Monday, November 29, 2021

Week 12 Post Match Review: Vikings at 49ers


By Scooter_McG 

This wasn't the 49ers best performance of the season. Their best performance was two weeks ago when they beat the Rams 31-10 on Monday Night Football, just one week after an embarrassing loss to the undermanned Cardinals. 

This wasn't the 49ers most dominant performance of the season. Their most dominant performance was last week when they dismantled the Jaguars 30-10, in a game where they scored on all of their first five possessions on the way to a 27-3 lead early in the 3rd quarter and only let the Jaguars find the end zone after they pulled many of their starters. 

However, I do think this was the 49ers most impressive win of the season. And it was their most impressive precisely because they didn't play their best football of the season. Because they weren't at their most dominant for large portions of the game. Because, unlike their past two victories, they actually faced some adversity during the game. And unlike what we saw too often during the first half of the season, they overcame it. 

Shaky Start

The game got off to an inauspicious start for the 49ers with Jimmy G throwing an INT on their first possession. That 49ers opening drive on offense saw a departure from the formula that carried them to victory the previous two weeks, as Shanahan called up more pass plays than run plays as he attempted to take advantage of the Vikings aggressively defending the run. When Jimmy G is on his game he can hurt defenses that play the run too aggressively, so in a way it made sense to do so and try and loosen up the Vikings defense. The problem is that Jimmy G can be pretty hit or miss when it comes to being on his game, especially at the start of games. Against the Vikings he was definitely more miss than hit in the first quarter. 

The Vikings turned that INT and short field into 7 points and an early lead. More worryingly, they moved the ball easily on that drive. For a 49ers team that relied heavily on getting off to fast starts in their recent resurgence, and had a bad habit of slow starts through the first 8 games of the season that led to 5 defeats, it was exactly the type of start that could have had the players thinking "here we go again" (and no doubt had more than just this fan thinking it too). 

But Regathered Themselves

Rather than fold under the early pressure the 49ers were able to refocus and lead a scoring drive of their own. The 49ers first points of the game would come courtesy of a 3rd and 13 conversion from Jimmy G to Aiyuk for 37 yards to prevent a 3 and out. They would then carry that momentum with three straight big runs, finishing with a 20 yard scamper by Deebo around the right edge to the end zone. 

The teams would trade TDs again before the half, taking a 14-14 score to the break. The 49ers second TD just before the half was a return to the run dominated, play clock chewing football we've seen the past two weeks, with Elijah Mitchell shouldering the load for his team and keeping the offense ahead of the chains most of the drive. But again, Jimmy G made a crucial 3rd down conversion to Aiyuk on 3rd and long late in the drive, this time a 24 yarder that got them to the 6 yard line. The 49ers would score on the ensuing play (after an offsides penalty on the Vikings put them at the 3), with a nicely lofted pass from Jimmy G to Jennings at the right pylon.  

The scoreline at the half was reflective of the game to that point; a fairly evenly matched contest with both teams having periods of good and bad play.

Crazy 3rd Quarter

The game turned completely on its head in the 3rd quarter. It started with a run from Deebo Samuel that showcased his truly electric playmaking ability, as he used his speed and power to elude a tackler in the backfield then fired upfield like a bullet, outracing the Vikings defenders on his way to a 49 yard gain. It could probably have been more if he had allowed Brunskill to make the block on the last defender, as none of the chasing Vikings players looked like catching Deebo from behind. It didn't matter though, as Deebo finished off the drive a few plays later with a 3 yard TD run to the left edge, with a willing Elijah Mitchell providing the lead block.

The 49ers would promptly get the ball back on the Vikings first play of the half as Cousins lobbed the ball directly to Al-Shaair who returned it to the Vikings 3. One play later and the 49ers extended their lead to 28-14 on a 3 yard run by Mitchell. And just like that the 49ers were well on top and in control of the game... or so it seemed. 

The craziness of the 3rd quarter didn't end there. The Vikings pulled a TD back on their next drive, going 75 yards in just five plays. And then after a FG by the 49ers, the Vikings would return the ensuing kickoff 99 yards for another TD to bring the score back to 31-26. In total, 32 points were scored in the 3rd quarter, and could have been 34 if the Vikings had converted their TDs to 7 points.

