Nope, it's not a misprint. After trading up to the #3 pick from #12, the 49ers have put themselves in a position to select their franchise qb. Most lucid scouting circles have them ranked as follows:
Lawrence
Wilson
Fields/Lance
Jones
In the wild, wild NFC west there's a new sheriff in LA. Stafford is joining the likes of, Wilson and Murray. As if that wasn't wild enough, we have a chance to add, Fields or Lance. Now, there's been talk around town that, Mac Jones shouldn't be ruled out. Say what?! This is where our little play on words comes in by substituting the word, "daft" for draft. How completely absurd is the idea that, Shanny would give up a total of 3 1st round picks and change for, Mac Jones? Off the charts absurd. Just because he loves himself some, Kirk Cousins in the 4th round does not translate to taking, Mac Jones at pick #3. So, you have to ask yourself, would anyone put together that kind of deal for, Kirk Cousins? No, not even, Kyle Shanahan. That's not to say he doesn't love him. I'm sure he does but it's not that kind of love. It's not the kind of love it takes to put your career on the line for. Especially after missing out on, Mahomes, Watson and Allen.
Justin Fields' pro day will be tuesday. The 49ers were not represented at Alabama's pro day. Miami traded down because they want Watson. Tua will get the year, the Dolphins will draft a wr, while having the assets to acquire, Watson if , Tua falters. The Eagles traded down because they saw enough of Jones and are good with Hurts over him. Hurts will also get a year to prove he's the guy. I'm told if you wanted, Mac Jones you'd be able to get him at #10. GM John Lynch, assistant GM, Peters and director of college scouting, Waugh weren't the only ones in attendance at Zach Wilson's pro day. Rumor has it Big Shanny was there as well, allegedly in the crowd. Big Shanny doesn't show up if it's not to sign off, on Zach Wilson. Corey Davis was told they are keeping, Darnold just so he'd sign with New York. The Jets are taking, Penei Sewell and the 49ers are taking, Zach Wilson. Who's with me?
Originally I thought Fields or Watson. Since then I’ve ruled out both. Watson would strain the cap too much. I thought Fields because Lawrence and Wilson would be gone, and with no gap QB it can’t be Lance. So either Fields or Jones, and they’d probably not risk all that capital on a one dimensional QB. Since then we’ve learned they targeted 5, not 3. That’s significant imo. So I now think Wilson or Jones, in that order. With no bridge QB remaining to get them through the NFCW, they need a stud like Wilson or the most NFL ready QB in Jones. Please feel free today question my logic. Now do they know Wilson will be there? I don’t think Saleh would spill the beans. My money would be on Jones.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet everything I own that it will not be, Mac Jones. The trade alone tells you all you need to know. Shanny realizes he can't do it in this league as it currently stands with a system qb. He wants his own superstar.
DeleteBtw although lots of people think Jones will be there at 12, I don’t believe that.
DeleteRazor, there being no gap QB tells most of the story. Lance just doesn’t fit imo.
DeleteGeorge, the talk in NFL circles is if you want, Jones you will need to be at #10 to get him. Keep an eye on the, Patriots.
DeleteGeorge, Jimmy Garoppolo will compete with the rookie all the way up to the trade deadline. What he does up to that point will dictate his immediate future with the team.
DeleteIf they want to draft Jones, why not just swap picks with the Eagles. That would put the Eagles at 12, where they ultimately ended up anyway. That's a much more logical move for Jones, in terms of value, even though I think Jones at 6 is still a bit of a reach.
DeleteIn fact, reading the proverbial tea leaves, it seems like Shanny showed his cards last December when he said this about how his QB evaluation process has changed-
DeleteKyle: "Things change, people change. You start to see you can win football games with any type of QB, as long as they are good enough and you can be good enough in hundreds of different ways. So I evaluate QB's in terms of trying to find people who can have a chance to be one of those elite-type guys, and there's lots of different ways to do it. You can see now (presumably in reference to the modern day, mobile QB) there's plenty of different ways, so I don't think that'll ever change."
Meh, read his quote on QBs from October 29 last year.
DeletePeople make way too much of this quote.
OK Scooter, fair enough, but why then would they not just trade with Philly for pick #6, if they are locked in on Mac Jones?Why were they so intent of moving into the top 5. You think that makes sense for Jones? I sure don't. And I'm not sure why people keep saying Mac Jones is more Pro ready than Trey Lance. Lance played in a full-on Pro style system, with heavy bootleg concepts, while making all of his own pre-snap reads, and protection calls. Lance has super star potential, sort of a bigger version of D. Watson, while Mac Jones is more of a poor man's Matty Ice, and Matt Ryan is not the future of NFL quarterbacking, IMO.
DeleteI like Mac Jones, but if they gave up that much draft capitol for an old school pocket passer with such a high quality multi-deminsional QB class, I am going to be SORELY disappointed in ShanaLynch! That would be a devastating missed opportunity, IMO!
DeleteTry Lance is 20 years old, and he plays with the poise of a veteran. Poise is such an important trait for an NFL QB, and Lance has poise way beyond his years. I know it's a cliche, but this young kid ALWAYS plays within himself and within the system. He has "IT", and he's big enough to feel comfortable using him on some designed runs, and RPO's, which is THE thing that can absolutely take Kyle's offense to the next level. And I sense that Kyle's knows it.
DeleteAll signs point to Trey Lance, IMO, but it could be Wilson of the Jets go with the big OT!
Just to be clear, I am not saying they are taking Jones.
DeleteBut as to why they would go to 3 not 6 for Jones - because they don't base their beliefs on what mock drafts say. The idea that Jones WILL be available at #6 (or any pick) is just an opinion, and for most fans it is an opinion based on what draft "experts" are currently saying.
Before the Senior Bowl in 2016 Carson Wentz was seen as a late first/ early 2nd rounder. By the end of March, after the Eagles had traded up to #8, people started accepting he was a top 10 pick. When rumours started circulating the Eagles were looking to move up further people thought it would be reach to take Wentz any higher than 8 because he was certain to be available there. The Eagles ended up trading up to #2 in mid-April to make sure they got him.
