Do You Hear What I Hear

A score, a score, add in four more. With a win as big as can be! Giving up a 2 day rest differential, no George Kittle, no Fred Warner, no Trent Williams, no Nick Bosa, no Brandon Aiyuk. No problem. Brock Purdy is playing some of his best football and it couldn't have come at a better time. With a chance to lock up the number 1 seed throughout the playoffs against the Seahawks this Saturday evening, the 49ers will regroup, heal up and see who is available. 

Defensively it was an atrocious performance, but they made the stop they needed to when they needed to do it. Saleh has no answers for 12 personnel. Pinnock is a liability in the run game and Gifford is a liability in the pass game. Back to the lab and figure it out. 

This 3-game stretch for the 49ers is their highest 3-game point total since 1994. I will continue to enjoy this team for what they are and not focus on what they aren't, and what they are is an offensive juggernaut the likes of which we haven't seen for 30 years! My congratulations to the 49ers organization for a 12-win season. They could've very easily gone in the tank after Bosa and Warner went down and no one would have faulted them. Really proud of this team.

Sunday Night Football Week 16: Bears vs 49ers

 Let the Sunday night special shine it's light on Purdy. Pressure-to-sack ratio (out of 32 QBs):

1. Brock Purdy 7.3%

6. Caleb Williams 11.7% Purdy has only been sacked seven times in his seven starts this season. That will need to continue tonight as the offensive line is playing at a high level. The offense hasn't punted since November. SF is averaging 34.4 points per game since Purdy returned from injury. Without Kittle the running game is going to take a hit. How much of a hit and how Shanahan adjusts is unknown but the numbers with Kittle vs. without were significant in the run game early in the season.

The 49ers defense is 8th in EPA per play-action. Caleb Williams has thrown a play action pass on 34.5% of his drop backs with an 83.5 PFF grade, 8th best among QBs. The 49ers limited the Colts' Jonathon Taylor to 46 yards and one TD Monday Night. If they can make the Bears one dimensional and operate upfront with a cage rush to keep Williams from getting outside, they should be able to limit their explosives. Williams has cut his sack rate from last year's 68 (#1) to 23 this year, thanks in large part to that running game.

Tackling improved significantly last week for the 49ers and that will need to carry over tonight. San Francisco has been very disciplined with respect to committing offensive penalties ranking them near the top. The Bears' defense has feasted on turnovers and Purdy must play mistake free football. Should be the loudest Levi's been all year with the #1 seed on the line. I like the 49ers to win this game handily, 41-24. Go Niners!

Bears RT Darnell Wright is en route to Santa Clara. He did not travel with the team Saturday because of an illness. Wright is questionable and his availability will be a game-time decision. Add WRs DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus to their Injury Report because of illnesses.

49ers inactives vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football:

RB Isaac Guerendo WR Jordan Watkins TE George Kittle DL Kevin Givens CB Renardo Green LB Curtis Robinson DL Robert Beal Jr.

5 Straight Home Games

To lift the Lombardi Trophy on February 8th at Levi's Staduim. Brock Purdy put on a masterclass throwing for 5 TD's and the first in franchise history to do so on Monday Night Football. Although he hasn't started enough games to be qualified, if he were, his 76.0 QBR on the season would rank first in the NFL. Brock Purdy’s TD% is 7.6% (2nd in the NFL). Matthew Stafford leads the league at 7.7%. No other QB is over 6.3%. He will lead this team to a Super Bowl.

Every coverage/defensive scheme has vulnerabilities… Can the QB identify them and find the solution within his play call - this is, has been, always will be the core concept of playing QB. Defensively for the 49ers they were able to stop the Colts running game and when it mattered most towards the end of the game, rookies Collins and West both got their first sacks of the season. Dee Winters heard, "Orlando" earlier in the game and when he heard it again, he was ready, picking off Old Man Rivers and taking it to the house for the final nail in the Colts coffin. The defense for the 49ers just earned valuable lessons on how a hall of fame quarterback can beat you with their mind. Rivers' performance just highlighted why arm strength is inferior to mind strength when evaluating quarterbacks.

The next test is the Chicago Bears and although Caleb Williams is the more talented quarterback, Brock Purdy is the BETTER quarterback and should lead this team to another victory Sunday Night. Until then, let's all enjoy this win together and dream what could be on the horizon for San Francisco!
 

MNF Week 15: 49ers vs Colts

 

The 49ers activated Yetur Gross-Matos from the Injured Reserve list for tonight’s game against the Colts. The pass rush just got better with Sam O also in the mix.

