By Scooter_McG
The 49ers travel to Seattle in week 13 riding the wave of an impressive three game winning streak. The Seahawks on the other hand are mired in a disastrous season currently sitting at a 3-8 record and looking out of sorts in all phases, having won only one game since they beat the 49ers in week 4 (against the lowly Jaguars).
The 49ers will be looking to exact revenge for that week 4 defeat, which was a game that exemplified the 49ers first half of the season. In that game the 49ers squandered some excellent play by the defense in the first half, through a litany of mistakes, including an INT and other errant passes, penalties, missed FGs, a fumbled kickoff return, and some very strange play calling by Shanahan including a trick play that called on the newly signed RB Patrick to take the hand off, then lob the ball way back across field to Jimmy G - a play that took so much time to develop that the intended receiver (Kittle), who initially was wide open, ended up being well covered by the time the ball got to him.
Injuries were also an issue - Robbie Gould got injured during warmups, which saw place kicking duties fall on the boot of punter Mitch Wishnowsky with the expected results, and Jimmy G was also lost at half time after injuring his calf in the first half, which pushed Trey Lance into action in the second half and he looked overwhelmed for the majority of that game.
Basically, if something could go wrong, the 49ers found a way to make it happen.
What made the loss in week 4 so disappointing was that even with the bad luck with injuries, if it wasn't for so many self inflicted wounds it was a game the 49ers could have won and won fairly easily.
Unfortunately the 49ers will go into this one a little banged up again, missing some key players in Deebo, Warner (probably) and Greenlaw. So in this second matchup, this is what I believe the keys to victory will be.
Not beating themselves. First and foremost, they can't have a repeat of the first matchup. They can't return to the mistake riddled team we saw during the first eight weeks of the season. And that extends to all facets of play - avoid turnovers, obviously, but also avoid drive killing penalties on offense and drive extending penalties on defense, and play disciplined football.
Keep running the ball. This is one where the opponent's defensive statistics suggest it may be worth focusing on changing things up and trying to take advantage of the 31st ranked passing defense in the NFL (in terms of passing yards allowed). Especially given the Seahawks rank 4th in the NFL in terms of average yards per rush allowed, at just 3.9 yards per carry. And with Deebo out for this one that will see the 49ers most explosive weapon missing. His contribution in the running game the past few weeks has been an important ingredient to their resurgence.
You could argue then that the 49ers should lean on Kittle and Aiyuk to generate some explosive plays through the air. And yes, they should - to some degree. But in my opinion it would be a mistake to make getting the ball into their hands early and often a focus of the game plan. We've seen all too often how this team can find ways to lose when they move away from a run-heavy approach. And we've seen over the past three weeks that this team doesn't need to be averaging 4+ yards per carry for the rushing attack to be vital to the team's success.
Play to your strengths, and for the 49ers that involves a steady diet of running the ball. And in Elijah Mitchell, the 49ers have the type of RB you can happily make the focus of your offense.
Don't let Wilson beat them with his legs. In the first meeting this became an issue for the defense as the game wore on. In the second half in particular, Wilson was able to pick up new sets of downs quite regularly by getting outside the edge defenders, with Ford and Armstead particularly guilty.
Wilson comes into this game playing some of the worst football of his career. The 49ers can't allow him to get back into form by letting him easily buy time and pick up yards with his legs.
Frustrate Metcalf. Something that has become apparent during the Seahawks poor run of results is that DK Metcalf can be frustrated out of the game. The 49ers should make a point of taking him away early on, and if they can steadily build a lead that frustration has a good chance of getting in Metcalf's head and potentially see him either check out or start giving silly penalties away.
49ers DL has to dominate the Seahawks OL and cover for the strained depth at LB. The OL is possibly the Seahawks biggest weakness, and to make matters worse for them they have some injury concerns up front as well (not to mention injuries at RB too). There should be no excuse for the 49ers DL not to have their way with this unit, shutting down the running game and getting pressure on Wilson. It will be doubly important this week for the DL to have a big game given the injuries at LB - this will put extra pressure on the DL to penetrate quickly and clog up lanes to keep the back 7 clean to attack the ball.
