Week 8 Matchups to Watch: 49ers at Bears

By Scooter_McG 

Before the season began this looked a like a game the 49ers should win and win easily. But six games into the season, and following four straight defeats, this game is now a must win game to turn the 49ers season around and yet by no means a gimme. Things happen fast in the NFL.

The 49ers are again pretty banged up this season, and this week have lost Kinlaw (for the season, heading to IR), Hurst, Tartt (short term IR), Ford and Al-Shaair, while Trent Williams and Ebukam are questionable, on top of some key long term absentees in Kittle, Mostert, Verrett and Greenlaw. On the positive front, Trey Lance will return this week, listed as the backup QB to Jimmy G, while Kevin Givens has been activated from IR and Jordan Willis returns after serving a 6 game suspension. Despite the injuries, the team is nowehere near as badly hit as last season and there really can be no excuse for the situation they find themselves in. Trey Lance sported a t-shirt with the saying "if not now, when?" emblazoned on the front while training before camp started, and that message should be the 49ers mantra heading into this game.

And there really should be no excuse for this game either. The Bears enter the game with the lowest ranked offense in terms of yards in the NFL, and 30th ranked in points scored. While they have run the ball effectively, the passing game has been abysmal. 

Helping matters for the 49ers will be the absence of Khalil Mack. That should make life easier for the 49ers OTs, especially if Trent Williams can't go. Akiem Hicks is also working through an injury which may limit his impact in the middle. On offense, their lead RB David Montgomery will be missing as well, putting increased pressure on the Justin Fields to carry the team. 

The Bears head coach Matt Nagy will also be missing for this one as he finds himself on the COVID list. However, it is hard to say whether this is good or bad for the 49ers - in fact the Bears offense has looked better whenever Nagy has given up play calling duties. This may be addition by subtraction for the Bears. 

Here are the key matchups I'll be watching in this one.

49ers DL harrassing rookie Justin Fields. Justin Fields has had a pretty rough start to his NFL career so far, throwing just 2 TDs against 6 INTs while averaging less than 150 yards passing in his five starts. A key issue Fields has had is avoiding pressure, due to a combination of some poor OL play and Fields holding the ball too long. As a result he is also averaging 3.6 sacks for 31 yards over his five starts, taking his net passing yards to under 120 per game on average. 

Even without Kinlaw, Ford and Hurst, the 49ers DL should still have plenty of opportunities to pressure Fields. This feels like a key matchup for the 49ers in winning this one. 

49ers secondary vs penalties. No matter how much pressure the 49ers DL generates, the if the secondary continues to commit back breaking penalties giving up chunks of yards the 49ers defense will struggle to stop the Bears putting up points. Let's see whether the week's commitment to teaching the secondary how to defend jump balls and passes downfield has paid off. Because to date it has been an embarrassment. 

Jimmy Garoppolo vs himself. Rightly or wrongly, Jimmy G is under considerable scrutiny and pressure of 49er fans, local media and national media. That will happen when you have a 3rd overall pick QB breathing down your neck and the pre-season playoff expectant team you are leading is on a four game losing streak. And when you are coming off a disastrous game the previous week that deepened the hole your team was already in. 

This is maybe a bit disrespectful of the Bears defense, which is actually quite good (even without Mack). But for mine this really comes down to whether Jimmy G can overcome and avoid his own mistakes. The 49ers defense should be able to keep the Bears offense in check, so then it comes down to the 49ers offense not keeping the Bears in the game through their own mistakes and ineptitude. And a lot of that will fall on the shoulders of Jimmy G.

Kyle Shanahan finding his mojo. In the same vein as Jimmy G, a large part of the 49ers not allowing the Bears to stay in this one, so long as the defense does the job it is expected to, will come down to Kyle Shanahan finding his offensive playcalling mojo. There is a malaise around the 49ers at the moment and Shanahan's energy has looked more and more zapped by the week. He needs to shake it off, come into this game with a strong scripted start and then find a way to keep it going once they get off script. A big win here might just be the infusion of energy the team needs to make a surprise run to the playoffs. 

Kinlaw Is Outlaw

 

Eric Branch

@Eric_Branch

Kyle Shanahan said DT Javon Kinlaw had season-ending knee surgery this week. #49ers 4:29 PM · Oct 29, 2021·TweetDeck

Thursday Night's Musings

 This is the latest:

Tracy Sandler

@49ersfangirl

· 8m

Nick Bosa said he thinks the #49ers are missing the vocal leadership of George Kittle and Raheem Mostert.

Shot Of Inspiration

 The offense looked good against the Raiders. It looked good against the Lions. Then the Eagles punched the 49ers offense in the mouth, and they haven't been the same since. Shanny looks tired and sounds uninspired. They got one guy he trusts at wide receiver, Samuel and one guy he trusts at running back, Mitchell. 

The players are a reflection of the head coach and that's why they've been playing uninspired. Where can Shanny get his inspiration and inject it into this offense? Only one place. The quarterback position and Trey Lance. 

