By Scooter_McG
It's NFC Championship Game time! The two best rosters in the NFL (at least imo) will go toe to toe on Sunday for the chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
The 49ers enter their third NFCCG in four years boasting what may well be the strongest roster they've had under Kyle Shanahan. And that's saying something - the 2019 roster was stacked as well, and definitely had the stronger DL, but I think overall talent-wise this 2022 roster is better, in particular on offense.
Standing in the way is what I believe is the only team in the NFL that can make a legitimate claim of potentially having a stronger overall roster than the 49ers. This is a really talented Eagles team that has playmakers at just about every position. If both teams play close to their potential then this could be an all-time epic contest.
To get a feel for just how good this game should be, we have the #2 team in overall DVOA (49ers) against the #3 team in overall DVOA (Eagles) - incidentally these two teams are also the highest ranking teams in DVOA of the four teams remaining.
We will be getting the #3 team in the NFL in offensive DVOA, points and yards (Eagles) against the #1 defense in all three categories (49ers). That in itself should be a great watch. Key for the 49ers will be to not allow the Eagles excellent OL dictate terms up front and make sure the running game is stifled. This includes making sure Jalen Hurts is unable to find easy lanes both on designed runs and scrambles. A lot of pressure will be placed on the 49ers DEs and LBs to maintain their discipline while still being quick to react and shut the running game down while putting pressure on Hurts when he drops back to pass. The trio of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert have all had excellent seasons also, and with the pressure on containing the run this will leave the 49ers secondary in some uncomfortable positions throughout the game. The secondary will need to hold up against these receivers and get some help from the 49ers pass rush to make Hurts throw out of sync to try and force some turnovers.
The other side of the ball will be just as good. The 49ers have the 6th ranked offense in DVOA and points for, and fifth in yards, facing an Eagles defense ranked 6th in defensive DVOA, 8th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. The Eagles pass defense is the scariest in the NFL this season as they racked up 70 sacks while forcing 17 INTs and allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL. Four different players had 11 or more sacks in the regular season for one of the most prolific pass rushes in NFL history. However, interestingly, while the Eagles had considerably more sacks than the 49ers, both teams were pretty similar in overall pressure rates. The 'weakness' for the Eagles lies in their run defense which ranked 24th in yards allowed per carry. The 49ers will need to exploit the Eagles run defense both in terms of consistently picking up positive yards to stay ahead of the chains as well as forcing the Eagles to play the run aggressively so Purdy and the receivers can attack the middle of the field behind the LBs.
At the end of the day I see this game being won by two key metrics: (1) turnovers, and (2) third and longs. The team that is able to force the most will probably win.
Get your popcorn ready.
Eagles on paper is really tough and we have a rookie QB on the road but I expect us to win! Our star players and coaching stuff have more experience in this type of games. Plus playing the Cowboys in a slugfest last week is the best preparation we could ask for in playing the Eagles. Niners win 24 - 17!
ReplyDelete1. Control the line of scrimmage - my biggest concern.
ReplyDelete2. Control the middle of the field - Eagles biggest weakness.
3. Control the clock - the Eagles have problems defending the run.
Armstead gave Kelsey trouble last time they faced off, and I expect that to intensify.
ReplyDeleteAgree, Scooter. Turnovers and 3rd down efficiency.
Make sure you're wearing clean underwear in case you have a heart attack and have to go to the hospital
ReplyDeleteThe Eagles are number one defense when there is no motion by the offense and number 22 when there is.
ReplyDeleteI expect Eagles offense to come out with guns blazing. If the Niners' D can weather the storm and the Niners are, in the worst case, not trailing by more than a TD at the end of the half, then there's a good chance of pulling of a win.
ReplyDeleteLike last week, even if the Niners D line and the Eagles O line fight to a draw, Niners' LB advantage will make a difference.