Defense Closes the Game  

In the end the 49ers would steady the ship through their defense. First, Kevin Givens made one of the plays of the game as he knifed through the Vikings DL to hit Dalvin Cook almost as he was being handed the ball. The hit was so violent it jarred the ball loose and knocked Cook out of the game with damage to his shoulder. Al-Shaair recovered the fumble at the Vikings 9 yard line, which would lead to another FG and an 8 point lead. 

On the next drive the Vikings methodically marched down the field getting to the 49ers 6 yard line with a full set of downs. But the 49ers defense again stood up, stuffing two straight runs for minimal gain and then forcing two incompletions to get a turnover on downs. 

The 49ers should then have effectively iced the game on their next possession as they moved the ball into FG range, only for Robbie Gould to miss the 42 yard try with 2 minutes left on the clock. But the defense did the job once again, forcing another turnover on downs with some excellent coverage to close out the game. 

Dynamic Duo

The combination of Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel was too good for the Vikings defense in this one. They ran for 199 yards combined on 33 carries, and would have been over 200 yards if Deebo hadn't pulled up on his last run of the day. Mitchell once again showed he is more than capable of carrying the load for the 49ers, consistently churning out positive yards with a smattering of chunk plays on his way to 100+ yard days. This was his fourth 100+ yard game in just 8 NFL career games played. Meanwhile Deebo is quickly proving himself to be one of the most electric playmakers in the NFL today. 

Injuries a Concern

The win did unfortunately come at some cost. Deebo hurt his groin on that last run that lost 6 yards, as he pulled up almost immediately after getting the ball. Fred Warner also exited the game, as did Dre Greenlaw and Trey Sermon. We'll know more about the extent of the injuries in the coming days, but it would be a big blow to lose either Deebo or Warner for any extended amount of time. 

Big Picture

It's strange to think that three weeks ago the 49ers looked like a team that was going nowhere and had little chance of making the playoffs. The win over the Vikings now makes it three straight for the 49ers, and puts the 49ers in 6th spot in the NFC playoff race, 1 game ahead of the 7th seed, and 1 game back from the 5th seed (Rams, who lost to the Packers). 

It's easy to win when you can be the bully for 60 minutes. The test of a team's character comes when it is faced with adversity, faced with challenges. The good teams are the ones that find ways to work through that adversity and more often than not can find the path to victory. Against the Vikings, the 49ers proved they can stand up when it matters to finish a game and in my opinion that actually bodes better for their reinvigorated 2021 prospects than their two blowout wins did.  

36 comments:

  1. Good writeup Scooter, though I disagree with your overall take. This *was* domination by the Niners - 1st downs, 3rd down conversions, TOP, rushing yardage, overall yardage. The only thing preventing a 3 score blowout were 2 lapses on special teams. Would this be a different article had the final score been 37-20?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, Scooter is right that the dominant performance of the season was against the Jaguars, arguably the worst team in the league.

      I cannot call this a dominant performance since it came down to the last play for a one-score win. ST is an integral part of the team, and the ST screw-ups that resulted in a 10 points difference came out of nowhere for me. It seemed that Hightower that righted the ST ship. I had visions of the 2011 NFC Championship game, aka the Kyle Williams loss.

      It seemed to me that the tide turned with the Cook injury even though the other backs had some success running following Cook's exit.

      Delete
    2. Mood, The Big Wishnowsky whiffed. Can't wait to see him in a similar situation to see what he's made of.

      Delete
    3. Rib, the problem is they did have those gaffes. They did allow the Vikings back into the game. They did need the defense to come up with some key plays on the Vikings last three drives to close out the game, including a goal line stand.

      It wasn't a dominant win. But it was impressive.

      Delete
    4. Scooter, how does dominant for 59 minutes, 50 seconds sit with you? :)

      Delete
    5. I don't know how you can feel the team dominated when they never led until the 3rd qtr, and gave up their 2 score lead almost immediately then had to fight hard to close out the game.

      They "dominated" TOP and yards. Cool. It wasn't a dominant performance. Just like the loss to the Seahawks in their first meeting wasn't a dominant performance.

      Delete
    6. The same reason I've been saying - a 10 second lapse was a 7 point swing, a couple yards wide right another three. Added to the domination on the stat line, you don't think the potential 37-20 sounds like a "dominating" score?

