Saturday, April 3, 2021

Mocking the draft – what will the 49ers do?

By Scooter_McG

We’ve all now had time to let the 49ers big trade up to #3 settle in, and heavy debates have raged across social media about who the 49ers should and shouldn’t take. Some options being discussed have even been met with outrage at the mere thought they could happen. But with the focus on what the 49ers will do at pick #3, very little attention has been focused towards the other eight picks the 49ers have in 2021.

With free agency now mostly done and the 49ers draft intentions in round 1 known to be focused towards a QB, I believe now is a good time to present my first mock 49ers draft for 2021.

Before getting started it is worth noting that while I believe a Jimmy G trade is a very strong possibility before or during the draft, for the purposes of this mock I have assumed he remains on the roster (at least until after the draft).

Also, the key needs remaining for the 49ers as I see them are:

  • ·    Tier I needs: QB (obviously), third WR, depth/ competition at CB (inside and outside), punt returner
  • ·    Tier II needs: depth at DE, depth at TE, developmental/ backup center, depth/ competition at RB.
  • ·    Tier III needs: developmental safety, additional depth/ competition at WR, depth at DT, OL depth
  • ·    Tier IV needs: depth at LB, STs specialists.

Round 1: I won’t go in depth on this one – I have already outlined why I think Trey Lance will be the 49ers pick at #3 at length in my previous article.

Round 2: After the big trade up in round 1, I can see the 49ers looking to recoup some future draft capital by trading back in round 2, maybe a few times. I could see the 49ers even moving out of round 2 altogether in order to get an extra day 2 pick in 2021 as well as a day 2 2022 pick.

Regardless of what they do, with their second round pick I can see the team addressing their third WR and punt returner needs in one pick. If they stand pat at #43, guys like Rondale Moore or Elijah Moore would likely be in play. Both are electric, explosive slot WRs that are on the smaller side but can create big plays with the ball in their hands.

If they move back, guys like Amon-Ra St Brown or Amari Rodgers may make a lot of sense. Again, neither guy is big, though both are a little bigger than the aforementioned players. St Brown isn’t an explosive athlete but he’s a fluid athlete and gifted route runner that can play any of the WR positions. Rodgers offers similar versatility though also provides a rocked up RBs build and is highly regarded for his work ethic and maximising his talents. In fact, Rodgers is basically Deebo-lite. Both St Brown and Rodgers have experience as return men.

Round 3: I think the 49ers address their CB position here by adding Benjamin St-Juste. St-Juste is a very big, explosive and fluid athlete, built much in the same vein as Ahkello Witherspoon. While Witherspoon didn’t end up panning out, I can see the team looking at St-Juste as a similar high upside athlete.

Round 4: With the tier I needs now all accounted for, I see the team going something of a luxury pick by adding depth at a position I think fits more in their tier III needs. DT Cameron Sample fits the smaller, explosive, upfield attacking DTs that the 49ers like to employ, and I can see him being an excellent fit in the DL rotation. He has experience across the DL too, not just at DT. He impressed at the Senior Bowl with both his athleticism and refined hand usage.

Round 5: Magic round! The 49ers have three selections in round 5 and a history of finding gems here. In 2021, I can see the team adding (in no particular order) DE Chris Rumph, TE Tre McKitty, and CB Robert Rochell. Rumph is an undersized pass rushing DE but brings refined technique and explosive traits. He can be a rotational pass rusher to start, with potential to be an excellent edge rusher in the future. McKitty is an athletic TE that is a good blocker and aggressive runner after the catch, but was provided limited opportunities in the passing game in college. He has high upside as a receiver but also fits as a TE that can help the run game. Rochell adds more depth to a CB room that needs it. His athletic testing numbers (albeit likely inflated) suggest an elite athlete which also shows up on tape, and he is willing to get physical.

Round 6: The 49ers add depth to the RB room with Khalil Herbert. Herbert is a one-cut RB that has also displayed good hands out of the backfield. He is good at making defenders miss and has good vision as a runner.

Round 7: With their last pick the 49ers add their developmental center with Drew Dalman, son of former 49ers Chris. Dalman is a perfect fit for a zone-based offense, but needs to develop his strength.

So that’s my 49ers mock draft. Feel free to mock mine, or provide a mock of your own!

20 comments:

  1. I like those tiers. I think they might move back up into the 1st round if a player they like gets pushed down. They've only got 6 or so roster spots open, so they've got the ammo to make some moves with 9 picks. Good job, Scooter. Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks razor. They could easily look to do that too. I think there are more than 6 spots open for guys to compete for, but they also have cap room available to bring in FAs to fill spots too.

