By Scooter_McG
Before the season began this looked a like a game the 49ers should win and win easily. But six games into the season, and following four straight defeats, this game is now a must win game to turn the 49ers season around and yet by no means a gimme. Things happen fast in the NFL.
The 49ers are again pretty banged up this season, and this week have lost Kinlaw (for the season, heading to IR), Hurst, Tartt (short term IR), Ford and Al-Shaair, while Trent Williams and Ebukam are questionable, on top of some key long term absentees in Kittle, Mostert, Verrett and Greenlaw. On the positive front, Trey Lance will return this week, listed as the backup QB to Jimmy G, while Kevin Givens has been activated from IR and Jordan Willis returns after serving a 6 game suspension. Despite the injuries, the team is nowehere near as badly hit as last season and there really can be no excuse for the situation they find themselves in. Trey Lance sported a t-shirt with the saying "if not now, when?" emblazoned on the front while training before camp started, and that message should be the 49ers mantra heading into this game.
And there really should be no excuse for this game either. The Bears enter the game with the lowest ranked offense in terms of yards in the NFL, and 30th ranked in points scored. While they have run the ball effectively, the passing game has been abysmal.
Helping matters for the 49ers will be the absence of Khalil Mack. That should make life easier for the 49ers OTs, especially if Trent Williams can't go. Akiem Hicks is also working through an injury which may limit his impact in the middle. On offense, their lead RB David Montgomery will be missing as well, putting increased pressure on the Justin Fields to carry the team.
The Bears head coach Matt Nagy will also be missing for this one as he finds himself on the COVID list. However, it is hard to say whether this is good or bad for the 49ers - in fact the Bears offense has looked better whenever Nagy has given up play calling duties. This may be addition by subtraction for the Bears.
Here are the key matchups I'll be watching in this one.
49ers DL harrassing rookie Justin Fields. Justin Fields has had a pretty rough start to his NFL career so far, throwing just 2 TDs against 6 INTs while averaging less than 150 yards passing in his five starts. A key issue Fields has had is avoiding pressure, due to a combination of some poor OL play and Fields holding the ball too long. As a result he is also averaging 3.6 sacks for 31 yards over his five starts, taking his net passing yards to under 120 per game on average.
Even without Kinlaw, Ford and Hurst, the 49ers DL should still have plenty of opportunities to pressure Fields. This feels like a key matchup for the 49ers in winning this one.
49ers secondary vs penalties. No matter how much pressure the 49ers DL generates, the if the secondary continues to commit back breaking penalties giving up chunks of yards the 49ers defense will struggle to stop the Bears putting up points. Let's see whether the week's commitment to teaching the secondary how to defend jump balls and passes downfield has paid off. Because to date it has been an embarrassment.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs himself. Rightly or wrongly, Jimmy G is under considerable scrutiny and pressure of 49er fans, local media and national media. That will happen when you have a 3rd overall pick QB breathing down your neck and the pre-season playoff expectant team you are leading is on a four game losing streak. And when you are coming off a disastrous game the previous week that deepened the hole your team was already in.
This is maybe a bit disrespectful of the Bears defense, which is actually quite good (even without Mack). But for mine this really comes down to whether Jimmy G can overcome and avoid his own mistakes. The 49ers defense should be able to keep the Bears offense in check, so then it comes down to the 49ers offense not keeping the Bears in the game through their own mistakes and ineptitude. And a lot of that will fall on the shoulders of Jimmy G.
Kyle Shanahan finding his mojo. In the same vein as Jimmy G, a large part of the 49ers not allowing the Bears to stay in this one, so long as the defense does the job it is expected to, will come down to Kyle Shanahan finding his offensive playcalling mojo. There is a malaise around the 49ers at the moment and Shanahan's energy has looked more and more zapped by the week. He needs to shake it off, come into this game with a strong scripted start and then find a way to keep it going once they get off script. A big win here might just be the infusion of energy the team needs to make a surprise run to the playoffs.
Yup the Niners first must stop beating themselves then they can focus on beating the Bears.
ReplyDeleteYep, exactly.
DeleteI think the Bears have a top 10 defense. It'll be a good test for Shanny. Weather won't be an issue. I think Fields has as much sack yardage as we do in penalty yards. My prediction: Hufanga intercepts Fields and takes it to the house! Thanks for an excellent article, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteThat would work for me! Thanks.
DeleteYes, Scooter, thanks. Another very good one.
ReplyDeleteKyle looks extremely low energy and depressed, and I’m starting to wonder if it’s more than football, some issue at home perhaps. A sick wife or kid, something like that. Maybe his mom or dad. Like I said, just wondering.
Thanks George.
DeleteObviously I hope you are wrong on that George, but yeah, he does look like something is affecting him. For the 49ers sake they need him to figure out a way to snap out of it. A big win would help.
Very nice write up, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteNiners will stop beating themselves and win this game -- begin the turnaround, and the pall of negativity weighing down the Niners' fandom will lift.