(Over)Reacting to the first four days of training camp

Photo courtesy of 49ers.com 

By Scooter_McG

The first four days of training camp are in the books, and we have been getting some exciting and interesting news coming out of those practices. As expected, Jimmy G and Trey Lance have headlined the stories of camp so far, though there have been some other notable developments. 

Here is what has stood out to me from the reports on training camp over the past four days.

1. Trey Lance is looking good. Yes, there have been some rookie mistakes and some rookie moments, but so far everything sounds like it is very much trending the right direction for Lance and the 49ers. He's completed a number of downfield passes over the first four days of camp and seems far more willing to sling it to the intermedaite and deep areas than Jimmy G. From what I have read and heard it sounds like he has been showing everything you want to see from your future franchise QB through his first four days of NFL training camp - poise, good arm strength and accuracy, decision-making, pocket awareness, willingness to play within the structure of the offense, and willingness and ability to take chances downfield when the defense gives them the chance. On day 4, he also demonstrated his ability to extend plays by avoiding pressure and pick up yards with his legs. After practice on day 4, DeMeco Ryans acknowledged Lance's ability to move and run, combined with his play from the pocket, puts extra stress on the defence, which is exactly why Shanahan loved his skillset. 

2. Jimmy G has looked like Jimmy G. After a strong opening day, Jimmy G has reportedly seemed tentative and unwilling to take chances. Reports on days 2 and 3 were that Jimmy G barely threw the ball 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. On day 4 it sounds like he tried to be a bit more aggressive, but it resulted in indecision, some off target throws and turnovers. This is nothing new for Jimmy G - when he's confident he can look great, like he did Day 1. Other times he can struggle to operate an offense that asks him to push the ball further than 5 yards downfield. We know the 49ers can win games with Jimmy G at QB... but why settle for the inconsistency when you don't have to? The competition for the starting QB spot could heat up sooner than many had thought.

3. The defensive line is really deep, especially the interior of the DL. Pretty much all of the notable defensive tackles on the roster have looked good so far. The only exceptions have been those not practicing due to injury (Kinlaw and Hurst). And surprisingly the defensive ends have looked pretty good too, with both Ebukam and Key making plays, especially on days 3 and 4. With a healthy Bosa and Kinlaw, this unit could be very good. Even without them they may be surprisingly decent. But... practices so far have been without pads, which tends to favour the defensive line. We will know more once the pads go on. 

4. Mike McGlinchey looks back to his best. Slim Mike is now Big Mac once again, after adding 25 lbs this offseason, and through four days of camp the extra weight seems to really be helping. But as noted with the defensive line, we will know more once the pads go on.

5. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel look really good. Both players have been the clear standouts among the receivers and favoured targets of the QBs. Even over George Kittle. Somewhat surprisingly, Deebo has been showing off a more rounded skillset, making plays at all three levels. 

6. The third WR spot may already have a favourite. The competition for the third WR spot was expected to be a hotly contested one, but it sounds like there may already be a leader in the clubhouse. Mo Sanu has received plenty of praise from both players and coaches, and could be in the box seat to grab that spot. The other player that seemed might be the main challenger after days 1 and 2 was Jalen Hurd, who based on reports sounded like he was moving very well coming back from his injuries, but he is now once again a big question mark after missing days 3 and 4. Hopefully it is only a minor setback for Hurd.

7. Marcell Harris is no longer a safety. The safety position looked like it may have a bit of a logjam, but turns out the 49ers have moved long time backup SS Harris to LB this offseason. And from all reports it sounds like he has looked pretty good. 

8. Talanoa Hufanga won't be outworked. Hufanga apparently has also seen some time at LB, though there hasn't been much else reported about his play on the field. However, one thing that has been noted is that Hufanga is routinely one of the first out to the practice field and one of the last to leave. That kind of work ethic is what gets late round picks onto a roster and onto the field early in their careers, and keeps them in the NFL. 

9. The running game has struggled. Again, worth pointing out that without pads the offensive line is at a disadvantage, but so far it sounds like bar a handful of explosive runs, the 49ers running game has struggled by and large, with many running plays being completely blown up by penetration. However, one guy that has had some positive reps is Elijah Mitchell, who reportedly has been more willing to test the middle of the defense. 

