The arrogance meter is going off like a geiger counter near Fukushima. We've got reports from, Lombardi that, Shanny and Big Shanny run the organization. Followed by a report by, Patrick that there's a divide between the, Shanny's and the front office on who the 49ers will take at quarterback. The Shanny's want, Jones, while Lynch wants, Lance. If true, this should prove to be another interesting future article by, Peter King as to how this draft process actually played out.
Shanny's system is the star. It's quarterback friendly. Quarterback layups for RAC. Mac Jones would be successful in this offense. 77% completion rate in 2020, however 34% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage, 53% of his passing yards came after the catch, and only 11% of his passes involved leaving the pocket. That's why college completion percentage is the most overrated statistic of all time. The last quarterback to have similar numbers coming out was, Tua Tagovailoa. Remember, Nick Mullens is now 2nd all time in yards after, Mahomes and before, Luck. The one thing this league does not want to see is, Shanny married to an elite talent at the quarterback position. Trust me on that.
3 out of 5 of these top quarterbacks will fail according to historical precedence. It takes an aggressive move to give up the amount of assets the 49ers did to acquire the 3rd overall selection in the NFL draft. That begs the question as to why then go conservative with, Mac Jones? Arrogance. Jones has a game manager ceiling based off his physical skill set. You're betting his mind is on par with, Peyton Manning because that's what will ultimately define his career and not his physical attributes. Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Lance all have a chance to be great in this offense, surrounded by a loaded team and A+ coaching. Shanny missed out on Josh Allen, and then got to watch him carve up his prized defense. Passed on and got beat in the most important game of his career by, Mahomes, plus he passed on, Watson as well. His dad's only Super Bowl wins came by way of, Steve Young and John Elway. Not exactly your garden variety pocket passers.
The 49ers move to 3 suggests to me that they knew the Jets were not trading out, because their hearts were set on taking, Wilson. Pretty innocuous information to pass along from someone that owes you their career. So what's behind all this talk about how much Shanny loves Mac Jones? Let me take you back to this time last year:
Charlie Campbell of WalterFootball.com joined KNBR this week and said, according to his sources, the 49ers are enamored with Williams.
"I spoke with people high up with the 49ers at the Combine, and they were just gushing about Quinnen Williams," Campbell told Larry Krueger. "They felt Bosa was an excellent player, a bit of a safe pick, probably more of a position of need heading into free agency given how good DeForest Buckner was for the team last year, but they just have more emotion in the voice, more excitement for Quinnen Williams.
"They felt that his upside was just off-the-charts when you consider last year was really his first season of playing time in the SEC. To dominate it in the fashion that he did, and really, adding the weight to move inside, they just felt that the sky's the limit for what this guy could be.
"They just seem to think that Williams was more special as a player, had more upside, and really they liked the makeup of him, as well."
Campbell spoke with representatives from other teams too, who also heard from the 49ers that the team is high on Williams.
"I think that's the player that's kind of tugging at the heartstrings," Campbell adds.
Williams had dinner with 49ers general manager John Lynch and VP of player personnel Adam Peters last week after Alabama's pro day. The meal made headlines because the draft prospect, who was able to pick any restaurant, chose IHOP.
Lynch and Peters also met with Bosa last week and will bring in both he and Williams for official pre-draft visits in the coming weeks.
"You can't go wrong with Bosa or Williams," Campbell continued. "Either one is going to make them a much better team. I just think Williams is the one who kind of has their heart right now, and I think if the draft were today, that's the direction they would go."
Sound familiar?
Lance's pro day was scripted by coach Avery who took elements of the 49ers offense to showcase how he would look operating in it. He's a perfect fit for this system. He's got feet like a ballerina. Processes through progressions from one through four if given time. Poise in the face of pressure even though he's not old enough to rent a car. He's got a cathedral ceiling. If, Shanny actually studies his film, unlike he did with Mahomes, I feel like he'd come away liking Lance A Lot.
AND THE LONG AND THE SHORT OF IT IS....THIS is just
ReplyDeleteANOTHER WIND BAG PROMOTING HIS OPINION, NOTHING MORE, NOTHING LESS!
