Coming off their bye the 49ers handle their business and sink the Titans 37-24. Brock Purdy is back to being the quarterback we signed to a $265M dollar contract:
Adjusted EPA per Play, Weeks 1-15:
1. Jordan Love, 0.292 2. Josh Allen, 0.280 3. Brock Purdy, 0.273That's plenty good enough to take them to the promised land in a year where there are no dominant teams. A slight improvement to the defense with the return of Bethune, Sam O and YGM could be all it takes with a little luck. Colton McKivitz on Brock Purdy having swag:
“We love having him as our quarterback and our leader. If he’s having fun, it means the offense is having fun, and the team is having fun. Keep dougie-ing and keep it rolling.”Team Notes:
🔒Trent Williams’ 95.6 PFF grade from yesterday’s win over the Titans is the highest in his 15-year career.
🩼Spencer Burford ankle injury. Pretty thin behind him with the rookie Colby playing like limburger.
🎯The 49ers have a 95.8% chance to make the playoffs, per Football Outsiders. Best odds are to finish #6 (50%) and #5 (20%). They still have a 6.5% chance to finish as the #1 seed.
League Passing vs Cover 2 Per NextGenStats:
ReplyDelete29 TD, 47 INTs
149 Sacks (6.7% Rate)
-0.09 EPA/DB
I love what Purdy has done over the last 4 games. But, my objective side tells me that the Cardinals, Carolina, Cleveland, and Tennessee teams have a combined record of 15 wins and 41 loses. I'll get a much better guage on Purdy and the entire team after the Bears and Seahawks games. The Indiana game should favor the 49ers with Jones out. The last good team the 49ers played was the Rams and that one didn't turn out well. The next few games will shed a better light on where the 49ers stand against the stronger teams down the stretch run.
ReplyDeleteFunny to think it was only a couple of weeks ago that the resident idiot of our blog and his band of Merry Cohn-heads were saying Brock shouldn't have replaced Jones.
ReplyDelete😂Merry Cohn-heads
DeletePFF has the 49ers with 11 missed tackles on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteNo matter what happens Thursday the Niners will move up to the fifth seed. A Hawk win Thursday will put the Niners destiny in the Niners hands.
ReplyDeleteBoyer should receive a raise after Shanahan's extension:
ReplyDeleteNiners are 7 PPG better on special teams then last year.
Actually touches on something I was going to say. Basically, what's the big differences between 2025 vs 2024? Because the defense isn't really any better based on general defensive statistics, and in some categories worse. The offense is gaining less yards per game than last season. But the record is miles better.
DeleteI think these key stats tell the story:
- RZ scoring up from 57% to 63%
- RZ scoring of opponents down from 68% to 57%
- FG % up from 77% to 94%
- FG % of opponents down from 94% to 65%
- Opponent net yards per punt down from 44.1 yards to 39.2 yards.
Both seasons have had a lot of tight games. Difference this year is they have improved significantly in categories that impact tight games - converting more drives into points and more scoring opportunities into TDs, while seeing more opponents drives ending in FG attempts which they have benefited from a lot of misses.
Also return game has given them better field position.
When's the last time a team avoided kicking to our returner? I'm guessing Ted Ginn Jr.
DeleteNiners run defense splits:
ReplyDeletewith Mykel Williams ON the field
- 3.99 yards per carry allowed
- 45.2% success rate allowed
with Mykel Williams OFF the field
- 4.58 yards per carry allowed
- 51.3% success rate allowed
A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS FROM WEEK 15:
ReplyDelete* BP and the 9er receivers / offense is rounding into playoff form.
Pearsall looks to be back and and I'm warming to the Idea of the 9ers paying to keep Jennings. NOT the $20 Mil he demanded, but a raise with some of the money saved from Aiyuk,.
