Let the Sunday night special shine it's light on Purdy. Pressure-to-sack ratio (out of 32 QBs):
1. Brock Purdy 7.3%
6. Caleb Williams 11.7% Purdy has only been sacked seven times in his seven starts this season. That will need to continue tonight as the offensive line is playing at a high level. The offense hasn't punted since November. SF is averaging 34.4 points per game since Purdy returned from injury. Without Kittle the running game is going to take a hit. How much of a hit and how Shanahan adjusts is unknown but the numbers with Kittle vs. without were significant in the run game early in the season.The 49ers defense is 8th in EPA per play-action. Caleb Williams has thrown a play action pass on 34.5% of his drop backs with an 83.5 PFF grade, 8th best among QBs. The 49ers limited the Colts' Jonathon Taylor to 46 yards and one TD Monday Night. If they can make the Bears one dimensional and operate upfront with a cage rush to keep Williams from getting outside, they should be able to limit their explosives. Williams has cut his sack rate from last year's 68 (#1) to 23 this year, thanks in large part to that running game.
Tackling improved significantly last week for the 49ers and that will need to carry over tonight. San Francisco has been very disciplined with respect to committing offensive penalties ranking them near the top. The Bears' defense has feasted on turnovers and Purdy must play mistake free football. Should be the loudest Levi's been all year with the #1 seed on the line. I like the 49ers to win this game handily, 41-24. Go Niners!
Bears RT Darnell Wright is en route to Santa Clara. He did not travel with the team Saturday because of an illness. Wright is questionable and his availability will be a game-time decision. Add WRs DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus to their Injury Report because of illnesses.
I would expect a comfortable win.
ReplyDeleteRazor
ReplyDeleteYour assessment of the 9ers VS Bears is spot on! * If the 9ers don't turn the ball over and they stop the Bears RB's D'Andre Swift, the starter and rookie Kyle Monangai, his backup they'll win the game!
* Bears QB, Caleb Williams, will try to use the run game to set up play action passes and create big plays to WR's DL Moore and Luther Burden, if the 9er D over commits to stopping the run.
* I look for the 9ers O-line to open running lanes for CMC and give BP
time to find his receivers against Bears DE Montez Sweat, their sack leader, with some pressure from DT's Gervon Dexter and Grady Jarrett, despite the 9ers missing Kittle.
With both the Bears and 9ers trying to run the ball, I look for a lower final score. I have the 9ers winning 31 to the Bears 23
Razor
ReplyDeleteCan you confirm that Bears WR DJ Moore is out for the 9ers game?
The last I heard he was questionable for the Week 17 game, along with
WR Rome Odunze, out with a foot injury.
The running game - Niners you got to stop em...Niners you got to run the ball, yes without Kittle.
ReplyDeletePlay a clean game on offense and make Caleb Williams beat you through the air. That should be enough to win the game pretty comfortably.
ReplyDelete