By Scooter_McG
Note: As I have done with the 49ers free agent additions, I will be doing a series of articles examining how the 49ers 2021 draft picks fit the team. Here I will start with Trey Lance, and from there I will do three other articles over the coming week or so examining the OL additions, the RB additions and the DB additions.
Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers starting QB since the last five
games of the 2017 season, has an impressive record of 22 wins and just 8 losses
with the 49ers during the regular season, as well as a 2-1 record in the
post-season. When he plays, the 49ers have found success. However, he has also missed
23 games combined in 2018 and 2020. During those two injury ravaged seasons,
the 49ers managed just ten total wins (four of which came in games Jimmy G
started). Without Jimmy G, the 49ers record since 2017 is a staggeringly bad 7
wins and 27 losses.
It was no surprise then that after the 2020 season Lynch and
Shanahan made it clear during their end of season press conference that upgrading
the QB room was a priority, to insulate the team from injury. What was unclear
at the time was whether this meant the team was looking to find a replacement
for Jimmy G, or whether they were looking for a viable backup in case of another
injury.
You don't win in the NFL without being willing to take some big risks, and the 49ers front office ultimately decided they needed to
make the bold move to find their long term franchise QB, and traded up to the #3
overall pick a little over a month before the draft. Lynch and Shanahan have
indicated the primary reason for this was Jimmy’s injuries, however, you don’t make
the move up to number 3 for a QB just because of injury. Another factor comes
down to the talent of the player - while Jimmy G has shown himself to be a good
and capable starting QB the team can win with when healthy, nobody would
confuse him with a great or elite QB. He isn’t one of the “five or so guys”
that Kyle Shanahan has referred to a number of times that will make your team a
contender year after year. The move up to #3 is about trying to find one of
those elite guys.
The trade up led to a month of intense speculation as to who
the 49ers would take at #3. Anyone that has been following my articles since
the 49ers made the trade up will know Trey Lance is the player I believed the
team was targeting all along, and I have gone over why I thought he would be
the pick and how he fits a few times over the past month.
Rather than rehash the points I have made previously, to get
some in-depth insight as to why I think Lance fits, I recommend going back to
my articles from March 31 – “Who will it be at 3” (https://inspired49ers.blogspot.com/2021/03/who-will-it-be-at-3.html)
and April 7 – “The evolution of Shanahan’s offense and how it may
impact the 49ers decision at #3” (https://inspired49ers.blogspot.com/2021/04/the-evolution-of-shanahans-offense-and.html).
Needless to say, the answer to the question at the end of
the second article is they moved up to grab a guy Kyle believes will allow him
to do anything he wants on offense. He went and got his “biggest, strongest,
fastest and best pocket QB” – the guy that can unleash Shanahan’s offense from
within the pocket as well as outside the pocket, and make teams play 11-on-11.
Lance, in my opinion, has the most upside of any of the QBs
in the 2021 NFL draft. When I was comparing the QBs in the draft to exemplar pro
comparisons, I likened Lance to Steve McNair, another small school QB that was
chosen #3 overall. McNair was an outrageously tough and talented player, but
played at a time where there was a stigma against the athletic QB, and QBs
weren’t as protected as they currently are. As a result, McNair played most of
his career banged up in some way, shape or form, but despite the injuries he missed
very few games and continued to play at a very high level. And I actually
believe Lance is more talented. Lance will allow Shanahan to get as creative as
he wants, and evolve his offense as he sees fit to take advantage of emerging trends
in the NFL.
And as has been outlined at length by the media over the
past few weeks, Lance is not only athletically gifted and comfortable in the
pocket, he is also extremely intelligent. According to Adam Schefter, Lance's
psychological tests for the 49ers were "off the charts", and the
49ers considered him the smartest QB in this draft class. Shanahan elaborated
in the post pick press conference saying Lance was "off the charts"
on how he broke down film, communicated verbiage and broke down the minutiae. He
also said "he's always going to be a threat at any time. Once we had time
to connect with him, we fell in love with him. He checked every single
box". He was the guy that while watching film received the most pluses,
according to Kyle, and Shanahan also labelled him “like a CEO” in the way he
carries himself.