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    2. I really like Herbert and Dalman.

      If a player like Phillips or Paye drops into the mid to late 20's it could prompt a move up.

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  2. Well done Scooter. I too like your tier system. I still think Richie James Jr ought to get more playing time, but I am definitely in favor of finding a potential upgrade there fairly early. We both have St-Juste in round 3, how about that. The 5th round has been a good one for ShanaLynch, Little and Green law were incredible finds, but I am still unsure why they basically gave DJ Reed away to the Seahawks, seems like it was a serious miscalculation.

    Now, how do you feel about the top 5 QB's .... just joking. Cheers!

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    Replies
    1. Rondale Moore would be devastating in the slot for our opponents.

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    2. Oh yah, Rondale Moore sure is shifty, which you look for as a slot/kick returner.

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    3. That would be a tough call between the two Moore's for me. Rondale is crazy explosive with the ball in hand, but his hands a re a bit suspect. Elijah is a very polished and tough WR. I think I would go Elijah based on his superior pure WR skills.

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    4. I believe the 49ers did have a virtual meeting with Moore.

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    5. Oh that's right, the kid from Ole Miss - Elijah Moore, is another good one. Tough kid, kind of reminds me of a smaller version of Deebo.

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    6. Yeah, don't know that I agree with the comparison to Deebo for Elijah Moore. For mine he's just a really good WR. Really good ball tracking and hands. I've seen a range of pro comparsions for him from Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown to Percy Harvin. But he does offer running game versatility like Deebo.

      On your previous point re DJ Reed, yes, the 49ers made a mistake there. A bit unfortunate though - he was injured and I believe if a player goes on IR before the 53 is set they are on IR for the year by rule. I suspect they were trying to get him on IR after clearing waivers, on the thought no team would sign an injured player, but read it wrong.

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  3. Like I have previously stated I don't know enough about the college talent to make a fair analysis in the who is who thing. However I can address needs on the team. CB position - the NFC West is loaded with premier pass catchers, Center - Mack is fine for now but the need has been great for many years. Pass rusher - The NFC West has lots of talent at the QB position. Offensively WR is defiantly the weakest position group and needs a lot of infusion here. QB position regardless of who is drafted a reliable backup to the starter is needed. A rookie isn't going to cut it. Depth everywhere is always a need.

    I am on record, I do not approve of the trade but I am a Niner fan so I accept it with great anticipation and hope like heck they draft Sewell. :)

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  4. Paul Hembekides
    @PaulHembo
    · Apr 2
    Fun research project with @VinMasi - hit rate for 1st-round draft picks by position:

    C (100%)
    OT (60%)
    LB (55%)
    G (46%)
    EDGE (45%)
    QB (42%)
    RB (40%)
    S (39%)
    TE (39%)
    CB (35%)
    DT (35%)
    WR (27%)

    Determined by whether or not that player signed a 2nd contract with his draft team

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good data, Razor. Do you know how many years he went back for this analysis? The poor returns on CB and WR are well known. But DT is new to me.

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    2. Mood, I do not know how many years he went back.

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  5. Thanks for this post, Scooter. I don't follow the draft that closely and am not familiar with most of these players.

    Niners generally don't draft CBs high but do you think that this draft could be an exception, e.g., a boundary CB in the second round?

    Also, I'm not sure of Dalman's fit in the zone running scheme. Shaw and Pritchard run a power and gap scheme although of late they have incorporated occasional stretch plays to diversify their attack. But Dalman is a smart and hardworking player with decent athletic traits and excellent pedigree, and there is no reason he can't learn the scheme.

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    Replies
    1. Dalman:
      5.0 40 yard dash
      33" Vert
      9'1" Broad
      7.35 3 Cone
      4.5 Short Shuttle
      33 Bench

      Did I mention he gave up zero hits and sacks in 258 pass-block snaps in 2020?

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    2. Thanks Mood. A CB in the second is definitely a possibility. There will be a few pretty good looking options around pick 43 too. Eric Stokes matches the long and elite athleticism type they seem to generally like in the draft. Ifeatu Melifonwu (Obi's brother) could be another one to keep an eye on.

      Regarding Dalman, definitely basing his fit more on traits than experience.

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  6. Scooter, great work as always. Thanks for sharing.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks George. Any thoughts on what you would like the 49ers to do after round 1?

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