Gameday Week 17: 49ers vs Commanders

 

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to gameday live. San Francisco can wrap up the number one seed with a win and an Eagles loss today. Washington has allowed a passer rating of 113.0 this season, highest in the NFL. I expect Brock to bounce back and have a Purdy good day. The Redskins will turn to Howell at quarterback after Brissett got injured. He's been a turnover machine and he'll be going up against a 49ers defense that's been taking the ball away. He'll need the game of his life to pull an upset. I don't see that happening. San Fran big in this one, 33-10. Go Niners!

#49ers inactives today at Washington: QB Brandon Allen (3rd QB) WR Jauan Jennings (concussion) S Ji'Ayir Brown (knee) OL Jaylon Moore (concussion) TE Ross Dwelley (ankle) DL Arik Armstead (foot) LB Jalen Graham

Jingle Bell Brock

Merry Christmas everyone! We've got one final present to open before we wrap it up for another year. Will ShanaClaus give us what we want or will we be left with coal? That depends on whether or not the 49ers defense minus Arik Armstead can stop the run or not. Ultimately, discipline by every defensive player, particularly the defensive line must be exact in their assignments. 

 #49ers are the #1 red-zone offense in the NFL, they convert on 69% of trips. In past four games, they have scored a TD on 13 of their 14 red zone drives, an NFL best 93%. That includes 12 straight touchdowns.

Ravens are the #2 red-zone defense in the NFL, they only allow TDs on 38% of trips.

The Ravens' defense is also 17th in explosive rush rate. They've given up an explosive run on 9.8% of carries this season. The #49ers are #1 in explosive run rate, meaning they go for an explosive run on 14.3% of carries this season.

All Ravens eyes will be on CMC which might mean Deebo and Kittle both have big games. Expect 5-6 screens to Deebo with a fake or two in between to Kittle over the middle. I like the 49ers bigger in this game than the "experts" predict, 37-24. Go Niners!

*Verrett and his 4.38 speed has been promoted from the practice squad to todays game

49ers inactives: QB Brandon Allen (3rd QB) DT Arik Armstead WR Jauan Jennings TE Ross Dwelley LB Oren Burks RB Elijah Mitchell CB Sam Womack

Dirty Purdy

"Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But being this is a . 44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

Players with above a 45% dvoa and .400 epa/play in a single season : 04 Peyton 07 Brady 11 Rodgers 23 Purdy

Some call him a game manager. I call him MVP.

Gameday Week 15: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

 Good afternoon and welcome to gameday live. Today's divisional matchup features the 49ers 2nd most yards, 3rd most points and 1st in DVOA offense against the Cardinals 2nd worst in DVOA, 31st against the pass, 28th against the run defense that's allowing the 3rd most points per game. All added up it points to another beatdown. The Cardinals are coming off a win against the Steelers, and a bye which gives them a big rest advantage. Murray's return has given their offense a shot in the arm, and Conner has given the 49ers some trouble on the ground. The 49ers will be without their starting DT's, and it'll be up to Kinlaw/Givens/Davis to hold the line. Some speculate this is another trap game for San Francisco but listening to the coaches and players, it sounds as if they're locked in like its a playoff game. I like the 49ers to win 41-17 and stay on track to earn that number 1 seed for the playoffs. Go Niners!

#49ers inactives: QB Brandon Allen (3rd QB) RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) LB Oren Burks (knee) TE Ross Dwelley (ankle) G Spencer Burford (knee) DT Arik Armstead (foot, knee) DT Javon Hargrave (hamstring)

WEEK 15: 9ERS VS ARIZONA:

