The 49ers passing offense ranks 9th in the NFL and excels on longer throws beyond 10 air yards. In contrast, the Rams' pass defense ranks among the bottom 3 league-wide and is particularly vulnerable to deep passes. A quick look at the two charts highlights this disparity: the 49ers shine (green) where the Rams struggle (red).
Desperation gives some the ability to go all out and put all their effort towards a goal without reservation. Tonight we have two desperate teams with their hope for a ticket to the post season in the balance. The Rams come into this game healthy for the most part while the 49ers are beat up, and missing key contributors. One missing contributor is set to make his return in Dre Greenlaw, and I can't stress enough how big an emotional lift this could turn out to be. The Rams offense goes through Nacua now and not Cooper Kupp. Stopping him should be priortiy one and I expect Ward to cover him almost exclusively whenever possible. Lenoir will likely stay with Kupp. Green will be in the mix too and I like the way our Secondary matches up with the Rams receivers, even without Mustapha. I suspect Brown will be on a short leash with Gipson in the wings. The Rams have a nice RB that they'll need to contain in Kyren Williams. He's 2nd in rushing TD's against a Niners defense ranking 27th in TD's given up to rb's.
Defensively the Rams aren't very good, ranking 29th in estimated points added and 29th against the pass. On a short week after giving up 42 points to the Bills, expect Brock Purdy to better his last outing against them, (292 yards/3 TD's) and yes I know rain is in the forecast. JJ has been the 49ers best WR and I suspect he'll have another big game. Deebo Samuel is anxious to show he's still a thorn in the Rams belly having missed the first game earlier this year. I'm expecting the 49ers to win this game by 10 or more points, 28-17. Go Niners!
Inactives: QB Josh Dobbs T Trent Williams (heel/ankle) S Malik Mustapha (chest/shoulder) RB Israel Abanikanda CB Rock Ya-Sin DT Khalil Davis
* At game time, does 80% chance of rain at Levi = BP kryptonite?
ReplyDeleteA chance for him to prove his critics wrong!
I'm starting to treat Purdy’s wet hands issue like California earthquakes. You know they're coming, you just hope it's not a damaging one.
ReplyDelete
DeleteAES
A Purdy shaky excuse! lol
Staffords hands will be wet as well.
DeleteArmand Membou, RT, Missouri is a player I'd be interested in hearing Foerster's opinion on.
ReplyDeleteAdam Schefter
ReplyDelete@AdamSchefter
·
6m
49ers DE Nick Bosa, listed as questionable for tonight, is likely to play vs. the Rams, but the team will test him pregame to make sure.
Razor
DeleteGross-Matos racked up 3 of the Niners 7 sacks against the Bears. Tonight he may get a chance to audition for more
playing time (sacks), as well as a new contract next season.
I believe the two keys to tonight's game are BP and the pass rush. Stafford will pick them apart if they don't pressure/sack him. I sure hope Bosa plays and can be effective.
ReplyDeleteStafford should throw a couple picks too if history is any indicator.
ReplyDeleteOldCoach
ReplyDeleteNot to disagree with you, as I agree pressuring Stafford will be a key to the 9ers winning.
But just as important, IMO, will be the 9ers ability to stop Rams RB Williams. Greenlaw will help, but his snaps will be limited, so I my
question is, will Dee Winters play or D. Campbell?
* Campbell’s play has trended in the wrong direction in recently and led to Winters taking over in the 2nd half last week against the Bears.
Stop the Rams running game and the Niners need to pound the rock.
ReplyDeleteGood luck getting Greenlaw off the field!
ReplyDeleteHopefully the Rams have become somewhat soft from playing in their luxurious LA-LA Land stadium.
ReplyDeleteHow many TD's tonight for Guerendzone?
ReplyDeleteI’m looking for the O line to give Purdy time to throw and not make penalties and I looking for the D line to play tough in the 4th quarter.
ReplyDelete2 dropped ints. that can't happen
ReplyDeleteUh oh the rain is starting
ReplyDeletePurdy had both Kittle and Jennings open deep. He under threw Kittle and over threw Jennings
ReplyDeleteHerbstreit, Michaels and Amazon don't know who Trent Williams is.
ReplyDeleteDeebo come on man...
ReplyDeleteFelix
ReplyDeleteThe 49ers absolutely can not extend Purdy this off season
ReplyDeletesure throws lousy deep passes especially along the sideline and they float, too. Had kittle open and Jennings and pearsall.
