On Tuesday, the NFL announced a schedule change, moving the 49ers-Bengals from its original 10:00 a.m. PT (1:00 p.m. ET) kickoff to 1:25 p.m. PT (4:25 p.m. ET).
This should do nothing but help the 49ers.
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Razoreater November 30, 2021 at 5:46 AM
ReplyDelete"If JG were replaced with a top NFL QB, this team, when healthy, would be capable of dominating any team in the NFL".
EPA/drop back, full 2021 season…
1. Jimmy Garoppolo: 0.233
RE: https://byjus.com/statistics-formulas/
NOTE: The important STATISTICS=FORMULAS are listed in the chart below: Mean, Median, Mode, Variance and most importantly, Standard Deviation!
* Please explain the "STANDARD DEVIATION" used to determine JG"s EPA/drop back for every play and for the season?
ALSO, from the list, which Statistics Formula(s) were used?
Estimating Team (OR QB) Ability From EPA:
Delete* Follow NFL analytics Twitter for any amount of time and you’ll see EPA/Play used to evaluate NFL teams. The example above shows how doing so in limited samples can be dangerous. EPA is noisy and quality of competition differs sharply across teams. Given these complications we need to go beyond raw EPA/Play estimates. The fundamental questions we want to answer are what we should believe about a team given the information we have and how uncertain we should be about that belief and we are going to use models to answer those questions.
https://www.opensourcefootball.com/posts/2021-06-27-estimating-team-ability-from-epa/
Geep, do you believe in the other qb's on that list?
DeleteRazor
DeleteWhat I believe is not the issue! What I know as FACTS
are! See what I posted to undercenter, to understand the fallacy of using "EPA/drop back" to measure success (by a QB or team), in the NFL
Interesting little fact is the best qb's in the league happen to be at the top of that list!
DeleteWhat I find funny is even though Jimmy G had Mack in his lap he delivered a dime on the money down. He has my respect!
DeleteAnd he's been doing it consistently!
DeleteSee my response below. HC/Play caller and quarterback have to be on the same page, and when they are you have the efficiency that we've been enjoying; with Jimmy G being at the top of that list. He's for sure doing something right. That's another fact!
DeleteRazor
Delete"HC/Play caller and quarterback have to be on the same page, and when they are you have the efficiency that we've been enjoying"
So when the 9ers were losing games, we're supposed to accept WHY, was because KS and JG were not on the "SAME PAGE?"
THANKS FOR PROVING THE POINT I MADE TO UNDERCENTER...
"The fact I can literally make stats say anything I want. I just have to choose the right stats and OMIT THE OTHERS TO GET THE RESULTS I WANT!
Shanny said it himself. He called the wrong play and it was up to Jimmy G to check it down. He didn't and threw the pick. Jimmy G then responded. Jimmy G is playing at a high level whether you want to admit it or not. 77% TD Red Zone efficiency baby!
DeleteI respect the heck out of Jimmy, but he nearly drove me crazy!
DeleteHowever, my attitude towards Jimmy and the 49ers QB situation has changed drastically over the last month.
Don't get me wrong - I certainly DON'T have any more confidence in Jimmy's ability to avoid making that critical late-game mistake, nor do I have any more confidence in his ability to go toe to toe with the best QB's in the league and match them throw for throw. The difference for me at this stage of the season is that I finally decided to just accept the fact that ... Jimmy is who he is - a flawed QB who usually plays just well enough to keep the 49ers in contention so long as Kyle is able to protect him by running the football 42+ times a game, in order to avoid getting into a shootout, while keeping his offense well ahead of the chains and staying out those obvious passing situations on money-downs.
Not to get too deep with you guys but if you have ever been cheated on, then you know your first instinct is to never allow yourself to be in that situation ever again. Only, you eventually realize that you'll never really have another fulfilling relationship again until you learn to accept that if it does happen again, life goes on, and most importantly, as Sir Alfred Tennyson famously said - "It's better to have loved and lost, than never to have loved at all."