 by Geep

* 1. BP is putting up MVP numbers, Aiyuk has 56 receptions, 1,053 yards and 6 TD's He leads the NFL with 18.8 yards per reception on the season, Deebo Samuel has 45 receptions, 739 yards and 5 TD's. * Christian McCaffrey is the most electric player in the game, with 226 carries, 1177 yards, averaging 5.2 YPC and 12 TD's. He also has 52 reception, 437 receiving yards and 5 TD.
* Then there's TE Kittle, with 811 yards on 53 receptions, ranks 17th in the NFL with 15.3 yards per catch and 6 TD's .
* The 9ers are (10W - 3L) VS Arizona, (3W - 10L). It should be a walk in the park, BUT...Coming off 2 emotional wins over the Eagles and the Seahawks, will the 9ers get caught in a TRAP GAME looking ahead to the Ravens?
* The 9er defense will be missing S Talanoa Hufanga, out with a torn ACL. Rookie safety Ji'Ayir Brown has replaced him. Both starting DT's, Hargrave (hamstring), and Armstead (foot/knee).
* Armstead and Hargrave will be replaced by J. Kinlaw and K. Givens
while Kalia Davis is expected to see action as a rotation player.
* Also, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and cornerback Charvarius Ward are questionable. If Ward is unable to play, Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas will start on the outside, with Isaiah Oliver sliding in at NB in passing situations.
* Fred Warner has picked off a team-leading 4 passes. He also has 107 tackles, five TFL, 2 sacks, and 9 passes defended.
* In terms of passing yards conceded, the 9ers have given up 2,887 (222.1 per game), ranking 15th in the league.
The 49ers are allowing 15.8 points per game, the fewest in the NFL.
* The 9ers have only allowed 6 players to pile up more than 100 receiving yards in a game this season.
* The 9ers have only allowed 12 players to catch a touchdown pass against them this season.
* On offense, Both OG's, S. Burford and A. Banks are questionable. Veteran Jon Feliciano will be in line to start.

* ARIZONA IS RESTED AND COMING OFF A BYE WEEK: * The Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, will be starting! He'll be trying to prove to his FO they should keep him as their future staring QB. After beating the Steelers, the Arizona players will be on an emotional high and will see the 9ers as their chance to show the FO how good they are and why they should remain part of the team!

THE KEY TO BEATING ARIZONA: STOP QB KYLER MURRAY!
* Historically, Kyler Murray is the type of mobile QB that the 9ers have had problems containing. The 9er D-Line will need to play disciplined and keep him in the pocket. DC Steve Wilks explained the keys to defending against Murray.
* "I think it’s a combination of a lot of things," said Wilks. "Number one, we’ve got to be sound in our defensive responsibilities as far as the zone-read, not allowing him to be able to get outside the pocket because he's definitely going to pull it. LAnd then also his ability to be able to scramble and go make a big play.
"I think it's a little different than [Eagles QB] Jalen [Hurts] than what we faced a couple of weeks ago, but it's still the same premise that we’ve got to make sure that we contain him. And once again, I think he's doing an excellent job of going through his progression, trying to stay in the pocket, going through his different reads and putting the ball where it needs to go.”
* Murray is a bigger challenge in space than Hurst, with his speed and elusiveness. Not to mention that he does damage from the pocket and excels on the run for the scramble drill to deliver to his wide receivers. It's crazy to even fathom it initially, but Murray presents challenges that Hurst doesn't.

* PLAYERS NOT NAMED MURRAY THE 9ER D MUST STOP TO WIN
Stop the run: The Cardinals rank 9th in rushing, averaging 123.9 yards per game. Running the ball is the strength of their team, so the 49ers must take away the run to make the Cardinals one-dimensional.
RB Conner James: 129 carries, 631 yards, averages per carry 4.9 yards and 4 TD's.
The 9ers must also be aware of WR Rondale Moore out of the backfield. He's responsible for 156 rushing yards.
TE Trey McBride: Leads Ariz with 56 receptions, 610 yards and 2 TD's
and he'll be matched up against 9er LB F. Warner.
# 1 WR Hollywood Brown: 51 receptions, 574 yards and 4 TD's.
# 2 WR Rondale Moore: 29 receptions, 260 yards and 1 TD
If Ward is unable to play, they'll be matched up by D. Lenoir and Ambry Thomas.
* The Cardinals' offense has had trouble finding the end zone this season, as it ranks 27th in the league with 17.7 points per contest. When it comes to yards, the team ranks 27th with 3,852 total yards (296.3 per game). In the red zone, the Cardinals are not airing it out very often compared to the rest of the league, ranking 6th in the NFL with 39 total red-zone pass attempts (50.6% red-zone pass rate). BUT REMEMBER....The Cardinals QB is Kyler Murray!
I see the 9ers starting slow the first half and having trouble containing
Murray! The key to 9ers winning the game will be Wilks making half time adjustments......
9ers 31 VS Ariz. 17

Purdy Power

 

Brock Purdy has a chance to deliver the most efficient season in NFL history behind pass protection that ranks #22 in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel: "You know, not only are we just throwing the ball across the middle, we throwing it downfield, and so now I think it puts a lot of pressure on teams as they can’t gameplan us like they used to.”

