MidWestDynasty
April 4, 2021
7:09 P.M.
Not a single hour goes by that I do not see some hot take on why the 49ers should not take a one QB prospect over the other three expected to be available to the 49ers when they are on the clock with the third pick.
He played in an elite offense.
He has a higher ceiling.
This guy has questionable ability to progress through his reads.
Race is playing an issue based on their mobility. Wait, what?!
This is just a small sample of the hot takes I have seen, and excluding that nonsensical last one, this has been my response to each one.
ZZZZZ.
And why shouldn’t my response be just that? It isn’t like the QB who gets selected is going to be thrown head-first into the starting lineup and told to immediately perform miracles. Rather, it is more than likely Garoppolo will be the starting 49ers QB during the kid’s rookie season.
I know what some of you are thinking if not screaming after reading that.
BUT WHAT ABOUT IF GAROPPOLO GETS INJURED AGAIN?!
To which I respond with, “So?” We have already seen what Shanahan has done for a QB new to his offense so that he can adjust. When the 49ers acquired Jimmy Garoppolo during the 2017 season, Shanahan gave him a simplified version of the offense for Garoppolo to work with. Do you think Shanahan will not do the same for the QB he wants to lead the 49ers after the Garoppolo era ends?
I guess what I am trying to say is ignore the hot takes that are flying all around about the QB prospects in line to become the next guy under center for the 49ers. If you are a draft junkie, then study each prospect and reach your own conclusion. Do not dismiss the reports entirely but take each one with a grain of salt because some prospects will never be liked no matter what they do well or need to improve.
If you are not a draft junkie, then just follow that latter piece of advice. Or better yet, find someone who has done a film breakdown of the positives and negatives of the prospects. One person I recommend is Ted Nguyen of The Athletic.
Hot takes are just that, hot takes. Do not let them cloud a good analysis.
Very true Mid. We are, unfortunately, in the middle of hot take season and some of them are getting very spicy. Best thing to do is ignore most of what you hear unless it is backed up by genuine analysis.
ReplyDeleteIn addition to Nguyen I would add JT O'Sullivan. He does a great job with his "The QB School" series breaking down the prospects. Always good getting an actual NFL QBs thoughts on a QB prospect as they understand so much more of what the QB is asked to do.
He had a good interview with Chris Biderman recently too. Basically said he thinks any of the top 6 QBs (he rates Mond very highly too) have the potential to be great in the right situation, and he sees the 49ers as an ideal situation for pretty much any QB.
Thanks for reading Scooter. I forgot about JT O'Sullivan and his "The QB School" on YouTube. I agree he is great option and is definitely someone that fans should check out.
DeleteGreg Cossell is always a good listen, and his NFL Matchup show during the season is very informative.
DeleteI have also found the 49ers Game Plan program to be very helpful in understanding Kyle's approach to the game, These are half-hour, in-depth one-on-one weekly sit-downs with Kyle on NBCSN Bay Area during the season. They used to be conducted by Maiocco and now they are done by Greg Papa now. It's impressive how informative and consistent Kyle has been in what he says during his time with the Niners. It's funny that fans will listen to hot take entertainers trying to misread the tea leaves, when Kyle gives clear pointers to his way of thinking ans sticks to it.
That's true Mood... but weren't you one of the ones saying that the 49ers weren't going to take a QB in the first round previously, based on what Kyle was saying?
DeleteI don't see the connection. I don't expect Kyle to look into the future off-season (or two multiple off-seasons!) and discuss trading up for the next franchise QB, and then discuss it on TV on a one-on-one interview. I thought the reference was to sources that help understand Kyle's offensive philosophy and personnel evaluation methods. But I guess every discussion now revolves around draft.
DeleteWell, you were responding to comments regarding the draft. Don't get me wrong, I agree that a lot of people either don't take into account what Kyle himself says, or misinterpret what he is saying. But thought it relevant to point out that not everything he says should be taken at face value nor does it reveal all of what he thinks, it just provides some interesting insight that can still be easily misinterpreted.
DeleteMid,
ReplyDeleteNice piece. You provided a little bit of a deviation from the past week which is good change of pace.
Here’s a question that will be need to be asked if this scenario becomes a reality.
What will the team do with Garoppolo if he leads the team to the playoffs?
Do the 49ers keep JG and his contract or move on from him to allow this years QB draft pick to take the reigns.
While many (even the FO) have trepidation about Jimmy completing a full season, I look at it from a different lens.
Hey, what can I say, I’m the guy with the dissenting view (lol).
Thanks AES. I recently bought a small book on how to become a good sports blogger and am trying to utilize what I have read to improve my craft.
DeleteIn regards to your question, I think it will largely depend on what Garoppolo is able to do in the playoffs. If he lights it up, then I can see the 49ers keeping him for the final year of his contract while allowing the QB selected in 2021 to marinate a little bit more.
