I thought it'd be interesting to compare our Super Bowl roster with our current roster, and get an early feel for which position groups were either upgraded or weakened. Let's begin with the quarterback room. Clearly an upgrade by swapping out, Mullens and Beathard for, Lance and Sufeld.
The running back room is clearly an upgrade by swapping out, Coleman for Sermon and Breida for Gallman and Mitchell.
The wide receiver room lost Sanders and replaced him with Aiyuk. Lost Bourne but have Hurd to take his place. I would call this a push.
The tight end position is basically the same as the 2019 roster.
The offensive line group has clearly been upgraded. Williams>Staley, Mack>Garland, Banksy>Person.
Defensive line group was weakened by the injuries to Bosa and Ford. While this years group looks a little deeper, it clearly isn't the same without those two players. Unless they recapture their 2019 magic, this group is weaker on paper.
Linebacker group is pretty much the same. Another push.
Cornerback position lost Sherman while adding Verrett. No Witherspoon, no problem with Moseley and two draft picks. I'll go with another push here but I think Verrett is playing better today than Sherman was in 2019.
Safety is unchanged but it looks as though Hufanga could be an upgrade over Harris. Another push.
Special teams have been upgraded with a new long snapper.
Summing up, on paper it looks as though this team has enough talent, if able to remain healthy, to have a legitimate shot of getting back to the Super Bowl. Do you agree?
This is an interesting angle to explore, Razor. I'm pretty much in agreement with most evaluations except that I think that the LB corps is better than the 2019 version as a result of the experience gained by the young players in the past two seasons. Also I don't think Verrett is quite the replacement of Sherm in guiding the younger players both on and off the field. But he may be back.
ReplyDeleteNiners clearly improved on at least two of the three areas needed to win in the NFL -- the QB, those who protect the QB, and those who take down the QB.
On the last group, a lot is riding on Kinlaw's development and Bosa's return to form. The edge group this draft wasn't all that deep and ShanaLynch probably felt that there was no BPA edge after the 40th pick. But I can see them picking up a veteran edge around start of TC after they take a closer look at the current roster including Ebukam.
Good point regarding the experience, Mood. Kinlaw was in house so I'm assuming he's putting the work in. I'd like to see them pick up Houston to put into the pass rush rotation.
DeleteRazor
ReplyDeleteFor the most part I agree with your opinion(s) for the 9er players. I would add that I expect WR Richie James to contribute. And until I see Hurd play, I remain undecided.
I would add that drafting OG Banks, RB Trey Sermon and by signing C Alex Mack, it fundamentally changes the offense, by giving it the ability to run inside zone and power gap, even if the Defense puts 8 in the box. It should also help JG to remain upright and give him time (3+ seconds), to find the open receiver.
I also have to agree with Mood, that the experience gained by the 9er young players should help them improve. I expect to see 2-3 of them take the next step during the preseason.
While I believe the 2021 squad will be a SB contender, assuming JG stays healthy, I expect, with the addition of Lance, the 2022 squad to be even better, if for no other reason than he will force the Defense to play 11 on 11.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Shanny use Lance to force defenses to play 11 on 11 when they're down in the redzone this year.
DeleteI am not sure that this draft indicates any fundamental change in Kyle's offense. They have increasingly mixed in gap scheme runs over the last two season. Defenses have been using their fast LBs and hybrid LB/safeties to counter stretch runs. When they zig, offense's gotta zag. Power runs may be needed especially on short yardage in the red zone.
DeleteFrom Scooter reviews and what I have heard on podcasts, the two guards and the RBs appear to be suited for the zone scheme but big enough for effective inside power runs. ShanalLynch seem to view Banks as a rare commodity, sort of a Trent Williams of guards.
Exactly my thinking Mood. It looks to me like this is a continuation of what Shanahan has already been doing. Basically putting the personnel in place to run what his offense has been evolving into more effectively. Guys that are multiple in what they can do, so Kyle can run whatever he thinks gives him an advantage against a given defense, and keep defenses from teeing off on any one thing.
DeleteThat's why I say we'll be going into the season with the idea of leaning hard on the most diverse and expansive running game the NFL has ever seen.
DeleteBoth teams look good on paper. The main key will be health. The 2020 looked good on paper too, and very similar to the 2019 one.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of position groups, my main concerns are DL and CB. DL because two of its most important players are coming off significant injuries (and it is a big part of their success), and CB because after the starters there isn't much tried and tested depth.