      But I get what you are saying, those things did happen and they had to overcome them. Though personally, I never felt like the game was in doubt. Jimmy had that bad pick early, missed others on high throws, but I also saw him delivering strikes in clutch situations. Vikes couldn't stop the ground game, and Niners defense played it's best against one of the conferences leading offenses.

      I'm more worried about the upcoming game. By whatever voodoo Sqawks seem to have the Niners number

      Delete
  2. Yep, this win adds some character to a team who was searching for their identity a few weeks ago. I'm now a believer in this team. Even with the injuries the backups stepped up. Sherfield made a hell of a catch on a key money down.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, a great catch.

      The Jennings kid is beginning to grow on me. Like his nasty, physical attitude. He'll continue to be a cog in Shanny's offensive machine as it rolls into the second half of the season and post-season.

      Kittle had an uncharacteristically quiet game on the receiving side.

      Delete
    2. Jennings is the x alpha receiver. You can tell that immediately. Team can feed off of his energy and physicality.

      Delete
    3. I am with you guys on Jennings, I like him.

      Delete
  3. Niners still have issues.

    1. KS play calling once again reared its ugly head in the first quarter.

    2. JG is much like his HC, hot and cold.

    3. The defense still has issues. Josh Norman is a frustrating CB.

    4. Special teams were not special. They gave up a TD, they missed a field goal and their kick coverage constantly gave the Vikes good field position.

    5. Injuries still a concern.

    6. Untimely penalties once again showed up.

    All and all, any win at Levi is a bonus for the Niners as they continually struggle in their home. It was a really important win and hopefully they can make it four in a row against the Hawks up there in Seattle.

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    Replies
    1. From my vantage point, Shanny has matured this year as a head coach.

      Delete
    2. My thoughts about KS are getting about the same as Harbaugh, really good coach but will never win the big one due to self-destruction.

      I do agree he has done better as a HC but as a play caller I think he has declined.

      Delete
    3. Harbaugh just won a big game, and I think it's in part due to him getting to a point where he just loosened up a little bit. He gets his team too tight, afraid to make a mistake and they fall apart. I also don't think Harbaugh has the football knowledge that Shanny brings, especially offensively. I think Shanny is evolving, as he said he has some scars, and so we'll see how it ends but I feel pretty good right now about having a punchers chance!

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    4. eMJay - sorry didn't mean to burst your bubble but this team is a Jeckel and Hyde and still deserves to be critiqued. I am very excited the way the team is playing. I myself try to get better and to get better I got to look at what isn't so good and work on it. It was a big time win for sure.

      Delete
  4. Look out Hawks it's going to be a Three Dog Night - Eli's Coming

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  5. Scooter
    Another nice Niner game synopsis! I don't know what you do for a living, but i'm confident you could earn a good living as a sports writer.
    "This wasn't the 49ers most dominant performance of the season." "However, I do think this was the 49ers most impressive win of the season."
    THIS IS MY IMPRESSION OF THE 9ERS WEEK 12 OF THE SEASON:
    A team good enough to make the post season, but until they become a team that dominates their opponent, they can NOT make a deep post season run! IMO, two things have to change
    before this 9er team can make it to a SB.
    1) From the first play of the game, to the last play of the game, KS has to commit to the run game.
    2) JG is never going to be a QB that can carry the team. He wins games when the rest of the team dominates the opponent and the running game carries him!
    3) JG has to stop throwing an INT. An INT against the good teams in the post season, will cost the 9ers a win.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I mean with what Grant Cohn does, anyone can be a "reporter" these days.

      And Scooter is sevenfold better.

      Delete
    2. eMJay
      WELL HOW ABOUT THAT, SOMETHING WE AGREE ON!
      Scooter is sevenfold better than Grant Cone-head

      Delete
    3. Thankyou both, much appreciated.

      GEEP, I somewhat disagree regarding the team needing to dominate opponents. They should dominate weak opponents or opponents that are playing poorly. They did that against the Rams and Jags.

      But they will come up against good teams playing well. It's hard to dominate good opponents. In those games it is critical to win at the margins - win the turnover battle, field position, convert scoring opportunities, and come up with some key defensive stops when it matters.

      The 49ers weren't perfect against the Vikings, but they made a lot of plays that mattered. Need to keep doing that against good teams.