10. Verrett isn't resting on last year's success. Jason Verrett has had a couple of strong practices as he looks to build on his bounce back 2020 season. This has included an INT as well as multiple pass breakups. When healthy Verrett is clearly the team's best CB. 

11. CB depth is a concern. With Moseley on the COVID-19 reserve list, Tim Harris has been getting starting reps opposite Verrett. This has prompted the 49ers to look at some outside help with Dre Kirkpatrick brought in for a visit. I expect a veteran CB to be added sooner rather than later.   

-350

 One of our long time posters, George thought it'd be fun to give our odds on Jimmy Garoppolo being the week 1 starter for the San Francisco 49ers. I believe the oddsmakers have him at -350. For myself, as long as Jimmy stays upright, he's the starter with an 85% probability rate. Let's hear everyone else's take!

Signed, Sealed and Delivered

 He's yours, Shanny. Trey Lance has signed his rookie deal and will be in house ready to compete against Jimmy Garoppolo throughout training camp. May the best man win!

 4 years @ $34.1 million contract with a $22.2 million signing bonus. The $34.1 million is guaranteed, and the 49ers have the option to pick up a fifth-year option after Lance’s third season.

Training camp primer

By Scooter_McG

Finally! The long break waiting for training camp to start is drawing to a close, with the 49ers training camp set to start next week. So now is a good time to run through each of the position groups and the key things to look at for at each throughout camp:

QB: Let's start with the big one, the one most people will be focusing on. Jimmy G enters as the incumbent and as the guy the 49ers front office and head coach continue to indicate will be the starter in 2021. But he's the starter... until he isn't. He's no longer the future of the 49ers. QBOTF Trey Lance will be prepped to at least be the backup QB, so will get a lot of reps through training camp to get him ready to contribute if and when called upon. Given the type of player and person he is, you can bet he will come into camp well prepared and ready to compete. If he shows he is across the offense, he will be given every opportunity to compete for that starting job. You can expect that 'Trey Lance watch' will be the theme of most off season reports from the local beat writers. 

Lost in the hype of the impending Jimmy G and Trey Lance battle is the team also needs to figure out who the third QB will be. While much more low key, the battle between Nate Sudfeld and Josh Rosen will also be intriguing. Will Rosen start to show his talent? Or will Rich Scangarello get his man?

RB: The RB room is potentially one of the more loaded groups on the team. Which should make for some interesting training camp battles and tough roster math by the end of the training camp. Juice will obviously be the FB, but the tailbacks are in a bit of a logjam. Wilson's injury provides a little more breathing space for the rest of the group, but the jostling for roles between Mostert, Sermon, Gallman, Mitchell and Hasty will be fun to watch. Can Sermon take the lead RB role from Mostert? Can Mitchell surprise and carve out a significant role, or will Gallman's experience and professionalism see him fight off the challenge? And can Hasty surprise in year 2 and beat any of the others for one of the (likely) four tailback spots on the 53-man roster.   

WR: In my opinion, this is potentially a more intriguing position group than QB. After Deebo and Aiyuk there is a whole lot of question marks. Which is why the 49ers have been looking to add a WR to the roster since the offseason program began. I will be looking closely to see if a player stands out early in camp to take the lead for that third WR role. The players I will be paying attention to will be Hurd, Sanu, Sherfield, James, Benjamin and Jennings. But don't write off any of White, Cracraft, Fowler, Watkins and Jones - this is the most unsettled and uncertain group on the team. Return specialist Nsimba Webster was also recently added, and the team's need for a consistent return man may give him a leg up on making the roster. Don't be surprised if the 49ers continue to look for more additions at this position. 

