Week 12 Matchups to Watch: Vikings at 49ers

By Scooter_McG

You like drama? Then it doesn't get much better than this week's matchup of the 49ers vs the Vikings - not at this juncture of the season. We're now almost two thirds of the way through the season and the race for playoff spots is really starting to heat up. And this game will not only pit two 5-5 NFC teams against each other, it pits the teams currently sitting in the final two wild card spots for the NFC playoffs after the Saints loss on Thanksgiving. 

The Vikings are a team that has played a lot of close games this season and could easily be better than their 5-5 record, but much like the 49ers have found ways to lose. In fact, despite both teams sitting at .500 after 10 games, both teams sit in the top third of the NFL in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, with the Vikings sitting at 11th while the 49ers sit at 7th. This is an indicator that these teams have, for the most part, played better than their records.   

It's an overused phrase in sports, but this is quite genuinely the biggest game of the 49ers season so far. Sure, the past two games were also critical to turn the 49ers season around and get them firmly back into the playoff picture. And sure, from here on out every game the 49ers play will be pretty important so long as they remain in the race for the playoffs. But this game in particular is a crucial one for the 49ers to win as the Vikings will be one of their key challengers for a wild card spot. 

And it couldn't come at a better time for the 49ers either. They're now riding the back of two straight dominant performances. They are now starting to get guys back from injury instead of losing them to injury. And their opponents have lost some key peices along their DL due to injury, COVID and mental health, including their best two pass rushers in Hunter and Griffen. 

Here's what I'll be watching in this one.

Can the 49ers continue running the ball effectively? It is no secret that a renewed focus on running the ball has been key to the 49ers success the past two weeks. They have run the ball more than 40 times in both wins, with a run to pass ratio of more than 2 to 1. And it hasn't just been because they were ahead - the run to pass ratio has been heavily skewed to the run from the outset in both contests.

This week they come up against a Vikings team that if it has one weakness, it has been stopping the run. They rank 31st in the NFL in terms of rushing yards per attempt allowed, and 28th in terms of total rushing yards allowed. And with three key DL missing from this contest, one of which is DT Dalvin Tomlinson who is primarily a run stuffing DT, the task doesn't get any easier for the Vikings this week. 

On paper the 49ers should have a clear advantage running the ball. It wouldn't surprise then to see the Vikings consistently stack the line of scrimmage to try and stop the run and force the 49ers and Jimmy G to beat them through the air. If the 49ers are still able to consistently churn out yards on the ground and stay ahead on down and distance then the 49ers will be hard to beat on Sunday. 

Can Jimmy G take advantage of the Vikings defending the run? An underrated aspect of the past two victories has been the efficiency with which Jimmy G has thrown the ball. He hasn't been required to throw the ball often, but when he has thrown it he has done a very good job converting on key downs and keeping drives going, as well as converting drives into points. 

While it will be important that Jimmy G and the offense continues to play efficient football, if the Vikings stack the line of scrimmage it will also be important that Shanahan and Jimmy G are able to take advantage of that aggressiveness to hit them with some explosive plays through the air. The team can not continually rely on successfully churning out long drives - at some point mistakes will creep into the 49ers game and those drives will stall. Over the past two weeks those explosive pass plays have been few and far between, with the longest being a 34 yard catch and run to Aiyuk last week. 

Given the strength of the Vikings offense, hitting a few big plays in the passing game will likely be vital to winning this one as it could become something of a shootout.  

Can the 49ers make the Vikings one dimensional on offense? The Vikings offense has moved the ball effectively all season, currently ranked 7th in the NFL in total yards, including 8th in passing yards and 11th in rushing yards. That balance on offense has been an important element to their offensive success this season. 

The Vikings rushing attack is led by Dalvin Cook, one of the best the RBs in the NFL. Stopping Cook will be no easy feat as he is averaging over 90 rushing yards per game this season.  But the 49ers have had success containing Cook in the past, and doing so again this weekend will go a long way to keying some defensive stops, which will be crucial to victory. 

Can the 49ers force some turnovers in the passing game? The Vikings have two excellent WRs in Thielen and Jefferson, and Kirk Cousins has been playing some of the best football of his career. On the season Cousins has only thrown 2 INTs in 10 games while leading one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, throwing 21 TDs and completing over 68% of his passes. 

