George "Freaking" Kittle!
Word on the street is Dee Ford is set to be released. I can't hardly believe it because it's only going to save the 49ers $2 million next year, and leave them buried with close to an $11 million dead cap hit. Do you believe this story? I do not because once released that $11 million hits the books. They'll need to restructure someone else to get that $11 million before they'll be able to release him, right?
The 49ers scraped home against the Bengals in overtime, with a walk-off TD pass from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brandon Aiyuk sealing a nail-biter. The game was a lot closer than it had any right to be, but the Bengals shook off a torrid and mistake-filled first half while the 49ers offense slumbered in the second.
In the end though it is the result that matters. The 49ers beat a team with a record above .500 for just the second time this season, and it lifts them to a 7-6 record and a one game buffer in the race for the 6th seed in the NFC. The win was especially vital for a 49ers team that lost embarrassingly last week to the Seahawks, and had some key players out injured, as well as others that were playing through injury.
Here's what stood out to me.
Turnovers prove the difference
Whoever said it is better to give than receive was clearly not talking about a game of football. The Bengals took a leaf out of the 49ers 2021 playbook and gifted the 49ers the ball deep in their own territory on two occasions in the first half through muffed punt returns. The 49ers would convert those mistakes into 10 valuable first half points. A good thing, too, as outside of those short fields the 49ers only had one drive of note in the first half, which was capped by a Deebo Samuel 27 yard scamper for a TD around the right edge (which was well blocked by Kittle and Compton).
Aside from those muffed punt returns, the Bengals had some other near misses in the first half too that were saved by the bounce of the ball, as well as an INT called back due to a hands to the face call that likely didn't impact the play, some key drops (including one on a would be TD to Chase), and a lucky non-call on what should have been DPI on Kittle deep downfield. It was an error-ridden first half by the Bengals that gave the 49ers control of the game despite not really earning it.
Second half blues
The 49ers looked to be in complete control of the game at half time, leading 17-6 at the break. But for a second straight week the 49ers offense struggled to get anything going in the second stanza while the defense had issues containing the Bengals through the air. The Bengals were able to get back into the game and level the scores at 20 a piece late in the 4th quarter to send it to extra time.
While it didn't prove costly in this one, the inability to put a game away, as well as going long stretches where they let the opposition dominate a game, is something that has plagued the 49ers for much of the 2021 season. The 49ers have to do a better job of playing 60 minutes of football, in all phases.
Clutch Jimmy
It may not have been a Good Jimmy performance per se, in fact Jimmy G and the 49ers offense struggled to get much going for most of the game. That wasn't all on Jimmy though - the running game was bottled up for the most part bar for a few chunk runs which put them in 3rd and long situations often. Nor was it a Bad Jimmy performance - he avoided turnovers and came up with some nice passes throughout the game. In fact Jimmy was quite good on first down in this game, it was the ability to convert third and longs that let the team down (again, not all on Jimmy as the pass protection failed to hold up a number of times too).
It was, however, a Clutch Jimmy performance. After the Bengals locked the scores up at 20-20, Jimmy drove the 49ers downfield into Bengals territory to give Robbie Gould a shot to be the hero. The drive included a 19 yard George Kittle catch on 3rd and long to get them in FG range. Unfortunately for Jimmy and the 49ers, Gould's attempt sailed wide right.
Then after the Bengals scored a FG on the opening drive of OT, Jimmy G marched the 49ers 75 yards for the TD, most of which came from his arm as he completed all six of his passes for 78 yards and the TD (Kittle had a false start early in the drive). The pass along the right sideline to Jauan Jennings was impressive, as he trusted his receiver to make the contested play but also put it where the defender didn't have much of a shot at it.
The People's Tight End
George Kittle proved again why he is the most dynamic TE in the league. He may not be putting up numbers like a Travis Kelce over the course of the season, but his ability to take over a game and make big plays is second to none from the TE spot. Today Kittle had 13 catches for 151 yards and a TD, including a number of big plays in critical moments. Add that to his ability in the running game and there is no other TE I'd rather have when healthy.
Secondary woes
The loss of Emmanuel Moseley may prove costly for the 49ers. Ambry Thomas made the start in his place this week, and to say he looked shaky would be generous. He was responsible for the hands to the face call in the first half that cost Ward his third INT of the season. He didn't learn from his mistake as he was flagged for the same infringement later taking a sack away from Bosa. Both of the Bengals TDs came on his side of the field, one of which definitely was against his coverage (with another he got away with due to a Chase drop). And he consistently failed to get correct depth in zone, leaving spaces wide open behind him.
Ryans tried to help him out as much as possible with safety help over the top, but as a result it left the middle of the field exposed which the Bengals started to take advantage of in the second half.
This performance made it pretty clear why Thomas has struggled to see the field as a rookie - he still has a lot of learning to do and leaving him out there runs a very real risk of ruining him.
Big picture
This may not have been a must win match for the 49ers given the state of the NFC, but it certainly was an important one from the point of view of strengthening the 49ers hold on a playoff spot. Heading into the 49ers game there were five teams sitting on 6 wins and 7 losses, and had the 49ers lost the 49ers would have made it six, with those teams vying for two playoff spots.
Instead the 49ers find themselves as the lone 7 win and 6 loss team in the NFC, giving them a one game lead over their rivals for the 6th seed.
Of course, this win just makes the loss to the Seahawks all the more frustrating in a way - with the Rams playing the number one seed Cardinals on Monday there is a very real chance the 49ers could have been tied with the Rams by the end of the week's games had they taken care of business last week.