As Scooter said, "what fans believe is influenced by what they hear from sports writers. And sports writers get paid by how many fans subscribe to their opinions. Every one of them are giving second hand information, not all that different from two old women gossiping over the back yard fence.
But as fans, we love to listen and then form our opinions from what we hear and read....Remember, this is lying season, every one of these gas bags has an agenda called $$. But I'm not going to forget about trading up for Beathard, or drafting Mullens, or even a 9er WR KS drafted, but was a bust. We're all human, no one's perfect!
ME, I'm going to enjoy the ride and auppoet the QB's name that Goodell announces on draft night, because it's ShanaLynch that's making a career decision....NOT ME and as a 9er fan, that's what we do. Now lets play some football!
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI'm glad I don't have to make the decision, but if we're being honest, I'd rather make the decision under the circumstances this organization has set up for itself. Lawrence will be successful despite, Baalke, and the other successful quarterback out of the other four will be the one that plays under, Shanny. The other 3 will more than likely fail.
DeleteRAZOR
DeleteTHAT IS TRUE! That's why it's good to be a 9er fan! I believe the 9er FO showed their competence by all the FA's they signed. A team not only built to compete, but win, including the playoffs.
Now if they can hit the QB jackpot, 9er fans will believe they can walk on water! IF NOT...Well we all know who the "BUMS" ARE...LOL
Razor, that's a massive point that seems to be lost on some. Of all the top QBs that are going to be taken this year, which one will go to a better situation to be great than whoever the 49ers take? Not just because of Shanahan, but because the 49ers have the best supporting cast. The situation these guys go to is a huge factor in success.
DeleteJUST FOR REFERENCE: This year, The Huddle Report graded the mock drafts of 114 entrants. Here are the top five:
ReplyDeleteThe Huddle Report Mock Draft Rankings - Top Five
Analyst Score
1. Reginald Brooks - Fantasy Football 1on1 50
2. Jason Boris - Times News 50
3. Mike Mayock - NFL Network 49
4. Brian Philpot - The Football Hub 47
5. Brad Clark - NFL's Future 46
At least Bucky Brooks is smart ��
ReplyDeleteNice one razor. I too find it hard to believe the talk. The 49ers don't give this stuff away. And dissension among the ranks on who to choose? Maybe there is some debate, maybe there isn't, but I strongly doubt we would know about it.
ReplyDeleteOne thing that does irk me a little though is this belief that Jones isn't an elite prospect because he doesn't have elite physical traits. That his ceiling is lower than the other prospects as a result. Many of the best QBs of all time didn't have elite physical traits, including many modern QBs. You can be elite in different ways, and the very best to have done it did it through their intelligence and pocket passing skills.
So yes, if you take Jones you are betting on his intelligence and pocket abilities. But tbh, for any of these QBs to succeed the chances are it will be because of these skills - the physical traits will be secondary. Very rare is the QB that achieves greatness through physical gifts.
An argument I see against this is that in recent years the top QBs are all athletic, and the game has changed. I see it differently - what has changed is what colleges look for at QB. The reason the top guys coming out are better athletes than previously is because, at least in part, that's what is available. The pool of athletic QBs far outweighs non athletic ones these days. And yeah, athletic QBs can be good pocket passers too. That's part of what we are seeing in recent years - it is no longer an either/ or.
However, despite this, which QB holds the best college single season passing efficiency record? Jones does. Followed by Burrow, who is very similar to Jones from a pocket passing perspective but has a bit more running ability.
So yeah, I don't really get the bashing of Jones because he lacks elite physical traits. That's not his game, and that's ok. He can still very much be an elite player, like he was in college.
Sorry Scooter, but it sure sounds to me like you are trying to talk yourself into Mac Jones, because college completion % without context, is one of the most useless stats there is, IMO.
DeleteI'd be curious to know at what point did you say to yourself ... "boy, the 49ers sure do need to give up whatever it takes to move up for Mac Jones"?
That pick screems leftovers to me. My philosophy has always been ..... "if you aren't evolving in the sport of football, then you're falling behind." The great Bill Walsh sure understood this concept.
As great of a play caller as Kyle is, if he refuses to evolve, trust me when I tell you that teams are going to catch up to him.