All I am saying in all of that is that people have a certain belief on what a player is worth based largely on what the NFL draft media tell them. But most NFL teams don't worry about that. And its funny how NFL media opinion changes as they get wind of what teams actually think of these players.
You always have a well thought out, coherent opinion Scooter, that's why I've always enjoyed conversing with you over at the Press Democrat. Appreciate you as a Niner Faithful!
DeleteDidn't stop Gettleman from taking Daniel Jones, but he was way cheaper.
DeleteCarson Wentz isn't lacking in talent, that's for sure. He's just a little out of control and reckless, plus he's been injury prone. Lance is superior talent. Again, he's just 20. Let him sit behind Jimmie for a year. QB's have a higher NFL success rate when they are afforded a chance to stand with a clipboard and learn in the classroom their first year. Takes pressure off them as rookies. Then again, Lance seems mentally ready, considering by all accounts he's a smart, football savvy kid with football instincts. For me it's a toss up between him and Wilson, with Field close behind, and Fields has tons of talent as well, just a little greener in terms of pro scheme knowledge.
DeleteWhy not let Jimmy re-establish himself if he can stay healthy, and then trade him next off-season? If he can stay healthy, he could get his mojo back, and the Niners essentially still own his rights, though he does have a no trade clause. They could conceivably absorbs his contract this year, as a bridge QB.
I'm all for drafting Lance. But tbh, I wouldn't mind any of the top 5 QBs.
DeleteYou are right in that, as long Mac Jones ends up having a career for the 49ers, nobody will remember whether it seemed like ShanaLynch gave up a little more draft capitol than necessary.
DeleteNo matter what, they need to make this pick payoff. This is going to be a career definition ng pick for Coach Kyle Shanahan!
I guess I need to trust in Kyle. Personally, I will be most excited coming out of the draft with one of these 3 guys, in order of preference.
1a) Zach Wilson
1b) Trey Lance
2) Justin Fields
3) Mac Jones.
And I am comfortable with the rookie sitting a year backing up Jimmy, and would hope the rook would push Jimmy. If it's Lance or Fields, maybe design some wildcat type packages for them.
I meant 1 of those 4 QB's.
DeleteHey Razor, at least Daniel Jones is actually very athletic for a pocket passer, right?
DeleteI just feel like .... if you're giving up as much as the 49ers just did in order to draft your franchise QB, it better be a guy who fits the direction the position is heading at the NFL level. The idea of Kyle grooming an Uber athletic, multi-deminsional QB who can also win from the pocket, is a very exciting prospect. The idea of grooming a one deminsional QB in the mold of Matt Ryan just doesn't excite me one bit. Even if Mac Jones ends up reaching his potential, he'll never be a superstar, IMO.
I'd consider Mac Jones to be a decent pick at 12, but honestly, I'd rather take a chance on Sam Darnold being that guy, compared to Mac Jones. I still think Darnold has a higher ceiling than Mac Jones, if you put him in the right situation. And if the Jets are drafting a QB at 2, Dam Darnold would likely be a much less expensive risk.
Boy this is going to be a long month!
I can see a different pick at 3 if Carolina is willing to trade Bridgewater for Garoppolo. How else can picking Lance work?
ReplyDeleteOk. Just read your comment above. Just have to see.
DeleteNot sure what you are conveying. Jimmy+Rookie+Rosen=may the best man win. That's their plan.
DeleteNFL Draft Betting Odds:
ReplyDelete#3 Overall Pick:
Justin Fields +200
Penei Sewell +250
Ja'Maar Chase +275
Devonta Smith +300
Slater +500
Zach Wilson +600
Lance +1000
OT Brady Christensen BYU
ReplyDelete6'6 302lbs
40: 4.89u
Broad: 10'4
Vertical: 34"
Bench: 30 reps
3 year starter at LT
2500+ Snaps
1st Team All-American
This dude is moving up draft boards.
Fields i can see sliding if you see his tape against Northwestern and he stares down a lot of the time his Primary Read and not looking off scouts are not so sure about his abilities about reading a defense.
ReplyDeleteStill believe its Wilson or Lance.
I think they wanted to get Dalton/Bridgewater as bridge so that they could get a good offer from the Pats to have more ammo for trading up but did not worked out so they traded now as high as possible,so it will be Jimmy G or other veteran bridge till the rookie is ready.
The 49ers were not present at, Lance's pro day. Will they be at, Fields'?
DeleteStanding next to a prospect to be able to hear the ball sail through the air, coming out of his hand, etc. is big. You can't get a feel for that on tv. Now, Shanny having already done that with, Fields from camp collective may already have a gauge on all those things.
OT. Separated at birth (and a few decades)
ReplyDeleteTrevor Lawrence
https://abcnews4.com/resources/media/7616fd6a-6e80-463b-81ec-cf1ace5662e5-large1x1_TrevorLawrenceNov.2019AP.jpg
Jim Messina
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71yqR2OW8PL._SL1500_.jpg
I said last year Lawrence looked like prince Charming from Shrek.
Delete"The Jets are taking, Penei Sewell and the 49ers are taking, Zach Wilson. Who's with me?"
ReplyDeleteThat thought had crossed my mind. I think the Niners know who the Jets are taking thus made the move to get who they want.
Great minds think alike, Under.😎
DeleteIf Jets take Sewell and we dare to pass on Wilson i think Steve Young would be very p.ssed off and me too
DeleteJordan Schultz
ReplyDelete@Schultz_Report
#Patriots are not pursuing #49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, per sources. Cap space isn’t there and obviously Cam Newton will return. Additionally, the draft is flush with QBs. No Jimmy GQ reunion for the Pats in foreseeable future.
1:04 PM · Mar 28, 2021
No way, Jimmy is going anywhere until they see how it plays out in training camp.
I'm not so sure. One of the advantages of having a rookie QB is the rookie wage scale. So, around $23-25 million could be had this year to restructure Warner, whom the 49ers will make the highest-paid LB. Of course, the rookie QB needs to be competent to run the offense this year. Wilson and Jones probably - Lance not so much.