The 49ers have indicated numerous times they also plan on keeping Jimmy G, and having both Garoppolo and Lance will provide the team with a quality QB room that provides insulation against injury. Jimmy Garoppolo will no doubt enter the offseason as the starting QB. Both Shanahan and Lynch indicated that was the plan, and that they liked how having Jimmy allowed them to not rush Lance into the role. However, given his intelligence and background running a pro-style offense at NDSU, I don’t think it will take Lance long to be competing for the starting role, and I would be shocked if he isn’t starting by the end of the season.
I believe Shanny said Lance ended up with 160 positive check marks, a lot more than all the other applicants.
ReplyDeleteIt's apparent to me that this offense will be operating a little bit differently in 2021. More power, less finesse. The plan looks to be we will run you over. I highly doubt we'll be ranked 15th again running the ball. I fully expect to be in the top 5 rushing yards in 2021.
The important thing is that all of these guys are also capable of running Shanahan's outside zone. Kyle has been adding many wrinkles in recent years already, and uses a lot of inside zone and gap principles already, and this draft just continues his ability to evolve his offense to be able to run multiple concepts effectively.
DeleteMan I'd love to get my hands on that checklist.
DeleteScooter, I'm expecting them to have the most diverse and expanded running game the league has ever seen.
DeleteCubus, you and me both!
This is interesting because while there profiles would indicate them as being classic road graders they have actually been better at zone blocking.
DeleteThe biggest take away from me though in regards to Banks was how good of an anchoring pass protector he is. This should help Jimmy & Lance feel more comfortable in the pocket.
Scooter
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed reading your article....As usual!
While I did not think the 9ers would draft Lance,(I thought it would be Fields), I can see why they drafted him. IMO he
is the most likely QB to bust, but he also has the highest
ceiling. Setting behind JG to learn and with 9er coaching, will give him the best opportunity to succeed.
SO 9ER FANS, ARE YOU HAPPY CAMPERS NOW THAT DRAFTMAS FILLED OUR STOCKINGS WITH GIFTS? And 49Reasons, you can cancel that appointment with your shrink now...lol
Scooter / Razor: Question: Were either of you surprised the 9ers drafted OG Baron Banks in the 2nd Rd? To me he's
more a power gap fit, not a ZBS OG, so I have to agree with Razor, more power and less finesse in 2021.
Oh yea, I was very surprised. Banksy is a road grader, and I fully expect the 49ers to pave new roads through LA, Seattle and Arizona.
DeleteI salute you Mr Geep :-)
DeleteRobber
DeleteThank You
Hey guys, I haven't been avoiding this blog out of embarrassment, although I'd be lying of I told you guys I wasn't at least a little bit embarrassed for falling into the big trap. However, I'd be far more embarrassed if other prominent analysts who are better connected to the 49ers and cover them more closely than I do, didn't also misread every single thing related to ShanaLynch's preference for Trey Lance, as well as Jimmy G's current standing with the team.
DeleteThere was a full week during this process where I was 100% convinced that Mac Jones couldn't possibly be the pick, but unfortunately I developed a psychosis during the lead up to the draft, and that psychosis led to very poor judgement on my part. So I did want to apologize to you guys for some of my unhinged posts, and if I could, I'd personally apologize to Kyle and John for failing to give them their due respect.
No matter how this turns out, I will always give Kyle and John the benefit of doubt moving forward, because these guys clearly get it! I am just so impressed with the way these guys have grown, and their ability to own and learn from their past mistakes. I truly believe they have grown into the top GM/HC tandem in the NFL, and I expect the 49ers are going to be among the league's very best teams for the next decade at least, and with a little bit of luck, I suspect they will eventually win multiple Lombardi Trophies in the process.