I don't hate the idea of Mac Jones becoming the 49ers next QB. I simply find it to be an incredibly uninspiring choice. It really does feel a lot like going from Jimmy G, to Jimmy H.
During his press conference Monday, Kyle said that "you can't be afraid to take risks" in reference to going bold in order to move all of the way up to #3. I said to myself: "does Kyle really believe the definition of taking risks is trading away all of that draft capitol to draft a poor man's Matt Ryan? First of all, 2016 feels like a lifetime ago, and secondly, Kyle failed to win a Super Bowl even with Matt Ryan.
I'm sorry but I honestly don't respect taking the conservative approach when everything points to going big! It reminds me of the guy who Was brilliant, and a very hard worker, but never really reached his full potential in life because he was afraid to fail! FYI, at this stage of Kyle's career, he's in danger of being known as that guy. You know who I am talking about? There once was a time when people actually believed Jon Gruden was an elite head coach. Does anyone feel that way about him anymore? No. Not because he forgot how to coach .... he forgot to evolve!
Mark my words, at some point in the near future, Kyle's going to have to break out of his comfort zone, or the league is going to pass him by. At some point he's going to need to more than play-action,.with zone run concepts. At some point he's going to need to actually bootleg his QB, and at least add the threat of a QB run.
Taking the safe route doesn't lead to Canton Ohio!
Thanks, Scooter.
DeleteScooter
DeleteThat my good man, is An extremely valid point you just made! Without the intelligence factor, the QB is not
much different than a "JUGGS" machine with legs and arms. Taking a Batchelor and Masters degree in three years should turn the lights on and tell you something...Like who will Pass or Fail and WHO can assimilate Shanahan's offense. And also read defenses if / when, JG goes down!
Kyle's on the cusp of being that guy ... a great offensive mind who never trusted his ability to actually develop his own guy. Say what you will about Trey Lance but please don't tell me he isn't developmental gold. He's 20 years old for crying out loud. He was a man among boys in the FCS. A wonder boy who is advanced beyond his years, already fairly well versed in running a pro-style system. What in the world.is.scary about drafting and developing Trey Lance, given the perfect developmental situation in Santa Clara? Are you telling me developing Lance is too much of a risk for the great Kyle Shanahan, even though Kyle really doesn't even need to play him as a rookie because Jimmy actually needs Kyle as much as Kyle needs Jimmy? And oh, BTW, the Niners also have a veteran Center now, and have improved their OL. If this isn't a golden opportunity to develop the next great thing at QB, I honestly don't know when is. I almost get the feeling that Kyle is so leary of developing a slightly different style QB than what he is used to, that he'd probably pass on Mahomes and Watson again this year if they were sitting on the board at #3, and that's just not good enough, IMO.
Delete49reasons, I've been saying the same for ages. Not talking myself into anything - I have felt this way since we started talking QBs during last season. And I have been saying Jones was waaaay better than people give him credit for and that I prefer him over Fields (and have him pretty much on par with Lance) for months.
DeleteAll the arguments you make are the same ones I find completely asinine. Having elite athletic traits counts for little if they aren't good pocket QBs. And having elite athletic traits DOES NOT give a player a higher ceiling than one without, UNLESS they also have the ability to develop equal pocket skills (something, btw, that Shanahan has basically said a few times).
And therein lies part of the problem - because things like pocket skills are not measurable, people ignore them as part of the equation in what makes one prospect a "higher ceiling" guy than other. They just assume that since you can't measure it easily, all prospects are "equal" in terms of their potential to master these aspects, and so it is the physical skills that determine how high the player's ceiling is. It is complete and utter rubbish.
Intelligence matters. Pocket poise and movement matters. Throwing with anticipation matters. In fact, they matter WAY MORE than athleticism and arm strength. And Shanahan has consistently said this.
So yeah, when I say I have absolutely no problem with taking Jones at #3, know that I 100% mean it, and it is something I have been saying before the 49ers traded up. I still don't think they will take him, as personally I believe Lance has a very high ceiling on the mental side of the game and pocket skills as well, plus the athleticism. But Jones is further along in most of these areas and so is less of a projection than Lance.
Razor, Mac Jones was not an elite QB in college. Where do you ever get that impression? I heard you raving about Zach Wilson for months on end, even though he faced low level college competition. I never heard you refer to Jones as elite during the season.