DeleteCubus, they've got plenty of room capwise. They've budgeted themselves into a situation where they don't have to trade him, and they don't have to hand the reins over to the rookie. They'll let it all play out in training camp, and up until the trade deadline.
DeleteNice one razor.
ReplyDeleteZach Wilson is undoubtedly option A imo. But why would the Jets refuse to listen to offers for Sewell?
As for Jones, I outlined my thoughts on the matter yesterday. I think the only daft thing to do is to rule him out as an option.
Sewell is that rare unicorn, and the Jets believe he is a future Hall Of Famer in the mold of, Trent Williams.
DeleteHere's the thing. If the Jets are going to take Sewell, why not swap the #2 for the #3 pick. They know the 49ers are taking a QB so Sewell will be available at #3. Of course, I'm assuming that the 49ers are interested in that trade, which I would be if I was pretty sure that Wilson and Lawrence will be the first two picks. Now if the 49ers "know" that the Jets are taking Sewell, then don't make the trade. But if I were in the Jets organization and found out that someone gave the 49ers "trade secret" info, I would probably want heads to roll.
DeleteYeah, I was about to answer my own question with exactly that, cubus. The reason the Jets may have said no to a trade is they really don't want to miss out on Sewell, and would only be willing to move 1 spot and only to a team that assured them they were taking someone else.
DeleteButI think we're now in the hopeful rather than realistic portion of trying to work out who the team is targeting. Seems highly unlikely to me that the Jets pass on Wilson.
Cubus, how do we know the 49ers don't have an agreement in place to make that trade?
DeleteScooter, how do you explain what they told, Davis? The timing of the trade, and the representation that was at, Wilson's pro day?
First off, Darnold was really the selling point?
DeleteSecond, what makes you certain they aren't keeping Darnold if the draft a QB?
That's the rumor.
DeleteThey want, Sewell for the reasons I just gave you.
Also, Davis' comments and actions aren't as clear cut as you makemout.
Delete"Obviously, I’m coming with my understanding that Sam is the guy,” Davis said, via Rich Cimini of ESPN.com. “That doesn’t scare me away at all. I’ve seen Sam do great things, and I have all the belief in him. Whatever direction they decide to go, it’s on me to make sure that I’m ready.”
Whatever direction they decide to go? And he then liked Wilson's proday video.
Kyle Shanahan ran the 8th most productive offense in regular season history in 2016 with Matt Ryan at QB. Ryan had the 5th highest yards per pass of the past 30 years, and highest for a QB passing for over 4,000 yards.
ReplyDeleteBut now we think Shanahan believes he can't be successful without a new age mobile QB? Okey dokey.
He wasn't at Mac Jones' pro day. That's a big tell.
DeleteHe hasn't been at any QBs pro day. Must be going a different direction then?
DeleteNo 49ers representation at Mac Jones or Trey Lance pro days.
DeleteThere were three 49ers staff at Alabama's pro day, including head of scouting Ethan Waugh.
DeleteScooter, the three top guys in charge of the draft were at Zach Wilson's pro day.
DeleteMatt Barrows
@mattbarrows
The #49ers observed at BYU pro day/Zach Wilson day:
* GM John Lynch
* Ass't GM Adam Peters
* Dir. of College Scouting Ethan Waugh
They are the top 3 in the personnel department as far as the draft. Will be interesting to see if same group is at Justin Fields' pro day on Tues.
Razor, I know how much you want it to be Wilson. But I think you are connecting dots that aren't necessarily there.
DeleteNobody in NFL circles believes the Jets are passing on Wilson.
Also, what happens if they split staff between the Alabama and OSU pro day this week? Bama are having their 2nd pro day the same day as OSU.
Delete@Scooter:
DeleteThe thing that concerns me with Lance is his lack of experience. Further, if the idea is to get the maximum benefits from a rookie contract, then ideally the rookie should be the starter in Year 1 and no later than Year 2. What's your take on these points?
I wouldn't have believed it either a couple days ago, but after hearing Big Shanny was there as well as the three top draft brass, along with the timing of the trade just triggers my Niner senses. Wilson is the only other qb worth making this trade for imho, unless Shanny is comfortable with Fields through his camp collective interactions.
DeleteCubus, for some reason you're locked into this move being about the money. It's not. At least it isn't this year. It's about identifying a generational talent to lead your franchise into the future for championship sustainability, while at the same time believing you have a roster capable of winning the Super Bowl.
DeleteLance showed his ability to pick up and run a pro style offense quickly and very effectively.
DeleteAs I have said before, I don't subscribe to the notion Lance is years away from being able to play in the NFL.
I don't know how far away, Lance is but I know he's a bigger risk than, Wilson.
DeleteYes, he is. Thus the reason I think Wilson is option A. But I don't believe he will be available. Lance is option B imo.
DeleteThe tea leaves are there, Scooter. Could they be a coincidence? Sure, but maybe we'll get a more definitive look at, Fields' pro day and who shows up.
DeleteThe tea leaves are there, yes. I'm not dismissing what you are saying because it certainly is possible. But I do think it is unlikely.
Delete@Razor:
DeleteI think it is a consideration. Look at what they've done. Kittle is the highest paid TE, Williams is the highest paid OT, they way overpaid for Armstead. Warner will be the highest paid LB and Bosa the highest paid DE. The team is paying stars and that money has to come from somewhere. What better way than a rookie QB. When it comes time to pay the rookie QB, then they can make decisions to let some of the stars go (like Williams who will be up there in age).
I don't disagree with you. It's the timing I disagree with. I don't think any decision on trading Jimmy will happen until we get through training camp, and closer to the trade deadline because I do believe he will be the starter. Lombardi already articulated how they can extend Warner this year without putting their cap situation in jeopardy.
DeleteScooter, the operative word there is 2016. The NFL is an ever evolving sport, right? In terms of NFL years, 5 years ago is an eternity. Is anyone denying that the QB position is evolving? In 2021, everyone is looking for the next MAHOMES - WATSON - WILSON - ALLEN - PRESCOTT - etc. Nobody is looking for the next Matt fricken Ryan.
