The 2020 49ers offense scored 376 points, averaging 23.5 points per game. That was with Nick Mullens and friends. The 2021 49ers offense boasts a huge upgrade behind the oft injured Jimmy Garoppolo by moving up to the 3rd pick in the draft to select Trey Lance. I'm going to predict this years offense puts up over 500 points in a 17 game season, averaging around 30 points per game.
Let's take a look at the upcoming schedule:
- Week 1: 9/12 at Lions, 1 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 2: 9/19 at Eagles, 1 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 3: 9/26 vs. Packers, 8:20 PM, NBC
- L
- Week 4: 10/3 vs. Seahawks, 4:05 PM, Fox
- L
- Week 5: 10/10 at Cardinals, 4:25 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 6: BYE
- Week 7: 10/24 vs. Colts, 8:20 PM, NBC
- L
- Week 8: 10/31 at Bears, 1 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 9: 11/7 vs. Cardinals, 4:25 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 10: 11/15 vs. Rams, 8:15 PM, ESPN
- L
- Week 11: 11/21 at Jaguars, 1 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 12: 11/28 vs. Vikings, 4:25 PM, Fox
- W
- Week 13: 12/5 at Seahawks, 8:20 PM, NBC
- W
- Week 14: 12/12 at Bengals, 1 PM, CBS
- W
- Week 15: 12/19 vs. Falcons, 4:05 PM, CBS
- W
- Week 16: 12/23 at Titans, 8:20 PM, NFL Network
- L
- Week 17: 1/2 vs. Texans, 4:05 PM, CBS
- W
- Week 18: 1/9 at Rams, 4:25 PM, Fox
- W
- 12-5 record and another division title if they're able to avoid that injury tsunami
Razor, did you post this? I appreciate your POV, and I think I know your signature style well enough by now to guess that you are the author of this post. IMO, it would probably behoove you to attach your name to your blog posts.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, how many games do you predict Trey Lance will start. Posting offensive production number predictions seems reliant on who's the starting QB for the majority of the season.
I initially felt like the Niners would end up trading Jimmy before the start of the season, IF they aren't expecting much in return for the veteran QB, AND they were able to find a willing trade partner. However, the way Kyle has continued to talk openly about how disappointed he was in not being able to find an experienced replacement for Jimmy G this off-season (which seems counterproductive if you are hoping to trade him), that he could really care less whether or not the team trades Jimmy, or just flat out releases him prior to the start of the season. However, if that were the case, wouldn't make more sense to pay Fred Warner more this season, if they are planning on wiping Jimmy's contract off of the books before the start of the season?
So now, after considering Warner's back-loaded blockbuster deal, logically speaking, I have no choice but to reconsider the QB situation. Not that Kyle isn't more-than-ready to move on from Garoppolo, but it seems like Kyle would rather ride with Jimmy early this season, until he either gets hurt again, or Lance makes it impossible for Kyle not to make the change at QB, BENCHING Jimmy G in the process. It seems like Kyle might be just as happy to keep Jimmy on the team for insurance purposes, knowing he's going to go to his young progeny at some point in the season. My best guess, if Jimmy is actually still on the roster come week 1, is that Jimmy starts week 1, with Trey Lance penciled in (not written in stone) as the starter following the bye week, which comes after the week 5 game VS the Cardinals. Jimmy will be on a SHORT LEASH though, even if he is the week 1 starter, and could be benched after any one of those games if he struggles like we've seen in the past. After all ... Garoppolo has a history of getting off to slow starts at the beginning of the season, and I for one have very little confidence left in the kid. He's been unable to get out of his own head, post knee reconstruction. The reality of that injury is that some guys can regain most, of not just about all of their former athletic ability, and some guys don't! Some guys can move past it mentally, and some guys can't! The Jimmy Garoppolo who was making ALL of the plays at the end of 2017, is not the same Jimmy Garoppolo who couldn't get out of his own way at times during 2019, and even worse in 2020. Not only has Jimmy not grown as a QB since he came the Niners, he's actually regressed. And even considering how well the rushing attack was working in the postseason, it was obvious that Kyle was protecting his healthy QB as well! That's really not debatable, and it's also unsustainable!
And for those who keep saying that Jimmy got the 49ers to the Super Bowl ... my comeback is, it's more like Kyle's 49ERS got HIM to the Super Bowl. The fact is, the 49ers defense carried them in the first half of the 2019 season, and then the running game carried them into and through the postseason.. some guys never do for whatever reason.
So, back to the Niners' 2021 offense - I pose these 3 question to all of you guys:
1) How many games will Jimmy G start in 2021?
2) How many games will Jimmy G start and WIN in 2021?