While Cousins is playing some excellent and mostly error free football, throughout his career he has shown he can be susceptible to pressure (both pass rush pressure and big game/ moment pressure). He has also historically been something of a stat padder, looking great between the 20s and putting up yards while coming from behind. 

Cousins also made some interesting comments after the Vikings win against the Packers last week, outlining how he wasn't comfortable with some of the game defining throws he made over the past two games (which coincided with two of the best outings of his career), calling his play over aggressive. He does have something of a point, given the win over the Packers was largely due to some great catches by his playmakers, but also a dropped INT on the game winning drive that really should have been made. 

It makes one believe the current tear Cousins is on is unsustainable - there has been a large element of luck to the low number of INTs he has given the number of times he has been putting the ball in danger in recent weeks, and it relys heavily on his playmakers continually winning their matchups in those situations. It also goes against his very nature to be making those throws. 

There is a good chance Cousins will give the defense some opportunities to take the ball away in this game, given both the way he has been playing in recent weeks and his propensity in the past to struggle in important games. And if the run defense can take Dalvin Cook away, while the offense puts scoreboard pressure on the Vikings, the chances of Cousins being forced into mistakes increases considerably.

General/Open Discussion Friday

 Jimmy Ward is 47 for 48 in tackling. He missed one tackle against Swift and the Detroit Lions. Just think if you had 11 guys on defense that could tackle like that. That's my number one quality when evaluating defensive starters.

Changing Of The Guard

The 2019 49ers were a defensively led team. This years team is the direct opposite. The offense has to be the dominant force that fuels them to where they want to go. The blueprint has been laid. Be elite offensively and let the defense feed off of that, while playing complimentary special teams. That should allow them to move up from a top ten team right now to a top 5. That means consistent, mistake free football from here on out, and continuing to take it away defensively. The only speed bump they must overcome is RT. Shanny Inc. can only do so much to scheme it away. Sooner or later it's going to come back and bite them. How much longer before Banks is ready to make a deposit at RG so they can move Brunskill to his natural position?

Innovative Red Zone Formation

 This is incredible! They got the wide receiver at running back, the tight end at full back, the full back at wide receiver, a wide receiver in a three point stance, and the running back at wide receiver. If the highest graded quarterback at 85.7 since week 8 throws a catchable ball to a wide open Wilson, it would have worked!

Unsung hero of the week,

Jauan Jennings. Kept his composure after getting slapped in the face by an incomposed Jaguar to earn the team a 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty after failing to convert on 3rd down. Recovered a fumble by Wilson when surrounded by 3 Jaguars. Made some key blocks on a couple scoring drives. This dude seems like an alpha dog bringing more bite than bark to the offense.

Pleasant surprise is Arden Key who has 3 sacks and 6 quarterback hits in just 219 snaps.

I think this weeks matchup versus the Vikings comes down to one thing. Eliminate the Vikings dependence on explosive plays downfield, and the 49ers win the football game. I hope Ryans continues to move Bosa around as well. 

Week 11 Post Match Review: 49ers at Jaguars

 

By Scooter_McG

This game had the potential to be a trap game for the 49ers. If they'd played it two weeks ago it probably would have been. But say this about the embarrassment against the Cardinals - it was the humbling loss the 49ers clearly needed to learn that their attitude was not good enough to be serious competitors in the NFL. Hopefully it didn't come so late in the season, and after too many defeats, to make the playoffs in what is becoming a crowded fight for spots. 

Instead this game was a dominant display from a 49ers team that has rediscovered the tough minded mentality that saw them surprise the NFL in 2019. Over the past two weeks the 49ers have said goodbye to the silly little errors that had plagued them through the first 8 games of the year. For the second straight week they committed no turnovers, had no clear drops, and comprehensively won the penalties. For the second straight week it was the opposition making those mistakes. And for the second straight week it was precipitated by a hard-nosed, run first offensive philosophy that was happy to grind their way down the field mixing in some dynamic runs from their number one playmaker Deebo Samuel. 