DeleteIf he was, why would so many football junkies be arguing about his value leading up to the draft. Elite college QB's don't come around every season.
Of all teams, winning a College Championship quarterbacking for Alabama doesn't make a QB elite, and neither does being in the Heisman conversation. My gosh, QB A.J. McCarron won THREE straight National Championships with Alabama.
There are multiple NFL scouts who don't even have a first round grade on Jones. Bill Walsh would always steer clear of one year wonders like Jones, who's one season was surrounded by elite NFL talent everywhere you looked. Bill wouldn't touch Mac Jones with a ten foot pole.Steve Young sure doesn't seem to think too highly of him. Long time Niners fan and NFL analyst Matt Miller thinks drafting Jones is a horrible idea. He's not like warm on the idea, he thinks it would be a huge mistake.
Personally, I think you can find QB's comparable to Mac Jones in just about every draft, and you don't usually even need to spend a top 10 pick to get one. Not only that, he's a one year wonder. Never showed he could put together solid back to back seasons. Do you know what Bill Walsh thought about one year wonders? He wrote in his book that he always leary about those guys, especially near the top of the draft.
I just don't know what's happening here, and how Mac Jones has suddenly ascended and even entered the conversation, just because Kyle is "rumoured" to be high on him. You know who else Kyle was high on - CJ Beathard. Anyone who believes Kyle never even looked at or evaluated the 2017 QB class is sure hard pressed to explain why Kyle seat ed a QB in the 3rd round that year. If Kyle didn't spend time evaluating the most important position in his first draft as a UC, that's what I'd call dereliction of duty!As for Jones, I haven't heard one respectable scout or football junkie call Mac Jones an "elite" QB prospect. Not a single one, so please, stop referring to him as being an elite player in college. He's the 5th ranked prospect in this draft for a reason, and that's despite winning a National Championship.
I assume that wasn't aimed at razor, as you said, but actually my post. I assure you I have been talking up Jones for ages. It most definitely is not because he is now rumoured to be in play with the 3rd pick.
DeleteYes, there are multiple NFL "experts" that aren't super high on Jones. And then all of a sudden we start hearing that NFL teams are waaaay higher on him that scouts. Maybe its smoke, but its been building for montbs. Happens with guys every year - media isn't high on them... until they are because they start getting wind teams like the player.
Ooof, the AJ McCarron argument. Well, I guess since McCarron was nothing more than a backup NFL QB, Jones must be too. Never mind that Jones smashed whatever McCarron did in college. Smashed it. And I guess that means Fields will definitely be a bust, those OSU QBs are always rubbish. No doubt Lance will flame out after a couple of years like Wentz, right?
You can find QBs like Jones every draft, huh? Well, I guess we did have a guy that put up a similar year against the SEC last year. What pick did he go again? Oh that's right, #1 overall. He was a one year wonder too, wasn't he? Which other QBs just like Jones are we getting every year, pray tell? And what is it that makes them just like Jones?
The one year wonder argument is also fantastic. I guess Murray and Burrow were bad picks, yes? And then you argue for drafting Lance? Good grief. Is Wilson off the table too, or are you good with that one year wonder too? Just trying to work out which one year wonders you are good with - is it just the ones with a "high ceiling" (ahem, are athletic)?
I'm not ignoring Mac Jones "pocket skills", I'm saying it gets harder and harder to simply win from the pocket, because NFL defenses are evolving. Even Jimmy G. was at his best for.the Niners at the end of 2017, while he still had himself some sneaky mobility (pre knee reconstruction), and was able to win from the pocket AND get himself outside of the pocket when things begin to breakdown, making off schedule, extended plays.Patrick Mahomes has developed fantastic pocket skills, but that's not what makes him so darn good.Every single one of the ascending NFL QB's in 2020/2021 are mobile enough to extend plays, the game is changing. Who was the best rookie QB in 2020? Pretty sure it was Justin Herbert.
DeleteLook, I am not saying you can't have some success these days as a pure pocket passer, but unless you are Tom Brady, you are limited. Mathew Stafford is an elite pocket passer, how many playoff games has he won?