DeleteThey will extend Purdy and give him around 60 M. He is one of the best QBs in the league by any objective criteria. I now that some fans always criticize the coach or the QB for a loss or mistakes that happen to every player in every game. On that late interception, he was under extreme pressure and wasn’t able to get off the throw he wanted. Some will will criticize him for even making the throw but if it had been successful he would have been praised.
DeleteThere are lots of reasons for the loss. How about Deebo’s drop? How about Campbell’s quitting, or 2 dropped interceptions? I guess we should not extend those players also. lot of mistakes made by other players, but it’s so easy to go after the coach and QB.
The only thing that could be worse than losing is finding out that Greenlaw reinjured his Achilles
ReplyDeleteYikes, let's hope not!
DeleteThe loss is on Shanhan, too. His deference to Samuel is so weak. Coach, Samuel stinks. What's with you. Playing favorites?
ReplyDeleteA very good defensive effort wasted by the offense.
ReplyDeletePearsall was getting separation. That was nice. Jaylon Moore's been good and Bartch, too. Next year, the O-line should be better even if we just shuffle the players we already have. And the running backs and kittle and jennings -- the offense is maybe good to great next year. I don't see the 9ers not signing Purdy even though they could let him play on the last year of his rookie contract.
ReplyDeleteLee,
DeleteI disagree about the O line. Tonight was a perfect example. Stafford had far more time than Purdy and there were almost no holes for the 9ers RBs. I believe that the only way BP can win a SB is to put him behind the kind of O line that Jimmy G played with in 2019. The 49ers can tie Purdy up for the next 2 seasons without killing themselves with the salary cap. Make BP play under the last year of his rookie contract and then franchise tag him.
I'm in no hurry to pay Purdy -- I'm with you.
DeleteIf Williams is left tackle next year and Bartch at left guard/center and Puni -- that's three out of five and maybe they let Moore compete with McKivitz ...
I don't think the Line is that good. It should be a dominate Run blocking line and mediocre pass blocking line. However, I think they made a fundamental mistake with Trent. Not because he is not a good player, but because they became too reliant on him.
DeleteHaving 1 great player does not make a line good. (Yes Puni, was a pleasant surprise)
I would much rather have average linemen across the board as it makes you far less susceptible to an injury ruining your season. Second, it allows you to be far more flexible in how you attack opposing teams.
One could easily make the argument that the difference in O lines was the difference in the outcome. Purdy was under pressure a lot and they couldn’t develop holes in the run game, the Rams o line was much better. I think they need to give serious thought to the O line. I think it’s time to draft a left tackle with a high pick.
DeleteSame pattern from Purdy tonight. Missing passes (underthrown/overthrown) and not seeing wide open WRs. At least the wet ball didn't slip out of his hand. The Int he threw was a game killer that deflated the entire team. Either Brock is playing with an injury or he has regressed. Deebo deserved the fans booing him tonight. There's no fire in his play this year.
ReplyDeleteI felt that the 49ers needed a good draft in 2025 to strengthen some areas. It's now looking like they need a complete overhaul.
AES,
DeleteI don't think they need a "complete overhaul. The D has looked much better the last 2 games. I think the O line needs an overhaul and the D line needs a couple of additions. I have been saying it for a while now, put BP behind an O line like they had in 2019 and I think he could win a SB
I won't be surprised if Purdy's shoulder is bothering him.
DeleteRight now they need to get 2 average DT's that are pluses in the run games as they are just getting pushed over at the Point of Attack.
DeleteThey need another quality linebacker, as I don't think you can trust GreenLaw to be the same, or to stay healthy given his play style.
They need a wide receiver that can consistently beat man.
They need at least 2 new starting quality linemen. They don't have to be great just solid, average starters. And I think one of those needs to be an OT.
All that is left now is for 49Reasons (Anonymous) to come on here and spread his Christmas cheer, lol.
ReplyDeleteAES,
DeleteI can not wait
I was already looking at the draft prior to this game, and was saying they need to get the best player at OG, OT, C,T, or DT, DE, LB.
ReplyDeleteSo already a lot of players... but after this Game I really think you need to add QB to the list.
I liked Purdy but honestly at this point... I have to admit I had more confidence in Jimmy bringing his team from behind than I with Brock.
I would still Likely go OT, then DT, DE and then QB in the draft.
That said I don't like this draft class at all for qb's, but they have to bring in someone to challenge Brock
Disappointing season at so many levels.
ReplyDeleteFirst step of offseason, KS should plan Cabo trip without any of the players.
