NFC Championship Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

 

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the live blog for the 49ers NFC Championship game. Looks like the game plan defensively should be to flush and contain Hurts. His numbers drop 50% when forced out of the pocket to a 37% completion rate, 4.2 ypa, 52.5 qb rating. If they can flush him out, while not giving up running lanes, that could put a wrench in their offense. Hurts' under pressure accuracy rating (5.3) 31st and pressured catchable pass rate (52%) 29th. In 2022, against designed quarterback runs or quarterback option runs: the 49ers defense ranks 1st in ypa allowed at 2.6. The Eagles used shotgun formation 90.4% of the time in the regular season, the highest in the NFL. San Francisco ranked 2nd in defensive DVOA (-12.5%) against shotgun this season. Should be a cracking good game. I have the 49ers coming out on top, 24-20. Let's go Niners!

Inactives: QB Jimmy Garoppolo CB Ambry Thomas OL Nick Zakelj DE Drake Jackson TE Ross Dwelley RB Ty Davis-Price RB Elijah Mitchell

The #49ers’ defense is No. 1 in yards per attempt allowed at 2.6.

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NFCCG Game Preview: 49ers at Eagles

By Scooter_McG

It's NFC Championship Game time! The two best rosters in the NFL (at least imo) will go toe to toe on Sunday for the chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. 

The 49ers enter their third NFCCG in four years boasting what may well be the strongest roster they've had under Kyle Shanahan. And that's saying something - the 2019 roster was stacked as well, and definitely had the stronger DL, but I think overall talent-wise this 2022 roster is better, in particular on offense. 

Standing in the way is what I believe is the only team in the NFL that can make a legitimate claim of potentially having a stronger overall roster than the 49ers. This is a really talented Eagles team that has playmakers at just about every position. If both teams play close to their potential then this could be an all-time epic contest. 

To get a feel for just how good this game should be, we have the #2 team in overall DVOA (49ers) against the #3 team in overall DVOA (Eagles) - incidentally these two teams are also the highest ranking teams in DVOA of the four teams remaining. 

We will be getting the #3 team in the NFL in offensive DVOA, points and yards (Eagles) against the #1 defense in all three categories (49ers). That in itself should be a great watch. Key for the 49ers will be to not allow the Eagles excellent OL dictate terms up front and make sure the running game is stifled. This includes making sure Jalen Hurts is unable to find easy lanes both on designed runs and scrambles. A lot of pressure will be placed on the 49ers DEs and LBs to maintain their discipline while still being quick to react and shut the running game down while putting pressure on Hurts when he drops back to pass. The trio of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert have all had excellent seasons also, and with the pressure on containing the run this will leave the 49ers secondary in some uncomfortable positions throughout the game. The secondary will need to hold up against these receivers and get some help from the 49ers pass rush to make Hurts throw out of sync to try and force some turnovers.    

The other side of the ball will be just as good. The 49ers have the 6th ranked offense in DVOA and points for, and fifth in yards, facing an Eagles defense ranked 6th in defensive DVOA, 8th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. The Eagles pass defense is the scariest in the NFL this season as they racked up 70 sacks while forcing 17 INTs and allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL. Four different players had 11 or more sacks in the regular season for one of the most prolific pass rushes in NFL history. However, interestingly, while the Eagles had considerably more sacks than the 49ers, both teams were pretty similar in overall pressure rates. The 'weakness' for the Eagles lies in their run defense which ranked 24th in yards allowed per carry. The 49ers will need to exploit the Eagles run defense both in terms of consistently picking up positive yards to stay ahead of the chains as well as forcing the Eagles to play the run aggressively so Purdy and the receivers can attack the middle of the field behind the LBs. 

At the end of the day I see this game being won by two key metrics: (1) turnovers, and (2) third and longs. The team that is able to force the most will probably win.   

Get your popcorn ready.  

Divisional Round Game Review: 49ers vs Cowboys

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers booked passage to their third NFCCG in four years after defeating the Dallas Cowboys 19-12 in an old fashioned slugfest. It was high drama and tense throughout and while not high-scoring, delivered an engrossing game. 

