Wednesday, April 7, 2021

The evolution of Shanahan’s offense and how it may impact the 49ers decision at #3

By Scooter_McG

Kyle Shanahan is widely recognised as one of the best and most creative offensive minds in the NFL. His offense originates from the same principles his father and Gary Kubiak employed, which was based on running to set up the pass, using primarily outside zone running game meshed with heavy play action and boot action to confuse the defense, get them out of position, and create big plays. In executing his offense, two element Shanahan has continually emphasised are space and speed – his offenses are designed to get players in space and he almost always has a lot of skill position players with the speed to take advantage of the space his creativity creates.

While these principles are still core to his system, Shanahan’s offense has evolved considerably since when he first became an offensive coordinator.

A key change that has been occurring is the transition towards the “positionless” offense. In his previous stops Shanahan typically employed fairly traditional roles for his skill position players. However, over his time with the 49ers Shanahan has increasingly emphasised adding skill position players that are more hybrid players than specialised skill position players.

The run game remains the key to Shanahan’s offense, and is still based primarily on an outside zone scheme. However, the way he uses the run has evolved to become one of the most diverse running games in the NFL, incorporating a wide range of run plays including power, traps, counters, whams and sweeps, as well as inside zone runs. Importantly, the transition to a “positionless” offense allows Shanahan to incorporate many of his skill position players in the running game, without signalling to the opposition what the play will be based on personnel. To do so Shanahan employs lots of motion and misdirection to disguise who will receive the ball.

The passing game Shanahan employs has also evolved. While Shanahan continues to take advantage of his highly effective and explosive run game by utilising a heavy dose of play action concepts, there has been a considerable shift in how, and where, he attacks defenses with his passing game. In most of Shanahan’s previous stops he has typically aimed to take advantage of the speed element in his offense by incorporating a lot of deep shot plays, usually off play action. He also has traditionally incorporated a lot of pass plays that attack the intermediate areas of the field. However, in recent years the passing offense has shifted more and more towards a short passing game, looking to get the ball in the hands of his skill position players quickly and in space.  

Part of this transition comes down to the skill position players Shanahan has been adding. Having WRs and TEs with RB-like skills will naturally lend itself to getting these players the ball quickly and in space as much as possible. Part of the transition may also come down to the QB, which may be part of the reason Shanahan was willing to trade up to draft a QB at #3.

Shanahan’s willingness to adapt his offense to his players was something he himself noted in December last year, when discussing how he evaluates QBs. "I don't think you have one certain type you're looking for. You're just trying to find a guy who is better than about 98 percent of the people on this planet, or in this country, and when you find that, you get him, and you adjust to him."

This is part of what makes Kyle Shanahan such a good offensive mind. He doesn’t just pigeonhole a player into running his offense – he adapts his offense all the time to not only stay ahead of defenses, but also to cater to the skillsets of his players.

Shanahan also recently outlined in their recent press conference after the trade up to #3 that his preference is for the “biggest, strongest, fastest and best pocket QB”. While obvious, that type of QB is exactly what the best offensive innovators want, because they allow creative offensive minds to evolve the offense however they so choose. As our esteemed blog host Razoreater pointed out recently, Kyle’s dad had his Super Bowl success with John Elway and Steve Young at QB – two QBs that were excellent in the pocket but also elite athletes that could evade pressure, throw accurately on the move and also pick up yards with their feet if things broke down. This allowed Mike Shanahan to be as creative as he pleased with his offense. However, finding QBs that are elite athletes as well as elite pocket QBs is hard, as there are very few of them.

So what does this all mean for the 49ers when it comes to pick #3?

Well for starters, it means that what we have seen historically from Shanahan’s offenses is not necessarily a good indicator of what Shanahan envisions his offense being in the near future, nor a guide to what type of QB he wants moving forward. So when you read a report telling you that Mac Jones is the best fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, understand this – Jones is what that person believes most fits the offense Kyle has historically run. They have no idea if he will fit what Shanahan envisions his offense evolving to next.

It also means that whoever Shanahan does take, he sees that player as having the traits to be elite, and he will adjust what he does to accommodate that player (as well as all the other players on his offense). So when someone tells you there is no way Shanahan would want Mac Jones because it will limit what Shanahan can do, understand this – Shanahan will adjust to accommodate his QB’s strengths and weaknesses.

However, despite being willing to adjust to his QB, the ideal scenario would be to find a QB that can do it all. A guy that allows Shanahan to be as creative as wants in the knowledge his QB has the ability to run whatever he draws up effectively. Basically, to find Kyle his John Elway. So the question is – did the 49ers move up to #3 to find an guy that can be elite in the right circumstances that Shanahan needs to adjust to, or did they move up to grab a guy Kyle believes will allow him to do anything he wants on offense?

34 comments:

  1. Scooter
    As usual, another fine article and as usual,I've enjoyed reading it....
    Here's an article that continues the train of thought about the 9ers QFOTF that KS will, or should, draft.