#49ers Inactives:
RB Elijah Mitchell (concussion, knee) LB Dre Greenlaw (groin) DT Maurice Hurst (calf) CB Dontae Johnson (personal matter) LB Tyrell Adams OL Colton McKivitz
The 49ers travel to the jungle in week 14 to take on the 7-5 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have been something of a surprise team in the congested AFC North and currently sit second in the division just one game behind the Baltimore Ravens.
For the 49ers, last week was a microcosm of the strange and mostly frustrating 2021 49ers season. Coming off the back of three straight wins to right what looked to be a sinking ship at the midway point of the season, the team reverted back to early season form with a raft of mistakes and miscues from all three phases to lose to what was a 3 win Seahawks team.
While the 49ers currently remain in an NFC playoff spot, their hold on that spot is now far more tenuous. They likely need to win 3 of their remaining 5 contests to be confident of booking their spot, but will be facing three teams above .500 over that span, starting with the Bengals. While this isn't a "must win" game, a loss to the Bengals will in all likelihood have the 49ers on the outside looking in for a playoff spot by the end of this week's games.
To make matters more difficult, they came out of that Seahawks game with more injury concerns and now have to travel to Cincinnati missing a number of key players, and nursing others through some nicks. The RB and CB depth in particular is a huge concern, especially given the team's recent reliance on the running game. On a positive note it looks like Deebo Samuel will play, but he will be carrying a groin injury into the game and you have to imagine the 49ers will look to limit his workload.
This looks like it may be a tough challenge for the 49ers, and while I am hopeful for a victory I can't say I am expectant. If the 49ers do pull it off, here are the key areas I think they need to get strong performances.
49ers undermanned secondary stepping up against the Bengals WRs. Even if Jason Verrett, Emmanuel Moseley and Dontae Johnson were available the matchup between the 49ers secondary and Bengals wide receivers would have been a significant mismatch in the Bengals favour. Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are one of the most potent receiving trios in the NFL, with each of that trio having over 50 receptions this season for a combined 2,212 yards (almost 70% of the Bengals total receiving yards on the season).
Unfortunately for the 49ers it is expected to be Josh Norman and either Ambry Thomas or Deommodore Lenoir as the starting left and right CBs in this one. That doesn't bode well for the 49ers.
If the 49ers are to have any chance in this one they need to limit the damage the Bengals WR trio does. It is probably asking too much for them to shut these players down, but getting some critical pass breakups and (ideally) some turnovers will go a long way to keying a 49ers victory.
Getting to Joe. Joe Burrow has had a fine second season, coming back from a horrendous knee injury as a rookie. He's thrown for over 3,000 yards in 12 games, with 23 TDs and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. He's helmed the 7th highest scoring offense in the NFL this season. However, if you were to point to the main area of weakness in Burrow's game it would be how he handles pass rush pressure.
This of course isn't anything ground breaking for a young QB - most QBs perform worse under pressure. But for Burrow, his struggles are quite pronounced. His passer rating under pressure is almost half that when not under pressure. Almost half of his league leading 14 intercepts have come when pressured. And he also struggles to avoid the pressure, currently sitting as the second most sacked QB in the NFL in 2021.
Given the mismatch in the 49ers secondary outlined above it will therefore be critical that the 49ers pass rush get to Burrow early and often in this one to help create turnovers and defensive stops.
Good Jimmy. The 49ers will be without leading rusher Elijah Mitchell. Mostert is long gone for the season. Trey Sermon is out with an ankle injury. Deebo is expected to play but was limited all week as he is nursing a groin injury that saw him miss the Seahawks game. Wilson has also been limited with knee pain. Hasty is also coming back from injury. The running back cupboard is looking pretty bare, and what is going to be available is banged up.
That's bad news for a 49ers team that relied on the running game to turn their season around and rattle off three straight wins. Given the injuries it is likely too much to ask for the running game to carry them in this one. Especially given the Bengals will likely be ready and waiting for the 49ers to run the ball, defending with loaded boxes much like the Seahawks and Vikings were in previous weeks.
The 49ers will likely need Jimmy G to throw more then 30 passes in this one, and historically things have not gone well when that happens. That means the 49ers really need to get a good Jimmy performance. He needs to be efficient and get the ball in the hands of the playmakers and let them make plays. Nothing new there. But he also needs to avoid those 3-5 dangerous throws a game he typically makes when asked to throw a lot. And they may also need him to deliver some big time throws on the money downfield.
If Jimmy G struggles I fear the 49ers offense will struggle to get much going in this one.
Jimmy G needs to step up and carve up the Bengals LB's. The Cincinnati Bengals rank 29th in defensive DVOA on passes over the middle of the field. The strength of Jimmy's game is intermediate middle. Expect Jimmy G to operate more from under center in this game tailored more to Wilson's running strength.
Jeff Wilson needs to step up and have a career day. He's said to have his football legs under him and he needs to show up big time. Wilson is said to prefer to run downhill as opposed to running out of shotgun.
Kittle needs to step up the dirty work in the trenches if the 49ers want to run the ball, and then YAC it up off of play action. I expect to see more 5 DL fronts from the Bengals in an attempt to thwart the outside zone game, and force the 49ers to bang their heads against the wall of their run defense, D. J. Reader.
Tom Compton needs to step up his pass pro but that's probably unrealistic. Minimize his exposure. Brunskill will have his hands full of Reader. The strategy would seem to be lots of outside zone runs to force the big man to expend lots of energy in pursuit from sideline to sideline.
Defensively the pass rush needs to step up and make Burrows' day a living hell to protect a vulnerable secondary.
Special teams needs to step up and just not be a liability. Do your jobs!
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