Now, I'm not talking the kind of unprepared kamikaze game plan Shanny had the last time Lance started a football game. I'm talking a real game plan that accentuates his strengths other than just his running ability. Roll him out and take some shots downfield. Get Aiyuk running free and let Lance uncork it. Get these defenses to back off and open up some running lanes. 

I wasn't onboard with going to the rookie quarterback. I fully backed the redshirt year philosophy, but we still have a chance if they can snap this offense out of its melancholy. Trey Lance is the only thing in house that has a shot of doing what Jimmy G did in 2017, if Shanny gives him a real playbook instead of the one from North Dakota State.

Week 7 Post Match Review: Colts at 49ers

By Scooter_McG 

While the 49ers bye week came early this year, it seemed to come at just the right time for the team to regroup and refocus following three narrow defeats to good opponents in games which the team largely beat themselves. This was meant to be the game the 49ers righted the ship, and showed the NFL world the three straight close losses were just a blip. 

If this game showed anything its that if there was a blip, it was the fact they managed to keep those three previous games close. Rather than fixing the various issues that have plagued the team through the first five games, the team leant into them and came out after the bye week with an increased vigour to make those same mistakes. Repeatedly. And over again. 

It all started out so promising, with the team scoring a TD marching up the field easily in its opening drive despite the conditions. It was a masterclass in scripted playcalling, using the Colts aggressiveness and the wet conditions against them with misdirection, rollouts and play action. On the Colts ensuing drive they fumbled the ball, and while the 49ers weren't able to capitalise the fumble was recovered in FG range to make it an early two score lead. 

But as has so often happened this season, the 49ers couldn't put their opponent to the sword when they had them down. They gifted the Colts their first scoring opportunity when Josh Norman let Pittman get by him all too easily on 3rd and 11 and then played the man rather than the ball (it would have been DPI if Pittman hadn't caught it anyway). A couple of plays later Norman let his man run free again for a walk-in TD. 

Another big DPI put the Colts in scoring position again at the start of the 2nd quarter, but Wentz did Wentz things and handed the ball to Al-Shaair deep in 49ers territory. Wentz continued to try and give the 49ers opportunities to build a commanding lead with a number of throws that hit 49ers players, but the defense refused to accept these gifts. The 49ers also got a bit of luck with Nyheim Hines dropping a ball on a 3rd down while wide open. On the next play, Aiyuk let the punt bounce, then tried to pick it up only to kick the ball into the end zone. Instead of getting punished for this awful gaffe, he was rewarded with a touchback. 

But while the Colts tried so hard to give the 49ers the game, the 49ers offense put on a masterclass of three and outs, to ensure the Colts stayed right in the contest. 

It seemed almost inevitable then that the Colts would score off the first turnover opportunity the 49ers gave them. Deebo fumbled a ball in 49ers territory trying to pick up extra yards, and after a Moseley DPI in the end zone the Colts took a half time lead on a Wentz run for a TD. It was a real gut punch for the 49ers in a half in which the only opportunities the Colts had to score came from 49ers mistakes.  

After the half it just went from bad to worse for the 49ers. Instead of the Colts trying to give the 49ers the game it was the 49ers trying to give the Colts the game, with fumbles, INTs and penalties. A foolish Shanahan challenge on a clearly correct ruling typified the 49ers ineptitude in the second stanza. 

There was a small glimmer of hope in the fourth quarter with a quick, 3 play TD drive where Shanahan briefly went back to his rollout, play action game from the first drive. But it was too little too late to overcome the multitude of errors the team committed throughout the game.

In the end the result was a fitting one. The 49ers didn't deserve to win this game with the way they played. And the frustrating part is that it wasn't a case that they weren't capable of winning it, or that the opposition was simply too good. They lost because they played bad, error-prone football that was beneath their talent level. That is a damning thing to say about a team coming off its bye week, with two full weeks to prepare for its opponent, for a homefield Sunday Night Football game, in a game the team needed to win to get their season back on track. 

Right now this is a poorly coached team. There is simply no way around that. Players are repeatedly making mistakes and doing so with no real ramification. I am one that feels the players need to be held accountable for mistakes, but when it keeps on happening the buck stops with the coaching staff. Whatever they are currently doing is not working and the players are not responding. Yes, the effort is still there, so it is good to see the players are still playing hard for their coaches. But you need both effort and execution to win in the NFL, and the execution has been woeful far too often, on far too many plays, to consistently win football games.

Making things worse, the Colts had their fair share of mistakes in this one too. The opportunities were there for the 49ers to build a big lead early. Good teams punish opponent mistakes; bad teams let them get away with it. The 49ers have repeatedly shown they are a bad team this season. At 2-4 the season isn't over. But not many bad teams make the playoffs.    

Sunday Night Football Game Day Live

Aaron Banks is active for the first time this season. 

 
Inactives:

• WR Travis Benjamin
• DL Maurice Hurst
• DT Javon Kinlaw
• QB Trey Lance
• DB Deommodore Lenoir
• CB Ambry Thomas
• T Trent Williams
  

 

Week 7 Matchups to Watch: Colts at 49ers

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football in week 7. Both teams were considered playoff hopefuls in pre-season but currently sit at sub .500 and are in desperate need for a win to get their seasons back on track.  