This is my new 2021 mindset. I've decided to accept Jimmy Garoppolo for who he is - a QB who no longer extends plays, but also QB who stands tall in the face of pressure. He's a QB who can only attack a limited portion of the football field (almost nothing outsides the numbers, and very few explosive passes that travel more than 20 yards thru the air), but he's a QB with a quick release, who can get hot and string together some really impressive throws in the middle of the field. At this stage of his career he's definitely a limited NFL QB, but he's also a SCRAPPY QB who's not afraid to stand strong in the pocket, and deliver strikes in the middle of the field, even in the face of a fierce pass rush!
Most importantly, the past tells us that Jimmy is also a QB who can get his team into the postseason, just as long as he is supported by a dominant rushing attack, and an opportunistic defense that creates turnovers and provides advantageous field position. It's a crystal-clear formula, but it's a formula that works!
However, the past also tells us that it's a formula that works UNTIL IT DOESN'T. At some point, Jimmy's going to have to do more than simply manage this formula. At some point, Jimmy's going to have to attack the defense downfield, and when the clock is waning, he's going to need to make some consistent throws throws outside the numbers as well, and as I said the other day ... Jimmy G is more likely to break our hearts, than he is to break the back of opposing defenses.
And that's OK by me! I've accepted Jimmy for who he is, and I will no linger allow my idea of PERFECT to interfere with my idea of GOOD. I have tempered my expectations out of the 49ers QB position, but that doesn't mean I can't open my self up to enjoy watching these 49ers do what they do best ... imposing their will and challenging their opponents manhood by RUNNING THE FOOTBALL DOWN THEIR THEIR THROATS, and while I don't know how far that can carry the 49ers this season, I do know that I'm going to enjoy every last minute of it while it lasts!
Go Niners!
Too corny?
DeleteLet me put it another way: Jimmy Garoppolo is a flawed NFL QB ... but he's OUR QB damn it, so lets rally behind him!
You know the old saying: "if you aren't getting better, your getting worse"?
Well, that's the way I felt about running it back with Jimmy this season. I've seen that movie before, and it didn't end well, even though the defensive script was stronger in 2019, and the 49ers had home field advantage throughout the NFC postseason.
But then I came to the realization that, no matter what happens this season, the 49ers got significantly better the day day they drafted Trey Lance, and his day is coming soon enough!
The present is certainly bright, but the future is a SUPERNOVA!
Go NINERS!
Remember that movie, True Grit? That's what Jimmy G has and it's contagious.
DeleteIt is, and I love Jimmy for that.
DeleteHe frustrates me, but at the same time, I can't be mad at a guy that plays with that much GRIT and determination! John Wayne would be proud (I never saw the Jeff Bridges version ... and I'm not sure why)!
Why Lance has not been playing. From MM
ReplyDelete“It’s more about me to tell you the truth,” Shanahan said. “In terms of calling plays, We get into a rhythm of attacking a defense and what fronts they are playing and what coverages. Every play kind of plays off the next play and you get a feel, our players do and I, of what we are going to.”
Shanahan believes changing the quarterback may stunt his play-calling abilities. It may even have more of an effect on the head coach than Jimmy Garoppolo who Shanahan believes has played well in both situations.
Synergy.
Deleteundercent
DeleteWhile I may not like KS's answer, I do understand it...Opposed to the "EPA/drop back, full 2021 season."
WHY?
*Expected points and EPA explained:
Let's start with what seems like a pretty basic question: Which team has the best offense in the NFL? How about the best defense? Special teams?
Opinions on the matters can vary wildly! The objective statistical measure of these aspects of football has usually been something that relies on yards. The league's offenses are ranked by which teams averaged the most yards per game; the defenses are judged by who allowed the fewest yards per game.
As experienced football fans know, the term "yards," can be extremely deceiving. For example, if a team has impressive yardage totals but turns the ball over frequently (which we all know JG does), or fails to convert in the red zone consistently, what use are all those yards in terms of actual scoreboard points?
Not all yards are created equal. Would you rather have 8 yards on third-and 10, or 3 yards on third and 2nd?
FACT: The team with the most yards from scrimmage has won less than 70 percent of games over the past five seasons. So winning the yardage battle is not the same as winning the game in the NFL!
I REST MY CASE!