Campbell is not a professional man. Cut him already.
Shanahan has completely lost control of the team. Purdy has
ReplyDeletebeen completely exposed too and nowhere worth the $55M-$60M frequently mentioned. Time for a reset! Start with the hapless, overmatched coach and the mistake-prone front office.
Reply
De'Vondre Campbell has no doubt seen his last game as a 49ers after his cheap stunt in quitting on the team last night. I'm glad to see that some 49ers players called him out on that.
ReplyDeleteYup I hope his career is done for.
DeleteThe draft season is upon us!
ReplyDeleteTime to make our early Draftmas wishes. I'll be looking forward to seeing your draft projections.
ReplyDeleteDefense played much better last night not only because of Greenlaw (who was fantastic especially given the circumstances) but because as AFFP pointed out over on Niners Nation, they played less wide 9 in base downs.
ReplyDeleteAES
ReplyDeleteStill too early to make draft projects. Better player prospective after Bowl games, Combine and pro day.
IMO, 9er BPA needs in draft: DT, OT, EDGE, CENTER, CB, LB, OG,
FREE AGENTS: 1) Try to sign QB Darnold and Pay both him and BP ~$15 Mil. P/Y. Let them both compete for 2025 starting QB.
2) Sign a F/A TE, WR and S with money saved from not paying BP
$60 - $65 Mil P/Y
3) Haircuts or post June 1 cuts for overpaid players like DT Hargrave, LB Campbell, WR Deebo etc
You're right GEEP. And even thought I miss on my projected picks on draft day, it's still a fun guilty pleasure that I enjoy anytime time of the year.
DeleteAES
DeleteAhh yes, we all have our vices! We both suffer from the same predilections!
** draft projections**
ReplyDelete2025 TE Class 🔥:
ReplyDelete• Tyler Warren (Penn State)
• Colston Loveland (Michigan)
• Elijah Arroyo (Miami)
• Mason Taylor (LSU)
• Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt)
• Gunnar Helm (Texas)
• Jake Briningstool (Clemson)
• Oronde Gadsden II (Syracuse)
• Harold Fannin Jr (Bowling Green)
• Moliki Matavao (UCLA)
• Terrance Ferguson (Oregon)
• Gavin Bartholomew (Pitt)
• Luke Lachey (Iowa)
• Rivaldo Fairweather (Auburn)
Razor,
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy with TE, Tyler Warren. But not so much as a 1st rd pick. I'm not familiar with the other guys but I'll check them out going forward. 1st - 3rd rd priorities imho, are Edge, Oline, and DL (interior).
Razor, I have a question. Should the 49ers draft a QB on 3rd day of the draft?
Razor
ReplyDelete* Both Warren and Loveland are projected RD #1 draft prospects. Both need to work on their blocking, in-line and pass protection.
Players drafted in Rd #1 should, IMO, be day 1 starters, I doubt KS would gives reps to either unless and until their blocking improved.
* I have Elijah ArroyoTE | Miami (FL) as a day 3 draft pick. His college career has been marred by injuries, limiting his on-field production.
* I have Mason as a Rd #3 prospect. While I don't think drafting a TE is a priority, if I was going to draft a TE it would be Mason.
* You don't list TE Harold Fannin Jr.TE | Bowling Green, I would argue
he's also a Rd #3 draft prospect.
* Eli Stowers TE Vanderbilt, at 225 pounds, he's MAYBE a possession WR? If he plays as a TE, maybe a move TE? Correct me if I'm wrong,
but didn't he play for Texas A&M as a QB, then convert to a TE, after transferring to Vanderbuilt?
There are a few questions that need to be answered before making draft projections. #1 Do they extend Purdy this off season and if they do for how much? #2 Can they afford to resign Greenlaw? #3 Is there any way they could resign Moony Ward for a cheap 1 year deal? #4 Do they resign Banks? #5 Do they resign McKivitz. Questions 2 through 5 depend on #1. How much Money do they spend on BP? If they force him to play on his rookie contract they will have money to resign the players they want and to sign a few FAs. Lastly will BP hold in if the 49ers force him to play under his rookie contract? I believe he will.
ReplyDeleteEven if they don't extend Purdy, they will have to keep cap space in the bank in case he earns the big deal next year, so I don't think they can go crazy in getting pieces around him regardless.
DeleteI still expect they will extend him, but I very much think it will be a deal with some easy outs.