No, you don't have to have elite athleticism to be great these days, but you better be able to get outside the pocket, and pick up a first down with your.legs when you need to. Heck, Joe Montana was doing that in the 80's. Niners fans have seen Steve Young do it in the 90's. Like I said is a reason nobody is looking for the next Matt Ryan these days. Being efficient from the pocket is a prerequisite for success, but having that and some.decent mobility is a prerequisite for championship level football in 2021, IMO.
There is a reason that Trevor Lawrence is considered an elite prospect, and it's not just his ability to play from the pocket. There are 2 prospects who can do both at a high level, according to many scouts, so why pass on them and take the lower rated, one-demensional prospect, when you have a golden opportunity to actually develop a QB and let them sit a year? Makes ZERO sense to me, and most people I have talked to.
To me, that's like playing not to lose, instead of playing to win. When a once-in-a-generation opportunity presents itself, you go big or go fricken home!
The answer is, I am not giving up 2 extra firsts and a 3rd to draft a guy who has the lowest ceiling of the top 5 QB prospects. That's for darn sure. Kyle runs a QB friendly system for crying out loud. Why would he be afraid to try to develop an elite QB so that he can win 3 or 4 Super Bowls? Or are you really saying Mac Jones is the 3rd best QB prospect in this draft? I don't know, maybe you are? But it seems to me that Mac Jones is being projected to the Niners, not because he's the 3rd best prospect or has star potential. Just about everyone says "we'll, he's Kyle's type!"
DeleteFor my money, great offensive minds are pingeon holed into 1 "type" of QB, especially if that type is becoming a relic of the past. Bill Walsh was certainly more diverse than that with his QB's. The knock on Steve Young was that he was a better inner than passer and Bill said, "I'll fix that!"
I meant are NOT pigeon holed.
DeleteWalsh took Steve Young and turned him into a terrific pocket passer. Why? Because he felt it would help his WCO evolve. That's what football geniuses should be able to do.
There we go with the "lowest ceiling"/ "higher ceiling" again.
DeleteAnswer me this - if Jones moved like one of the other four, and had a howitzer of an arm, where would you rank him? For mine he'd be the clear #1. And once I came to that realisation in my own head, and realised that while he didn't have those elite physical traits they were still good enough, I also realised I was way too low on him.
Razor, absolutely the quality of the team has a direct bearing on the amount of success that a rookie QB might enjoy.
ReplyDeleteAnd for me Scooter, potentially the biggest dissapoinent is that I can see myself how Kyle can take his offense to the next level. Of he only had a QB who was efficient from the pocket, a strong arm to take advantage of those "explosives" when he needs them, and then some mobility to open things up a bit at the LOS and keep defenses guessing, Kyle truly can take his offense to the next level. Shouldn't that be the goal, especially given this enormous opportunity to do just that?
ReplyDeleteI just watched Matt Waldman break down Trey Lances game film last night. What am I missing Scooter? What is it that would convince an OC that Trey Lance can't continue to develop into something special like so many people believe he can? And Justin Fields has been neck and neck with Trevor Lawrence for 2 straight seasons. Are you telling me Fields doesn't have a chance to be great, especially if he sits for a year? I mean, I just cannot wrap my head around why anyone would settle for Mac Jones, with such an elite level QB class, especially if you don't have to throw them to the wolves as a rookie?
Is that what Shanahan wants? A guy that is just efficient from the pocket? I think he wants an elite pocket QB. Someone that can be a true extension of what he sees and thinks, with the ability to get the ball out on time, to the right guy, accurately, while also having the ability to move and throw in a muddy pocket. The ability to throw it 60+ yards or be a dangerous running threat is a nice bonus. And no, that is not just a sideways movement from JG.
DeleteI like Lance a lot. I think he already shows a lot of promise as a pocket passer and has the ability to develop into a very good pocket QB with the added benefit of athleticism. But he's not in the same tier as Jones right now in terms of accuracy, timing, anticipation and reading defenses. You ask why an OC wouldn't think Lance will develop into something special in this area - the answer is simple; very few do. Jones looks further along in this regard - in fact for a college QB I would say he was veey advanced - so it is less of a projection/ reach to think he can get there.
In the right system I think any of the top 5 guys has the ability to be very good/ elite. And yes, that includes Jones.
