his best. It's possible that Buck's explosive penetration ability does not necessarily translate to lateral agility. Note that this decline happened with Bosa and Ford on the field. I don’t recall Buck making game changing plays in the Super Bowl – unlike Chris Jones.
In contrast, Armstead's number improved under Kocurek across the board in 2019 -- QB hits (up by 50%), sacks (down by 233%) and TFLs (up by 83%). (His numbers came down a lot in 2020 but the D line was a patchwork and was manufacturing pressure). He also sems to play the DE position better than Buck and thus offers more versatility. Armstead is not only making $4M per season less than Buck in AAV, but his actual guaranteed money is also $14M less. Niners probably think they will get Armstead's best 3 years in 2020-2022 and then renegotiate or cut him after 2023 for a cap hit of $6.5M.
In a vacuum, Armstead is nowhere the player that is Buck, but everything has to be seen in context. However, I don’t see Niners paying big bucks (>$20M AAV) to any tackle not named Donald. Kocurek got 7.5 sacks out of Buck in 2019 and 6.5 out of Hyder in 2020. Buck does not have to be replaced by a single high-talent tackle in this high-energy scheme that thrives on rotational depth. Niners D will live or die by the edge rush when everyone’s healthy.
Similarly, I am not sure if it is meaningful to judge the trade based on the extent to which Kinlaw pans out. Draft is a crapshoot and there are no guarantees, especially with injuries. A team make the trade decision on what is best for the team at the at time. I think it got better overall as a result of this trade by retaining more of the proven players. I also don’t see Kinlaw being under any particular pressure to break out this season. If one goes strictly by the numbers, Buck did not show much improvement in his sophomore season (2017) with sack number dropping by 50% and both TFLs and total tackle numbers declining while starting 16 games each season.
At the time I agreed with the decision. Since then... I still agree with the decision. But there is definitely a strong argument to be made the decision was the wrong one if Kinlaw doesn’t develop.
DeleteI strongly disagree the team could not retain its players if it kept Buckner over Armstead. They could easily have structured the contract to do so. The difference in asking price was not significant enough to make re-signing the other players they did retain impossible.
So then it comes down to whether Armstead + Kinlaw is better than Buckner.
So I disagree that it isn't meaningful to judge the trade on how Kinlaw develops.
As to whether Buckner fit the system, I find it hard to believe he couldn't excel in it. And he was actually very good in 2019... while being a focus of offenses unlike Armstead who got a lot of 1-on-1s. Yes, metrics were down from 2018 - that often happens when a dominant player gets help. In 2018 it was all on Buckner and he delivered. In 2019 he had a lot of help so individual stats went down but team stats went waaaaaay up. And he was good in the Super Bowl too. 1.5 sacks and plenty of pressures. He and Bosa were excellent that game. All season, in fact.
Didn't position value enter into the calculation as well?
DeleteScooter,
DeleteTo be clear, Niners could have figured out a way to keep Buck vs. Armstead if they really wanted. Of course, they would have had problems also extending Kittle who is more valuable. And then there was the lowered cap in 2020 which would have added to the problems.
Bottom line, the Niners (I'm sure with Kocurek's input) decided that Armstead + the 13th pick was better value than Buck, and I have no reason not to question that. Ideally, every team would like to keep every excellent player they draft. But there is the trade off of salary cap vs. perceived positional value which is why Bellichick let Chandler Jones walk.
"In 2019 he had a lot of help so individual stats went down..."
Could I not make the opposite argument --- with Bosa and Ford closing on the edges, the tackles should have more sacks not less?
The 49ers could probably have found a way to keep and extend all the guys they did keeping Buckner instead of Armstead.
DeleteYes, the decision clearly was that Armstead + 13 was worth more/ better value than Buckner. That decision gets made with the idea that what they get with pick 13 + Armstead would be just as good or better than Buckner. And given what we have seen from Armstead in 2020, which was more of the same prior to his breakout 2019, it looks more and more like it will be on Kinlaw to excel to make the value equivalent.
And we absolutely can question whether it was a move the 49ers "won" in hindsight. There is nothing wrong with that. And coming to the conclusion it didn't end up as equal or better value is not an indictment on the 49ers decision at that time (if that is where it ultimately lands) - they don't get to make that call with hindsight. It is just acknowledging that the decision did not work out as hoped.
Now we don't know yet whether the decision will pan out, still too early to tell. But the performance of Kinlaw and Armstead needs to improve considerably to make it so.
Looks like Arthur Smith predicted a month earlier to the Falcons' FO that the Niners would take Lance:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/147101-falcons-draft-video-shows-reaction-49ers-selecting-lance/
This is an interesting piece and their are many ways to view it.
ReplyDelete1. Buckner's value last season and over the next season will likely be greater than that of Armstead and Ward and possibly including Kinlaw.
2. While his value is potentially greater than all 3 of those players combined, it does not necessarily mean it would have been the right move to keep Defo.
If anything the value discrepancy is due to SF greatly overpaying Armstead.
While some have said that Armstead's positional versatility was an argument for choosing to keep him over Buckner, I would disagree. In fact, this seems to be precisely why SF got such poor contract value with Armstead. He was paid so much because he was lined up primarily as a DE. The problem is, he provides little if any pass rush from the edge, and the vast majority of his sacks and pressures came from the inside. The issue being that DE's are paid much more, this resulted in SF greatly overpaying for edge production that he was not providing.
I think one could easily argue that SF made the right move in trading Buckner only to negate it by signing Armstead to nearly the same amount.
It made sense to move on from Defo, given SF's cap situation and what they could get for him in return. That then begs the question. If Armstead was unlikely to return a 1st or even possibly a 2nd rounder, why pay him as if he would?
3. At this point in order for SF to come out ahead they need Armstead or Kinlaw to develop into a player that can consistently provide 8 to 12 sacks per season. Or, they both need to consistently provide 6 to 9 sacks per season to make up for his loss in the aggregate.
Its looking like the Niners open the season on the road against the Lions.
ReplyDeleteThat’s win number 1.
ReplyDelete