Shots fired across the bay! Getting to the Super Bowl with Jimmy G has to be one of the greatest Heach Coaching achievements in the modern era.

Gameday Week 14: Seahawks vs. 49ers

 Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the 49ers gameday live blog. Today the 49ers get a visit from Pete Carroll's Seattle Seahawks who are struggling to remain relevant. Their starting quarterback, Geno Smith is a game time decision and their backup, Drew Lock will  likely get the start. The 49ers have an opportunity to do something they've never done today,  A. Win 5 straight against the Seahawks, B. Give Pete 4 straight losses in a season, C. Obtain the number 1 seed, (with a Cowboys win), and D. Ruin the Seahawks playoff dreams. Not sure if Wilks will mirror Ward on Metcalf again but it wouldn't surprise me. I'd expect Seattle to maybe move Metcalf around more if that's the case. Seattle will have both their running backs in this game, while the 49ers will be without Mitchell. Mason should get some carries in this game to spell CMC. The 49ers will be without Arik  Armstead which means, Kinlaw will get the start, while, Khalia Davis sees more reps. I don't anticipate a "trap" game for San Francisco due to their early lesson after the Cowboys game, plus their Super Bowl or bust mentality. Stay focused and disciplined are the keys to winning this game. Seattle does come into this game with more rest. With that being said, it's 49ers 27, Seattle 17. Go Niners!

#49ers inactives: QB Brandon Allen (3rd QB) DT Arik Armstead G Spencer Burford RB Elijah Mitchell TE Ross Dwelley CB Darrell Luter DE Robert Beal Jr.

WEEK 14 9ERS VS SEATTLE AT LEVI STADUM

 by Geep

The 9ers enter the game coming off a blowout win over the Eagles while the Seahags enter the game in desperation mode.

* Seahawks Defense vs 49ers Offense:
Purdy is playing at a high level and leads the MVP odds. The engine of the 9er offense is CMC, who is also playing at an MVP level.
If Seattle loads the tackle box to shut down McCaffrey, Purdy will burn them down the field. WR Aiyuk is having a career year, in part due to Purdy’s aggressiveness and accuracy throwing the ball down the field. Aiyuk is on pace to have 77 receptions and 1,432 yards. That's 18.5 yards per catch and he’s the guy Purdy will look to on key third downs.
WR Deebo Samuel isn't having his greatest season, but last week we saw his 3 TD's transformed the game, as the Eagles D was incapable of stopping him! Then there's TE Kittle, who's having a career year and on pace to have his first 1,000-yard year since 2019. This is another product of BP at QB, who looks to Kittle more than JG did.
The 9ers 3Rd WR, Jennings can catche teams sleeping and sneak underneath the attention that Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey garner.

* So how does Seattle match up?
Seattle has a good cornerback duo in 2nd year Tariq Woolen and rookie Devon Witherspoon, but neither of them could tackle the 9ers’ YAC weapons on Thanksgiving night.
The key to victory for Seattle will be to get to BP and pressure him WITHOUT blitzing. Purdy is one of the game’s best quarterbacks when blitzed because he knows where the open man is at all times. Philadelphia learned this the hard way after Purdy went 10-10 for 213 yards and 3 TD's against them when blitzed.
HOWEVER, the 9ers have the 28th-ranked pass-blocking O-Line, so it may be possible for Seattle D to get to Purdy without sending more than 5 rushers and hope their defense can coax a rare mistake out of
Purdy. (good luck with that).
While Seattle D does have a good cornerback duo, their coverage at linebacker and safety doesn’t exist. If they give Purdy enough time, Kittle and CMC will burn them in the intermediate and short passing game. So Seatle’s ONLY path to stopping the 9ers is try to pressure PB without blitzing. And I said before, good luck with that!
For the 9ers? Run the ball and pass deeper occasionally to keep the Seahag's defense honest.