Thanks Mid.
DeleteMid,
DeleteYou are doing a great job. Only complaint is that you are not writing more entries.
Keep up the good work bro.
I believe JG will start the season, the question is who backs him up and that's really important. For that reason I go get Minshew from the Jags and draft whatever QB and he is third string. I wanna go to the SB and I know the odds of going with a rookie is nil. The following year if the rookie can take the next step, start em and see what the heck happens. Draft Sewell.
ReplyDeleteRazor, Mid, Scooter - good job!
An experienced backup QB would serve the Niners well if Jimmy gets hurt, or if they get an offer for Jimmy that they simply cannot refuse. Also, no matter what it seems Jimmy will be gone by next season so it would behoove them to have their backup QB up to speed on the offense.
DeleteThe thing is, they may feel like they already have that QB in house, and his name is Josh Rosen.
49,
DeleteRosen is a hard player to figure out.
Is he being bounced around because of his inabilities or is there an issue with his attitude?
The guy was a top 10 pick and for some reason he just can’t establish himself on a team. He has shown some flashes so it’s evident that there’s talent, but Rosen is starting to look like he will bounce around the league until he eventually finds a home or is out.
I want to see if Shanahan can help Rosen find his groove. Because if Shanahan can’t do it, I don’t know what other coach can.
I’m just not ready to count on Rosen at this point.
Rosen was brought in late last year by the 49ers literally because they had very little alternative - they needed a backup QB for game day and due to COVID protocols they could only add someone off a PS. He wasn't even their first choice QB to bring in - that was Josh Johnson who they brought in the week before.
DeleteSo no, they absolutely should not be counting on Rosen as he has failed to hold down a job at any of his previous stops. And while the 49ers are happy to bring him into camp, nothing they did in signing him last year should inspire belief the team has high hopes for him. If he has a great camp then awesome, maybe he sticks as the #3.
Thanks Scooter,
DeleteI share the same sentiments re Rosen.
I agree with your point scooter, only they did resign Rosen after the season, didn't they, so they must be, at the very least, luke warm on him as a potential backup.
DeleteThey need camp arms 49reasons. So yeah, they don't mind bringing he (and Johnson) to camp, see what happens.
DeleteHere are a couple more HOT TAKES ....
ReplyDelete1) Since 2010, 23 QB's have been drafted in the 1st round. Of those 23, only 6 are really considered to be "home run picks", meaning they have more or less lived up to their 1st round draft status. And it ends up that all 6 of those 1st round worthy QB's are extremely mobile (Newton, Luck, Mahomes, Allen, Murrey, and Herbert, although it might be a tad early to draw conclusions on Herbert). With 1st round results like that over the last decade, it's no wonder that the NFL QB position is trending towards mobility, and athleticism.
Also:
2) There are 2 QB's who have won a Super Bowl under Mike Shanahan / Kyle Shanahan, and both of those QB's had elite PHYSICAL traits - Young had elite mobility, and Elway had an elite combination of mobility & arm talent.
49reasons - You may be right about Rosen but he has some growing up to do so I am not sure you can count on him. There is a reason why he is on his third or fourth team so early in his career.
ReplyDeleteYou're are right about them needing a 3rd QB undercenter, and you are right about Rosen. He is certainly a question mark for the reason you stated.
ReplyDeleteYou got that right, Mid. Good job.
ReplyDeleteThanks Razor.
DeleteJim Mora comments on what's up with Josh Rosen:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/jim-mora-jr-explains-why-49ers-qb-josh-rosen-has-not-lived-up-to-expectations
Mid, should have mentioned, thanks very much for your article.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome George.
DeleteGeorge, thanks for the link.
ReplyDeleteInteresting take from his college coach.
MORA Jr.: "Some of the worst words you can use when you're trying to learn to be great is, 'I've got it.' And when I was with him -- I don't know how he is now -- he used that phrase too often. 'I've got it.' I'm just hopeful that at this point in his life and his career and his maturity that he realizes that he doesn't got it. That he needs to listen to other people. And I think if he does that, then he has a chance to be really special. If he doesn't do that, then he's going to find himself out of the league.”
Not a good trait (“I got it”) when coming into the league as well as in the locker room.
Looks like some sincere humility might go a long way for Rosen.
Looks like the Panthers are admitting defeat when it comes to a QB they want falling to #8. Schefter saying they have traded for Darnold.
ReplyDeleteThey have an aggressive owner, an aggressive GM, an aggressive coach, and they are all willing to scour the earth for one thing — a long-term solution at quarterback. They don’t seem sold on Teddy Bridgewater.
DeleteESPN reporter Jeremy Fowler on Panthers’ QB strategy
After "scouring the earth", they finally found their "guy". Lmao.
If I had to guess, I'd say there is a good chance that the top 4 picks are QBs this year. Either that or the Panthers know the 49ers are taking the QB they wanted.