DeleteI am simply hoping that after watching Wilson kill them over the last nine seasons that he appreciate the dynamic that the running QB provides..... if Wilson isn't available, I vote for Lance over Fields with the higher ceiling. I don't see the Jets not taking a QB with the value there- I guess we'll have to wait and see what kind of picks/players Carolina and Atlanta toss at them
ReplyDeleteI think you've hit the nail on the head. Shanny can win with a system qb. We've seen that. I think he's evolved over time, being pulled along by the NFL revolution at the position led by, Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Rodgers and Russell Wilson. He traded up for a generational talent that can do both. Run his offense in rhythm while adding the mobile to air off schedule element.
DeleteI do remember KS or Lynch saying that one of the main reasons they signed Jimmy G. after the 2017 season was because of his ability to make off-schedule plays. That never panned out as they hoped.
DeleteJimmy G. making off-schedule plays never panned out because he blew out his damn knee, and never really recovered physically (or mentally for that matter). Jimmy is a broken QB at this stage, who can't stay healthy, and who may, or may not ever regain his pre-injury form.
DeleteThe Jets cannot move down under the Falcons or Bengals if they want, Sewell. That's why they either draft, Sewell at 2 or trade down with the 49ers for their 2nd or 3rd round pick.
ReplyDeleteScooter, I listed the odds the betting sites have on the 3rd overall pick. Fields leads the way, followed by Sewell. Then, Chase, Smith, Slater and then Wilson, followed by the longshot, Lance. No sign of, Mac Jones.
ReplyDeleteWeren't the 49ers going to trade for Stafford, according to odds makers?
DeleteHonestly, I just don't understand how you can absolutely rule out the idea they may really like Jones.
Sorry, not true, I do understand it. Same reason you are now certain it will be Wilson. You really like Wilson. You really don't like Jones.
DeleteIf you read what I said, and I've said it all along, in fact to you, that Shanny will love him some, Mac Jones. I said he's remind him of Kirk Cousins back then. 4th rounder. Not a #3 pick plus two more 1st's and change. Rule it out? Ok, 5% chance. That's the best I can do.
DeleteYea, I think Wilson is the real deal. Have for quite some time. In fact before it was popular. Mac Jones is a back up to me. Might not be a popular opinion, but it is what it is.
DeleteThere are so many ways to look at things. The Jets coaching staff is made up of ex Niner coaches who have been influenced greatly by Shanny. What did the Niners do last week - T Williams. I can see the Jets taking Sewell at number 2. If you are building a team the line of scrimmage is a really good place to start.
ReplyDeleteIf you're keeping your qb because you believe he's a perfect fit for your system, the next important position is LT, no question about it, Under.
DeleteAs much as my heart says Zach Wilson, my realistic side says it won’t happen unless Saleh and the GM completely whiff on their #2 pick.
DeleteI can’t help but recall how Shanahan and Lynch (1st time head coach and GM) struck out with their selection of Solomon Thomas.
If Saleh respects his new and first head coaching job he has to go with Wilson.
17 game season being announced.... I like it, but believe they should add a bye and cut pre-season in half (assuming that is also addressed in the new CBA).
ReplyDelete* gonna be a fun couple of weeks fueled with speculation, but I like the idea of "Moneyball" with young QB's allowing you to build the team around him. While the A's owners have sucked on not spending, and fans don't like marquee players moving on, but Beane has had them contend for many years....
Razor, according to Peter King, Kyle, Lynch and Peters will be at Alabama's second pro day rather than going to OSU.
ReplyDeleteSorry, not Peters. He'll be at OSU. Kyle and Lynch expected at Alabama's pro day.
DeleteCool. I still think the chances are slim to none that, Jones is Shanny's chosen one, and slim just left town.
DeleteCool. But completely debunks your theory that attendance at pro day matters.
DeleteNah, they matter but they probably want to chew Saban's ass over Foster.
DeleteLol! Attending the pro day was a critical sign of their draft plans... until they decided to go see Jones. Now it means nothing.
DeleteScooter, if you truly believe Jones is Shanny's man, then more power to ya. I don't care if they take him to IHop. I'm not buying what you, Simms and Maiocco are cooking.
DeleteNo, I have said I think it could be any of the QBs. I don't know. I just think it is a little funny seeing arguments you're making for why it couldn't possibly be Jones be debunked.
DeleteHow exactly does Jones upgrade the position?
DeleteYou really believe Shanny is foolish enough to make the same mistake twice? He passed on Mahomes. Didn't even study him! Passed on Watson. Missed out on Allen. Been beat in the biggest game of his career by a guy he just blew off. Now he's gonna triple down on Jones? Man, that's a tough pill to swallow even for a diehard fan like myself.
It's a tough pill to swallow because you believe QBs now have to be the best athletes on the field. Nothing in Shanahan's past suggests he feels the same.
DeleteNope. It's a tough pill because most people don't touch the stove after getting burned the first time. Most people don't give up 3 1st's for that opportunity.
DeleteShanahan hasn't been burned by working with less mobile QBs. He's been burned by working with a QB that isn't the great pocket QB they hoped he was and gets hurt a lot.
DeleteIn fact, using your analogy, he should be even less inclined to take an athletic QB since he was burned by RGIII.
Mahomes burned him for a Super Bowl. That's a 3rd degree one. Leaves scars.
DeleteI think Shanny let the cat out of the bag when asked about whether or not Jones was in the elite space. His answer was that there is a 3rd guy and, quote, "there's a chance to get there with 4 and 5". So Jones is elite, and Fields and Lance have a chance. Gotcha.
Maybe. I don't know what Shanahan is thinking. Neither do you. All I know is that when I look at the types of QBs he has had success with in the past, Jones is the one that seems to most closely resemble them.
DeleteScooter, the cool thing is we're about to find out exactly how he thinks as it pertains to the modern day NFL quarterback. It's like you're at the Baskin Robbins of quarterbacks. What flavor will Shanny choose? Fascinating stuff.
DeleteOh 100% fascinating. This draft is now one of the most exciting for the 49ers for some time. I can't wait.
DeleteMy hope is they get Wilson. If not Wilson I hope it is Lance. But I'm also fine with Jones or Fields.
