Who will it be at 3?

By Scooter_McG

Unless the 49ers throw a significant curveball, the team will be drafting their QBOTF at pick #3 in the 2021 draft. This year’s QB class is widely considered to be excellent, with up to five QBs considered to have potential to be drafted in the top 10. 

Trevor Lawrence is all but locked in at pick #1 to the Jaguars and Urban Meyer, and conventional wisdom suggests the Jets will be taking Zach Wilson at #2. While nothing is set in stone and surprises could happen, it currently seems more likely than not that the 49ers will have their choice out of Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. However, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of Wilson.

Today I am going to look at who I think the 49ers are targeting at #3.

Wherever Shanahan has coached he has looked for very specific traits in his QBs. Those traits have primarily been around accuracy, anticipation, ability to read defenses, identify matchups and go to the right progression quickly, decision making with the ball, being aggressive and decisive with the ball (yet not forcing it if it isn’t there, which goes back to the decision making), pocket movement skills and pocket awareness. Toughness and poise under pressure is also a must for a Shanahan QB. All traits that are based around playing from the pocket effectively.

In terms of physical traits, Dan Orlovsky (who played for Shanahan) gave some great insight when he outlined Kyle stresses two things in terms of athleticism – (1) a natural, fluid throwing motion and (2) upper body torque to be able throw accurately downfield without a strong, set base because you can't always set your feet in the NFL. Those are the two physical traits he stresses, and they again are based around playing from the pocket. In addition to the above, Shanahan likes to implement boot action and roll outs and his ideal QB thereby has the athleticism to not only move in the pocket but also out of the pocket and throw accurately down field on the move.

Now we all know that Shanahan has made comments in recent times that have alluded to his evaluation of QBs evolving and that the ability to extend plays and make plays off schedule are areas he sees a lot of value in. He has been very complementary of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, who are two of the best proponents of the young, athletic QB that can make any throw either stationary or on the move, and can pick you apart from the pocket or by extending plays when things break down.

While Shanahan’s evaluation of QBs may be evolving, it is important to understand the core of what he looks for is unlikely to have changed. He even said as much in the Monday press conference discussing the trade up to #3, where he laid out that if you were building the ideal QB they would be the “biggest, fastest, strongest and best QB from the pocket”. Being a great pocket QB is still the most important aspect for Shanahan. Having the athletic traits to move around, extend plays, and throw the ball 60+ yards downfield effortlessly are desirable additional traits.

Given the traits that Shanahan stresses in his QBs, and what he asks from his QBs, I find it hard to believe he will be enamoured by a QB that hasn’t consistently shown in college they can do what he will ask of them. Because of this I don’t believe Fields will be the 49ers pick. That’s not a knock against Fields – he is as gifted as any QB in the draft and may end up the guy. But when I watch Fields play I don’t see a guy that is consistently showcasing the skills that Shanahan will ask of him and it has a lot to do with the offense he played in. And in my eyes that makes him too big a projection for Shanahan to take this kind of risk on.

There has been a lot of talk in NFL circles the past few days that Mac Jones is the guy the 49ers traded up for. When I look at the traits that Shanahan has coveted in the past, and I look at Mac Jones, I see a guy that is in a similar mold to the QBs Shanahan has previously worked with. So I 100% can believe that he is a guy Shanahan really likes. However, I don’t believe he is the guy Shanahan really covets in this draft – I think there are two players that have a possibility of being available at #3 that offer skillsets that better match what Shanahan likes.

For mine, the 49ers trade up to #3 comes down to Wilson or Lance.

I think Wilson will have the edge, but is also the less likely to be available at #3. Wilson has shown the ability to work the pocket and the field vision to go through his progressions and find the right man with timing and accuracy. His passes have nice velocity and he can fit balls into tight windows. Wilson displays the easy arm talent to make any throw, accurately, from any platform and different arm angles. He’s aggressive with the ball, taking the shots that are there and he can get the ball out quickly and accurately without needing to set his feet. He also has the athleticism to run the boot action and rollouts effortlessly. He is also praised for his intelligence, recall and leadership qualities. In short, he has pretty much every trait Shanahan likes in a QB.

There are some concerns about the quality of the team around him relative to the competition and amount of pressure he faced in college, which are legitimate, but the same can pretty much be levelled at all of the top QBs in the draft. He dominated the level of competition he faced which is what you want to see.

As much as I think Wilson would be a great fit, he would be a great fit for the Jets for all the same reasons as their new OC is Shanahan disciple Mike LaFleur.

Trey Lance is an interesting case. He has far more limited experience than Wilson, only playing one season (plus one exhibition game last year). The level of competition he faced was by far the worst of the top 5 QBs, and he arguably played on a team that provided the greatest discrepancy in skill relative to their opponents. His receivers were often wide open and his offensive line was rarely stressed. He played in an offense where he wasn’t asked to pass the ball much. He also doesn’t have the same easy arm talent that Wilson displays, and his accuracy is far less consistent in part due to some mechanical issues he has.

Despite these negatives, when you look at what he does offer it becomes clear why, in my opinion, Shanahan will like him. The NDSU offense ran a lot of principles that are similar to what Shanahan employs, with zone schemes, lots of play action, lots of boot action, lots of pre-snap movement, and similar route combinations. At NDSU, unlike a lot of college QBs, Lance was tasked with running the offense pre-snap, including audibles and making adjustments to protections, rather than relying on the OC to instruct him as many college OCs do these days. There are a lot of reports that rave about Lance’s intelligence and command of the offense, diagnosing defenses and his understanding of how the offense is attacking a defense to get to the right play. His maturity, confidence, work ethic, desire and leadership are all considered to be very high level.

He also displays considerable poise and toughness as a QB. While he wasn’t pressured often, on the occasions he was under pressure he demonstrated his understanding of how to make subtle movements in the pocket to avoid pressure as well as a willingness to step up into the face of pressure and take a hit to deliver the ball. In terms of decision-making, Lance does a good job of avoiding putting the ball in harms way (only 1 INT in his college career) yet displayed a willingness to be aggressive and push the ball down the field with more than 16% of his passes (52 of 309 passes) going 20+ air yards, resulting in 13 TDs and his lone INT.

As a pocket passer, what he showed in 2019 was very advanced for a RS Freshman that was only 19 years old. The level of competition no doubt helped, but it is nevertheless impressive.

In addition to his pocket skills, he has a big arm and can make all the throws. And he quite possibly could be the most athletic of the QBs in this draft. He is a naturally gifted runner that is both fast and strong, with enough mobility and strength to either avoid would be tackles or break them. While his running ability is unlikely to be something Shanahan focuses on, the threat of being able to run is no doubt something he sees as having the potential to open up things downfield for the boot action and roll outs.

My expectation is that, come draft day, Trey Lance will be the new 49ers QBOTF.