* For a KS team that identifies as a run first offense and with CMC, an all pro RB, 73 yards rushing on 22 carries, seems to be too low? IMHO, the 9er O-line needs to improve on opening holes for the RB's! It may take a player from the draft and possibly a FA to improve?
THE 9ERS NUMBER ONE 9ER NEED, IS A PASS RUSH.
* The Titan game showed AGAIN, the inability of the 9er D to put pressure on the opponents QB! As 9er fans, we're left hoping the return of Sam O and YGM will alleviate the pain. If not, it will need to
be addressed in the draft.
* TACKLING: Tony Pollard, the Titans RB, had 104 rushing yards on 14 carries and a TD. Tyjae Spears added 34 more yards on 3 carries.
This is a problem Saleh and the 9er D need to address if they want to compete against the Colts, Bears and Seattle. * If anyone can make chicken salad out of chicken $#(t, it's Saleh.
I'll be surprised if they resign Jennings.
ReplyDeleteYea, me too! But imo, his play has been good enough to consider it.
DeleteFairly good injury news from 49ers:
ReplyDelete* Pearsall: Aggravated his knee issue; team not sure when he’ll practice this week
* Burford: Checked out “pretty good” w/ knee/ankle issues😌
* J Elliott: Knee irritation, should practice this week🏃♂️➡️🛑
* N Martin: remains in the concussion protocol
Dametrious Crownover, OT, Texas A&M 6066, 335 pounds, 35 1/2" arms, 85 1/2" wing. Former TE.
ReplyDeletePossibly the most important game of the regular season for the 9ers will be played week 16, on Thurs 18th, and the 9ers won't be playing!
ReplyDeleteThe Rams will play Seattle at Seattle, for the #1 seed in the playoffs. If, as we all hope, Seattle wins, the 9ers will play them for the top spot the following Sun. Jan 4th. The Rams are favored by 1 to 1.5 points, with the total (Over/Under) around 44.5 points,
So who do you think wins on Thursday, the Rams or Seattle?
Seahawks will win if they don't turn the ball over.
DeleteRazor
ReplyDeleteI agree. I think home field gives Seattle the win. And it gives the 9ers a chance (week 18), for the # 1 seed in the playoffs.
If the Rams win they likely go to the SB with that #1 seed. If not things get very interesting to say the least.
ReplyDeleteTop 50 Big Board: December Edition
ReplyDelete1. IND QB Fernando Mendoza
2. ND RB Jeremiyah Love
3. OSU LB Sonny Styles
4. ORE QB Dante Moore
5. OSU LB Arvell Reese
6. OSU S Caleb Downs
7. MIA ED Rueben Bain Jr.
8. ASU WR Jordyn Tyson
9. OSU WR Carnell Tate
10. LSU CB Mansoor Delane
11. USC WR Makai Lemon
12. TEN CB Jermod McCoy
13. PSU OL Olaivavega Ioane
14. CLEM IDL Peter Woods
15. UTAH OT Spencer Fano
16. MIA OT Francis Mauigoa
17. ORE TE Kenyon Sadiq
18. TA&M WR KC Concepcion
19. UTAH OT Caleb Lomu
20. AUB ED Keldric Faulk
21. UF DL Caleb Banks
22. TTU ED David Bailey
23. CLEM CB Avieon Terrell
24. OSU DL Kayden McDonald
25. ORE IOL Emmanuel Pregnon
26. TOL S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
27. UW WR Denzel Boston
28. UGA LB CJ Allen
29. ORE S Dillon Thieneman
30. MSST CB Kelley Jones
31. ALA QB Ty Simpson
32. TEX OT Trevor Goosby
33. CLEM OT Blake Miller
34. SDSU CB Chris Johnson
35. ASU CB Keith Abney II
36. CLEM ED TJ Parker
37. UGA DL Christen Miller
38. TTU IDL Lee Hunter
39. UCF ED Malachi Lawrence
40. ORE IDL A’Mauri Washington
41. TENN WR Chris Brazzell II
42. TA&M IOL Chase Bisontis
43. TA&M ED Cashius Howell
44. ALA OL Kadyn Proctor
45. UGA OT Monroe Freeling
46. CIN LB Jake Golday
47. LSU S AJ Haulcy
48. MIZ LB Josiah Trotter
49. OSU OL Austin Siereveld
50. ALA WR Germie Bernard
DL Caleb Banks officially announces that he’s declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft.