* Seattle offense VS 9ers defense:
The 9ers defense just got done shutting down the Eagles, one of the better offenses in the league......BUT.....
Geno Smith is coming off his best game of his season. if he carries that over in this game, Seattle has a chance at upsetting the 9ers at home. Another big factor is the return of Seattle RB Kenneth Walker III, who was absent from the Thanksgiving match-up. If he's healthy, Walker will provide another dimension to the Seahawks’ offense. Walker is a dynamic running back and it will force the 9ers D to play both the run and pass.
The key match-up in the game will be the battle between Seattle WR D.K. Metcalf and 9ers CB Charvarius Ward. Ward held Metcalf to just three catches and 32 yards on nine targets with two pass break-ups. IWard actually leads the entire NFL in pass breakups and is a huge match-up that will determin who wins the game. Metcalf comes off a game where he completely torched Daron Bland, who was considered part of the Defensive Player of the Year race.
Another match-up that will be key in this game is the chess match between 9ers DC Steve Wilks and Seahawks OC Shane Waldron. Wilks just got done shutting down Hurts and the Eagles’ high-powered rush attack, while Waldron just got done lighting up one of the league’s premier defenses. The Seahawks and the Eagles don’t run similar offenses, but shutting down the Seahags run games will go a long way in taking advantage of the match-up.
Seattle was blown out by the 9ers on Thanksgiving because they were one dimensional on offense. They tried to drop back and pass, with no play-action and didn’t try to establish a run game. That didn’t go too well, to the tune of 6 49ers sacks. This time around, expect Waldron’s offense to center around a heavy rush attack combined with a lot of hard play action and bootlegs. Getting Smith on the move should help alleviate some pressure off his shoulders.

So how do the 9ers stop Smith and the Seahawks’ offense?
Easy, do what they did against the Eagles. Shut down the run, collapse the pocket, and sack Smith.
For the Seahawks? open holes for RB Kenneth Walker, Run play action and get Smith on the move to either side.
Final score: 9ers 38 VS Seattle 24

MVPurdy

 The 49ers cleaned house in Philly. For over a year the 49ers had to endure what could've been had they not lost their qb in the NFC Championship game. All the talk back and forth was a sideshow to the most anticipated rematch all year. Brocky 2 started off rocky in the first quarter but after that the 49ers exorcised their demons with a TD drive to end the half, and a TD drive to start the half, followed by TD after TD after TD. The gameplan defensively was as I expected. Keep Hurts in the pocket and force him to play quarterback. He had time to fry up some eggs and bacon but couldn't cook the 49ers secondary. The defensive line generated 46 pressures all while maintaing gap integrity. The only blemish on the day was when Siriani's mall cop put his hands on Dre Greenlaw and Greenlaw gave him the, "you dealt it now smell it" finger to the nose. Why Siriani needs him standing next to him when he's got 60 guys in full battle gear is a mystery. I'm fully on board the Brock Purdy MVP candidacy and before the naysayers reach for their favorite excuse, I'll leave you with this:

48.5% of Purdy's passing yards this season have came after the catch. the average YAC for the past 10 MVP QBs was 48%. Pat Mahomes was at 54% last year.

Purdy, the 49ers and those six consecutive touchdown drives. Per TruMedia: San Francisco joined the Exclusive Club of team/quarterback combinations to achieve such a milestone. Other Members: the 2019 Ravens with MVP Lamar Jackson; the 2007 and 2009 Patriots with Brady; and the 2001 Colts with Peyton Manning.

Gameday Week 13: San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the live blog of the much anticipated showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles. The concerns over rain affecting the game seem to have discipated as the forecast for kickoff is cloudy and dry with temperatures in the 50's. I expect the 49ers to play their game and get out to an early lead with the Eagles attempting a 4th quarter comeback, but ultimately running out of gas. Their defense has been on the field for over 164 snaps the past two weeks, and they'll be missing their best cover LB, Zach Cunningham. The Eagles struggle to defend the middle of the field and their edges looked porous against the Bills running game. Purdy will need to get rid of the ball quickly to nullify the Eagles pass rush where they have a distinct advantage in the middle and on the right side. The 49ers come into this game with a 3 day rest advantage, preparation and hunger to prove last years NFC Championship game was an aboration. Stop Swift, make Hurts beat you from the pocket, shut down Brown/Smith, just as they were able to do last year, and the 49ers should win this game by 10 points or more. 27-17 San Francisco. Go Niners!