Colts' pass defense ranks since Week 8:

EPA per drop back: #18 Success Rate: #17 They're also ranked #22 in DVOA against TEs this season. Going to be difficult to run against them, but without Mooney Ward or Sauce Gardner, 49ers should have success through the air and that's how I expect Shanahan to attack them early and often. After some struggles against man coverage last season, Brock Purdy has been better this year (albeit in a smaller sample size). His 68% completion rate and 82.0 QBR rank 2nd and 4th in NFL among QBs with at least 5 starts this year and he has 9 TDs and 2 INTs against man. Colts have played man on 48% of drop backs, 9th highest rate in NFL.

The elephant in the defensive room tonight goes by Jonathan Taylor. He came into this week leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,443), rushing yards after contact (1,035), rushing TDs (16), and is second in YPC after contact (3.81), missed tackles forced (58), and rushes of 10+ yards (35). Veteran CB Eli Apple and LB Eric Kendricks have been activated from the practice squad. Kendricks will play the Sam LB with Bethune and Winters in their base 4-3. Couple that with Elliott returning and the run defense just leveled up.

Philip Rivers’ average depth of target last week was just 5.2 yards, and his time to throw was only 2.41 seconds. If averaged out over a season that would be the shortest distance/time among all starting QBs. Colts starting LT Raimann is out for this game. Luter Jr. will be starting over Green who is out with a neck injury. Luter is the better tackler. Eli Apple will likely take his place on special teams.

The 49ers have beaten the teams they should in their last four games. The next three will sharpen their iron as there has been some prattle among those regarding the quality of teams they've beaten. I suspect the team has heard the disrespect and makes a statement tonight beating the Colts 34-24! Go Niners go!!

49ers inactives vs. Colts in Week 16:

RB Isaac Guerendo WR Ricky Pearsall DL Robert Beal Jr. DL Kevin Givens LB Curtis Robinson CB Renardo Green CB Chase Lucas

Once, Twice, Three Times A Winner

And you're the #1 seed. Win 2 more and you're in the Super Bowl. Any believers out there?

Titan-ic

Coming off their bye the 49ers handle their business and sink the Titans 37-24. Brock Purdy is back to being the quarterback we signed to a $265M dollar contract:

Adjusted EPA per Play, Weeks 1-15:

1. Jordan Love, 0.292 2. Josh Allen, 0.280 3. Brock Purdy, 0.273

That's plenty good enough to take them to the promised land in a year where there are no dominant teams. A slight improvement to the defense with the return of Bethune, Sam O and YGM could be all it takes with a little luck. Colton McKivitz on Brock Purdy having swag:

“We love having him as our quarterback and our leader. If he’s having fun, it means the offense is having fun, and the team is having fun. Keep dougie-ing and keep it rolling.”

Team Notes:

🔒Trent Williams’ 95.6 PFF grade from yesterday’s win over the Titans is the highest in his 15-year career.

🩼Spencer Burford ankle injury. Pretty thin behind him with the rookie Colby playing like limburger.

🎯The 49ers have a 95.8% chance to make the playoffs, per Football Outsiders. Best odds are to finish #6 (50%) and #5 (20%). They still have a 6.5% chance to finish as the #1 seed.

Game Day Week 14: Titans vs. 49ers

Welcome back to 49ers football! After a week off San Francisco faces one of the worst pre-snap motion defenses in the league (0.18 EPA), and good teams beat the ones they should. My key ingredient for a recipe to victory is don't turn the ball over. Do that and victory should be assured. Brock Purdy needs to continue to take the checkdowns and not hold the ball. Pearsall needs to find the formula to create that chemistry. Spencer Burford needs to be on his P's and Q's versus Simmons. Dee Winters has to tackle well behind Collins who'll be counted on to shut down the interior. I've got the 49ers winning this game 31-13. Go Niners!

 Titans' DVOA thru Week 13:

Total: #31 Offense: #30 Defense: #29

49ers inactives vs. Titans in Week 15:

RB Jordan James WR Jordan Watkins DE Sam Okuayinonu (ankle) DT Jordan Elliott (knee) DT Sebastian Valdez LB Tatum Bethune (ankle) LB Nick Martin (concussion) RB Christian McCaffrey is cleared to play.

NFC West Outlook

 

SF is one game back of both SEA and LA:

LA's next 2 games are against DET and SEA
SEA's next 2 games are against IND and LA
SEA beats LA and all of a sudden the 49ers have an opportunity week 18 to secure the best division record.

All while owning tie-breakers over both LA and SEA. 

These last 4 games mean everything for the 49ers. They are in control of their own destiny. I expect them to come out from this bye week focused and hungry.

True Grit

 CMC recently posted a shoutout to Upton Stout, highlighting him as a player who has stepped up and demonstrated great leadership this season. The camaraderie is strong, with Stout himself mentioning how much fun it is to "jell with everybody" and make plays with his teammates. This kind of internal praise from veteran leaders like CMC really speaks volumes about the positive team culture. I understand the feeling some may have after the losses of  Bosa and Warner, however you cannot underestimate the power of one of the tightest locker rooms in the league. Stay strong faithful, this team is destined for great things!