Scooter,
DeleteThey could franchise tag him in 2026. I wonder how much less than the #1 QB salary the Avg of the top 5 would be?
Coach- I don't believe there is ANY way an agent would allow his starting QB to play w/out a new deal.......... I believe the 49ers, like the Dubs, have some very serious decisions to make. I thought they were in discussions w Banks..... I believe McKivitz played well this year, even if it isn't a popular signing... and w Moore a FA, would be wise to have that position locked down before the draft......If you wish to think outside the box, could always seek a trade of BP to the Jets for Rodgers, Sauce Gardner and Adams........send them Deebo as well. ;)
DeletePurdy can call the 49ers bluff or perceived bluff and sit out two years. I think he will hold in and then start practicing 1 week before the opener. I wouldn't trade 2 practice squad players for Rodgers. If they do anything outside the box, I could see them bidding for Sam Darnold. I think they could sign him for less than they will have to pay for BP. Another choice would be trade for J.J. Mcarthy. I think they could get him for Deebo, Pearsall, Ji'Ayir Brown and a 2nd round pick. It would clear their cap issues for 4 years giving them a ton of money to take care of their O line and D line issues. To be a quality O line I believe they need a new C,OT and either Banks, Bartch or Burford at LG.
DeleteOldcoach- MINN likes McCarthy......... I was disappointed Darnold left but happy he got an opportunity to get paid and start. It will prove telling how sentimental Lynch is in the off-season vs how badly he wants to win. Rodgers w an OL and 2-3 yrs in this system would do really well, I believe- probably not a popular assessment, I get that.
DeleteOldCoach
Delete"I wonder how much less than the #1 QB salary the Avg of the top 5 would be?
Google says:
If 9ers used franchise tag on Brock Purdy, the average salary of the top 5 QB's in the NFL would be between $55 million and $65 million per season:
Dak Prescott: Cowboys, $60 million per year
Joe Burrow: Bengals, $55 million per year
Jordan Love: Packers, $55 million per year
Trevor Lawrence: Jaguars, $55 million per year
Top quarterback in 2026: Could be $65 million per year
I just can’t understand how some people are talking about not signing Purdy to an extension. It makes absolutely no sense. He is a top tier QB. His numbers aren’t as good this year because the team wasn’t as good this year with injuries etc. last year proves he’s one of the best. There is no one who would be available to replace Purdy who would be better. If there was, they would want 60 million also. He’s only started about 2 years worth of games so he has upside. The QB is the most important person on the team, and every team wants the best one they can get.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of areas on this team that need upgrading, but Purdy and Kyle aren’t on that list. period.
Felix,
DeleteNot signing BP to an extension this off season doesn't mean they would have to replace him. They have him under contract through the 2025 season. It would give the 49ers one more season to evaluate him. (Hopefully with healthy RBs and WRs and behind a better O line) I believe that by the start of Nov. they should be sure of whether he is the QB he was in 2023 or the QB he has been this season. If he is the good BP they can start negotiations then. imho
Felix:
DeleteCan you name the QB(s) that BP is better than?
2024 season top paid NFL QB's
Dak Prescott = $60 Mil P/Y
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love = $55 Mil P/Y
Tua Tagovailoa = $53.1 Mil P/Y
Jared Goff = $53 Mil P/Y
Justin Herbert = $52.5 Mil P/Y
Lamar Jackson = $52 Mil P/Y
Jalen Hurts = $51 Mil P/Y
Kyler Murray = $46.1 Mil P/Y
Deshaun Watson = $46 Mll P/Y
Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins = $45 Mil P/Y
Josh Allen = $43 Mil P/Y
Matthew Stafford = $40 Mil P/Y
https://frontofficesports.com/top-10-highest-paid-nfl-quarterbacks-for-2024/
Old coach. I’m pretty sure the Niners have enough information to properly evaluate Purdy and under no circumstances are they going to mess this up. They are going to sign him this off season and they will play the market. He has more plus120 QB ratings than any QB has ever gotten in their first 3 years. Waiting another year would only drive up the price so their is no possible savings.
DeleteGeep, I believe Purdy is better than most on your list and their salaries don’t matter because it is based on when they signed. The current market for a top QB is 60 million plus and it’s only going to get higher. Hopefully the Niners learned their lesson with Aiyuk. They let it drag out hoping to save a couple million and it cost them dearly. I foresee the Niners coming to an agreement with Purdy in the 60 million range long before OTA’s.
Felix
Delete"Old coach. I’m pretty sure the Niners have enough information to properly evaluate Purdy."