I will say though... I somewhat disagree we will learn much about how Shanahan thinks about QBs. He's been very consistent and transparent with his thoughts on this for awhile. It just seems to me that people are reading a lot into a couple of comments but ignoring other very important ones.
He likes athletic QBs. He's been open and up front about that. But the critical component for him is they need to be great pocket QBs first and foremost. That hasn't changed. Even today, he outlined this again.
I see some people misquoting him atm re how you would build the prototype QB as "the biggest, strongest, fastest QB". Not what he said. He said "the biggest, strongest, fastest AND BEST QB". As he has said previously, if you had the option between Brady and Brady with mobility you'd pick the latter, but Brady is the best of all time and he isn't mobile. He wouldn't take a mobile QB over Brady, just because they are mobile. They need to still be Brady, plus mobile.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if anyone saw this, but Lombardi raised a few eyebrows with this line of thought.
David Lombardi
@LombardiHimself
·
6h
LT Trent Williams
LG Laken Tomlinson
C Alex Mack
RG Mike McGlinchey
RT Penei Sewell
Adam Schefter
ReplyDelete"49ers have been attempting to move into top five picks for several weeks now, per sources. They discussed trading up with Dolphins at 3, Falcons at 4, Bengals at 5 and ultimately decided to go as high as they could, per sources. There were no trade-up talks with the Jets at 2."
Seems strange that they would of settled for the fifth pick if they had the future QB of the franchise targeted.
UC,
ReplyDeleteIf they would have landed on #5 they (imho) could still get Mac Jones if he is their target.
Jones will definitely be there at #3 and if he’s the guy, I’m good with that. Mac isn’t the media darling as the other top 4 QBs but he’s a winner with a championship in his resume.
But if you ask me if I would take Wilson over Jones I would shout “YES!” from the rooftop.
I am not too keen on the whole trade, the scenario I like the best is Lombardi's. That much draft capital makes that unlikely.
DeleteIt's a big risk, but you've got the hc, and structure for the best chance at success. The timing is right on the money.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI hate to say this but I'm starting to sour on Lance quite a bit.
ReplyDeleteYes, he was in a similar offense where he was asked to make calls at the line, and used a lot of play action.
My problem comes when doing a deeper dive into his accuracy. Check out espn's article regarding this.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/insider/story/_/id/31113560/2021-nfl-draft-qb-class-do-stats-match-tape-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-zach-wilson-others#deep
On throws of 20 yards or more It would appear that Wilson leads the way here.
Comp % / Off- Target %
Wilson – 56.6% / 13.2%,
Fields – 56.4% / 27.3%
Jones – 60.9% / 17.4%,
Average – 34.6% / 36.7%
Lance – 32.7% / 36.5%
Here I gave Wilson the Nod as being more accurate due to his off target % being better than Jones but it’s obvious that they are pretty close. Field’s numbers here are also interesting because they are so far apart given that his comp% is nearly the same as Wilson’s, its odd that his off-target % is nearly double that of His.
Other than that what does all this mean? I think you could expect based on these numbers that the only player that would not improve SF’s deep passing game is Lance. In fact it may regress under him.
Ok Fine, what about those under 20 yards, you might ask? Well, Here espn shows their off target percentage for both throws under 10 yards and those between 11-20.
Comp % 0 – 10 Off- Target % / 11 -20 Off- Target %
Wilson – 6.2% / 8.5%
Fields – 6.1% / 6.9 %
Jones – 3.1% / 7.6%
Average – 5.7% / 16.7%
Lance – 9% / 27.6%
I'll start with the 11-20 yard range because these are really the bread and butter throws in Kyle's offense. This is where Fields shines, I’m guessing that this might be because the enter field is open to him, as he is fairly accurate and drive the ball well, this also applies to Wilson. As for Jones, with his arm I think this speaks to his ability to throw with anticipation.
Then we get to Lance, he is below average here and not by a small amount. Worst, he is below average when everyone knows they need to stop the run, NDSU’s play action should have been a huge boon for him in this range. The only thing in his favor is the limited number of throws and how much being off on one could alter his percentages.
Now we are at 0-10 yard range, these are the quick timing based throws. Jones once again leads the way, but this makes sense given his feel for timing and anticipation. What is odd here is that all 3 of the other qb’s are below average in this. I really thought Wilson would shine here with his easy throwing motion, but perhaps this has lead to some bad habits where he throws off platform when he shouldn’t I’ll need to check the tape to verify. Oddly, I also thought Fields would be the worst here with his slightly long delivery but it’s Lance’s numbers that are really troubling.
Looking at these numbers improved my view of Fields tremendously and made me completely out on Lance at 3. The area that Kyle really seems to attack best is the deeper intermediate routes 15-25 yards. These are often the transition areas in zone coverages between Linebacker to safety. Additionally, Kyle will scheme up wide open looks for any qb a few times a game, but they have to find and hit those receivers. Airmailing those throws can change the course of a game. (see Mullens to Juszczyk vs Philadelphia.) Lance’s off-target percentages in this area make him a likely anchor for this offense until he gets these throws better dialed in.
All in all, I highly recommend you read the article, there are other interesting tidbits in there like the fact that Jones has the highest QBR Rating outside the pocket, and it’s only 2 pts off from his QBR Rating inside the pocket. Or that Fields appears to be the most accurate QB in college on out breaking routes.
Yes, interesting article.
DeleteI don't take this as a sign for being down on Lance - he isn't a finished article but he has the tools and from all reports the mental aspects to, imo, be a good pro.
But shows why dismissing Jones doesn't make sense.
Scooter,
DeleteI agree somewhat... he is very much a plutonium grade raw talent. That said, even such raw talents need to be at least average in most accuracy metrics for me to be willing to take them in the first half of the first round.
Right now, he is a slightly smaller, slower version of Colin Kaepernick, and I am not drafting that with a top 20 pick. Additionally his numbers should be hyper inflated, accuracy wise. He's running a play action offense with a dominant run game, on essentially the Alabama of FCS football (If anything NDSU is more dominant at that level).
Believe me, I was originally a big fan of his, but accuracy is my number 1 criteria when scouting a qb. If your qb can't be depended on to get the ball where he's aiming with regularity, all that other physical stuff becomes worthless.
