Another One Bites The Dust

 

Nick Sorensen will not return as 49ers defensive coordinator, per

@MaioccoNBCS

Season Finale Week 17: 49ers vs Cardinals

 

The realization that this is the last 49ers game until September hits home, and all we're left with is bitter regret. Once we get through the draft that regret will slowly fade away to make way for hope and optimism for the 2025 season. Until then lets cheer on our team for the final time this year and pray for no more significant injuries. If the Niners win today they'll likely drop to #14 from #11 which could be significant given there's only 10 first round graded players. I'm sure everyone wants to win this game but this is a situation when winning in the short term is actually losing in the long term. Play hard, play competitively but stick to the elegant tank playbook. Go Niners?

49ers inactives: QB Brock Purdy WR Deebo Samuel CB Deommodore Lenoir DE Robert Beal Jr. RB Israel Abanikanda DT Khalil Davis CB Tre Avery

Paying Purdy

 

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers will have a number of areas to address this offseason, but none more pressing or important than sorting out what to do with Brock Purdy. While Purdy has played at an exceptionally high level to start his career – by almost any metric his stats over the first three years of his career are as good and better than anyone not named Mahomes – there is no denying the level of his play faltered in 2024 as the supporting cast was not as strong around him. The idea of paying him at or above current top of the QB market no longer seems reasonable in the eyes of most parties, despite many predicting that would be the case heading into the 2024 season.

I have been playing around with some potential extension contract amounts and structures to see to help my own understanding of the potential ramifications on the 49ers salary cap. And what surprised me during this exercise was that it’s possible to hand out a pretty big contract without completely ruining the 49ers cap situation.

I asked in the previous post what people would be willing to pay Purdy as a share of the 49ers cap, and Razor was kind enough to reply with 12%. This was along the lines of what I was thinking as well, at 12.5%. Doing a little bit of research, this seems to be in the ball park of what Super Bowl winning QBs not on rookie contracts have comprised of the cap in the past.

To understand what this means in terms of dollars it is necessary to project the salary cap forward over the likely life of Purdy’s deal. Current projections to 2027 (https://overthecap.com/nfl-and-nflpa-look-forward-to-the-future-salary-cap#google_vignette) indicate around $272.2M in 2025, $298.2M in 2026 and $328.2M in 2027. I have assumed the cap then continues to increase by $30M per annum thereafter.

For the purposes of this exercise I am assuming the team decides to give Brock a five year extension (i.e., he would be under contract for the next six seasons, adding five years to his remaining one year on his rookie deal). The money he is given would also be additional to the existing $1.1M he is already scheduled to make for 2025 on his rookie deal, while also having $19,200 in pro-rated signing bonus due next against the 2025 cap that will also remain.  

Over the next six years, based on my cap projections this would sum to $2,063.2M in total cap per team – 12% of this would equate to around $247.5M while 12.5% would be around $258M. This sets a ballpark for what our extension amount should be if we want to achieve 12% to 12.5% of the salary cap. However, it is also important to remember we can use void years to pro-rate option bonuses to push some cap hits into future years beyond the six years of the deal, and thereby add additional money to the deal while still aiming to hit our goal of 12% to 12.5%. For this exercise I have decided to look at a 5-year extension paying Purdy an additional $280M (i.e., under contract for 6 years to 2030, paying $281.1M over those 6 years). I’m also going to add two void years at the end of the deal.

For the new money, I’ve decided to go with the following bonus structure, while paying $100M in new salary over the life of the deal.

Below is a summary of the yearly cash, cap hits and percent of total salary cap by year based on this structure.

Of note, I have decided in this example to keep his cap hit below 12% for the first four years, then letting it increase to just under 15% in years 5 and 6. By year 5 the team will know whether they want to keep committing to Purdy and would likely restructure/ extend his deal or let him go at this point.

This is just one potential structure and there are many ways they could go about this. The main thing this highlighted to me was that it’s possible to give Purdy a big deal (above the likes of Tua, Love and Lawrence) while still keeping it at a level that shouldn’t preclude the team from maintaining a strong roster around him.

The only caveat with the above though is that you have to commit to Purdy for at least another 3 years, and likely 4 – anything less and the dead cap hit will likely be too onerous to get out from. 