TE: The number 1 TE role is clear-cut with George Kittle. But how will the rest of the TE group shake out? Dwelley and Woerner are the incumbents and would seem the most likely to be TE's 2 and 3, respectively. They play different roles, with Dwelley more the pass catching TE and Woerner more the blocking specialist (though he is still inexperienced and athletic, so may grow to be more than just that). There are a few wild cards here though. First, the team signed MyCole Pruitt, previously of the Titans. Pruitt distinguished himself as a high quality blocking TE with the Titans and could put pressure on Woerner for that role with the 49ers. Levine Toilolo was an important if unheralded part of the 2019 49ers success running the ball, and they didn't adequately replace him in 2020. Pruitt may be just the man to do it. The other wild cards for mine are actually WRs - big guys like Hurd and Jennings may get looked at as options to take over from the role Jordan Reed was signed to play last season. Effectively a big slot. Another key question that they will need to answer is how many TEs will they keep on the roster? 

OL: 4 of the 5 starting spots appear to already be sewn up on the OL, with Williams (LT), Tomlinson (LG), Mack (C) and McGlinchey (RG). The RG spot, however, is up for grabs. Rookie Aaron Banks will no doubt be a guy to watch and one that the local beat writers and fans keep close tabs on - he was drafted in the 2nd round and expectations will be high that he can win that job. But Brunskill has proven to be a capable performer in a variety of roles and won't be easy to beat out for a rookie. And don't rule out Colton McKivitz - the team was very high on him last year and with a full offseason program under his belt he may be primed to make a strong run for a starting role. 5th round pick Jaylon Moore is also in the mix. Obviously the three players that miss out on the RG starting role will be in the mix for key backup roles, but another interesting battle may be for the swing OT spot. Shon Coleman has been unlucky so far in his time with the 49ers, but this may be his opportunity to win that swing OT role. With Skule out for the year, McKivitz and Moore seem like his main competition, though Brunskill also showed his versatility to play OT in 2019. Senio Kelemete was signed when Skule got injured and may also be in the mix, but would appear to be on the outside looking in. 

DL: The DL will be an interesting one, not only to see how roles shake out, but also how key players come back from injury, and how they line up. The successful return of Bosa, and potentially also Ford, will be vital to the success of this unit. The team signed DEs Ebukam and Key, but neither have proven to be consistently good pass rushers in the NFL as yet. It would appear Armstead is set to stay at DE the majority of snaps. This may not be what many fans want, but could be a sign of how the defense is evolving, with the team happy to sacrifice pass rush on first and second down for more size and strength, to allow them to play less 8-man boxes on early downs while still being ready to stop the run. Looking at the DTs on the roster further supports this idea. Leaner DTs like Buckner and Thomas are now gone, replaced by bigger, stronger DTs such as Kinlaw and Kerr. The rotation of Kinlaw, Jones and Kerr should ensure the team is stout up the middle. Kevin Givens and Maurince Hurst will provide some pass rush juice at DT, likely more as subs on later and obvious passing downs. Other players to keep an eye on will be Kentavius Street and Jordan Willis, though Willis will miss the opening weeks of the regular season due to suspension.

LB: All Paid Fred will headline this unit, with Greenlaw his main sidekick. But after the two main starters there are some question marks. Nate Gerry looked like he might be in the mix for the third LB spot, but was recently released after getting injured in offseason work. The three main options for the third LB role now appear to be returning 49ers Al-Shaair and Flannigan-Fowles, as well as new man James Burgess. All three players have primarily been STs players so far in the NFL. Undrafted rookie Justin Hilliard may have an opportunity to work his way onto the 53-man roster. An X-factor that may play into roster decisions is how the team wants to employ their safeties. The likes of Marcel Harris, Tavon Wilson and rookie Talanoa Hufanga could be options to see action in place of a third LB. 

CB: Verrett, Moseley and Williams would appear to be set as the starters at CB. A bit like the WR room, after the starters there is some question marks. Rookies Ambry Thomas and Demo Lenoir could be in line to be the 4th and 5th CBs, and could see plenty of action early in the careers. Dontae Johnson returns (again) to provide much needed depth and experience. After that, the team has the likes of Ken Webster, Tim Harris and Mark Fields - none of which inspire much confidence. I wouldn't be shocked if the team added a low price vet to the group just before camp starts. 