      Delete
    4. Scooter
      "I somewhat disagree regarding the team needing to dominate opponents."

      Let me put it another way and see if you agree!
      If JG were replaced with a top NFL QB, this team, when healthy, would be capable of dominating any team in the NFL. With JG under center, I AGREE. It's critical the 9ers win at the margins.
      HOPEFULLY, Lance, given the coaching and playing time,
      will be capable of dominating even the good NFL teams and lead the 9ers winning 2-3 more LOMBARDI TROPHIES!

      Delete
    5. "If JG were replaced with a top NFL QB, this team, when healthy, would be capable of dominating any team in the NFL".

      EPA/drop back, full 2021 season…

      1. Jimmy Garoppolo: 0.233
      2. Aaron Rodgers: 0.229
      3. Kyler Murray: 0.227
      4. Teddy Bridgewater: 0.216
      5. Matt Stafford: 0.210
      6. Tom Brady: 0.204
      7. Josh Allen: 0.193
      8. Patrick Mahomes: 0.182
      9. Kirk Cousins: 0.181
      10. Justin Herbert: 0.165

      #12 is Mac Jones

      Delete
    6. Razor: "JG's EPA/drop back, full 2021 season"
      FYI: https://byjus.com/statistics-formulas/
      NOTE: The important statistics formulas are listed in the chart below: Mean, Median, Mode, Variance and most importantly, Standard Deviation!
      Can you explain the "STANDARD DEVIATION" used to determine JG"s EPA/drop back for every play and for the season?
      ALSO, from the list, which Statistics Formula(s) were used?

      Delete
    7. "Let me put it another way and see if you agree!
      If JG were replaced with a top NFL QB, this team, when healthy, would be capable of dominating any team in the NFL."

      I think I heard that same rationale for the Rams signing Stafford. How's that been working out for them?

      Delete
    8. ribico
      "I think I heard that same rationale for the Rams signing Stafford."
      QUESTION: "How's that been working out for them?"
      ANSWER: NFL Power Rankings; Rams didn't go all-in this season to be mediocre....
      https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-power-rankings-rams-didnt-go-all-in-this-season-to-be-mediocre-141851371.html


      Delete
    9. Thanks Geep. You can only use the argument "he wasn't surrounded by quality players or coaching" for so long in explaining why an "elite QB" didn't get his team close to the promised land over 12 years.

      Delete
  6. Should the 9ers avoid a let down against the Seahawks next week, they're capable of winning their remaining games and be in a position to beat the Rams week 18. That would move them into the 5th playoff spot and a wild card game against the Cowgirls!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nothing personal guys, but I'm mostly here for another one of Scooter's terrific Post Game Reviews!

    I consider Scooter's work on this blog to be essential reading for any and every Faithful 49ERS Fan!


    ReplyDelete
  8. Deebo out 1 to 2 weeks, Warner missing the Hawks game.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. WR Deebo Samuel (groin)
      Out 1-2 weeks

      LB Fred Warner (hamstring)
      Out this week

      LB Harris
      Concussion protocol

      LB Dre Greenlaw (core)
      Day-to-day

      RB Trey Sermon (ankle)
      Out a while

      Delete
    2. Man...that sucks!

      Just our luck....injuries to the guy through whom the offense runs and the Defensive captain/playcaller. At least both are short-term injuries.

      Will be interesting to see how Shanahan alters the game plan & how much he leans on Mitchell/Kittle vs seahawks

      Delete
    3. Mugeek9er
      I expect to see Aiyuk, Jennings, Kittle and Juice get more calls. Mitchell should see 30-35 touches and Kittle has to get more than one catch he had against the Vikings.
      I believe Al-Shaair replaced Warner and IMO will against the Seahawks, with Greenlaw at SAM.

      NOTE: SEATTLE DEFENSE RANKS:

      Team EPA/Play Rank EPA/Run Rank EPA/Pass Rank
      Seattle 0.018 24th -0.147 14th 0.124 27th

      The Seahawks, featuring Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, has fallen short this season, ranking 30th in the league in total yards and 24th in scoring offense.

      Delete
  9. Nice to see the Seahawks lose! :)

    We are the only team which won this week in the NFC West!

    ReplyDelete

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