ReplyDeleteAhmad Moten, iDL, Miami 6-3 325lbs., quick get-off, explosive through the whistle. Had a lot of run stop/pressures.
ReplyDeleteDevin Moore, CB, Florida phenomenal length at 6’3, very good athlete with elite recovery speed and fluidity, and apparent ball skills. Looks like a riser.
ReplyDeleteIsaiah World, LT, OR is 6-8, 318 and he's my top OT Round 2/3:
ReplyDelete🦆45 starts between Nevada & Oregon
🦆Freak wingspan; rushers running the arc are ☠️
🦆Better knee bend &🦶than expected
🦆Picks up stunts & blitzers
Hopefully Seattle's preparation this week has been centered on shutting down an O that uses 3 TEs at least 75% of the time. With Adam's out the Rams will go 3 TEs the vast majority of the time. There is plenty of film available especially the 2nd Rams 9ers game. Go Seahawks.
ReplyDeleteCoach,
DeleteIf Darnold can't shake his personal nemesis of shrinking in a big game, Rams wins by 10+ points.
Niners are currently second in the NFL in 3rd down conversation rate at 49.2%. The highest they've finished in a season under Kyle Shanahan is 47.5% (4th overall in 2023). They’ve finished in the top nine in 3rd down conversions every year since 2022.
ReplyDeleteThe Brock Purdy factor.
DeleteThis year Mac Jones did well on 3rd down too.
That's the factor that will take us to the SB.
DeleteRueben Bain Jr. reportedly is going to measure with sub 31” arms. Since 1999, here is the list of EDGE defenders with arms 31" or shorter who've had a double digit sack season or made a Pro Bowl:
ReplyDeleteYou were touting R. Bain a month or so ago. Are you still high on him now after his short arms measurement?
DeleteIf short arms drop him to the 20s, it's good news for the 49ers.
DeleteHe'll probably need to move inside but yeah I still got the love for him.
DeleteAkheem Mesidor DL/EDGE Miami is a 3rd Rounder I love.
ReplyDeleteMatthew Judon released, should we sign him?
ReplyDeleteNormally I would say no due to scheme fit.
DeleteBut for these three games and the playoffs, I would say YES. YGM can't seem to get on the field and Sam O is also not 100%.
He's got 0 sacks this year. Not sure he's an upgrade at this point of his career.
DeleteLooks washed to me.
DeleteI know everyone is looking at the draft, myself I prefer looking at what Jones might bring to the team. Jones is worth a top 10 pick and a third rounder in the 2027 draft. Now that team can't be dysfunctional such as the Jets and the Raiders. There are a few teams out there with enough talent and only needs a QB to get them over the hump, Dolphins? Steelers? Texans? others?
ReplyDeleteJones is way better than any number one draft pick. He is young, talented, experienced, and just got educated in the art of football (KS).
Niners have a hell of a deal with Jones, it's going to take something extraordinary to pry him loose from the Niners.
I think he's worth more to Shanahan for another year and a 3rd Round comp pick than anything less than a 1st Round pick in '26.
DeleteGot to be a top 10 pick or no deal.
DeletePurdy has a PERFECT 100 adjusted EPA rating 👀🤯🔥
ReplyDeleteAdjusted for pass protection, receiver drops, dropped INT, fumbles, and interception returns, giving credit for expected yards after the catch only, and accounting for defenses faced.
Raiders are releasing Leki Fotu.