49ers Inactives:

QB Brandon Allen (3rd QB) RB Ty Davis-Price DE Robert Beal Jr. WR Ray-Ray McCloud OL Ben Bartch TE Brayden Willis LB Jalen Graham

9ERS VS EAGLES PLAYER MATCHUPS:

 by Geep

* In 11 games this season, CMC has 1,328 scrimmage yards and 16 TD'S. It's not just his ability to run the ball, you also have to account for his receiving.
* Then there's Kittle, who has 46 catches for 667 yards and 5 TD's. The Eagles have given up 55 catches for 520 yards and 6 TD's to opposing TE's. Also, it's likely LB Zach Cunningham (hamstring) won’t play. That means LB's Morrow and Elliss will start and they'll have trouble double covering either Kittle or CMC.
The question then is, can either Morrow, or Elliss, cover Kittle, or CMC
as a receiver? TBD!
* Eagles CB's vs. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk:
Deebo said Eagles CB, James Bradberry, is “trash.”
The 9ers have a strong 1-2 punch with Aiyuk and Samuel, who are 3Rd and 4Th in receptions this year. Aiyuk has 45 catches for 881 yards and 5 TD's, while Samuel has 34/474/1 this season in 9 games. I see
Slay matching up with the speedier Aiyuk, which would give us all the Samuel-Bradberry matchup we want to see! I look for Deebo to put up some numbers against Bradberry!

* Haason Reddick vs. Colton McKivitz:
The 9ers O line is descent, but have allowed 21 sacks all season, which ranks tied for 4th fewest in the NFL. Left tackle Trent Williams is 35 now but is still playing at an incredibly high level.
A matchup that's in the Eagles’ favor, is Reddick against RT McKivitz.
I look for the 9ers to block Reddick with a backup TE, rather than risk
getting BP injured AGAIN!!!!!
McKivitz was a 5th Rd. pick who's in his 1st season as a full-time starter. He's given up a team-high 5 sacks, 3, QB hits and 27 total pressures (according to ProFootballFocus). So if there’s a weak spot on the line, that’s it and Reddick could have a big performance. And it also really extends to the entire right side of the line. RG S Burford hasn’t been that solid either.
Reddick, 29, has 8 1/2 sacks in 11 games this season and has had another couple taken from him on intentional grounding calls. While Josh Sweat has been the Eagles’ most consistent edge rusher this season. Sweat however, will have to deal with TW in this game.
* McKivitz is a former fifth-round pick who is in his first season as a full-time starter. He has given up a team-high five sacks, 3, QB hits and 27 total pressures, according to ProFootballFocus. So if there’s a weak spot on the line, that’s it and Reddick could have a big performance. And it also really extends to the entire right side of the line. Right guard Spencer Burford hasn’t been that solid either.
* Lane Johnson vs. Nick Bosa:
Getting Johnson back for this one is a big deal. Bosa is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year after an 18 1/2-sack season in 2022. He’s still the best player on the D-line, but there are other pieces to worry about. Javon Hargrave switched sides this offseason and has rushed the QB at a high level. Hargrave is 2nd on the team with 6 sacks. And the 9ers still have A Armstead and they added Chase Young at the trade deadline. The 9ers have 33 sacks as a team so far
this season and would love to add more against the Eagles. 

* D’Andre Swift vs. 9ers run defense:
Swift has been the Eagles’ best RB all season, but even Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott chipped in last week against the Bills. Swift is just 29 scrimmage yards away from 1,000 on the season and he’s been pretty good the last 2 weeks, rushing for 76 yards against the Chiefs and 80 yards against the Bills. He’s also averaged 6.0 yards per carry over the last two games.
The last time these 2 teams played the Eagles had 148 rushing yards but the Eagles were able to build an early lead and kill clock in the 2nd half. THE 9ERS NEED TO SCORE EARLY...Keep the Eagles offense on the bench and keep their D on the field.
* Jalen Hurts vs. 9ers takeaway defense:
Hurts is the favorite to win the league MVP award in 2023 and he’s been playing well, especially in the 2nd halve, to lead the Eagles to wins. But he's turned the football over. Through 11 games, he's thrown a career-high interceptions with 10, and he’s also lost 6 fumbles. His interception percentage of 2.8% ranks 8th in the NFL.
* As we all know, turnovers are a big deal. Especially because the 9ers D is opportunistic. They’re tied for 2nd in the NFL in total takeaways with 21 and they’re first in the NFL with 15 interceptions. The 9ers’ leaders in int's this season are Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga with three apiece. UNFORTUNATELY, Hufanga suffered a torn ACL in Week 11 and is out for the season! Who replaces Hufanga, and how well he plays, could determine the outcome of the game!.
Rookie Ji'Ayir Brown was the next man up on Sunday and had an impact on the game after initially giving up a long completion to Bucs wideout Rakim Jarrett on his first defensive play. Brown ended the game with four tackles, three passes defended (including a key fourth-down pass breakup with the Bucs threatening to make it a one-score game), and the game-sealing interception in the end zone.