But why would Shanahan choose a QB that plays a very different style to what he wants to do? I mean, he CAN do it, but why would he WANT to? For mine, Wilson, Lance and Jones stand out as the likely options/ fits for Shanahan's offense.
Maybe there is just a lack of confidence in Kyle's ability to develop a QB prospect? Seems like that might be the case.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Is this your way of suggesting people like me are trying to justify such a selection on this basis? If so, utter hogswash. Just cognizant that mental processing, intelligence, anticipation, etc are all skills that some people have a natural gift for more than others, just like speed and strength. While you can train and improve those things, some guys will always have a natural talent advantage.
DeleteAnd those traits are extremely important for becoming an elite pocket QB, which is still the skillset that Shanahan
desires most from a QB. So when I see people talking about who has a higher ceiling I think it is ridiculous that it almost always comes back to the physical gifts.
Scooter the Alabama system should also be in consideration cuz it was more easy than NDS to run cuz of many RPO options.
ReplyDeleteHis accuracy was improved on his proday cuz his mechanics altered a bit.
On terms of reading defenses he is the clear leader of the bunch cuz he was processing pre snap reads on defense as a RS FRESHMAN every scouting site describes him as a filmjunkie with a great football IQ its logical cuz he called the protections also.
Das his dad played in the CFL as a S is also a help.
BTW Jones has the biggest pinpoint accuracy and excellent pocketpresence.
But i rate the offense of NDS higher cuz of more pro style concepts and that Lance had to do more things than Jones.
I really like Lance as a fit, as you will see from my previous article. However, don't discount what Jones was doing at Alabama - Sarkisian ran a lot of pro concepts as well and it is widely reported about just how well Jones understood and executed that offense. Plus he demonstrated excellent understanding of the defenses he was facing to get through his reads quickly.
DeleteBasically, I agree Lance had to do more pre-snap, but imo Jones demonstrated better reading of defenses (including better and more complex defenses in the SEC), post snap decision making, timing/ anticipation and accuracy.
Samuel Gold's YouTube scouting report of Mac Jones titled "No, the 49ers should NOT draft Mac Jones" is one of the better breakdowns I've seen or read. He really does a good job of encapsulating most of my issues with Mac Jones at #3, without tearing Mac down. In fact, he is very complimentary of Mac Jones throughout his video report.
DeleteAmong the positives are:
- his ability to make pre-snap reads
- his understanding of Alabama's scheme
- his pocket awareness, and ability to navigate the pocket, adjusting his throwing motion and body to avoid pressure while maintaining a clean base all while keeping his eyes downfield which allows him to stay in structure with his offense
- how his traits are a good fit for Kyle's offense
So what's the problem? The main problem he's identified with Mac Jones? How poorly he plays when under pressure, and how badly he struggles when things don't exactly go as planned, which we know happens all of the time at the NFL level. When things didn't go his way, and he could rely on the systematic approach of a given play, he panics, his reactions when defenders are near him, and how it alters his process is very concerning. At times he would even completely fall apart. He would get stuck on his innitial read, and when that wasn't open, he didn't seem to have any improvisational skills to make a play.
His conclusion after watching all of the tape, is that Mac Jones is 100% reliant on working within the structure of an offense. And guess what ... the advanced metrics bare this out. When he's working within a clean pocket, and his receivers are winning early (which brings me back to the absurd level of talent at Alabama, from the OL, to the WR's, and of course his safety valve, RB Najee Harris), Mac Jones tended to play very well and make things look easy. But when things begin to break down, he's a bit of a train wreck, making the bad outweigh the good.
