Colts' pass defense ranks since Week 8:
EPA per drop back: #18 Success Rate: #17 They're also ranked #22 in DVOA against TEs this season. Going to be difficult to run against them, but without Mooney Ward or Sauce Gardner, 49ers should have success through the air and that's how I expect Shanahan to attack them early and often. After some struggles against man coverage last season, Brock Purdy has been better this year (albeit in a smaller sample size). His 68% completion rate and 82.0 QBR rank 2nd and 4th in NFL among QBs with at least 5 starts this year and he has 9 TDs and 2 INTs against man. Colts have played man on 48% of drop backs, 9th highest rate in NFL.The elephant in the defensive room tonight goes by Jonathan Taylor. He came into this week leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,443), rushing yards after contact (1,035), rushing TDs (16), and is second in YPC after contact (3.81), missed tackles forced (58), and rushes of 10+ yards (35). Veteran CB Eli Apple and LB Eric Kendricks have been activated from the practice squad. Kendricks will play the Sam LB with Bethune and Winters in their base 4-3. Couple that with Elliott returning and the run defense just leveled up.
Philip Rivers’ average depth of target last week was just 5.2 yards, and his time to throw was only 2.41 seconds. If averaged out over a season that would be the shortest distance/time among all starting QBs. Colts starting LT Raimann is out for this game. Luter Jr. will be starting over Green who is out with a neck injury. Luter is the better tackler. Eli Apple will likely take his place on special teams.
The 49ers have beaten the teams they should in their last four games. The next three will sharpen their iron as there has been some prattle among those regarding the quality of teams they've beaten. I suspect the team has heard the disrespect and makes a statement tonight beating the Colts 34-24! Go Niners go!!
49ers inactives vs. Colts in Week 16:
RB Isaac Guerendo
WR Ricky Pearsall
DL Robert Beal Jr.
DL Kevin Givens
LB Curtis Robinson
CB Renardo Green
CB Chase Lucas
Load the box to stop the run and constrict the underneath passing lanes. Make Rivers beat them downfield. Should be a comfortable win so long as the defense plays at least decent.
ReplyDeleteI feel confident in saying there will be no "cage rush" in the defensive game plan.😂
DeleteDefensively, I think everyone’s on the same page. I’m putting five on the line, running with four linebackers and two defensive backs, with one linebacker shadowing Taylor. The plan is to clog the running and short passing lanes, forcing Rivers to beat us with the deep ball. If it doesn’t work, we can always fall back to the usual approach. I watched Rivers’ game—he’s old, slow, and doesn’t put much zip on the ball. I’m predicting sacks and interceptions for the Niners.
ReplyDeleteThe Colts will employ the running of Taylor and the short passing game to include slants and screens.
Lenoir might jump one of those and take it to the house for the children.ðŸ¤
DeleteUnder / Razor
DeleteDon't forget about Colts TE Tyler Warren. With the 9er D focused on stopping RB Taylor, Rivers will be looking for him.
I am thinking (oh boy) it's going to be short stuff, doesn't really matter who it is. Rivers is going to get his completions. I thought I saw someone who said his longest pass was 17 yards. Play the short game unless Rivers can prove he can go over the top. Adjust as needed.
DeleteColts: Run (#1 rush EPA in NFL) Stop the run (#1 in YPC allowed)
ReplyDeleteHOW THE 9ERS BEAT THE COLTS:
ReplyDelete* Limit the Colts' RB J. Taylor to less than 75 yards. Stack the box if necessary, but keep him out of the end zone and make the Colts one-dimensional.
* Crowd the LOS and Force Rivers to beat them with short passes. The longest pass Rivers threw against Seattle was 17 yards.
* Good field position from Skyy Moore could lead to a 9er TD.
* The 9er O-line needs to open running lanes for CMC and control the Colts DT Buckner. Give BP time to take advantage of injured Colts CB Sauce Gardner's and exploit the Colts poor pass defense.
* The 9er need to run the ball against a tough Colts defense, and not
become one-dimensional. That will give BP time to find his receivers, JJ, Kittle and CMC, early and often.
* With both teams trying to run the ball, it should be a low scoring game. I have the 9ers winning 20 to Colts 17
Big opportunity for Kendricks, James and Watkins tonight.
ReplyDeleteYard passing number for Rivers VS Seattle:
ReplyDelete* Rivers was 2 for 8 passing with an int. on throws of 10+ air yards. And he was 1 for 5 for 2 yards when he was pressured. * Of his 120 yards passing, he was 9 for 10 with 36 yards when throwing behind the LOS. He was 9 for 17 for 84 yards on all throws past the LOS.