* Are the the same Niners that gave up three 1St Rd draft picks and a 3Rd Rd pick for QB Lance? And how did that work out?
* Are these also the same Niners that gave Deebo a three-year extension in 2022 worth $71.55 million, with $58.1 million guaranteed. And how has that worked out?
Oh, and BTW, are these the same Niners that gave Hargrave
a four-year, $84 million deal, including $40 million guaranteed?
BUT HEY, IT DON'T MATTER?.....Because it is based on when they signed? SERIOUSLY Felix, do you see a trend here? A
trend that even a fan boy has to admit it has NOT worked out?
So as the old adage goes, "when you find yourself in a hole,
STOP DIGGING!
Steve Young gives honest evaluation of 49ers Brock Purdy in rain game & how Brock plays:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MlR1fobhKo
I don't see the 49ers letting Purdy walk. Has he been consistently stellar this season? No. But I don't see any FA or QB draft pick that can replace Purdy. The FO will make the roster moves needed to accommodate Brock, imho. My only pause is, will he improve his arm strength and decision making and will he learn to scan the field to find open wrs when his first choice is covered? Opposing Dcords seemed to have found the blueprint to limit his play. Yet, I've seen Purdy's ability to play great and want the 49ers to surround him with a healthy supporting cast. In my 60+ yrs as a 49ers fan, I can't recall any season that brought so much pain on and off the field. Next year with Purdy at the helm, will make or break the 49ers for yrs to come.
ReplyDeleteAES / Anyone on the Blog
ReplyDelete" I don't see any FA or QB draft pick that can replace Purdy."
Question: Can the Vikings afford to pay Sam Darnold and what
then will they do with QB J.J. McCarthey if they did?
* What would it cost the Vikings to resign Darnold?
* Also, there's Daniel Jones, another discarded former 1St Rd pick who just landed on the Vikings' practice squad.
* Re-sign Darnold: If the Vikings could re-sign Darnold for ~$20 Mil
it would limit their resources for any other roster improvements.
* The Vikings have projected cap space of over $76 million for 2025. JJ McCarthy's rookie contract is guaranteed for $21.85 million. that
would leave the Vikings with ~$45 Mil Cap space.
* What would it cost the 9ers to sign Darnold and can they afford to?
* If the 9ers signed Darnold for ~$20 Mil, as well as offer to extend BP for ~$20 Mil. the 9ers would have the cap space ~$20 - $25 Mil. to keep some 9er players who will become F/A's in 2025, as well as sign 1 - 2 good free agents from other NFL teams.
* Darnold and BP would compete for stating QB in 2025. If BP
decided to set in, so be it. He would not get paid, 9ers would have a
starting QB that was as good as, perhaps better than BP.
Plus the 9ers could use the franchise tag in 2026, if needed.
The 9ers can cut both Javon Hargrave and Deebo Samuel as post June 1st
Delete* "The 9ers reduced Hargrave's base salary from ~$19.9 Mil. to $2.1 million, dropping Hargrave's salary cap number from $28.105 million to $10.305 million in the process.
* Releasing Samuel as a post-June 1 cut would allow the 9ers to defray that cost over two years, and if they do decide to move on, that’s the more likely decision.
Samuel is signed through 2025 and is due nearly $16 million next season. Per OTC, a post-June 1 release would still hit the
9ers with $10.75 million in dead money in 2025 and 2026 (a void year) but would generate $5.2 million and $22.39 million in savings over those two years, respectively.
Geep,
DeleteDarnold could not beat put Purdy last year, nor McCarthy this year. It’s questionable whether he can find a starting job next year. Furthermore if the Niners don’t extend Purdy he’ll demand a trade and get his 60 million somewhere else. It’s not going to happen.
Felix
DeleteI hate to rain on your parade Felix, but last year is LAST YEAR!
You do know what NFL stands for, right? Not for Long?
What have you done for me today, is what counts in the NFL. Remind me again, if you'd be so kind, WHO is going to play in the post season? BP RIGHT? And please, remind me what
the definition of a meritocracy is? Isn't that what KS and JL
claim how the 9ers are?
Do you think it's possible that KS had already made up his
mind who his starting QB was going to be, regardless of who
won the competition for starting QB? And his decision was
based on BP's performance the previous year?
Geep, you are entitled to your opinion no matter how wrong it is. I have a different opinion and I’m very happy to let it play out and review this next year when one of us will be able to say “I told you so”. See you then.