3) If Jimmy does play, what will his TOTAL QBR be for 2021? (Both formulas have flaws, but ESPN's TOTAL QBR is superior to the laughably generic PASSER RATING, IMO)
Just me and Scooter posting right now.
DeleteJimmy's the man until he goes down, and then it's over. I expect him to stay upright and play his best football. That's why I have them finishing the season as division champions with a record of 12-5.
I'm with you on this.
DeleteI think Jimmy will have a great season. Pocket Qb's need a pocket to work within, he's never really had that in SF and that should change this year. In fact I think he could look like a top 5 qb for a few games.
Shoup / Razor
Delete* I agree with your 2021 season 12W - 5L prediction!
* Center Alex Mac and RG Daniel Brunskill. The players that will keep JG upright and healthy to start the season. * I expect Aron Banks will take over the RG position during the season.
I hope the team doesn't use Trey like the Saints used Taysom Hill. That is when the team is moving, pull your QB that has the team moving for some gadget play that more than often failed to succeed. I used to cheer whenever Payton would pull Brees for Hill.
DeleteAgreed, Rib.
DeleteOh, I thought there were a handful of you guys contributing. Well, I like your stuff Razor, and good for you, being on the Jimmy G train ... Choo Choo! It sounds like you're on the Jimmy G redemption tour. That would be fantastic. I wish I had your confidence in Jimmy, but sadly I don't.
ReplyDeleteJimmy is probably going to be the week 1 starter, but he will likely continue to be inconsistent, like he mostly has been post ACL tear. The 49ers are a very talented team, so even with Jimmy's inconsistencies the 49ers keep pace near the top of the conference. However, it's impossible to deny talent, and Trey will have everyone convinced, including some who are currently in Jimmy's corner, that he's too talented to sit behind an inconsistent Garoppolo. At some point, the pressure builds, and Kyle gets tired of protecting Jimmy from himself, so he finds some kind of excuse to hand the ball to The Prodigy - aka TREY LANCE, and Trey takes the ball and never gives it up again, on his way to multiple Super Bowl rings!
I am on the Trey Lance train ... Choo Choo!
Good stuff guys.
ReplyDeleteI like the possible scoring average and the W/L record.
I'm not crazy about the pattern of losing games to strong teams. This does not bode well for the 49ers if they want to make a deep playoff run.
The idea of averaging 30 PPG is nice, if the defense can hold teams to an average of 17-25 pts we will be playoff material. Still, some concern about losing to strong teams.
Jimmy G and the 49ers vs. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in a playoff game would be media gold.
DeleteI'm in agreement with Razor about the record (insert health disclaimer here). Razor does have the Niners sweeping AZ and splitting the rest of the division - Nearly everyone has those teams in the "good" category.
DeleteAs in the last SB team, I also think they will let down against a team or two they should beat (Falcons, anybody?) and beat the pants off highly regarded teams (see NO, Packers). Speaking of the 2021 Packers, whither Rodgers? With Rodgers, Niners would be a tough out for the Packers (again, insert health disclaimer here). Without Rodgers, it's Niners in a rout.
Thanks AES, I agree.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: How much has the QB situation affected the Niners' overall record VS good, strong teams? Keep in mind that the OL was good, not great.
Can Trey Lance make the difference against those teams as soon as mid-season (or even sooner)?
How do you feel about starting Trey week 1, trading Jimmy, and declaring Josh Rosen the #2?
My thing is that I think this current QB situation can work until Jimmy gets benched, and then it could be a problem. I don't want the rookie having to look over his shoulder, just because Jimmy has taken the team deep into the postseason in the past, even if Jimmy was hardly the reason why they made it as deep into the postseason as they did, all the way to the Super Bowl.
I'd just as soon trade Jimmy before week 1, and hand the ball to the young gun! Trey appears to be a different breed, and wouldn't it be something to be the first rookie to win a Super Bowl?
49Reasons
DeleteThose are good questions and points. Unfortunately, I don't have any answers. Back in May, I felt that it was important to keep Garoppolo as the starter because it would give Lance the opportunity to grasp the playbook and not having to be rushed into the starting role.
My current line of thinking is that the job is Garoppolo' to lose. If he falters and Shanahan feels that Lance is ready to play then I'm fine with the change.
I expect the Oline to be much stronger than last season. If Banks wins a starting spot he can hold the position for years. McGlinchey needs to bounce back and Mack greatly improves the Center position. Tomlinson is better than average. So this combination looks solid right now.
The other thing regarding Garoppolo' knee injury is that it happened the year before he went to the SB. Last season JG was grounded by a persistent high ankle injury. The knee seemed to hold up fine.
I believe that even if Lance doesn't start that Shanahan will insert him on special situations.
As I said last week, many of our questions will be answered in training camp - the way it should be.