Allen had an accuracy problem as well. Didn't have it this year.
DeleteRazor,
DeleteAllen had a built in excuse for his accuracy issues though. In that, He was running for his life, playing on a team of lesser talent with a poor oline.
Lance, played behind a good oline on a team that had superior talent than their opponents.
Could be, Shoup but I've never seen a player as inaccurate as Allen was become as accurate as he was this past year. Bortles couldn't do it. Maybe Lance can, who knows?
DeleteOk Mac Jones has more the pinpoint accuracy than Trey Lance but Trey Lance had much more velocity on his throws and that gives more options.
ReplyDeleteCompare there first years as a starter its huge.
And before talking about not much games in college how many games had Cam Newton in college? 14 Frigging games.
Difference is Trey Lance did it on a more pro style offense the same offense where Carson Wentz got drafted high and the have the same powerful arm, only difference is that Lance has better decision making and better athleticism so he is a better prospect coming out than Wentz.
I would take Lance and not Fields cuz of his POISE and that Fields has a tendency to stare down Wr's and if you see his games against Northwestern and Indiana oh my.
I personally would only select Lawrence,Wilson and Lance in the top5.
Those guys will give the most succes to Superbowls if our HC and GM think otherwise than we need to have everything right to win a Superbowl with them in charge even that we have a superb defense.
For our offense we need to have a qb who rattles our offense and make them better who lead by example,off platform Playa and results not with average Joes.
Its time to evolve and that the future is for the Josh Allen/Mahomes type of qb's
Robber,
Delete1. I am not arguing for Jones in terms of Pinpoint accuracy. I am arguing against Lance in that he is below average in even in terms of general accuracy, at an FCS powerhouse with receivers running wide open. The fact that he threw the ball 70 yards in the air means nothing to me if the intended receiver had no chance to catch it because it's not near him.
As to your Wentz comparison, Wentz was a better prospect coming out of college. He was bigger, was more accurate and had a stronger arm. Additionally NDSU Coaches relied on him more throwing the ball, He averaged about 12 more throws per game than Lance. When they got in trouble with Wentz they would throw it. When they got in trouble with Lance, they would run it.
Again he had the same arm as Wentz, better decision making and better athleticism and poise./
DeleteRobber,
DeleteWe will just agree to disagree on that. This is not to denigrate Lance arm strength it might be the best in this draft, it's very good. I just think that Wentz had one of the best arm's to come out in a long time. His arm coming out was there with Mahomes, Rodgers, and Allen Imo. In any case it's not really a big deal, the accuracy is. Like I said, I don't care that you can throw the ball a mile if you can't hit what you are aiming at. Not only does it negate having a strong arm, it negates the ability to read defenses properly if you can't get the ball where you want. Every other skill set is secondary to this.
Congrats, you read the defense properly audibled to a better play, saw the blitz coming, saw your hot route and secondary read were covered, side stepped the edge rusher, saw your 3 read wide open for a touchdown and you... airmailed it. All of those great decisions/skills were undermined by the first and most basic skill of a qb.
I value arm strength and mobility greatly and have written about how I prefer the options they give in my argument against going after Trask. It's just that I can't argue for drafting a qb that struggles with accuracy.
Yes im ok with that Shoup hehe.
DeleteOn the tape he looks accurate enough to me but every stat is debatable one guy had this impression and another one had different impression zo Lets see in the NFL who is right.
Poise might be the most important, and most underrated quality a QB prospect can possess. Lance has it in spades! He's advanced well beyond his years. Is he a finished product? Of course not. Does he have the highest ceiling of all of the QB prospects not named Trevor? Probably!
DeleteSay everything you want negatively about Lance what you want Shoup but hey he is a PROVEN WINNER,tough and prepares like a pro.
ReplyDeleteWhile Clemson's Trevor Lawrence is the favorite to become the NFL's No. 1 overall pick in 2021, there are plenty of scouts who believe North Dakota State counterpart Trey Lance could usurp the Tigers junior-to-be by next April.
ReplyDeleteNFL Network draft analyst Bucky Brooks told The Athletic's Bruce Feldman not to be surprised if Lance, who will also be a junior, goes on a Joe Burrow-like ascent this year:
"Trey Lance could emerge as a contender for the No. 1 spot due to his combination of athleticism, poise and playmaking ability. He reminds me a lot of Deshaun Watson with his style of play. He can carve you up from the pocket or use his legs to create plays on the perimeter. He takes good care of the ball. Most important, he wins. With NDSU producing pros at the position, scouts are going to take him seriously as a prospect, and the NFL's shift towards more athletic playmakers at the position could help him climb the charts."
Brooks is far from the only scout expecting big things from the 6'3", 224-pound Lance.
Nicky Brooks even said that Lance can do the same things like Jimmy G except that he has the athleticism that Jimmy G lacks.
Minus the experience but hey look at Carson Wentz except Lance is better than when Wentz declared.
I mean Bucky Brooks.
ReplyDeletePicking Mac Jones is like being happy with Jimmy G or Kirk Cousins i denand more.
Everyone is so convinced that Jones is the apple of Shanny's eye. No way in hell!
Delete@Razor is Jones had more athleticism i could agree but he only has slighter athleticism on Jimmy G so that's why it seems logical that we dont draft him cuz we need Bigger athleticism and better off platform.
DeleteMac Jones completed 12 of 21 passes for 135 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, two sacks and a passer rating of 96.2 on bootlegs. If he can't run boot, then Shanny's not in pursuit.
Delete
ReplyDeleteGeoff Schwartz
@geoffschwartz
·
Mar 26, 2021
This Mac Jones to SF stuff just feels out of control. A Bama QB who had the best OL, best WRs and the least mobile of the top 5 QBs. That's who they gave up multiple first round picks for?
Sage Rosenfels
@SageRosenfels18
SF ain’t drafting Mac Jones. Period.
1:23 PM · Mar 27, 2021
Parsely, Rosemary and Thyme aren't the only ones that know what's up!