S: Safety could be another low-key very intriguing training camp group to watch. Jimmie Ward will be one of the starters and a defensive leader for the team. But after that, there are plenty of interesting battles to watch. Tartt would appear the most likely candidate to return in a starting role opposite Ward, but the team didn't prioritise re-signing him. The team has brought in Tavon Wilson and Tony Jefferson, two highly experienced starting safeties that should be right in the mix for that starting job. Of note, Jefferson is not much of a STs player, meaning his value to the team diminishes significantly if he doesn't earn a significant playing time role on defense. Wilson on the other hand is an excellent STs player, and would seem likely to make the roster regardless of whether he earns significant playing time on defense. Marcell Harris returns as well, and could be in the mix for the starting safety position, but the decision to bring in extra competition suggests the team doesn't expect Harris to make that position his own. Rookie Hufanga may have a tough time earning much playing time as one of the deep safeties as a rookie, but as mentioned previously, he and Harris could be in the mix to play a little closer to the line of scrimmage as a big nickel/ dime safety/LB hybrid. 

Specialists: Robbie Gould, Mitch Wishnowsky and Taybor Pepper all return as the specialists. The main battle of interest here will be the punt return specialist. Newly signed Nsimba Webster may earn himself a roster spot purely through lack of other reliable options.  

Let the battles begin!

The 500 Club

 The 2020 49ers offense scored 376 points, averaging 23.5 points per game. That was with Nick Mullens and friends. The 2021 49ers offense boasts a huge upgrade behind the oft injured Jimmy Garoppolo by moving up to the 3rd pick in the draft to select Trey Lance. I'm going to predict this years offense puts up over 500 points in a 17 game season, averaging around 30 points per game. 

Let's take a look at the upcoming schedule:

• Week 1: 9/12 at Lions, 1 PM, Fox 
• W
• Week 2: 9/19 at Eagles, 1 PM, Fox
• W
• Week 3: 9/26 vs. Packers, 8:20 PM, NBC
• L
• Week 4: 10/3 vs. Seahawks, 4:05 PM, Fox
• L
• Week 5: 10/10 at Cardinals, 4:25 PM, Fox
• W
• Week 6: BYE
• Week 7: 10/24 vs. Colts, 8:20 PM, NBC
• L
• Week 8: 10/31 at Bears, 1 PM, Fox
• W
• Week 9: 11/7 vs. Cardinals, 4:25 PM, Fox
• W
• Week 10: 11/15 vs. Rams, 8:15 PM, ESPN
• L
• Week 11: 11/21 at Jaguars, 1 PM, Fox
• W
• Week 12: 11/28 vs. Vikings, 4:25 PM, Fox
• W
• Week 13: 12/5 at Seahawks, 8:20 PM, NBC
• W
• Week 14: 12/12 at Bengals, 1 PM, CBS
• W
• Week 15: 12/19 vs. Falcons, 4:05 PM, CBS
• W
• Week 16: 12/23 at Titans, 8:20 PM, NFL Network
• L
• Week 17: 1/2 vs. Texans, 4:05 PM, CBS
• W
• Week 18: 1/9 at Rams, 4:25 PM, Fox
• W
• 12-5 record and another division title if they're able to avoid that injury tsunami

49ers extend All-Pro LB Fred Warner to record deal

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers said the deal to extend Fred Warner was just a matter of time, and that they saw him as a long term 49er. Of course, they said similar things about DeForest Buckner, so nothing was guaranteed. But on Wednesday, with the start of training camp looming, the 49ers indeed struck a deal that will make All-Pro LB Fred Warner the most expensive LB in the NFL. 

Warner is reportedly signing a five year extension worth up to $95M, with $40.5M guaranteed - or $19M per year in new money. The extension will keep him with the 49ers until 2026. 

While the average for the deal is $19M per year, some of this will likely be brought forward to 2021 in the form of a signing bonus, so his salary cap impact over the five new years will likely be lower than $19M. But don't expect too much to be brough forward - the 49ers don't have a lot of cap space available in 2021. 

The details of the contract will be interesting to see how much of the cap hit they push into later years. 