The bad:
- his percentage of turnover worthy plays DOUBLED when he was under pressure, putting him in the bottom 25% of qualifying D1 QB's
-
So why then weren't his numbers a lot worse? The answer is obvious - Jaylen Waddle, Davonte Smith, Najee Harris, and Alabama's OL. Advanced metrics tell us that Jones was only under pressure on 19% of his dropbacks, that's the 2nd lowest of ANY QB in this draft class. Some will counter that LSU's Joe Burrow was also surrounded with elite talent, right? Well, Joe Burrow completed 3 times the number of what are called "tight window throws", than Jones (124-44). Oustide of pressure, Jones' mechanics are an issue. His throwing motion leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn't bring his hips through the throw, and he often throws with his weight on his back foot. This leads to poor deep passes. H often overthrows or under throws his receivers. We even saw this during his workouts over the last couple weeks, despite no defenders. He gets by with it on the short to intermediate passes, but that's at the college level and again, hi receivers won so often, he rarely had to fit the ball into tight windows. Add to these issues the fact that like Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones is not going to make many plays with his legs. He's not a QB who is going to expand Kyle's playbook by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, Kirk Cousins seems to be the most common "comp" for Mac Jones, and Cousins was a 4th round pick.
And finally, Samuel concludes his breakdown discussing how the position is changing. 15 years ago, Mac Jones' game manager skill set was potentially in line with potentially being a top 10 pick. But now that we see how the league is evolving at the position, it seems like Mac Jones is missing an essential ingredient to be successful. He doesn't improvise well, and he is obviously limited in terms of his mobility. Obviously there are successful QB's who aren't athletic, but that's not the way the league is trending.
Here is a link to his Mac Jones breakdown
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azz7L807zaw
Cool. I have seen some films very complimentary of him, others not. I think you exaggerate some of the negatives here, but they are concerns. Every QB has areas of concern.
DeleteAgain, I would be in favor of drafting Mac Jones at 12. I would even be in favor of Mac Jones at 10. My issue is with the idea of giving up all of those assets to draft the next Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr when there will potentially be franchise transforming QB prospects (Fields, Lance) who may or may not need a seasons worth of development, still on the board.
DeleteYou give up that much draft capitol to move up to #3, you better be swinging for the fences, rather than simply putting the ball in play and hoping to find a hole in the defense (I love me some baseball metaphors).
After 1 winning season in 4 years, it's time for Kyle Shanahan to pull an Andy Reid, and take these 49ers to the next level!
The old snap taker vs. playmaker argument.
DeleteI do hope I' not coming off as a jerk Scooter, because you seem like a great guy and I truly do respect your opinion. There is just something about drafting Mac Jones this year, especially after giving up all of those assets, that really rubs me the wrong way, but I certainly don't mean to take that out on you. I think I am just a little frustrated with what I perceive to be Kyle's stubbornness, and inflexibility. He's an absolutely brilliant X's and O's guy, but sometimes he seems too rigid for his own good. I am not trying to act like I know more about NFL quarterbacking than Kyle, but I am willing to lean towards the consensus. When lots of smarter guys than me (like Steve Young) believe Mac Jones is an underwhelming prospect, especially given the 49ers gave up all of those assets, it really bothers me.
DeleteI'd much rather Kyle was soo confident in his ability as a play caller and designer of offense, that he took the challenge of developing one of these hard working young physical phenoms, rather than being soo confident in his ability as a play caller that he is willing to buck the trend, and prove that he can win with a one-dimensional pocket passing QB with average arm talent, because that doesn't excite me one bit.
Ha, don't worry 49reasons, you are not coming off as a jerk. Just a passionate fan, which I love - keep it up!
DeletePersonally I don't think we need to worry about the Jones debate anyway - I really don't think he's the guy they traded up for. I feel pretty confident it is Lance. But I will say this - I don't think Jones gets drafted any later than #8 by the Panthers. Jones would be a great fit for Joe Brady's offense, and they had the opportunity to work with him at the Senior Bowl. Which, btw, leads a little more credence to the idea the 49ers felt they needed to move up for Jones, if he actually is their guy.
Exactly Razor. It seems to me that the answer is pretty well settled. The best QB's are the guys who can do it all.
DeleteYou know one thing I loved the most about Joe Montana? As great as he was operating from within the pocket, I always felt confident that he would make a play when things broke down, and could even scramble for a first down if he really had to.
Geesh, I sure hope your right, Scooter. And I agree with your take on Mac Jones likely not falling out of the top 10 (or top 8 even). I guess the big question, if the Niners do take Lance, does Mac Jones still go ahead of Justin Fields?
DeleteI think all 5 guys are drafted top 10. The order will depend on team preference and who trades up how far.