Both teams came to play in what was a highly physical confrontation where both defenses had the better of their opposing offense for most of the game. The 49ers were held to just 312 yards of total offense while the Cowboys were only able to tally 282 yards, with each team getting into the end zone just once each.

In the end the game really came down to a few key plays. The 49ers got two huge INTs in the first half, the first of which gifted the 49ers 3 points and the second of which took at least 3 points off the Cowboys and allowed the 49ers to close out the half with another FG to take the lead. The 49ers did return the favour with a turnover of their own in the second half when McCloud fumbled a punt return, which the Cowboys were able to level the scores at 9-9. 

But after trading punts, the 49ers got a big play from George Kittle who juggled the ball numerous times before latching on just before a Cowboys defender could knock the ball away for a 30-yard gain which got the 49ers rolling for their lone TD drive of the game and putting them in control in the fourth quarter. 

While this wasn't Brock Purdy's best game by any stretch, against easily the best defense he has faced to date he once again did enough to keep the team moving the ball and avoided back breaking plays. He ended up outplaying Dak Prescott in this one and that was a key factor in deciding the game. 

MVP of the game for mine goes to Fred Warner. He was immense throughout, displaying his elite coverage skills a number of times, including coming up with one of the INTs, while also being a key cog in the 49ers smothering the Cowboys running game. But there were a number of his defensive teammates who also deserve recognition for their contributions including Arik Armstead, Demo Lenoir and Jimmie Ward. It was an excellent defensive effort all round. 

Robbie Gould's reliable boot was also an important factor as points were at a premium and he hit all 3 of his FGs plus the extra point despite some swirling winds. 

With the Eagles and 49ers winning it sets up what should be an absolute belter of an NFCCG between two teams that in my opinion are the two most talented rosters in the NFL.    

Divisional Round Game Preview: 49ers vs Cowboys

By Scooter_McG

There really is nothing better than a playoff game between two old rivals. Last weekend we got to see the 49ers dismantle the hated Seahawks in the second half of their Wild Card Weekend matchup, and it was truly delightful. This weekend we'll be getting to see the 49ers host the Cowboys in the Divisional Round, sparking memories of what was one of the greatest feuds during the 80s and early 90s. 

The matchup has added spice given how the 49ers were able to upset the Cowboys in the first round of last years playoffs. Listening to some of the Cowboys players this week and it is clear that last year's loss has haunted them and they see this one as a personal redemption game. The 49ers should expect a lot of emotion out of the Cowboys in this game, which can be a funny thing - focused emotion can either lead a team to great heights but let it get the better of you and it will bring ill discipline and mistakes. 

For the 49ers, on the other hand, the focus has appeared to be less on the opponent and more on taking care of their own business. From all reports practices have been laser focused and the players have been making statements about the intensity and energy they need to bring to this game to come away with the win. Matching the energy and emotion of the Cowboys early will be a key aspect of this game and if they are able to force the Cowboys into some mistakes early could lead to the Cowboys emotions boiling over and giving the 49ers a big advantage. 

Both teams go into the game with a mostly healthy squad, though the Cowboys will be without LT Jason Peters. That could be a big loss for the Cowboys as it will pit their rookie OL Tyler Smith against Nick Bosa. Smith is ranked 62 out of 64 in ESPN's pass block win rate and leads the NFL in holding penalties called this season. After being held without a QB hit last week, this feels like it is ripe for a Nick Bosa master class.

That spells trouble for Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who has been turnover prone this year, though that isn't all his fault as his receivers haven't helped him out. But with the 49ers leading the league in turnover differential, the propensity of the Cowboys to turn the ball over this season and the loss of Peters at LT are factors to pay attention to and in a battle of two talented teams could well be the difference. 

A key area the 49ers defense will need to be wary is stopping the Cowboys dynamic RB Tony Pollard, while also making sure Prescott doesn't hurt them with his legs. The Seahawks gave the 49ers defense some trouble in the first half last week as they were able to establish the run, though the 49ers defense did a better job in the second half. I am sure DeMeco Ryans has made this a point of emphasis this week. I am also sure he has made tying the pass rush and coverage together on 3rd downs a point of emphasis as this was another area of concern in the first half last week, and the Cowboys ranked 5th in the NFL this season in third down conversions. 