Signing Warner now is a smart move - the longer they waited the more likely it was that Darius Leonard would set the market, and the 49ers would likely be forced to pay more for Warner. 

Matthew 9

 

With the recent admission that Shanny is concerned about the marriage between the "great" quarterback, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, I thought it might be appropriate to go down the list of pro's and con's of the Rams new gunslinger.

Pro's:

He'll be playing in a proven offense with better wide receivers. 

Never had much of a running game. He'll have one with the Rams. He'll be that more dangerous. 

He's tough as nails. He's not gonna flinch like Goff in the face of pressure or after hitting him. 

He's no longer playing for the Detroit Lions.

Con's:

Never won a playoff game. At 33, he's yet to show he elevates the play of those around him.

Rams defense is on the decline. Sure they've still got Donald, and Ramsey but they lost quite a few defensive coaches and the rest of the defense is no names. 

He's old at 33 due in part to poor body maintenance. He's got a bad back. Taken a beating behind his porous offensive lines over the years. 

"I mean, this past year was bad," Stafford said. "I had the partially torn UCL in my right thumb, I tore my UCL on my left elbow on the second to last play of the Houston game that nobody knew about, trying to stiff arm a guy. That's why I started wearing a sleeve on my left arm because I had all sorts of tape underneath it, just to hold it in place.  I broke my cartilage on my eighth rib in Green Bay. I also tore something [in the back of] my left knee. And then I had a subtalar, right ankle sprain.”

The Rams offensive line has a new coach, and they'll also have a new center. They'll want to emphasize the passing game with Stafford under center. It looks as though they are mimicking the 49ers recent moves to beef up the front with Corbett at pivot and Evans at RG. It's going to take time to gel. 

Is Stafford an upgrade? You bet he is, as long as he's still standing. He'll be playing in a tougher division. What other pro's and con's can you add to this list?

Best of Pod - the evolution of the 49ers defense

By Scooter_McG

While things are currently slow in the football world, there have been some very interesting podcast episodes in recent weeks that pertain to the 49ers. 

Cubus recently linked a podcast episode of Flying Coach with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan which was excellent, and provided some great insight into the minds of both coaches. I highly recommend giving it a listen if you haven't already. Some of the main things that stuck out to me were:

• Kyle Shanahan confirmed he was interested in Matt Stafford. Based on the disucssion it doesn't sound like they were ever close to getting a trade done and never made a formal offer. However, it sounded like the 49ers were going to make an offer but he was traded to the Rams before it happened.  
• Both Kyle SHanahan and Sean McVay indicated they have great respect for Jon Gruden, who they both worked for at the Bucs. Sounded like working for Gruden was an outstanding learning experience and Gruden's knowledge of football was unparalleled. 
• Both of them worked as quality control (QC) coaches for Gruden (at different times), and McVay worked as Shanahan's QC in Washington. Shanahan really highlighted the importance of and reliance of the OC/HC on the QC coach, as they are the ones that break down the film. It makes me think it will be worth following the coaching career of former Shanahan player Leonard Hankerson, who was recently hired to be an offensive QC coach by the 49ers. 

Another podcast I listened to recently was a Locked on 49ers podcast, where they discussed an episode of the The Athletic Football Show regarding how defenses are evolving. It is worth listening to both the Locked on 49ers episode and the Athletic Football Show episode they discuss, as it helps explain some of what we are seeing with the 49ers. 

One of the key things noted in the episodes is that offenses have evolved to combat and attack the cover 3 defense specifically, given the proliferation of that defense in the NFL. Coaches see the cover 3 defense as primarily a run stopping defense, as it provides 8 men in the box. So defensive coaches like using it on first and second downs. The Seahawks made it popular by also changing a few of the rules of the defense and the types of players they look for to help against the pass.

What was noted in the podcast episodes is that offenses have been targeting cover 3 defenses with deep crossers and over routes, and routes that then work off these routes, as that is the areas of the field the cover 3 is typically weakest against. Offenses are also moving towards focusing on a limited number of concepts but multiple ways of running those concepts - including lots of motion. This helps simplify things for the QB, makes defenses declare their coverage, and creates confusion on defenses as it becomes harder to recognise/ diagnose a play based on personnel and where players line up. Part of this evolution on offense in recent years has also been more heavy personnel packages, with TEs, RBs and FBs that are all also threats in the pass game. I'm sure we can all recognise these are things Shanahan in particular uses a lot of, and it is gaining traction in the NFL as more and more coaches from the same coaching tree become HCs and OCs.  