I'll be back tomorrow to get involved with you guys to break down the draft class, UFDA's, and talk about the upcoming season which I couldn't be more excited about.
Cheers, and GO NINERS!
Thanks GEEP, yes, at first I was very surprised for a couple of reasons. His size was one, which like you made me think he was more a gap scheme guy, but also just that Shanahan actually took an OG that high.
DeleteAfter watching him play I now understand. He's big, but he actually moves well. He can make reach blocks. You probably don't want him having to hit moving targets out in space too often, but he can get to the second level. And he will allow the team to continue integrating other concepts, which Shanahan is already doing the past two years.
Scooter
DeleteYep, after finding some film and reading some scouting, reports, I can see KS thinking. But it still was a surprise he took an OG in the 2nd Rd. From what I see on his tape and his scouting reports he does a good job of pass protection which itself will
be a big plus. I can see the right side now being a hi-way for 9er RB's, especially helpful on short yardage and red zone. Santa KS was good to us!
LOOKING FORWARD TO WATCHING SOME FOOTBALL!
Yeah, that was the biggest surprise for me - that they actually spent high value draft capital on an OG. And I love it!
DeleteI'm much more inclined to believe that the Niners mgmt wants JG to succeed and have a good career wherever he goes. So they will prop up his Trade value and will let Lance play only if JG has an injury. Otherwise, they will be comfortable to let Lance sit all of 2021.
ReplyDeleteGreat write-up Kiwi :-P
ReplyDeleteAlso Trey Lance has also some shades of Don McNabb and Josh Allen and mental strength, intelligence and football geel of some HOF'ers.
In a short amount of time if everything gels what i truelly believe he will set the standard with Mahomes and Allen.
BTW here is a must-see link from Eisen and Beck good stuff ;-)
https://youtu.be/FSW0QTza0aA
Thanks for the link. Beck also had a really informative interview on KNBR on Fields and Lance.
DeleteThe one thing that stood out to me about the 2021 NFL draft!
ReplyDeletehow WRONG the talking heads and so called experts were. How they'll report any rumor they hear, as FACT.
1) JL and KS were at odds over which QB to draft....BS! They
both agreed Lance was their guy when they moved up to #3.
2) The 9er FO had alienated JG with the Lance pick and he wanted out. JG was the first to call Lance and welcome him
to the 9ers. So again BS...JG showed some class, while the talking heads showed their collective back sides.
The one rumor that turned out to be true, was Rodgers wanted out of GB and that the 9ers made GB an offer GB turned down. Apparently Rodgers thought he'd, in fact, been traded to the 9ers. But again, how much is fact and how much is more speculation by the so called experts?
I think 49er fans are making way more of this than is warranted. It happens every year. This time it happened to be a player the fans were terrified would be the pick, so got upset about the speculation, and now that it wasn't true are angry they were made to feel that way.
DeleteThe national media wasn't making things up. And yeah, their sources were wrong this time. To me it just shows how good the 49ers are at keeping secrets. We should be happy.
Seeing on Twitter how many of prominent local fan writers/ pod casters are trying to beat their chest and "out" the media with their sources is ridiculous. The media has a job to do. Sources aren't infallible. Yes, in this instance it was an echo chamber, but when you are hearing the same thing from multiple sources that have been reliable in the past, it is fair to believe it, or at least report it.
Agreed Scooter. I doubt anyone lost more sleep than I did, but I'm not mad. How does the saying go ... "don't hate the player, hate the game." I love the fact that the league can never presume to know what ShanaLynch are going to do in future drafts, and I love the fact that they look like one of the most disciplined organization in the league. It is almost impossible to keep a draft decision like that under lock and key for an entire month, so props to ShanaLynch for orchestrating one of the most riveting top 3 picks in draft history!
DeleteI am shocked that the Bears were able to come away with Justin Fields, my #2 QB and #9 player on my board.