Both teams come into the game a little banged up and missing some key players. Among the Colts missing the game will be two starting DBs (CB Ya-Sin and SAF Blackmon) out and well as their starting RT (Smith) and veteran WR Hilton. The Colts will welcome back All Pro OG Quentin Nelson this week though. The 49ers meanwhile have some stars missing time on IR at the moment, and this week will be without some pieces at DT (Kinlaw and Hurst), their backup QB in Lance, and potentially star LT Trent Williams. 

To add to the drama, the weather forecast is for high winds and heavy rain, and though probably not as impactful as the monsoon conditions the 49ers played the Washington Football Team in during the 2019 season the weather will have a significant role to play in this one and make throwing, holding onto and kicking the ball far more difficult. 

As a result I think this game can be broken down into three key areas that will win the match: running the ball effectively, the turnover battle, and who can create explosive plays. 

Before I get into my rundown of what I will be looking for in this one, let's all spare a thought for Joey Slye and Michael Badgley, the two kickers in this one. Both kickers enter the game as replacements for injured kickers, with one game under their belts this year, and a career FG percentage below 80%. Kicking in high winds and heavy rain is not a great way to boost your resume and find that long term spot as a team's place kicker. 

Running the ball effectively. In these games played in wet and windy conditions it often becomes very difficult to move the ball through the air effectively. In particular the wind can cause passes to become errant throws and end up in harms way - in fact we saw just that when the 49ers played against the Washington Football Team in 2019, leading to an INT from Jimmy G. 

This puts much greater emphasis on the running game, and being able to effectively churn out yards and pick up tough first downs to keep drives alive, win the field position battle, and put your team in position to score some points which will likely be at a premium. 

Based on how the teams have played so far this season, the running games feel like a clear area which the Colts hold an advantage. Jonathan Taylor has been excellent running the ball and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Their defense meanwhile sits in the top 10 for run defense allowing only 4.1 yards per carry. 

The 49ers on the other hand are averaging only 4.2 yards per carry on offense and are middle of the pack in yards per carry in run defense - though in recent weeks the run defense has significantly improved after a poor start. The 49ers need to turn things around in the running game this week on offense. If Trent Williams is out that may make things difficult, but regardless they need to find a way to get the running game going. Having players stop missing so many blocking assignments would be a good start, and the team can ill afford for Mitchell to have another game like in week 2 where he continuously missed running lanes. It is actually a shame that Trey Lance will miss this one because it is exactly the type of game his athletic ability at QB could make the difference. 

On defense, having Kinlaw out is a blow. While he hasn't lived up to the number 14 overall pick as yet, he does make a difference in the middle against the run. There will be a lot of pressure on the interior DL to step up, hold their ground and keep the LBs clean to stop Taylor and the COlts running game. 

The turnover battle. The turnover battle is always important, but especially so in games where it is difficult to move the ball. Because anything that gives an offense a short field and puts them in position to take some points is a huge boon. 

Turnovers have been very hard to come by for the 49ers defense this season, with only two takeaways through five games. With the team desperate for a win, now would be a great time for the defense to turn things around in the takeaways department and give the offense a couple of short fields to work from. 

On offense, fumbles have been an issue for the 49ers in the past. They cannot afford any ill discipline from a handling perspective in this one, which will put a lot of pressure on the young 49ers backfield to be conscious of ball handling while also finding the right running lanes and fighting for some tough yards. 

Who can create explosive plays. This will likely be what decides the game. Even though both teams will likely set their stall to stop the run, the difficulty in passing the ball will mean explosive plays will be harder to come by than usual, and as a result explosive plays will be more impactful for the team that can create them. 

Creating those explosive plays can come from anything. It might be from a turnover. It might be from a run that gets blocked up perfectly, or resulting from a defender missing a tackle or their assignment. It might even come from special teams - in these games don't discount the importance of a long kick or punt return, or even just getting a couple of excellent punts off the boot.

But in terms of getting explosive plays due to play calling, for the 49ers this feels like one where Shanahan will need to dig into his bag for some very creative run designs, jet motion or short dump offs to get the ball in Deebo's hands and let him go. For mine, the 49ers will win or lose this one based largely on how big a game Deebo has. I will also be looking for some leak plays to be called to give Jimmy G some very open WRs to throw to where pinpoint accuracy is not a requirement.

On defense, stopping Taylor has to be priority number 1, but they can't be too aggressive that they allow Taylor to break a tackle or use his explosiveness to cut back and find daylight. The 49ers also need to be conscious of not biting too hard on the run game they allow open receivers downfield and give up some easy big plays. Carson Wentz has been playing well the past few games but he can be prone to mistakes, so getting in his face early and often any time the Colts look to pass will be important. 

Final Thoughts

All in all this is a game I would actually feel more confident about if it was played in fine weather. The wind and rain will actually be something of a leveller, and may play into the Colts hands with their dominant running game. This is a pivotal game for the 49ers season in many ways, so all players and coaches need to really step up to the plate in this one.