Scooter, you see them signing any pass rush help? Maybe they've been encouraged by both Bosa and Ford's rehab.
DeleteI think overall the secondary depth has been strengthened on paper, but you're right about them being untested.
I'd love to see the team add another pass rusher, CB and WR. Maybe a TE too. But realistically they are likely only going to add maybe 1 or 2 guys that could make a difference on the roster. I think Sherman would be a good addition if his calf/ achilles are healed up. And there are a few vet pass rushers I think they should look at if Ford isn't cleared to play.
DeleteYeah, I think they, like a few other teams, will wait till May 21 to sign some FAs. That's when the second phase of the OTA is completed and the team has been on the field for a week.
DeleteProbably right, Mood.
DeletePersonally one guy I would be looking at taking a risk on is Gareon Conley. He should be a cheap addition making the risk pretty low, with decent potential upside.
Speaking of OTAs, when do we start getting some reports on what's happening during activities?
DeleteGood question, Cubus.
DeleteWishing Lance a Happy 21st Birthday. He should get himself a nice glass of Napa cab. ShanaLynch could have signed the GOAT last off-season, but, they chose to draft the kid who was born the year the GOAT was drafted, IIRC.
ReplyDeleteIt’s a close call at a few positions. But the front defensive line still needs a little time.
ReplyDeleteKinlaw is not in Buckner’ air space yet, Armstead played below his 2019 level in 2020.
If Kinlaw shows a strong improvement this year and Armstead steps up to the plate, the defense could be SB material.
The good thing is I saw Kinlaw in the building already working out with McGlinchey. Bodes well for that improvement we'll be looking for.
DeleteI'm with Scooter on the concerns of this years team.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of the DLine the 2019 pass rush unit was far superior. Defo, Ford, Armstead (inside), Bosa could be platooned with Blair, DJ Jones, Moore, Taylor.
That was an A+ unit (the best Pass rushing unit in the league) that was able to mask a good but not great secondary. This years unit is probably a borderline top 10 unit if they stay healthy and almost all of their best pass rushers are coming off injury.
That years pass rush (as it was elite) was better able to mask the secondary and Sherman and K'waun were younger, faster and less injured then. Truthfully, I don't know which secondary is better or if it's a push, but it would need to be much better, given that they will need to cover for much longer.
I think Ryans is more apt to blitz than Saleh was. I also think Verrett is a true shutdown cb. Something we did not possess in 2019.
Delete2019 reg season. How important is Ford in the defensive scheme. I say not that important, other then his first game as a Niner he played 40 snaps. His next game saw the second highest total of snaps 24. He was inactive five out of the last six games and the one game he played he had four snaps. He played a total of 222 snaps in 2019. He did have six and a half sacks which is real good considering he wasn't on the field much. I would not count on Ford for much if he is even on the team.
ReplyDeleteBe nice if he showed up in November 100% healthy. His speed off the edge creates conflict for whichever side of the line he's on.
DeleteI disagree. He didn't play a tonne of snaps, but he was a big part of pressuring QBs. There is a good reason the team held so many QBs to below 150 net yards in the first half of the season while he was healthy.
DeleteThe point being they will win without him as they already have demonstrated that. Can not count on him much like JG. I cant see he is an important part of the scheme when he isn't available.
DeleteFord - fix or repair daily.
Ford's chassis is welded together.
DeleteThe defense played well last year despite a lot of top players being absent. The issue for the 49ers last season was the offense without a QB.
DeleteSo I think the 49ers can win without any of their individual defensive starters. But when they were all healthy in 2019 they could dominate a game and win the game with minimal input from offense. And the real value of Ford (or any of the top players on D) lies in the depth they provide to offset injuries with minimal decline in defensive performance. Basically, if Ford is not the same player or unable to play this season, if Bosa goes down again the edge position becomes very thin.
We're due for a healthy year. Let's hope we get our due.
DeleteHa! Welding is good, but 49ers training and medical staff need to stock up on Duct Tape this season to keep the players on the field. Hey, that worked for the bumper of my old Bel Air back (waaaaay back) in the day 😊
ReplyDeleteDid that one time to hold my fender on until I could afford to get it repaired.
Delete