Alright...I think there is a chance that they might get Zach Wilson. I was looking at his pro day highlights and one throw towards the end was like WOW! This is what we need. Did some more digging, only red flag seems to be his ADHD, but there are a couple of great set of articles which highlight his character & work ethic.
ReplyDeleteIt is going to be an interesting month till the draft!
Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones in that order. No Fields!
To be fair, While I have been "bashing" Trey Lance. I still think he's a first rounder and an excellent prospect. He has amazing abilities, I just don't like him for this offense.
ReplyDeleteMy reason for thinking this, is that I think he is a guy that requires more of a Cam Newton/Lamar Jackson offense. One where he will be a big part of the running game. These qb's can still be good, but I think you these type of players should be one contract players, because they will get beat up in the NFL.
I hear Mac Jones is now the betting favourite to be the 3rd pick. Razor, wasn't Jones not being seen by odds makers as a likely option at #3 another argument you made against it being him?
ReplyDeletePersonally I think there is now such a strong belief it will be Jones that it smells fishy and won't happen, but what we are seeing is exactly what I was talking about re Wentz in 2016. The tune being sung by the media re Jones is starting to change.
Still not buying, but keep on selling.
DeleteSimms: I'll be shocked if its not Jones to 49ers.
ReplyDeleteAccording to NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, teams around the league believe San Francisco traded up to select Alabama quarterback Mac Jones.
ReplyDelete"The majority of people around the league believe this is for Mac Jones," Jeremiah said. "Of the people that you would want to believe and put your faith in, the overwhelming majority of them believe this is going to be Mac Jones with that pick. So that's what's so shocking."
Jeremiah added that the Carolina Panthers, who own the No. 8 pick, have been the team most linked to Jones this offseason. He believes the 49ers might have traded up to block Carolina from selecting the Crimson Tide star.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-teams-believe-49ers-traded-up-for-alabama-qb-mac-jones/ar-BB1f5ESp?li=BBnbfcL
This is the thing - whether it's Jones or not, the belief it is ridiculous to think Shanahan made this move for him is something I simply have never understood for all the reasons I have laid out previously.
DeleteAnd now we're hearing from highly regarded NFL media who are getting insight from actual NFL teams that teams around the league think it is Jones. The league is higher on Jones than the media and fans have been, and they don't think its crazy that this is what the 49ers are doing.
ReplyDeleteAl Sacco
@AlSacco49
·
7h
Per Matt Maiocco on his podcast: Kyle Shanahan reached out to Jimmy Garoppolo, & Jimmy was “very disappointed” #49ers made the trade.
Let’s use common sense here. I highly doubt Jimmy will be back or would even want to return at this point. Just a matter of when.
Jimmy's feelings hurt are they? Poor, poor, little Jimmy. Really doubt it. Buck it up buttercup. His only out is to, A. Run back home to daddy in New England, or B. Show up in camp, ball out, lead the team back to the playoffs and win it all. Career gets back on track and at a premium price tag.
Delete"Show up in camp, ball out, lead the team back to the playoffs and win it all."
DeleteThat happens and this rook sits for another year.
"That happens and this rook sits for another year."
DeleteYep. That would be a great outcome for the team. They are putting themselves in a position where if JG doesn't deliver, or gets hurt again, they have a guy they consider a top end talent ready to step in. But if JG plays great, they have a talented backup on a relatively cheap contract. Win-win.
Not sure I agree, Scooter. Having a starting QB on a rookie contract allows them to keep high level talent (Warner, Bosa, etc.). Ideally, the rookie plays at a high level right away. Realistically, he is one year away. But if the team has to wait multiple years (ala Rodgers), then no real savings - plus who says that after 3 years or so riding the pine, the rookie will be any good.
DeleteIf JG plays really good, elite level football next year then he is their QB of the present and future. They aren't going to unload him in that situation - they would be mad to. And in that case the team will feel good about the fact they have a relatively cheap and talented backup behind him.
DeleteEven better scenario is that its the rookie that balls out and they have have elite level starting QB on a cheap contract.
Just watched a highlight video of Lance. Virtually every pass play shown was accompanied by an announcer saying "wide open" referring to the receiver. The rest of the time he ran. Definitely reminiscent of Lamar Jackson but with better accuracy. I did like seeing that he ran a number of play action plays which is a staple of KS' offense.
ReplyDeleteWith all the running, injury will be a concern. He'll be playing against much, much stronger men and defenses than he is used to.
If Mac Jones is so good and such a perfect fit for Shanny's offense, why isn't LeFleur demanding Saleh and the New York Jets draft him? Couldn't draw up a more polar opposite to Zach Wilson.
ReplyDeleteI think we all know the Jets gave the 49ers some help. I mean you don't give up one of your offensive lieutenants and your dc to an organization and not have a relationship through those connections. The 49ers don't make that move unless they know what the Jets are doing.
So just to be clear, you're saying that the 49ers know that the Jets will not be taking Wilson?
DeleteIf Wilson is there at #3 the 49ers are taking him. But I do think Shanahan will also like Jones a lot.
DeleteAnd with that in mind... that's why the Jets will take Wilson.
I'm saying maybe the Jets are taking Mac Jones. Why not? Wouldn't Simms be shocked if they didn't?
DeleteSure. Maybe they are. And the 49ers would be fine with it. They like more than 1 QB.
DeleteIf they like so many qb's, why did they feel the need to pay the premium for the right to land the first punch?
DeleteBecause two of them will be gone by pick 3.
DeleteYou sure?
DeleteStill leave 3
No, not sure. But certainly expect that to the the case, as do most people in NFL circles.
DeleteThey moved up to #3. The logical train of thought then is that the team has at least 3 guys it would be comfortable taking.
ReplyDeleteAlbert Breer
@AlbertBreer
49ers GM John Lynch: "We felt like we had a team that can compete. ... We went to ownership, said 'hey things are looking good, we want to make this (trade), but we don't want to say good bye to Jimmy.'"
Ownership signed off on keeping both a rookie and Jimmy Garoppolo.
