Let the Sunday night special shine it's light on Purdy. Pressure-to-sack ratio (out of 32 QBs):
1. Brock Purdy 7.3%
6. Caleb Williams 11.7% Purdy has only been sacked seven times in his seven starts this season. That will need to continue tonight as the offensive line is playing at a high level. The offense hasn't punted since November. SF is averaging 34.4 points per game since Purdy returned from injury. Without Kittle the running game is going to take a hit. How much of a hit and how Shanahan adjusts is unknown but the numbers with Kittle vs. without were significant in the run game early in the season.The 49ers defense is 8th in EPA per play-action. Caleb Williams has thrown a play action pass on 34.5% of his drop backs with an 83.5 PFF grade, 8th best among QBs. The 49ers limited the Colts' Jonathon Taylor to 46 yards and one TD Monday Night. If they can make the Bears one dimensional and operate upfront with a cage rush to keep Williams from getting outside, they should be able to limit their explosives. Williams has cut his sack rate from last year's 68 (#1) to 23 this year, thanks in large part to that running game.
Tackling improved significantly last week for the 49ers and that will need to carry over tonight. San Francisco has been very disciplined with respect to committing offensive penalties ranking them near the top. The Bears' defense has feasted on turnovers and Purdy must play mistake free football. Should be the loudest Levi's been all year with the #1 seed on the line. I like the 49ers to win this game handily, 41-24. Go Niners!
Bears RT Darnell Wright is en route to Santa Clara. He did not travel with the team Saturday because of an illness. Wright is questionable and his availability will be a game-time decision. Add WRs DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus to their Injury Report because of illnesses.
49ers inactives vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football:
RB Isaac Guerendo
WR Jordan Watkins
TE George Kittle
DL Kevin Givens
CB Renardo Green
LB Curtis Robinson
DL Robert Beal Jr.
I would expect a comfortable win.
ReplyDeleteRazor
ReplyDeleteYour assessment of the 9ers VS Bears is spot on! * If the 9ers don't turn the ball over and they stop the Bears RB's D'Andre Swift, the starter and rookie Kyle Monangai, his backup they'll win the game!
* Bears QB, Caleb Williams, will try to use the run game to set up play action passes and create big plays to WR's DL Moore and Luther Burden, if the 9er D over commits to stopping the run.
* I look for the 9ers O-line to open running lanes for CMC and give BP
time to find his receivers against Bears DE Montez Sweat, their sack leader, with some pressure from DT's Gervon Dexter and Grady Jarrett, despite the 9ers missing Kittle.
With both the Bears and 9ers trying to run the ball, I look for a lower final score. I have the 9ers winning 31 to the Bears 23
Razor
ReplyDeleteCan you confirm that Bears WR DJ Moore is out for the 9ers game?
The last I heard he was questionable for the Week 17 game, along with
WR Rome Odunze, out with a foot injury.
I expect all players questionable due to illness to play. How long and to what extent they can be effective is tbd.
DeleteThe running game - Niners you got to stop em...Niners you got to run the ball, yes without Kittle.
ReplyDeletePlay a clean game on offense and make Caleb Williams beat you through the air. That should be enough to win the game pretty comfortably.
ReplyDeleteScooter
DeleteCaleb Williams ability to beat the 9ers thru the air, will be difficult with his #1 WR DJ Moore sick and WR Rome Odunze out with a foot injury. That leaves rookie WR Luther Burden to be Williams #1 WR.
A big part of why I say that's the path to victory. Plus I don't believe Williams is a guy that can play 60 minutes of consistently efficient and accurate passing.
DeleteThe two keys are #1 Rushing O. #2 Rushing D. If the 49ers can Avg better than 4 yards a carry and hold the bears to 4 yards or under a carry they will win.
ReplyDeleteRunning the ball well will obviously help things a lot, but I don't consider it essential to winning this week. Bears pass D isn't that good. So long as Purdy is dialled in and avoids turning it over I think they can beat them without an overly effective running game.
DeleteI think it’s really important to keep our defense off the field as much as possible, and running the ball effectively is the way to make that happen.
DeleteI'd normally agree, but they've shown multiple times this year they can stay on the field without a strong running game. So long as Purdy is dialled in I think they'll be fine regardless of whether the run game gets going.
DeleteFrom this point forward, the opponents will be much tougher compared to the last five games. I get that Purdy can slice through a defense before they even realize what’s happening. Anyhow the playoffs have begun. One game at a time.
DeleteI'm expecting a big receiving game for CMC today. Wouldn't surprise if he goes over 100 receiving yards.
ReplyDeleteThe last few wins have shown a good uptrend for the 49ers. The next two games beginning tonight will show if they are Superbowl ready.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's exactly what they can't do.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap. Is it going to be one of those Purdy nights
ReplyDeletePurdy you came right back that's how its done
ReplyDeleteSam O and Tonges. We have to prioritize those two contracts this offseason.
ReplyDeleteGood comeback from Purdy.
While I don't think they need a dominant running game to win this one, that drive sure showed how much easier it can make things!
ReplyDeleteAfter a poor start (INT & pick 6), BP throws a TD and runs for a TD!
ReplyDelete9er 14 Bears 7
All this and still almost five minutes to go in the first
ReplyDeleteNiners offense is red hot.
ReplyDeleteGot away with one there, but love a team that takes the chances they're given. Keep piling on the points lads
ReplyDeleteSaleh has got to build momentum off that last stop and make the adjustments. Let's get a turnover and finish strong!!
ReplyDeleteWhat a play, Purdy!
ReplyDeletePlease, someone wakeup the 49ers defense!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately I think this just is what the 49ers defense is at this point. Just have to hope they can make a couple of stops in key moments.
DeleteI don't know how much longer I can watch this D
ReplyDeleteI really believe all they need to do is hold them to a FG once
ReplyDeleteHard to watch geez
ReplyDeleteAssuming we score a td here, with the back and forth, we likely win by a fg. Just drunk and thinking about it.
ReplyDeleteWe need a stop here to match our stop.
ReplyDeleteApparently, Bethune does not know that stupidity never wins.
ReplyDeleteSurprisingly we haven’t been able to stop their passing game.
ReplyDeleteOne stop. Can the defense do it?
ReplyDeleteScooter,
DeleteI was just about to post the same thing. I hope they don't play too soft and give up 10 yards a completion
Let’s hope Chi scores fast and the offense gets the ball back with enough time to win the game.
DeleteYou beauty!
ReplyDeleteJust wow.
ReplyDeleteWhat a game!! I love this team!
ReplyDeleteWell, as excited as I am with the win, this game also showed how difficult it's going to be for this team to go all the way. The defense just isn't good. So they're going to need the offense to consistently put up a lot points and hope the defense can make just enough stops.
ReplyDelete" The defense just isn't good" that might be the under statement of the decade.
Delete🤣 I'm trying to be positive
DeleteThe magical season continues.... what a game! How I wish we had Bosa and Fred. But still proud of everyone on this team.
ReplyDeleteGreat exciting win if you like offense. Great cause for concern if you like defense. But a win is always better than a loss. Selah will have his work cut out for him in practice this week. This D is definitely not SB material at this point.
ReplyDeleteMy game ball goes to.......Austen Pleasants
ReplyDeleteWhy in the hell are they giving the most important game of the week a short week?
ReplyDeleteCouldn't tell you, but tbh it's probably good for the 49ers. Home game today and next week, so no travel, while Seattle have to fly home tonight and fly here next week.
DeleteAs long as Seattle also played today, it's an even deal for me, Coach. The 49ers defense can't have this type of game again going forward. We can't count on Purdy having 5 TDs.
ReplyDelete