And at the end of the day, Mac Jones ended up lasting till the 15th pick, exactly where he was supposed to go all along. Maybe he'll end up having success in NE, I certainly like the fit with McDaniel, but I will say this .... Mac Jones is NO Tom Brady! And Mac is always going to be compared to TB12, for as long as he's playing for NE! The odds that the Patriots hit on another elite QB who has the physique of a toll booth operator coming out, are slim to none, IMO.
One of the craziest draft build ups i ever experienced ,those reporters should eat crow especially Chris Simms and Adam Schefter.
ReplyDeleteBut ok we all have the covid blues hehe
In fairness to Simms. He never claimed to have sources only that it was his feeling that Kyle was moving up for Mac Jones based on what he thought Kyle liked in a qb. Mike Lombardi and the others all seemed to have false sources.
DeleteWas Kyle leak testing?
Its quite possible the Niners didn't draft a starter for the 2021 season. Banks has the easiest route to start but I would not count out Brunskill. Its noted that injuries can change all that.
ReplyDeleteEven if none of the guys start the season, I expect a few of them will see pretty significant action. RBs and DBs in particular have a tendency to get the depth guys some game.
DeleteI should of phrased it more like, due to the strength of the Niners the chances of any of the rookies starting the season is remote.
DeleteScooter / Razor
Delete1) The 9ers now have four QB's for the 2021 season, who gets cut? Josh Johnson or Josh Rosen?
2) Brunskill: Where does he play. swing OT, OG, or back up Center behind Mack? I believe he played his best ball when Joe Staley was hurt and Brunskill replaced him?
3) Even with the practice squad increasing from 10 to 12 players for the 2021 season, other NFL teams will be lurking like vulchers when the 9ers have to make roster cuts
GEEP:
Delete1) They actually have 5 - JG, Lance, Sudfeld, Rosen and Johnson. I think the 49ers keep the first three I listed, unless Rosen looks really good in camp. Rosen may also end up on the PS.
2) My expectation is Banks will start at RG sooner rather than later. This will mean Brunskill, McKivitz, Moore, Coleman and Skule will be battling out for the backup roles. With the expanded game day rosters I think the 49ers had 8 OL active on game days last season, but can't recall for sure. Assuming that is the case, I see Brunskill as being the 6th OL that can cover all five positions, but primarily OC/OG. McKivitz the 7th OL that can cover OG/OT, but will battle with Moore for that role. And Coleman will battle with both to be the swing tackle.
3) Oh for sure. Teams with lesser talent will always be looking to snap up the fringe guys from good teams. DJ Reed last year is a great example of how teams can lose good players as a result. We will no doubt be seeing a few guys the 49ers let go end up on other rosters and play roles for those teams.
Agree with Scooter. Rosen/Johnson out
DeleteBanksy starts day 1 at RG, no problem at all. I'd be very surprised if Coleman wasn't the swing OT. Moore is the future LG to replace Tomlinson. Skule is the odd man out.
That's what happens when your roster is as stacked as ours.
Scooter
DeleteI wasn't counting Lance, as I don't believe he is under contract yet. I should have made that clear.
Yea, as much as I love Brunskill; I'm gonna pencil in Banksy at RG. He's too good, and his nasty attitude is gonna rub off on McGlinchey. You watch!
ReplyDelete"...rub off on McGlinchey"
DeleteThat would be good.
I think Banks starts at RG, and I hope that the ND connection is something that can help him and McGlinchey form a bond. I've seen that kind of thing happen before.
DeleteBTW, look for McGlinchey to come into camp significantly heavier this season.
Also, I think Sermon is such a talented RB, and so good in pass protection, that, while he might not technically "start", he may end up with more snaps than either Mostert or Wilson.