ReplyDeleteChase Roberts, WR, BYU Day 3 Sleeper:
ReplyDelete🔹16+ Yards Per Catch
🔹26% slot snap share; 74% out-wide
🔹Prototype X-WR size at 6’4, 210
🔹75%+ on contested catches
Romello Height, DPR, Texas Tech 6-3, 240
ReplyDeleteFirst step quickness, natural bend, toolbox of pass rush moves: spin, jab step, cross-chop. 9 sacks entering the CFP. Rare coverage ability on the same level as his pass rush ability. Big program experience. (Auburn, USC, GA Tech, TT)
Domonique Orange, NT, Iowa St:
ReplyDelete🍊6-4, 325 lbs
🍊650 squat
🍊450 bench
🍊34 inch vert
2023-2025, ”Big Citrus” had 945 A-Gap snaps, 233 B-Gap, 123 over the OT, 50 outside OT, 5 off ball.
EDGE Damon Wilson II, Edge, Missouri (Rd 1-2):
ReplyDelete+ Freakish athleticism
+ Bend at the top of his arc
+ High motor in pursuit
+ Hand activity and pass-rushing IQ
+ Length
+ First-step acceleration
+ 9 sacks in 2025
- One-year starter
- Anchor vs. run
Big game tonight. This one may come down to whether Sam Darnold can conjure up the mental toughness to win against a very competitive top opponent.
ReplyDeleteRams 27, Seattle 16 tonight.
Justin Joly, TE, NC St. late 3rd/4th Round gem.
ReplyDeleteThe Rams vs 'Hawks game looks like a wrap.
ReplyDeleteMaybe not
DeleteI never thought I would say this. But let's go Seattle.
ReplyDeleteCould be worst - lets go Rams.
DeleteWTG Hawks
ReplyDeleteI apologize to Sam Darnold for earlier saying that he shrinks in big games. So glad I whiffed big time.
ReplyDeleteThe 49ers control their own destiny!!
ReplyDeleteCan't ask for anything better than that.
DeleteYes, sir.
ReplyDeleteNGL. I thought the 'Hawks were done and dusted.
ReplyDeleteKudos to Darnold....great comeback! Did us a huge favor....if we win out (big IF), we are NFC's #1 seed. Surreal to even think about that!
Brian Parker II, OL, Duke (6-5, 305):
ReplyDelete🔹26 starts @ RT; 7 starts @ LT
🔹Recruited as a Center (My #1)
🔹2nd Team ACC; 3rd Team All-American
🔹Moves well; good feet/hips
🔹Strong upper body & punch
🔹Mirrors well; Nasty streak in run game
The stats are crazy for this game. The Rams had huge yardage numbers and time of possession and the Hawks had 3 turnovers. I just don’t know what to make of this game. Unfortunately I was not able to watch it.
ReplyDeleteYeah strange game. The Hawks had a Special Teams TD and the Rams missed a FG. That kinda evened out the stats.
DeleteIt's the same sort of weirdness that characterised the 49ers win over the Rams. They just made some bad errors in key moments that the opposition took advantage of. If they clean up their errors they'll win the NFC, but if they don't it's an opportunity the 49ers could take.
DeleteDarnold's OT pass to Kupp along the sideline was a thing of beauty. Then he followed that with a laser bulls-eye pass to Ngiba for the TD.
ReplyDeleteSOMEONE HAS A PROBLEM:
ReplyDelete* Brandon Aiyuk posts video of driving his car at high rate of speed.
It's one thing to drive a car 100 miles per hour. It's another thing to do it in a 40 mph zone. t's another thing to videotape the incident.
And it's another thing to post that video on social media. Exiled 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk checked all of those boxes on Saturday. Here’s the story, from Alex Simon of SFGate.com.
* On Tasman Drive near Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Aiyuk was driving 104 mph in a 40 mph zone. The video shows him driving as fast at 111 mph.
https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/brandon-aiyuk-posts-video-driving-140822551.html