DeleteFelix "Geep, you are entitled to your opinion no matter how wrong it is."
DeleteThanks Felix, good to know if I don't share your opinion, I'm wrong?
So tell me Felix, what university did you play football? Or if
you didn't, what high school?
Something I have been saying since way back on the PD site is games are won in the trenches. The 49ers need to make big improvements in their O and D lines. I strongly believe that BP can win a SB behind a good to very good O line. I believe that the current O line is neither good or very good. I would say they are slightly below Avg. I don't think much of McKivitz and I think Brendel is terrible. If they can replace those two players with good to very good players I think they would have a SB level O. Of course as we learned this year health comes first.
ReplyDeleteOldCoach
DeleteNot that I disagree with you, because I DON'T, but only if BP has a VERY GOOD O-Line!
I would only add that IMO, the 9ers need to draft TW's replacement at L OT. Not because his play has decline that much, but because at age 36 his body is proving to be human. He has missed too many games due to injury. While 36 Y/O doesn't mean you're injured more often, it does require longer to heal.
* There will be many changes to what rounds 2025 draft prospect are drafted after the Bowl games, Combine and
Pro day, but I like the following player if the draft was held today......
Rd #1: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Rd #2: Wyatt Milum, OT, W. Virginia
Rd #3: Jordan Burch, EDGE, Oregon
Jake Manors, C, Texas
Rd #4: Bryce Foster, OG/C, Kansas
Rd #5: Samuel Mondon, CB/S, Georgia
Rd #6: Bhayshul Tuten. RB, Virginia Tech
Rd #7: TBD
The Combine has become more of a cash cow for espn and nfl network for me. Not saying that these events don't elevate or hurt the invited players. But many players over the years that have wowed the attending head coaches and GMs haven't always done the same thing at the next level. Two examples that fit that argument
ReplyDeleteIs Tom Brady, who didn't meet the Combine measurables. And Zack Wilson that wowed everyone at the Combine and private workouts but has been a disappointment as has the top 3 QBs that were selected in the same draft. My hope is that the 49ers can find somewhat hidden gems like Kittle, Warner, Purdy and D. Puni that keep the team strong for years.
AES / Felix / Anyone
ReplyDelete* I couldn't agree with you more! But players that perform at
the Combine do move up NFL team draft boards! And we all
know that It's the NFL team(s) front office that decide who,
and when to draft any given player. They're not forced to
draft, or not draft, any draft prospect.
* Based on the 9ers 2024 draft, you would be inclined to
believe they'd also draft well in 2025. BUT, we also have to
accept the fact that JL and KS have made mistakes, both in
draft picks as well as over paying some players.
* I've used the example of QB Lance as a player that could
have cost KS and JL their jobs, but didn't because BP saved them from suffering that fate!. Ipso Facto, it's possible they could be biased when evaluating BP and what he's worth?
* IF, as both JL and KS claim, the 9ers are a meritocracy,
then they, and as 9er fans, We should welcome competition
between BP and Sam Darnold...And may the BEST MAN WIN!!
As to the importance of the combine. I think there are many important tests such as the 10 yard split, 3 cone drill and the interviews. The media and fans seem to put more importance in the "sexy" drills like the 40 and vertical jump. Those last 2 drills especially do not seem to be good measures of NFL success.
DeleteFor me the most important trait is the knowledge of the game at lightning speed. Physical traits are absolutely important but mean nothing if the brain isn't engaged.
DeleteAbsolutely 💯. I think his is the mistake made by many who draft people based on high measurables. A perfect example of this is the drafting of Anthony Richardson. He did not make more than 50% of his passes in college and surprise surprise, he is doing the same in the NFL. Some people like to harp on Purdy because he isn’t 6’ 4” but ignore that he has the trait most important for a QB which is elite processing ability. This applies to any player in any sport to some degree.
DeleteFelix: "People like to harp on Purdy because he isn’t 6’ 4” but ignore that he has the trait most important for a QB which is elite processing ability."
Delete* Yet BP struggles to throw into tight windows when the defense plays man coverage? HOW CAN THIS BE?
ANSWER: BP is known for his anticipatory throws against zone coverage, but man coverage requires different skills. Before the snap, BP has to guess which receiver will win their matchup. * Beating man coverage requires arm talent, and Purdy doesn't throw with much velocity. This season, the 9er receivers haven't created separation, so Purdy scrambles instead of throwing. Defenses drop more defenders into coverage and force BP to throw deep into tight windows that result in INT's.