GEEP
DeleteI rarely use statistics to state a case in sports, especially in football, why? there is very little that is constant and the variables differ wildly. Weather conditions can affect lots of things that the stats cannot take into account (yet). Quality of talent on the team, quality of coaching, grass versus artificial surface, dome versus open. Those are a few of the variables that can influence stats.
By the way the key word in KS statement is 'rhythm' another intangible thing that can influence a game. It's very important. It is the sole reason why I do not like package plays for any individual QB regardless of the team. The adage if you have two QB's you have none, is something I believe in.
undercenster:
Delete"I rarely use statistics to state a case in sports, especially in football."
I COULDN'T AGREE MORE! WHY? For all the reasons both of us have posted. That and the fact I can literally make stats say anything I want. I just have to choose the right stats and omit the others to get the results I want!
BTW: That was the point I was attempting to convey to Razor, when he posted JG's EPA/drop back.
There's a reason Jimmy G is at the top of this list:
Delete1. Jimmy Garoppolo: 0.233
2. Aaron Rodgers: 0.229
3. Kyler Murray: 0.227
4. Teddy Bridgewater: 0.216
5. Matt Stafford: 0.210
6. Tom Brady: 0.204
7. Josh Allen: 0.193
8. Patrick Mahomes: 0.182
9. Kirk Cousins: 0.181
10. Justin Herbert: 0.165
Razor, don't you think Kyle has done everything in his power as an OC to simplify things for Jimmy. Not only is he giving Jimmy simple reads, he's also only asking Jimmy to attack the middle portion of the field.
DeleteI'll give you an example: When was the last time a 49ers WR made a toe-tapping catch on the sideline? Despite the fact that there are obvious advantages to attacking the boundaries, can you even remember the last time it happened?
Jimmy tried to hit Jennings at the edge of the endzone on Sunday, but Jennings couldn't come down in bounds because Jimmy's ball placement was too far outside the boundary. Jimmy also attempted a quick out on a 3rd and 4, and if you recall, the ball was almost picked off because Jimmy didn't have enough juice on the throw, which allowed the CB an opportunity break on the ball, and even though it was only batted down, the CB almost made the INT.
What you need to realize is ... yes, Jimmy has been efficient, but he's been efficient in a scheme that asks almost nothing of the QB. Every single time he throws to his primary receiver, the ball is usually within 8 yards of the LOS, and/or in the center of the field. Almost absolutely nothing outside the numbers and rarely does Jimmy ever trust himself to test opposing CB's deep.
In fact, Kyle has simplified his passing concepts so much, he's turned his best WR into a RB, for crying out loud. Jimmy can't even find his All-Pro TE more than 3 or 4 times a game, and that's despite the fact that Kittle is often in a favorable matchup VS slower LB's.
It's great that Kyle is putting Jimmy in a manageable offense, because it's certainly a successful formula, but it's an offense that only seems to be able to move the ball effectively on the ground. While the best teams in the league can beat you multiple ways, you've seen that this offense only really catches it's bearings when they are able to run the football effectively 40-45 times a game.
I'm not down on Jimmy, or trying to piss on the 49ers groove, but let's not pretend that jimmy is doing anything more than "efficiently managing" the most QB friendly offensive system in the NFC.
DeleteJimmy's thrown one meaningful int in 5 games, and I predicted it because he typically struggles against Zimmer's defense, specifically the lb's in the middle of the field where he likes to throw.
ReplyDeleteConsidering all and all I think JG is doing a fine workman like job.
DeleteJG converted two third and longs (12 and 11 yards) in the 49ers two first half TD drives. They were crucial plays.
DeleteJG isn't great, but with a strong running game he can be very effective. Much like Tannehill.
He's done it with fat linemen in his lap too. He can't move but that quick release inside a phone booth is something you can work with, and obviously win with.
DeleteI'm not down on Jimmy, or trying to piss on the 49ers groove, but let's not pretend that Jimmy is doing anything more than "efficiently managing" the most QB friendly offensive system in the entire NFC.
DeleteFunchess on IR.
ReplyDeleteLol! What did I say when they signed him, razor?
DeleteSomething about it won't be long before he goes on IR!