As was the case in the game against the Rams, the 49ers first offensive drive was a statement of the physicality the team intended to play with, and showcased their focused and grinding mentality. The drive lasted more than 13 game minutes and 20 plays. It was littered with small gaining run plays as the Jaguars set their stall on stopping the run. While on paper those runs won't look like much, they were just as important as the handful of explosive runs by Deebo and the efficient passing of Jimmy G as they kept the offense inching forward to set up 3rd and short and took energy out of the defense. A nice conversion on 3rd and 12 to Aiyuk was also a key play early in the drive, as were some critical penalties against the Jaguars to extend the drive when it should have been stalled.

While they would eventually need to settle for a FG (after Jimmy G missed a wide open Wilson for what should have been an easy TD), the opening drive was critical to sapping the energy and confidence of the Jaguars defense. 

The defense also did its part. They started with a great play by Ebukam to drop the RB behind the line of scrimmage, and broke up the deep ball on third down without giving away the dreaded DPI. On the second defensive series Josh Norman forced the fumble on the first play which Warner recovered. 

After the opening drive, forcing the three and out put a tired Jaguars defense back on the field quickly. The 49ers took advantage with a rapid fire, 7 play scoring drive that started with a nice catch and run for Aiyuk for around 20 yards, followed by a series of big runs, including a long TD run by Deebo. 

After the fumble recovery the 49ers went on a second straight 7 play scoring drive, this time benefitting from some more ill discipline from the Jaguars on what should have been a stop on third down, but instead saw their starting safety Rayshawn Jenkins ejected for throwing a punch at Jauan Jennings. The drive would end with a nice short pass to Aiyuk for the TD. 

Those first five drives (3 offensive, two defensive) put the 49ers well in control of the game right from the get go, up 17-0. They would allow the Jaguars to get a FG late in the half, as well as a FG of their own, to end the half leading 20-3. 

It was a half of complete and utter dominance by the 49ers, where they won in every facet of the game. The type of half you expect to see from a playoff calibre team against a 2-7 unit with a rookie QB. And the type of half you expect from a team playing with a high level of confidence and commitment. 

The start of the second half would see more of the same, with a defensive stop and then another TD drive on offense that was highlighted by three big plays by Deebo - a 15 yard catch and 2 big runs - finished by a red zone TD for Kittle that makes it 3 in 3 weeks. 

It wasn't until the 49ers brought their backups in that the Jaguars were able to score a TD late in the 4th quarter, on a series that was predicated on picking on the rookie Ambry Thomas. The dominant win in fact enabled the 49ers to get most of their rookies some game time once they were up 30-3 - the first time this season the team has been able to rest its starters while in front. 

Other Notables

Nick Bosa was able to rack up two sacks in this one, taking his tally into double digits on the season for the first time in his career. Aiyuk also had a very nice game as he continues to see his usage increase, catching all 7 of his targets for 85 yards and a TD. 

Deebo Samuel only caught one pass this week, for 15 yards, with only two targets. But his impact on the game was still significant as he led the team with 79 rushing yards on 8 carries and TD. The transition to using him more as a RB over the past two games has highlighted just how important it is to find ways to get the ball in the hands of your best playmakers.

This win marked the second straight week the 49ers ran the ball more then 40 times, and finished with a run to pass ratio of around 2:1. There can be no mistake now that Shanahan has realised the template for success involves sticking with the run even when the defense tries to take it away. The same template that saw the 49ers go on their 2019 Super Bowl run. 

Looking Forward

With the Panthers and Saints losing, and 49ers, Vikings and Eagles winning, the race for the 6th and 7th NFC wildcard spots got a whole lot more interesting this weekend. The 49ers host the Vikings next week in what should be a much tougher contest than the Jaguars and looks to be critical in deciding the playoff picture. 

Sunday Morning Gameday Live

 

49ers Inactives:

Hasty

Mitchell

Hurst

McKivitz

Week 11 Matchups to Watch: 49ers at Jaguars

By Scooter_McG

The rollercoaster ride that is the 49ers 2021 season continues in week 11, pitting the now 4-5 49ers against a 2-7 Jaguars team in Jacksonville. This is a game the 49ers should win, and need to win to build momentum and stay firmly in the hunt for a playoff spot. However, if this season has taught us anything it is to expect the unexpected when it comes to the 49ers, and don't take any game for granted.