3:40 PM · Mar 29, 2021·Twitter Web App
In 2020, per Sports Info Solutions, Mac Jones had just 21 dropbacks in which he eventually left the pocket. On those dropbacks, he completed just nine of 19 passes for 99 yards, 71 air yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks, and a quarterback rating of 80.8. Every single one of those dropbacks came under pressure; that is to say that the Crimson Tide called no plays whatsoever in which Jones left the pocket intentionally. Given how adaptive Nick Saban and his coaching staffs have been with mobile quarterbacks over the last few years, you have to think this is less an overall schematic constraint and more an admission that their 2020 star quarterback just had things he’s not able to do.
ReplyDeleteAs a bootleg quarterback, Jones had 23 dropbacks, completing 12 of 21 passes for 135 yards, 63 air yards, three touchdowns, one interception, two sacks, and a passer rating of 96.2.
Why is this a problem? Again, in the NFL, the expectation is that you’re able to deliver just as well outside the pocket as in. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL last season with 169 dropbacks outside the pocket; he finished with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions in such instances. Six other quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff) had at least 100 dropbacks outside the pocket; they combined for 69 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. 16 more quarterbacks had at least 50 dropbacks in which they wound up outside the pocket; those 16 combined for 62 touchdowns and 30 picks. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, who I’d put No. 1 and No. 2 in my quarterback rankings, have no issue with this. They can plug and play when the NFL comes calling.
It also limits Jones’ landing spots if he can’t run boot; there’s no way you wind up in a McVay/SHANAHAN/LaFleur offense if you can’t. And if you can’t effectively make plays on second-reaction throws… well, your real estate options just narrowed even further.
For example, there are concerns about Jones’ mobility. The NFL is experiencing a changing of the guard at the quarterback position, and there are questions about whether Jones is well-suited for a league that is increasingly featuring some of its best athletes behind center. Only 17% of Jones’ throws in 2020 were made off-platform, one of the lowest rates among Power 5 quarterbacks. That kind of stationary play style is tough to reconcile when you consider the way the pro game is trending. Since 2019, about 27% of NFL throws occurred from a compromised throwing base. Pure pocket passers have been viable in the past, but the trend has been shifting towards mobility for some time now.
ReplyDeleteConcerns about Jones’ pedestrian arm are validated by how long his passes spent in flight. Over expectation stats are all the rage nowadays, and we can devise such a method here. Contextualizing air time data with throw depth, where the ball is hashed relative to the target, and the quarterback’s throwing platform creates a baseline we can use to evaluate the relative quickness with which a quarterback’s passes arrive.
In this category, Jones was dead average for a college quarterback, which is not particularly reassuring. Comparatively, the passes of Zach Wilson (-0.08), Trevor Lawrence (-0.07), Justin Fields (-0.03), and Trey Lance (-0.02) all arrived ahead of schedule. But, because it’s difficult to conceptualize how meaningfully different a few hundredths of a second are, this can be put in more practical terms. If Lawrence and Jones both throw a pass that travels 15 yards, we can expect Lawrence’s throw to win that race by about a yard and a half.
There are other proxies by which we can judge Jones’ arm talent. His reluctance to throw to the outermost receiver in trips is one of them. A curiosity of the college-to-pro transition is the change in the playing dimensions. The fields are the same width, but the hashes are nearly twice as wide in college as they are in the pros. As a result, throwing the ball to the wide side of the field is more difficult in college, at least in a Pythagorean sense.
In light of both this phenomenon and the relative inferiority in arm talent, defensive coaches at the college level generally like to know if they need to respect the outside receiver in trips. Wilson (27%), Fields (20%), and Lawrence (17%) came in above the average target rate (15%) to varying degrees, but Jones (11%) fell short of the mark. While this specific aspect is not directly translatable to the NFL, the fact that Jones targeted this alignment at a below average rate could be seen as a feather in the cap of his detractors.
Druckenmiller, Carmazzi, Jones?
DeleteIf we select Jones or Fields than the not selecting of Aaron Rodgers will still haunt us./
ReplyDeleteSince 2005 the Niners have started 15 different QB's. Sounds like the 16th is right on the horizon.
ReplyDeleteOn something completely different, Jaelan Phillips showed out today with a very impressive pro day, while Rousseau was awful.
ReplyDeletePhillips is my number one edge guy by some ways this year. The only reason he isn't a clear top 10 pick is his injury history. While Rousseau is a guy I thought was massively overrated for a while - his stock will be plummeting after this.
If he medical red flags we'll know because he'll drop like a rock.
DeleteFormer NFL general manager Mike Tannebaum is convinced that the quarterback being targeted is former Alabama QB Mac Jones.
ReplyDelete“Absolutely, I think Mac Jones will be the third pick in the draft,” Tannenbaum explained. “I think he is a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan and that offense. He compares very closely to Matt Ryan. As we remember, Matt Ryan had a ton of success with Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. Mac Jones is really good under center, play-action. He is a quick decision maker, which is really important with Kyle Shanahan. He has really good accuracy, and I think the one part about his game is he’s a better athlete than people give him credit for. He has some athleticism, and I think that will play really well in Kyle Shanahan’s system.”
The former NFL GM turned ESPN analyst isn’t the only one who feels this way. Many across the football world believe Jones will be the guy at No. 3 overall.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/the-49ers-are-believed-to-be-targeting-1-player-at-no-3/ar-BB1f5odL?li=BBnbfcL
Per Kyle Shanahan (at his presser today)
ReplyDelete“You want an elite player and of course if you can get a guy who is elite with his arm and can play in that pocket and do everything and still run around and make off-schedule plays. I mean, that's what you've seen with [Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick] Mahomes.“
Mac Jones does not check all the boxes on this comment.
Zach Wilson does, and Trey Lance seems to also fit Shanahan’ description.
I still believe that the 49ers will come out of draft with Zach Wilson, but if it’s not him, Lance is next man up.
What Shanny likes is toughness,hard working and leadership in general, for qb it looks like poise in the pocket,off platform,football IQ.
ReplyDeleteAccuracy but all of the topguys have enough of it.
Figure out who of this bunch coming out fit's this mold.
But i really hope than Shanny and Lynch take into there evaluation that IT and upside should be good into there evaluation.
For me there would only be 2 options.
Funny to read the comments now on who Shanny will pick.
ReplyDelete