DeleteI believe it is the latter Scooter.
DeleteSince taking over in 17', Kyle Shanahan's 49ers have taken the 3rd most total snaps from under center (52.3%), the 3rd most drop backs from under center, and the 3rd most play action drop backs from under center, in the NFL. Nearly 40% of the Niners' total passing yards during that same span, came off of play action. These plays have become staples of the Kyle Shanahan system.
ReplyDeleteOf the "top 5" QB's in this months draft class, guess which QB played from under center the least?
The answer is Alabama's MAC JONES, and it's not even close. Mac Jones dropped back from under center on LESS THAN 2% of his snaps, and his play action from under center was also under 2%. On those plays Mac Jones went 6-10 for 5.3 AVG, 3 TD's and 1 INT. For comparison, TREY LANCE took 30% of his drop backs from under center, and 24% were play action from under center. His numbers on those plays: under center without PA he went 65-95 (68.4%) 992 YDS, 13 TD's, 1 INT, and he went 53-77 (68.8%) 847 YDS, 12 TD's, 0 INT's. JUSTIN FIELDS numbers were somewhere in-between.
I don't know if that's a hot take, but it's a blazing red flag for me! All of this talk about Mac Jones has got to be some kind of smokescreen, although now that the Jets moved Darnold, I'm not sure how much value is left for the Niners to continue to be coy with their choice!
No, that's NOT a typo. From the numbers I have, Mac Jones did indeed only throw 10 TOTAL PASSES dropping back from under center in 2020/21, and guess what, according to reports he didn't exactly look sharp simulating drop backs during either one of his workouts either. Unlike Bill Belichick, who was shaking his head, Kyle did his best poker faced look after Mac threw yet another over throw dropping back during is pro day, which I found interesting. Of course it was a completely different reaction than we saw after Garoppolo's brutal over throw of Emmanuel Sanders in the waning moments of Super Bowl LIV.
DeleteSorry guys!
That's not a hot take, that's research. I saw that on twitter earlier. Can't recall who it was that did it though, but it is good info.
DeleteThing is, that's only one aspect of Shanahan's offense. And it is something that can be taught.
My assessment, and I've seen this from more than one scouting report, Mac Jones is very inconsistent with his weight transfer, and when you do that, it really hard to gauge you deeper level throws. Thus, a lot of over throws and under throws. You can probably get away with it on your short to intermediate passes in college, especially if you are if you're throwing to Waddle & Smith, 2 elite separators, but that's a flaw right there that he's going to need to get fixed.
DeleteI know this talk is getting old guys but this could be the whole enchilada from my viewpoint. This is the pick that will determine so much for this team over the next 5-7 years minimum. And I'm not trying to be negative or rip on the kid, because he seems like a real good kid, and I think he might be able to have an NFL career under the right circumstances (NE maybe), and that's a rare thing in itself. But no way am I happy to give up the house to draft him with what I see are vastly superior talents available to my Niners. I am assuming Lawrence and Wilson are gone, and I can get on board with taking Trey Lance, but what I really want to hear is Justin Fields to the 49ers. I'm with guys like Pro Safety - Ryan Clark (SEC Champ, Super Bowl Champ) who believe Fields is a slam dunk perennial All-Pro under Kyle Shanahan. Fields and Lawrence have been #1 and #1a for years, and Fields seriously outplayed Lawrence head to head. Fields 2019 was off the charts, and he's facing the toughest defenses, by far, and his covid-damaged 2020 was nearly as great, in fact his gutsy, semi final performance against Clemson was perhaps the best I've seen from a college QB in one of the biggest games, certainly since they went to the new playoff system.
I see no reason to over think this thing. Like I heard Jeff Saturday say, you can't knock a college QB for going to their primary receiver, because they are taught to go with their first read if it's there. He mention that you can make the same knock on most QB's, and a guy he played with, PEYTON MANNING, who was the same way coming out of Tennessee, and Manning struggled during his rookie season with a low completion percentage and more INT's than TD's, but he was simply adjusting to the pros. Given the same criteria, people would have been calling Peyton Manning a bust after his rookie season. It's ridiculous to knock Fields for doing what Ryan Day asked him to do.
49Reasons,
ReplyDelete“This is the pick that will determine so much for this team over the next 5-7 years minimum.”
Shanahan HAS to hit a home run with his QB pick. If he swings and misses, the fact that he gave up so much will not only exacerbate his whiff, but will leave an unfortunate mark on his career.
At this point I have my favorite (Wilson) which will likely be off the board. So whether it’s Fields, Lance or Jones, Shanahan’ and Lynch’ reputations will be riding on it.
No doubt, AES. This pick is absolutely paramount! This pick will absolutely define Kyle's career. Everyone knows Kyle has the final say, so I don't think John Lynch's legacy is on the line, but Kyle .... he can stay the hero, or go to zero!
Delete