AES,
DeleteI think I am in agreement with you.
While it's obvious that Jimmy's time is numbered, right now he is the one that knows the offense the best. That should make him more decisive in his reads, which coupled with his better accuracy, should make him the early favorite.
This will change as Lance gets more comfortable but I highly doubt he will be the better qb (when healthy) at any point this year.
That said, I hope Lance gets the Montana treatment, and is given a few opportunities a game.
I just don't think Jimmy is as good now, post knee reconstruction, as he was back in 2017, and if you're not getting better as a QB, and are actually getting worse, then your not a QB who can be counted on.
ReplyDeleteNot to even mention his inability to stay healthy. I mean, he suffered fairly severe high ankle sprains TWICE last season, and he was barely touched both times! SMH! I just can't keep rooting for him much longer, in part because he's no longer the future of the franchise!
"I just can't keep rooting for him much longer, in part because he's no longer the future of the franchise! "
Delete49R, that's a silly statement. Mostert was unavailable most of last season and Niners drafted two RB studs. Does that mean you won't be rooting for Mostert either?
I actually worded it wrong, rib.
DeleteI will be rooting for the Niners, regardless of who's playing QB.
However, I've lost all confidence in Jimmy, so I'm not going to be able to give him the benefit of doubt any longer. I may be in the minority, but I no longer think Jimmy gives this team their best chance of winning. The sooner they can get Trey up to speed, the better. And that means he's going to need to take his lumps early on. I'd rather he took his lumps early in the season, so that he's best prepared to start for this team down the stretch. I think he stands a better chance of winning a SB as a rookie, than Jimmy does, because Trey doesn't have to light it up through the air in order to elevate Kyle's offense.
We know that, even when he's healthy, Jimmy is good for at least one boneheaded INT per game. We also know that Jimmy no longer has the ability to extend plays.
It's obvious that Kyle has lost confidence in Garoppolo. Do we really want to spend another season with the training wheels on Kyle's offense, or even 1/2 a season? Winning this division won't be easy, and some of these early games could be the difference.
I think Trey can be the difference maker this season, but he can't be the difference maker if he's not on the field.
ReplyDeleteAaron Wilson
@AaronWilson_NFL
San Francisco 49ers worked out Justus Reed and Eddie Vanderdoes
5:43 PM · Jul 23, 2021
ReplyDeleteChris Tomasson
@christomasson
Talked to FA WR Dede Westbrook. He's in Twin Cities now Confirmed workout with #Vikings Saturday, Said Seahawks 49ers Bengals also in mix. Has Seattle workout scheduled Monday “If Minnesota doesn’t end up pulling the trigger as far as a contract I'll fly out to Seattle (Sunday)."
5:35 PM · Jul 23, 2021
Niners are always in the mix :) Doing due diligence and preparing to make fast decisions if necessary in case of injuries...
DeleteTHIS WOULD BE BIG, LETS HOPE IT'S TRUE:
ReplyDeleteFred Warner on Dee Ford: He looks great. He’s back! The 49ers star linebacker spoke highly of Ford during an interview with KNBR on Friday.....
Fred Warner on Dee Ford: He looks great.
In their first media availability during the offseason, San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch said that edge rusher Dee Ford was often rehabbing at the team facility. That was back in March, as Ford was recovering from neck and back injuries that forced him to miss the majority of the 2020 season.
Fast forward to July, and we’re less than a week away from the Niners starting training camp. Many feel that Ford providing any help to the defense this season would be a luxury, given his injury history.
On Friday morning, Fred Warner made it sound like Ford will be a big part of the Niners pass-rush this year:
“Yeah, Dee, he’s great. He looks great. He’s back. I’ve seen him plenty, and he’s been working his tail off. I know the type of player that he is, and the fact that he’s back healthy is going to give us a huge advantage, so I’m really excited about seeing him back. I know his mind is right. His mentality is exactly what we need for the defense.”
https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/7/23/22590702/49ers-fred-warner-on-dee-ford-he-looks-great-hes-back
I read that yesterday and don't know what to think. IF Ford is out of the garage and ready to hit the road, this defense will be outrageous.
DeleteSeems that everything is pointing in the right direction for Ford. But the actual indicators will follow a few padded practices.
DeleteYou're right Mood.
DeleteThe gauntlet (TC) separates the real actors ftom the rest of the pack.
Can't wait to see our 53 man roster.
Great piece, Razor! With a full off-season of practice, I think it's totally achievable for this offense as long as the key pieces stay healthy. Another way to look at the goal would be to exceed a season average of "30-by-30" -- 30 points per game by running the ball 30 times.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Mood. 30/30 rule is a good one, and one I think they could achieve.
Delete