Mostert is phenomenal in this system, but he's fragile, and I am not sure ShanaLynch are thrilled with the way he handled his contract situation last season. The 49ers had just recently extended his contract, and I think that Kyle's philosophy is .... prove to us that you can stay healthy, because up to this point you haven't, and we'll take of you financially, because we have a track record of rewarding our players, right? Don't make us look cheap, when you haven't proven yourself capable of staying on the field.
BTW guys, you are providing fantastic 49ERS coverage on this blog! Just thought I'd say that.
DeleteScooter, you are absolutely killing it, churning out a lot of good stuff! And congrats on getting the Trey Lance pick right. You did a better job of reading the tea leaves than I did this year, so kudos for that!
I say that even though your insistence that Mac Jones would be a viable option at 3 really set my hair on fire.
DeleteI take responsibility for my own madness, but you did hand me a match instead of a fire extinguisher ... am I right? Lol
That's OK though, because it all worked out in the end.
Thanks 49reasons. I genuinely felt (and still feel) Jones was a viable option and would have been good in this offense. So did Shanahan, btw, as he outlined in his interview with King. But thought Lance was better and that he fit more what Shanahan had been saying he wanted all along.
DeleteI wasn't posting stuff about Jones just to rile you - though how it unsettled people I did find pretty funny.
Nice article, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteBoth McNair and Lance chose to go to small schools because the bigger programs wanted them to play RB and LB, respectively. It used to be pretty common for black high schools QBs used to be asked to play other positions in college. Thankfully, there is much less of that now.
I am pretty confident that Kyle is not going to hurry a 21 year-old Lance into starting irrespective of how good he looks in practice. I see Jimmy G taking the overwhelming majority of the snaps this season unless he's injured.
Thanks Mood. I completely agree - I don't think they will try and rush Lance either. I may not have been clear on that in the article. But I genuinely think it won't be long before Lance is breathing down JG's neck for the starting gig. That's how much I believe in the guy's ability to learn and run an NFL offense.
DeleteNext Gen Stats rates the Niners draft as a top-5 in athleticism
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1388633668260753410
And not surprisingly, the Jets were 4th.
DeleteThat's one of the exciting things about the 49ers draft - while they went with size, they are big guys that can move. Lynch and Shanahan made a point of this in their draft recap presser - you want the biggest, strongest, fastest guys that also fit what they want to do offensively (which requires athletic guys).
Funnily enough, it was more the defensive guys they took that bring the athleticism rating down. Hufanga and Lenoir are just middling athletes, but smart, instinctive defenders.
Some good insight from Peter King on Shanahan's decision to take Lance, the trade up, and the Mac Jones rumours. All from an interview King had with Shanahan - not conjecture.
ReplyDeletehttps://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/05/03/aaron-rodgers-trade-nfl-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw
As suspected, Shanahan did indeed like Jones. But at 12. "I'd definitely take this guy at 12" was his thoughts after watching Jones. But after he watched Lance he liked Lance more ("I’m obsessed with the type of stuff we can do with this guy" he told Lynch in January after watching his film), and didn't believe he would be there at 12. Lance was the guy they moved up for all along. And the process of fact finding after the trade just made them feel even more comfortable with the decision.
Yup, no one makes that kind of trade without having a player targeted.
DeleteBiggest thing i guess where Shanny got sold on Trey is seeing on tape how he was beyond his years with his composure and making win plays of it.
ReplyDeleteRobert Griffin III is gunning for a job with the 49ers!
ReplyDeleteHe wants to mentor their QBOTF Lance!
Does anyone think this would be a GOOD IDEA?
Only if Shanny is on board with it, dont know on which way he could help cuz he didn't was the biggest professional.
ReplyDeleteI’m not exactly sure what RG3 can bring to the table in this area.
ReplyDeleteAs a rookie RGIII was making headlines, but after his injury he was never the same.
Perhaps he could provide some emotional support if Lance has a hard time with the speed and the higher level of defenses in the pros, but that’s something that the current OCord and Shanahan can provide.
The hiring of RG3 would be redundant in mho.