STATS:
Through 13 games, Purdy's completion percentage against man coverage was 41.1, ranking 33rd in the NFL and his QB rating against man coverage was 59.3, ranking 32nd in the league.
Geep,
DeleteIn what way does he struggle in tight windows? If you mean he has a lower completion % of course, that would be true of any QB. A tight window would mean the DB is right there to contest the pass. That’s not on the QB.
Please explain how throwing harder into man coverage gets better results. If the receiver is covered, he’s covered and it’s up to the receiver to get separation and fight for the ball.
As for your stats, I don’t have access to these to verify. Where do you get these?
Felix: "In what way does he struggle in tight windows?
DeleteIf I have to explain it to you Felix, you still wouldn't understand even if I did explain it to you.
There are a lot of great traits in many drafted players, but none of those traits become absolutes until they are proven at the next level. I often think of which 1st rd players the 49ers could have picked had they not gambled them away with the Trey Lance swing and miss.
ReplyDeleteAES,
ReplyDeleteIf they hadn't traded up they would likely have ended up with Mac Jones. With the picks they gave up for Lance they might have drafted well or they might not have. One thing you would know for sure is their drafts would have been different. So different that they may not have taken a flier on a QB from Iowa St with the last pick in the 7th round the year after they chose Jones. So Mac Jones as our starter and no Purdy. They might be a whole hell of a lot worse.
Good point, Coach.
ReplyDeleteLOOKS LIKE I'M NOT THE ONLY ONE!
ReplyDeleteWhat fans believe 49ers should pay Purdy per year with new contract
* A majority of the 49ers Faithful polled (38 percent) believe Purdy should receive a contract extension in the $20 million- to $30 million-per year range, while 29 percent view him worthy of anywhere from $31 million to $40 million per year. Fewer fans think Purdy should earn more, with 19 percent voting for the $41 million to $50 million range and 14 percent choosing $51 million to $60 million.
https://sports.yahoo.com/fans-believe-49ers-pay-purdy-014150995.html
It will likely be $50-60m because Purdy's agent will advise Brock to take a higher bid elsewhere. The 49ers could play hardball like with Aiyuk, but like with Aiyuk they will sign Brock.
ReplyDeleteAES
DeleteOK, I get that! But what will his agent do if he 9ers sign San Darnold and let him compete for starting QB?
Some have suggested he'll sit it. OK, so Darnold is the starting
QB! Do you really believe BP would sit in? Or would he fire his
agent and compete? As far as taking a higher bid else where,
how can he do that when he's still under contract with the 9ers? And don't forget the 9ers can use the franchise tag in
2026 - 2027!
GEEP,
DeleteI think if the 49ers were to sign Darnold, Purdy would hold in and demand a trade. If the 49ers could get back an attractive package and BPs agent could work out a good deal I think the trade would be done. The only problem with this scenario is, if Darnold continues to play well and possibly wins 1-3 games in the playoffs he won't be any cheaper than BP. He might be more expensive. If Darnold plays well the rest of the way I think the Vikes will resign him. That would make JJ McCarthy available for a 1st round pick.
OC
DeleteAs a hypothetical scenario, we can only make assumptions and anything possible.
* Antithetically, it's possible BP wins the competition and Sam
Darnold is the backup QB, but if he did, we still won't know if BP is capable of adjusting to man coverage and so far he has
not shown he can throw into tight windows. Granted, part of
the problem is the O-line not giving him enough time.
* IMO, KC's DC Spagnuolo showed the rest of the NFL how to
beat BP and KS with tight man coverage, shifting to a 1 high safety, the SS moving up on the LOS, stacking the box with an extra D-lineman and using exotic blitz packages.
* The 9ers O-line runs zone schemes that depends on doubling
the 4 D-linemen. By stacking the box the KC D forced the 9ers O-lineman to play 1 on 1 against KC's D-lineman and opened
lanes for KC to blitz BP.
Agree, Coach. Plus, there may be a few teams that will sign Darnold with the sole purpose of being their starting QB as opposed to competing for a starting job as would be the case with the 49ers.
ReplyDeleteAES / OldCoach
ReplyDeleteBe careful what you wish for!
If Stafford decides to retire, 9ers fans may see a lot more of Darnold than we want to! Like twice a year, every year, for several years! The Rams are the NFL team most likely to sign Darnold to a new multi year contract.
I haven't heard any whispers that Stafford might retire. Have you?