One of the most intriguing matchups in this game for the 49ers will be seeing how Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense holds up against the Cowboys #2 ranked defense (based on DVOA). This will easily be the most talented and best defense Purdy has faced. The Cowboys pass rush in particular is very dangerous and will put a lot of pressure on the 49ers OL to hold up and give Purdy sufficient time to get comfortable in the game. The strength of the Cowboys defense is their pass defense; against the run however they ranked 22nd in the NFL in terms of rush yards allowed. The 49ers will likely look to stress the Cowboys on the ground with multiple ball carriers and looks, and help Purdy get comfortable through play action. 

This promises to be an exciting game and one that both sets of fans can make sound arguments why their team can win. Hopefully come Sunday evening it will be 49ers fans that are celebrating!

Wild Card Round Game Review: 49ers vs Seahawks

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers are through to the second week of the playoffs after demolishing the Seahawks in the second half to win the game 41-23. The 49ers scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives to open the second half and came up with two big takeaways to blow the game wide open and secure the win.

This game was expected to be a blowout for the 49ers and the second half was certainly that. However, the game looked like it was going to be an arm wrestle in the first half, in particular the second quarter, where the Seahawks scored 17 points to lead the 49ers by one at the half. After two 3-and-outs by the 49ers defense to open the game, the team struggled to stop the Seahawks running game and had issues getting off the field on 3rd downs. The offense also helped keep the Seahawks in the game by failing to convert good drives into touchdowns, having to settle for three FGs and a lone TD on five drives in the half. 

Brock Purdy looked uncomfortable in the first half, with a number of off target throws and poor reads. The offense was still able to get into scoring positions though courtesy of some excellent play calling and big plays from the skill positions. On defense, Kenneth Walker and DK Metcalf gave the 49ers all they could handle. In the end it was a case of the Seahawks playing their best football against a 49ers team that was a little out of sync, and in the end the 49ers should still have been ahead at the half if it wasn't for a very stupid late hit by Jimmie Ward on Geno Smith to allow a last second FG on the stroke of half time.

I'm not sure what Shanahan and the coaching staff said at half time, but I'm sure it wasn't complementary and whatever it was it certainly did the trick. 

The second half saw a different Brock Purdy. Instead of the off target and jittery player we saw in the first half we got a player that was back to finding his open player in space and on time. We saw a player that had a tremendous feel in the pocket and ability to extend plays in a way that allowed him to find guys after a play had broken down. We saw a confident QB that took what could have been his worst performance as the 49ers starting QB and turned it into one of the more memorable. He finished the game with a stat line of 18/30 for 332 yards, 3 TDs (all in the second half) and just the one sack taken, as well as 4 runs for 16 yards and another TD on a QB sneak in the first half. He should have had a fourth passing TD at the end of the game after some incredible work to extend the play but Aiyuk was unable to hold on in the back corner of the end zone. To understand how good the second half was, he was 9/19 with no passing TDs in the first half. 

The offense finished with 505 total yards and had 10 explosive plays on the day, including a 68 yard run by McCaffrey and a 74 yard catch and run by Deebo for a TD, both of which really showcased how well the 49ers block for each other. 

The defense had their struggles, but in the second half they came up with two big turnovers that effectively sealed the game. The first turnover was from a strip-sack by Omenihu deep in the 49ers half where it looked like the Seahawks would at least cut the deficit to just 3 points. The 49ers turned that into another TD and a 14 point lead. The Seahawks then started to panic and came up with some drive killing penalties on the next drive, giving the 49ers the ball back cheaply. When most people would have expected Shanahan to start milking the clock he instead went for the jugular with back to back passes to Deebo, the second of which he turned into the 74 yard catch and run TD and a three score lead. The defense then put the game away on the first play of the Seahawks next drive as Lenoir came away with the INT. 