The Jaguars are also a team that deserves to not be overlooked. Despite their 2-7 record they are 2-2 over their past four games, including a surprise win over the Bills and a narrow defeat to the Colts last week. Meanwhile the 49ers have also gone 2-2 over the same period, mixing some very poor performances against the Colts and Cardinals with some good wins against the Bears and then the Rams last week. Basically, the 49ers should have no reason to feel they can relax and still expect to win this week. 

So how will the game go? Here is what I will be watching.

49ers mentality. Last week against the Rams the 49ers came out with a locked in, take no prisoners mindset from the get go that was in stark contrast to anything we saw through the first 8 games of the season. They had a game plan to match that was based on running the ball down the Rams throat and physically bullying their opponent at every opportunity. 

The quesiton now becomes - can they maintain that mentality? Can they repeat it? That doesn't mean they need to continue with their more than 2:1 run vs pass ratio every week, but can they bring that same physicality, will to physically and mentally dominate their opponent, and commitment to execution? 

With how things stand in the NFC it is possible this team has a chance to make the playoffs even without bringing the same or similar type of attitude as last week here on out. But if they are to have any chance of making some noise in the playoffs the team needs to make last weeks performance the standard. 

Trevor Lawrence vs 49ers coverage. This week the 49ers face a rookie QB that, while talented, has had his struggles through his first 9 NFL games. This will be the second time the 49ers face a rookie QB that has been struggling acclimating to the NFL. Justin Fields entered the game against the 49ers looking like a player whose head was spinning in previous weeks. He then proceeded to look very comfortable against the 49ers, and has since started to play pretty well. The 49ers do not want to be known as the team that lets rookie QBs gain their confidence.  

One of the key triggers for last weeks win was getting two turnovers on the first two Rams drives, which were converted to 14 points including a pick-6. But for the majority of the year the team has struggled to take the ball away, and not always for lack of opportunities. The 49ers should go into this game with an aim to not let Lawrence get comfortable. Chances are he will provide some opportunities for the 49ers defense and the 49ers have to make sure they take them when presented, to get Lawrence uncomfortable and second guessing himself.  

49ers run defense vs Jaguars rushing attack. With a rookie QB leading their team the Jaguars have relied on the rushing attack on offense, and stopping the run has at times been something of an achilles heel for the 49ers. Part of making Lawrence uncomfortable will be making the Jaguars need to rely on his arm more than they want to. There are two components to that - put scoreboard pressure on the Jaguars, and take their running game away. 

James Robinson leads the Jaguars in rushing yards and is averaging over 5 yards per carry. This won't be an easy rushing attack to stop. Can the 49ers front 7 find a way to get it done?

49ers running game vs Jaguars run defense. As outlined above, the 49ers win over the Rams saw the team run the ball more than double the number of times they threw the ball. While they didn't necessarily generate a lot of big plays out of this, and the yards per rush was nothing special, it consistently put the team ahead of schedule and gradually sapped the energy and will of the Rams defense. 

Running the ball will likely be a lot tougher this week against the Jaguars, for a variety of reasons. The Jaguars will be expecting it, they have one of the top ranked run defenses in the NFL, and the 49ers will likely be without their leading rusher Elijah Mitchell due to a broken finger suffered last week. 

Despite this, I expect to see the 49ers continue to commit to running the ball this week. Not to the extent we saw against the Rams, but a big part of the game plan nonetheless as the 49ers look to build on their performance and lean on their strengths. 

I also expect we will see some more wrinkles in the running game this week. And don't be surprised to see Trey Lance finally see some snaps again, to take advantage of the running threat he provides.  

Deebo Samuel - offensive weapon. Deebo Samuel has shown this year that he is a legitimately good WR, not just a gadget player ala Percy Harvin. However, as dangerous as he has proven to be as a downfield threat, Samuel is even more dangerous when the team uses him in a variety of ways like they did against the Rams. 

The success the 49ers had with the package that put Deebo at RB and Wilson at FB should see that become an ongoing part of their offense until teams prove they can stop it. And don't be surprised to see the team start to incorporate passes out of that package, as well as mix things up by having Deebo line up at RB to start with then motion out.  

Getting the ball in the hands of your best playmaker is always a good plan, especially when you need wins. The variety of ways the 49ers look to do that this week will be fun to watch.