Week 7 Matchups to Watch: Colts at 49ers

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football in week 7. Both teams were considered playoff hopefuls in pre-season but currently sit at sub .500 and are in desperate need for a win to get their seasons back on track.  

Both teams come into the game a little banged up and missing some key players. Among the Colts missing the game will be two starting DBs (CB Ya-Sin and SAF Blackmon) out and well as their starting RT (Smith) and veteran WR Hilton. The Colts will welcome back All Pro OG Quentin Nelson this week though. The 49ers meanwhile have some stars missing time on IR at the moment, and this week will be without some pieces at DT (Kinlaw and Hurst), their backup QB in Lance, and potentially star LT Trent Williams. 

To add to the drama, the weather forecast is for high winds and heavy rain, and though probably not as impactful as the monsoon conditions the 49ers played the Washington Football Team in during the 2019 season the weather will have a significant role to play in this one and make throwing, holding onto and kicking the ball far more difficult. 

As a result I think this game can be broken down into three key areas that will win the match: running the ball effectively, the turnover battle, and who can create explosive plays. 

Before I get into my rundown of what I will be looking for in this one, let's all spare a thought for Joey Slye and Michael Badgley, the two kickers in this one. Both kickers enter the game as replacements for injured kickers, with one game under their belts this year, and a career FG percentage below 80%. Kicking in high winds and heavy rain is not a great way to boost your resume and find that long term spot as a team's place kicker. 

Running the ball effectively. In these games played in wet and windy conditions it often becomes very difficult to move the ball through the air effectively. In particular the wind can cause passes to become errant throws and end up in harms way - in fact we saw just that when the 49ers played against the Washington Football Team in 2019, leading to an INT from Jimmy G. 

This puts much greater emphasis on the running game, and being able to effectively churn out yards and pick up tough first downs to keep drives alive, win the field position battle, and put your team in position to score some points which will likely be at a premium. 

Based on how the teams have played so far this season, the running games feel like a clear area which the Colts hold an advantage. Jonathan Taylor has been excellent running the ball and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Their defense meanwhile sits in the top 10 for run defense allowing only 4.1 yards per carry. 

The 49ers on the other hand are averaging only 4.2 yards per carry on offense and are middle of the pack in yards per carry in run defense - though in recent weeks the run defense has significantly improved after a poor start. The 49ers need to turn things around in the running game this week on offense. If Trent Williams is out that may make things difficult, but regardless they need to find a way to get the running game going. Having players stop missing so many blocking assignments would be a good start, and the team can ill afford for Mitchell to have another game like in week 2 where he continuously missed running lanes. It is actually a shame that Trey Lance will miss this one because it is exactly the type of game his athletic ability at QB could make the difference. 

On defense, having Kinlaw out is a blow. While he hasn't lived up to the number 14 overall pick as yet, he does make a difference in the middle against the run. There will be a lot of pressure on the interior DL to step up, hold their ground and keep the LBs clean to stop Taylor and the COlts running game. 

The turnover battle. The turnover battle is always important, but especially so in games where it is difficult to move the ball. Because anything that gives an offense a short field and puts them in position to take some points is a huge boon. 

Turnovers have been very hard to come by for the 49ers defense this season, with only two takeaways through five games. With the team desperate for a win, now would be a great time for the defense to turn things around in the takeaways department and give the offense a couple of short fields to work from. 

On offense, fumbles have been an issue for the 49ers in the past. They cannot afford any ill discipline from a handling perspective in this one, which will put a lot of pressure on the young 49ers backfield to be conscious of ball handling while also finding the right running lanes and fighting for some tough yards. 

Who can create explosive plays. This will likely be what decides the game. Even though both teams will likely set their stall to stop the run, the difficulty in passing the ball will mean explosive plays will be harder to come by than usual, and as a result explosive plays will be more impactful for the team that can create them. 

Creating those explosive plays can come from anything. It might be from a turnover. It might be from a run that gets blocked up perfectly, or resulting from a defender missing a tackle or their assignment. It might even come from special teams - in these games don't discount the importance of a long kick or punt return, or even just getting a couple of excellent punts off the boot.

But in terms of getting explosive plays due to play calling, for the 49ers this feels like one where Shanahan will need to dig into his bag for some very creative run designs, jet motion or short dump offs to get the ball in Deebo's hands and let him go. For mine, the 49ers will win or lose this one based largely on how big a game Deebo has. I will also be looking for some leak plays to be called to give Jimmy G some very open WRs to throw to where pinpoint accuracy is not a requirement.

On defense, stopping Taylor has to be priority number 1, but they can't be too aggressive that they allow Taylor to break a tackle or use his explosiveness to cut back and find daylight. The 49ers also need to be conscious of not biting too hard on the run game they allow open receivers downfield and give up some easy big plays. Carson Wentz has been playing well the past few games but he can be prone to mistakes, so getting in his face early and often any time the Colts look to pass will be important. 

Final Thoughts

All in all this is a game I would actually feel more confident about if it was played in fine weather. The wind and rain will actually be something of a leveller, and may play into the Colts hands with their dominant running game. This is a pivotal game for the 49ers season in many ways, so all players and coaches need to really step up to the plate in this one.