Monday Night Football Week 16: Lions vs 49ers

Not the showdown we anticipated back in September but an interesting matchup just the same. A patchwork quilt of an offensive line hand knitted throughout the week from remnants of F/A and practice squads. The conventional wisdom in a meaningless game such as this would be to protect your franchise quarterback by sitting him and seeing what you might have in Tanner Mordecai. Shanahan begs to differ and I can't say that I blame him. If Purdy can somehow survive while looking for ways to win, it should pay the kind of dividends that are priceless for a young quarterback going into his 3rd season as the starter. The 49ers are 11-1 in their last 12 games against the Lions and 3-0 under Kyle Shanahan.

49ers inactives: QB Brandon Allen (third QB) RB Israel Abanikanda DL Khalil Davis LB Dre Greenlaw OL Spencer Burford DE Robert Beal Jr. CB Charvarius Ward OT Colton McKivitz, who had been questionable with a knee injury, is active

Gameday Week 15: 49ers vs Dolphins

 

The postseason is a year away. Win or lose the only thing they're playing for today is pride. Another opportunity to advertise your worth for the rest of the NFL to see. Miami isn't sunk but their ship is taking on water and a loss today will certainly sink their last chance at a wild card spot. The Dolphins are averaging just over 33 points in their last 3 wins while only 14.5 in their last two losses. They struggle to win low scoring games and will need their offense to come out guns blazing. Tua does lead the NFL in completion percentage but he threw 3 Int's in last Sundays defeat to the Texans (RIP Tank Dell), while also suffering a hip injury. San Francisco has elevated Graham, Barrett, Vaughn and recently signed OG Austen Pleansants. If it were up to me I wouldn't play Greenlaw or Bosa who are both players that you don't need to see but I understand the mechanics behind why they'll probably both play. The 49ers are the more physical team and will probably win the game, but in the greater scheme of things the debate comes down to whether or not they should win the game. Afterall, it's all about draft position and strength of schedule looking ahead to next years hope of another Super Bowl appearance where San Francisco is the host stadium. Go Niners?  

49ers Inactives: QB Josh Dobbs (3rd QB) OT Trent Williams (ankle) RB Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) DE Robert Beal Jr. (ankle) CB Rock Ya-Sin TE Jake Tonges DT Khalil Davis

2025 NFL Draft Edition: Safety

2025 NFL Draft Safety Rankings:

Starks ———— Winston Jr. Nwankpa ———— Watts ———- Barron Rod ——— Keon Sabb Lathan Ransom Billy Bowman Jr. Jonas Sanker Malachi Moore (Has played 10 years of CFB)

Ji'Ayir Brown was millstone around Sorenson's neck this year, along with a linebacker who shall not be named. Signing Hufanga and drafting another safety could be the answer.

Game Night Week 14: Rams vs 49ers

 

The 49ers passing offense ranks 9th in the NFL and excels on longer throws beyond 10 air yards. In contrast, the Rams' pass defense ranks among the bottom 3 league-wide and is particularly vulnerable to deep passes. A quick look at the two charts highlights this disparity: the 49ers shine (green) where the Rams struggle (red).

Desperation gives some the ability to go all out and put all their effort towards a goal without reservation. Tonight we have two desperate teams with their hope for a ticket to the post season in the balance. The Rams come into this game healthy for the most part while the 49ers are beat up, and missing key contributors. One missing contributor is set to make his return in Dre Greenlaw, and I can't stress enough how big an emotional lift this could turn out to be. The Rams offense goes through Nacua now and not Cooper Kupp. Stopping him should be priortiy one and I expect Ward to cover him almost exclusively whenever possible. Lenoir will likely stay with Kupp. Green will be in the mix too and I like the way our Secondary matches up with the Rams receivers, even without Mustapha. I suspect Brown will be on a short leash with Gipson in the wings. The Rams have a nice RB that they'll need to contain in Kyren Williams. He's 2nd in rushing TD's against a Niners defense ranking 27th in TD's given up to rb's. 

Defensively the Rams aren't very good, ranking 29th in estimated points added and 29th against the pass. On a short week after giving up 42 points to the Bills, expect Brock Purdy to better his last outing against them, (292 yards/3 TD's) and yes I know rain is in the forecast. JJ has been the 49ers best WR and I suspect he'll have another big game. Deebo Samuel is anxious to show he's still a thorn in the Rams belly having missed the first game earlier this year. I'm expecting the 49ers to win this game by 10 or more points, 28-17. Go Niners!

Inactives: QB Josh Dobbs T Trent Williams (heel/ankle) S Malik Mustapha (chest/shoulder) RB Israel Abanikanda CB Rock Ya-Sin DT Khalil Davis