DeleteGEEP,
DeleteStafford has a great core of receivers and his oline has done a good job of keeping him clean. Plus, he also has a beautiful home stadium to play in. I would be surprised if Stafford retired.
OC
ReplyDeleteStafford considered retirement prior to the 2023 NFL season
after a 2022 season riddled by injuries. He agreed to restructure the 4 year, $160 million contract he signed with the Rams following his 2021 Super Bowl win.
His restructured contract would allow the Rams to release or trade him without a negative impact to their salary cap after this season.
.As a 36 Y/O QB, he could decide to retire?
If the Rams decided to sign Darnold and release Stafford. The 49ers should jump on Stafford. Maybe Stafford would give the 49ers a team friendly deal to get back at the Rams.The 9ers could then force Purdy to play out his rookie contract or sit out a full year. With a better C and right OT along with some improvement along the D line I think Stafford could win one or two SBs with the 49ers
ReplyDeleteI will defer to Mike Shanahan who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks, "When you have a guy like that in your building, you don't let him out" in reference to Brock Purdy.
ReplyDeleteAgree 100%. I’ll go further and predict this will not drag out. He’ll be signed fairly early because they are going to want Purdy to be pleased with the amount and with the process as opposed to saving a couple of million. Knowing the 49ers, I’m sure the contract will have its surprises. Does Purdy prioritize high salary or high guaranteed money? TBD.
DeleteMike Shanahan made this comment back in 2022. Purdy did not look like the 2022 version of himself this season. But, I'll give him a pass because of the 2024 season of pain.
DeleteFelix,
DeleteYou posted, "Does Purdy prioritize high salary or high guaranteed money"? My question would be does Purdy prioritize winning over getting as much money as he can?
It's not like Purdy lost his $30 million dollar WR or anything.
DeleteOld coach. Who does that? Almost nobody. It’s against human nature. We all seek the highest raise and it’s often seen as a validation for our self assessment. If you think you’re one of the best and deserve that amount you’re not going to want to take less. If you think he might take a discount, you’re expecting too much from him.
DeleteOne of the dumbest comments I've read from fans regarding Purdy's contract expectations is his christian "facade" has been lifted and citing scripture about greed. 🤦♂️
DeleteRazor: I will defer to Mike Shanahan who knows a thing or two about quarterbacks, "When you have a guy like that in your building, you don't let him out."
DeleteREALLY? Remind me again, what's the name of the QB KS gave up 3 1st Rd draft picks for, plus a 3Rd round draft pick?
Was it Lance? And who was he traded to? Dallas?
Mike Shanahan wanted Lance? Nah
DeleteThis is my thoughts on Purdy's contract. I think Purdy is going to surprise some people and take less than the projected dollars. I think Purdy understands the business part of football and he realizes the more he takes the less the Niners have to spend on talent elsewhere. I think he understands the fact he needs talent around him to be successful. I think he really is a team player...there I go thinking again.
ReplyDeleteWell TBD. I think it’s all going to work out for Purdy. I’m more concerned about the rest of the team. Sure there were lots of injuries but there are other issues as well. Some games tackling was terrible, special teams were horrible, games with lots of penalties, Deebo’s down year, 4th quarter defensive collapses, etc. Many of these issues could be caused by a lack of effort, or lack of conditioning or maybe just too many 3rd stringers playing. Thought on this?
ReplyDeleteYou forgot to add that there were also issues with Purdy forcing passes into tight coverage, issues with wet weather. Missing downfield passes and not seeing open receivers. Btw, you are right about the problems you stated as well.
ReplyDeleteI suspect Brock to get a similar contract to Tua's. Guaranteed money always tells the story over APY.
ReplyDeleteTua APY is 5th highest while his guaranteed money is 12th highest.
ReplyDelete49ers GM John Lynch on De’Vondre Campbell, basically: “He f’d around and found it. No further comment.”
ReplyDeleteIf Dak Prescott and Deshuan Watson who have nothing of real significance can get paid, I certainly wouldn't mind Purdy getting paid. But the 49ers need to find a true backup that can keep the team competitive if Purdy goes into a funk.
ReplyDeleteAfter paying Purdy I’m Not sure how much they would be willing to spend on a backup. I think they are satisfied with Brandon Allen at 1.5 million.
DeleteI believe you're right on that. But, at some point it be prudent to give Mordecai some more snaps in next yrs TC and preseason. I doubt Dobbs will be back.
DeleteI would expect that he will be QB 3 or at least given the opportunity to compete for it.
Deletehave *done
ReplyDelete