DeleteSee, I'm one of those who believe Justin Fields is probably the 2nd best QB prospect in this draft, certainly #3. I got a kick out of how angry Mr nice guy - Jeff Saturday - is with the talk about the question of Justin Fields' ability to go through progressions.
DeleteJeff Saturday (I am paraphrasing): "It's rediculous. Every college QB is taught to go to his primary target, and now we are going to criticize a guy who simply did what he was taught to do in college? Peyton Manning was taught to go to his primary receiver in college (Tennessee). He had to learn to go through his progressions as a pro. Peyton threw 20+ INT's in his first season (26 TD's, 28 INT's, 56% comp for Peyton as a rookie) learning to go through his progressions. Was he a bust?"
Yes, some of it has to do with natural processing ability, but a lot of it has do do with work ethic, and the ability to be taught. At this stage, I have no reason to believe that Mac Jones is going to end up being the superior processor over Fields or Lance, because I've seen them all do it. Some are asked to do it more than others. I am not saying that some guys aren't more naturally gifted at it than others, but I haven't seen anything that tells me Justin Fields can't do it, and as few of games as Mac Jones and Trey Lance have even played, I personally think it's mostly pure speculation at this stage.
DeleteAnd I'll also say this ... it's a lot easier to teach a QB to go through his progressions than it is to teach them arm talent and athleticism.
DeleteBased on the comments made on the blog about the QB's in the 2021 draft and how the "so called" experts influence our opinions of them...This article is not only relevant, but germane...At least I find it to be!
ReplyDeleteThe fallout on one ESPN announcer’s eyebrow-raising comments and a colleague’s criticism.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fallout-one-espn-announcer-eyebrow-170213114.html
Talk to 5 different Niner fans and you’ll hear uncomplimentary things about 5 different QB prospects. Whoever is picked is going be unpopular with a large swath of the fan base.
ReplyDeleteThe fallout from picking, Jones will be deeper than deep.
DeleteRazor
DeleteRight. That is until he wins a Super bowl. Then he'll be the second coming of Jesus Christ and Super man all rolled into one!
"IF" you're going to complain about the QB the 9er draft, you're saying KS is a fool and doesn't know what he wants in his QB, or how to evaluate one! So many arm chair experts that know more then KS. Where do they come from?
FACT: What the fans (so called experts), think and $5 will buy them a cup of coffee at Starbucks.....
Zierlein on, Trey Lance, “I think his ability to run the boot action stuff and the threat of him getting out on the edge is something that can really help the running game as well,” Zierlein said. “I watched a lot of Gary Kubiak, Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan offense when Kyle was here in Houston and when Gary was here in Houston. I’m quite familiar with it and I know what the right kind of quarterback looks like, and he is an elevated version of that. He’s what John Elway looks like to me.”
ReplyDeleteTrading 3 1st's for Elway makes sense. Mac Jones? Not so much.
Yes, I agree Lance looks a very good fit and is the most likely choice unless Wilson falls. To the point where I would be surprised if it is someone else.
DeleteBut, obviously I disagree regarding Jones. I think that makes sense too. Just not as much sense as Lance. More sense than Fields, imo.
The coach must account for his ego. He has to drop or sidestep the ego barrier so that people can communicate without fear. They have to be comfortable that they will not be ridiculed if they turn out to be mistaken or if their ideas are not directly in line with their superior’s. That is where the breakthrough comes. That is what it takes to build a successful, winning organization.
ReplyDelete-Bill Walsh
Greg Cosell's latest thoughts on the qbs: 20 minute audio interview by Rich Eisen:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/145947-greg-cosell-breaks-rookie-prospects-49ers-draft-options/
Heard that, George. Trey Lance has him very intrigued. Mac Jones does not have the essential movement or secondary reaction traits. He's a bad athlete and cannot offer a thing out of structure. Tom Brady threw 3 picks in the second half example was right on the money. When faced with front side pressure, Brady throws it up for grabs and it's intercepted. QB's with movement and reactionary traits have an answer in that situation.
DeleteIt's a strong point. I would like to have a mobile QB at the helm and hope Lance/Fields is the real deal. That's the question, isn't it? Is either one of them and, if so, does Shanahan think so? I like Kyle as a person but have doubts about whether he's really suited to being a head coach GM.
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