DeleteTHE 9ERS CAN HELP SEATTLE EXTEND THEIR MISERY THRU SUNDAY.
ReplyDeleteHow the Seahawks reached the verge of losing their Hall of Fame QB — and maybe his coach too....
For the past nine seasons, the Seattle Seahawks have been synonymous with winning.
The Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson-John Schneider triumvirate won 107 games between 2012-2020, which included nine playoff wins, two Super Bowl appearances and one championship. Those accolades are second to the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady Patriots, who won 119 games during that span, appeared in four Super Bowls and won three of them.
All that work looks to be crumbling down as the Seahawks currently sit last in the NFC West at 3-8 with no first-round pick, a broken offense and seemingly on the brink of losing Wilson. Carroll described the recent offensive stagnation as “a mystery” after the Seahawks lost to the first-place Arizona Cardinals, 23-13, a week after being shut out by the Green Bay Packers.
Troy Aikman: All-star teams like the Rams don’t work in the NFL....
ReplyDeletehttps://sports.yahoo.com/troy-aikman-star-teams-rams-163844568.html
Their biggest issue atm is Stafford is out of sorts. The past three weeks has been one of the worst three week stretches of his career. Yes, the loss of Woods has no doubt contributed to this stretch of horror games for Stafford and Woods won't be coming back to lift them.
DeleteBut I doubt Stafford will remain at such a low ebb for too much longer. He overcame having a lot less talent around him at the Lions to play some pretty good football more often than not. Once he gets going again the Rams will be dangerous.
Scooter: TO YOUR POINT!
DeleteThis article points out the Rams problems, including Stafford's
NFL Power Rankings: Rams didn't go all-in this season to be mediocre
The Rams have faced five teams that are above .500 after Week 12, and they're 1-4 in those games. The losses came by 17, 12, 21 and eight points and none of the four games was competitive. That means the Rams have built their record by going 6-0 against teams that are .500 or less. You can only hold onto the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for so long.
There are two clear culprits to the relatively disappointing season. First, the defense has regressed in a big way. The Green Bay Packers did whatever they wanted on Sunday in a 36-28 win that wasn't all that close. The Rams rank 21st in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed. They were first in both categories last season. They really seem to miss Brandon Staley, who had a great season as Rams defensive coordinator and took the head-coaching job with the Los Angeles Chargers in the offseason. They also lost safety John Johnson, outside linebacker Samson Ebukam, cornerback Troy Hill and defensive end Morgan Fox in free agency. The cost of trading away draft picks is it wears on your depth and it's harder to replace players who inevitably leave.
Then there's Matthew Stafford. Stafford hasn't been bad. But the hype surrounding the Sean McVay-Stafford
marriage was a bit out of control after the Rams bet big on him. And Stafford has been much worse against the best teams on the Rams' schedule, which was a problem for him in Detroit too. Here are his splits in wins vs. losses (and remember the Rams are getting all their wins against bad and mediocre teams and they're 1-4 against the good ones):
Wins (7): 162-for-232 (69.8 percent), 2,197 yards, 20 TD, 3 INT, 9.5 yards per attempt, 123.1 rating
Losses (4): 104-for-168 (61.9 percent), 1,119 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT, 6.7 YPA, 80.4 rating
That's a startling difference. The Rams didn't give up a fortune in picks to have Stafford play well against the Houston Texans and Lions. They thought they were getting an elite quarterback, despite Stafford making one Pro Bowl in 12 Lions seasons. Elite quarterbacks play their best against top competition. Stafford hasn't done that. Everyone blamed the malaise of the Lions for Stafford never being an MVP candidate, but maybe he played a role in that too.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-power-rankings-rams-didnt-go-all-in-this-season-to-be-mediocre-141851371.html
Scooter, one day Stafford might measure up to Jimmy G!
DeleteSeahawks: 9 takeaways from an embarrassing primetime loss to Washington
ReplyDeletehttps://sports.yahoo.com/seahawks-9-takeaways-embarrassing-primetime-042755243.html
Updates on Deebo Samuel, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Others
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/271836176/updates-on-deebo-samuel-fred-warner-dre-greenlaw-and-others