Week 12 Matchups to Watch: Vikings at 49ers

By Scooter_McG

You like drama? Then it doesn't get much better than this week's matchup of the 49ers vs the Vikings - not at this juncture of the season. We're now almost two thirds of the way through the season and the race for playoff spots is really starting to heat up. And this game will not only pit two 5-5 NFC teams against each other, it pits the teams currently sitting in the final two wild card spots for the NFC playoffs after the Saints loss on Thanksgiving. 

The Vikings are a team that has played a lot of close games this season and could easily be better than their 5-5 record, but much like the 49ers have found ways to lose. In fact, despite both teams sitting at .500 after 10 games, both teams sit in the top third of the NFL in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, with the Vikings sitting at 11th while the 49ers sit at 7th. This is an indicator that these teams have, for the most part, played better than their records.   

It's an overused phrase in sports, but this is quite genuinely the biggest game of the 49ers season so far. Sure, the past two games were also critical to turn the 49ers season around and get them firmly back into the playoff picture. And sure, from here on out every game the 49ers play will be pretty important so long as they remain in the race for the playoffs. But this game in particular is a crucial one for the 49ers to win as the Vikings will be one of their key challengers for a wild card spot. 

And it couldn't come at a better time for the 49ers either. They're now riding the back of two straight dominant performances. They are now starting to get guys back from injury instead of losing them to injury. And their opponents have lost some key peices along their DL due to injury, COVID and mental health, including their best two pass rushers in Hunter and Griffen. 

Here's what I'll be watching in this one.

Can the 49ers continue running the ball effectively? It is no secret that a renewed focus on running the ball has been key to the 49ers success the past two weeks. They have run the ball more than 40 times in both wins, with a run to pass ratio of more than 2 to 1. And it hasn't just been because they were ahead - the run to pass ratio has been heavily skewed to the run from the outset in both contests.

This week they come up against a Vikings team that if it has one weakness, it has been stopping the run. They rank 31st in the NFL in terms of rushing yards per attempt allowed, and 28th in terms of total rushing yards allowed. And with three key DL missing from this contest, one of which is DT Dalvin Tomlinson who is primarily a run stuffing DT, the task doesn't get any easier for the Vikings this week. 

On paper the 49ers should have a clear advantage running the ball. It wouldn't surprise then to see the Vikings consistently stack the line of scrimmage to try and stop the run and force the 49ers and Jimmy G to beat them through the air. If the 49ers are still able to consistently churn out yards on the ground and stay ahead on down and distance then the 49ers will be hard to beat on Sunday. 

Can Jimmy G take advantage of the Vikings defending the run? An underrated aspect of the past two victories has been the efficiency with which Jimmy G has thrown the ball. He hasn't been required to throw the ball often, but when he has thrown it he has done a very good job converting on key downs and keeping drives going, as well as converting drives into points. 

While it will be important that Jimmy G and the offense continues to play efficient football, if the Vikings stack the line of scrimmage it will also be important that Shanahan and Jimmy G are able to take advantage of that aggressiveness to hit them with some explosive plays through the air. The team can not continually rely on successfully churning out long drives - at some point mistakes will creep into the 49ers game and those drives will stall. Over the past two weeks those explosive pass plays have been few and far between, with the longest being a 34 yard catch and run to Aiyuk last week. 

Given the strength of the Vikings offense, hitting a few big plays in the passing game will likely be vital to winning this one as it could become something of a shootout.  

Can the 49ers make the Vikings one dimensional on offense? The Vikings offense has moved the ball effectively all season, currently ranked 7th in the NFL in total yards, including 8th in passing yards and 11th in rushing yards. That balance on offense has been an important element to their offensive success this season. 

The Vikings rushing attack is led by Dalvin Cook, one of the best the RBs in the NFL. Stopping Cook will be no easy feat as he is averaging over 90 rushing yards per game this season.  But the 49ers have had success containing Cook in the past, and doing so again this weekend will go a long way to keying some defensive stops, which will be crucial to victory. 

Can the 49ers force some turnovers in the passing game? The Vikings have two excellent WRs in Thielen and Jefferson, and Kirk Cousins has been playing some of the best football of his career. On the season Cousins has only thrown 2 INTs in 10 games while leading one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, throwing 21 TDs and completing over 68% of his passes. 

While Cousins is playing some excellent and mostly error free football, throughout his career he has shown he can be susceptible to pressure (both pass rush pressure and big game/ moment pressure). He has also historically been something of a stat padder, looking great between the 20s and putting up yards while coming from behind. 

Cousins also made some interesting comments after the Vikings win against the Packers last week, outlining how he wasn't comfortable with some of the game defining throws he made over the past two games (which coincided with two of the best outings of his career), calling his play over aggressive. He does have something of a point, given the win over the Packers was largely due to some great catches by his playmakers, but also a dropped INT on the game winning drive that really should have been made. 

It makes one believe the current tear Cousins is on is unsustainable - there has been a large element of luck to the low number of INTs he has given the number of times he has been putting the ball in danger in recent weeks, and it relys heavily on his playmakers continually winning their matchups in those situations. It also goes against his very nature to be making those throws. 

There is a good chance Cousins will give the defense some opportunities to take the ball away in this game, given both the way he has been playing in recent weeks and his propensity in the past to struggle in important games. And if the run defense can take Dalvin Cook away, while the offense puts scoreboard pressure on the Vikings, the chances of Cousins being forced into mistakes increases considerably.