This game really showcased how hard the 49ers offense is to defend when all the skill players are available and the QB is able to play efficient football as well as get the team out of bad situations. Excluding the final drive to end the game, the 49ers had nine possessions and scored on eight of them (4 TDs and 4 FGs). The three TDs to start the second half put significant scoreboard pressure on the Seahawks and forced them into errors which sealed the game. With Brock Purdy at QB we are finally seeing a 49ers team where it is the offense that is winning the games rather than needing the defense to do all the heavy lifting, though the defense has done a good job of being opportunistic in the second half of the year to seal the deal. We are also finally seeing what Shanahan's offense can look like when he has a QB that he trusts to throw the ball when teams are setting themselves to stop the run. 

Moving forward, hopefully the nerves we saw from Purdy in the first half are now out of his system after getting this game under his belt and the performance he put on in the second half. The defense also has some kinks to work out, though it is unlikely we see Charvarius Ward play as poorly as he did today again this season. More concerning was the inability to stop the run effectively in the first half and the struggles on third down, both of which are areas the team has generally performed well this season. 

Now we wait to see who the 49ers play next week!  

Wild Card Round: Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

 The 49ers limped into the season and have finished on a 10 game winning run. Welcome everyone to the first round of the 2023 NFL playoffs, where the 49ers will face off against their old nemesis, Pete Carroll and his Seattle Seahawks. Weather was scheduled to be an issue for both teams, but the eastern winds have blown the storm past quicker than anticipated. Shanny should have the full game plan available. Go Niners!

49ers Inactives:

QB Jimmy Garoppolo CB Ambry Thomas OL Nick Zakelj TE Ross Dwelley RB Ty Davis-Price RB Tevin Coleman DE Drake Jackson

Wild Card Weekend: 49ers vs Seahawks (Round 3)

By Scooter_McG

The rivalry continues in the first week of the playoffs as the #2 seed 49ers face the #7 seed Seahawks for the third time this season. The 49ers will be looking to extend their current 10-game unbeaten run, while the Seahawks will be hoping they can turn their form back to early season as they have struggled down the stretch and needed a Lions upset to get them into the playoffs.

The 49ers won the past two contests this season, largely on the back of the ground game. They ran for 189 yards in their week 2 win and 170 yards in their week 15 victory, and in both of those games the air and ground yards gained were pretty similar. And on defense the 49ers made the Seahawks one dimensional, allowing only 36 rushing yards in week 2 and 70 rushing yards in week 15. Turnovers were also a key factor in both of those games as the 49ers didn't turn the ball over while they had four takeaways across the two games. As razor outlined earlier in the week, the Seahawks have scored only one offensive touchdown against the 49ers this season (they did have a TD in week 2 as well, but it was on STs).  

This game is shaping up to be a wet weather contest and we could see heavy rainfall during the game. If we do see heavy rain during the game that will likely impact how the two teams play and we saw against the Bears that this can level the playing field. But given the advantage the 49ers have in the running game it feels to me like this should still favour the 49ers (or at least not be a big disadvantage for the 49ers). Even so, in consideration of the weather this is a game where getting out to an early lead could be sufficient to steal a win, so the 49ers need to make sure they don't have any blown assignments early (which has been an issue this year) and that on offense they are mistake free and efficient. 

Looking at these two teams, both in terms of personnel and in terms of form, it is one that is hard to see how the 49ers don't win so long as they play good football and don't beat themselves. In fact, I would say the same about any matchup for the 49ers in the NFC bar the Eagles, who I think are the only team in the NFC capable of matching them. But the NFL is a funny beast and upsets happen all the time. The 49ers need to be locked in to come away with the win, and make sure they don't beat themselves. The good news is that in 2019 and 2021 Shanahan showed his ability to have his team ready for the big games, so there should be little reason to believe they won't be ready for this one. 

However, there is one player that could make this all fall apart - rookie QB Brock Purdy. He's been fantastic over the past six games and the 49ers offense has never run so efficiently. He's on an historic pace at the moment having won all five of his starts and thrown for multiple TDs in each contest. But if there is one player that Sneaky Pete will see as the potential weak link for the 49ers it is Purdy, and he will no doubt have a plan devised to try and make him uncomfortable and make mistakes. It will be imperative that Shanahan has a game plan in place that allows Purdy to get into the game and gain confidence early and not put too much on his shoulders in his first playoff start. It will also be on Purdy to retain the calm and poised demeanour he has displayed so far this season.