Mobile QBs that provide a threat from boot action have also been part of the reason for this shift, as these types of plays make it more important to start with some depth on defense and not over commit to coming forward, while still keeping eyes in front to see if the QB runs. 

Defenses are now starting to move away from cover 3, not just on passing downs but also first and second downs, as offenses are finding more and more success against it, especially with explosive plays between the LBs and safety. They are moving towards more quarters and 2-high coverage to defend the big plays against the deep crossers and over routes that attack cover 3, which the Shanahan offense uses a lot of, by keeping an extra safety deeper. 

Anyone that has been following the 49ers closely over the past two seasons will recognise the 49ers are one of the teams leading this change to use more quarters/ 2-high on early downs. Vic Fangio of course has been running it forever. Quarters/ 2-high provides more flexibility for a defense, however, it can be more susceptible against the run. Despite this, defensive coaches are becoming increasingly content with allowing a slightly higer average yards per carry in order to defend the explosive pass plays.  

As teams move away from 8-man boxes, the body archetypes are also changing for defenders. Again, we can see this evolution occuring with the 49ers. 

Quarters/ 2 high doesn't require the long, athletic CBs as much as the cover 3, so teams can play with smaller guys that are more versatile. There is also a greater need for safeties that are high IQ guys that are more interchangeable and have the skills to play any type of coverage and diagnose plays quickly. A guy like Jimmie Ward, and also Tartt when he can stay healthy, can be seen as important peices for the 49ers. 

The LBs also need to be smarter and quicker so they can diagnose quickly and cover a lot of ground. This is what makes Fred Warner so important to the 49ers. Greenlaw also provides a nice, balanced skillset.  

A key change that is happening, and we can see quite clearly with the 49ers, is an increased need for a strong DL that can hold up against the run, as you no longer have the extra man in the box. As the hosts on the Athletic Football Show outlined, you can live with a 290lbs DE that is more of a run defender than pass rusher, as you need guys that can plug gaps more than elite penetrating guys. Of note, on the Athletic Football Show they said teams are starting to move more towards being fine having just one or two really good pass rushers and a bunch of bigger guys that can defend the run. 

They may as well have been discussing the 49ers when talking about the DL. All of a sudden the 49ers moves at DL in recent years make more sense. Bosa is an excellent pass rusher, but also a very good run defender. The team is happy keeping Armstead at DE most downs, as that 290lbs DE that plugs gaps. And the team was happy to trade Buckner, a highly penetrative 3T, and replace him with a big, powerful DT in Kinlaw. The 49ers have remade their DL to first and foremost stop the run, to allow the back seven to focus on stopping explosive pass plays. 

Another interesting tidbit from the podcasts was an expectation of the hosts that pressure packages will evolve and change to compensate for teams that don't have multiple excellent pass rushers. They expect to see lots of stunts, games and blitzes, disguising where the pass rush is coming from and designed to free up the better pass rushers as much as possible. They also expect cover 1 usage to increase. For the 49ers, this is interesting as it appears to already be in motion - this increased aggressiveness is something that 49ers players have said DeMeco Ryans will be bringing in this year. And the CBs the 49ers have been bringing in recently are players that are more suited to man coverage.

The evolution of offenses, and how defenses are changing in response, also helps provide some further insight to why Trey Lance was the guy the 49ers wanted. A pure pocket passer can be great, but will limit what you can do on offense and allows defenses to defend 10 players. A pocket passer than is also a threat running the ball makes teams play 11 on 11, and allows the offense to continually evolve to take advantage of where defenses are weakest.  

Gerry Meandering

 The 49ers have waived linebacker, Nathan Gerry. Maybe they've liked what they've seen from Justin Hilliard. His chances to make the team have certainly increased.