    Sherman believes the 49ers will keep Jimmy G and draft Justin Fields.
    Sherman had an incredible response when the conversation about Fields came up that is a must-listen.....
    https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/4/7/22371188/sherman-believes-the-49ers-will-keep-jimmy-g-and-draft-justin-fields

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    Replies
    1. 2021 NFL Draft: Justin Fields' scouting report after Ohio State career.
      https://sports.yahoo.com/2021-nfl-draft-justin-fields-155647486.html

      Delete
    2. Justin Fields' 'crazy' pre-NFL draft criticism dismissed by Ryan Day.
      https://sports.yahoo.com/justin-fields-crazy-pre-nfl-153935594.html

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    3. Thanks GEEP, glad you enjoyed it. Sherman is an intelligent man, but I doubt he has any great insight on what Shanahan is thinking either.

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    4. Scooter
      Like you, I too doubt Sherman he has any great insight on what KS is thinking. OTOH, he's well versed in the
      false narrative that Fields is too "SLOW" to make his
      reads. As the article points out, he may be better?

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    5. My preference would be Lance - I think he has shown better pocket skills consistently than Fields. But part of that comes down to the offense Fields was in. I'd be fine with either guy. If Shanahan really wants Fields I trust he believes Fields can become a very good pocket passer.

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  2. Scooter, thanks again for another fine article. Your final words put the whole matter into perspective: Did the 49ers move up to #3 to find an guy that can be elite in the right circumstances that Shanahan needs to adjust to, or did they move up to grab a guy Kyle believes will allow him to do anything he wants on offense? Let's hope it's door number 2.

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    1. Thanks George. I definitely believe it is door #2.

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  3. Thanks for another well timed article, Scooter. I too am hoping it's door #2, but I don't think that's any surprise.

    BTW, did anyone catch Grant Cohn's most recent SI article? He's now speculating that because ShanaLynch's move up to #3 seems a little haphazard, that Jed York may have forced their hand.

    That fits right along with my line of thinking in how perception can unfortunately become reality for a lot of sportswriters & fans.

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    1. Now, if this kind of analysis was simply limited to the Grant Cohn's of the world, I could care less. But because Mac Jones seems like the least likely candidate for pick #3, in the eyes of so many fans and pundits, I feel like it would be prudent for ShanaLynch to use their best sales job to sell this to the fans, if he truly is the pick.

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    2. Here's the million dollar question:

      If a player is considered a huge "reach" at their draft position, is there a risk that the fan base won't give them a fair shake? Does that put added pressure on the player, HC, and FO?

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    3. And, BTW, Richard Sherman just threw fuel on the proverbial fire, saying he believes the 49ers will take Justin Fields with the 3rd pick.

      Oh boy!

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    4. Thanks 49reasons. What I laid out is exactly why I don't believe the narrative it will be Jones. It's not out of the realms of possibility, but I think options will be there at #3 that more closely resemble that complete QB.

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    5. Also, does anyone really believe Grant's conjecture that Jed made them trade up? Kyle wouldn't stand for that sort of meddling.

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    6. Another add to, Grant's stupid hot take collection.

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    7. Yeah, Grant's in a position where he has to be providing new content consistently, and hot takes help drum up clicks. I'm sure he doesn't believe Jed forced Kyle and John's hand.

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    8. The truth is, Grant Cohn is developing a reputation as a 49ers troll, over at SI.

      For real!

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  4. Oh, and on an aptitude test that tested over 6,500 athletes, many of whom are professional athletes, Just Fields scored the highest, ever, out of every single one of those 6,500 athletes. But because the system he played in didn't ask him to consistently go through his reads, somehow Mac Jones is the superior processor, even though he also wasn't asked to go through all of his reads very often either, and who, BTW, was without question, throwing to the best WR group in the FBS.

    It's just ludicrous! People need to listen to Richard Sherman's assessment, it's a must listen for all Niner fans!

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  5. I really need to stop for the day, because once again, all of this talk of Mac Jones in the same fricken breath as Justin Fields, is making my blood boil!

    I mean, Mac Jones' DUI and fake ID incident is now being framed in a positive light, as some kind of "transitional" moment for the young Alabama QB. I understand young people make mistakes, god knows I made my share, but does anyone really believe if it was Justin Fields who was caught drunk driving while possessing a fake ID, that the media would be putting some kind of positive spin on the incident? Or if it was Mac Jones who scored higher than all 6,500+ athletes on an aptitude test, that Mac wouldn't be getting more credit for this than Fields is getting? SMH!

    I'll stop right there! Peace out for now guys, and GO NINERS!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 49Reasons
      Just some friendly advice from another 9er fan!
      This Mac Jones thing is living rent free in you head
      and you know it!
      FACT #1: The QBOTF the 9ers pick at #3 will be forgotten with a few wins.
      FACT #2: Worst case, the 9ers have their QBOTF on a rookie contract and the cap space to resign Bosa and Warner to new long term contracts.
      FACT #3: One AB may be better then the other two, but any one of the 3, Fields, Lance or Jones are capable of running the KS offense. The defense is built to win championships, as long as the offense does it's job.
      Remember the old adage: It's always darkest, just before the dawn....

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    2. "This Mac Jones thing is living rent free in your head"

      This statement couldn't be any truer and trust me GEEP, I am fully aware of this fact. Unfortunately for me, I'm afraid the only thing that will change my mind at this point is the results, and those "results" are likely at least a year away from coming to fruition.

      It's not that I am close-minded at this stag, because my mind is already made up. Everytime I hope something will warm me up to the idea of Mac Jones, the more I dig, and the more I find, the more strongly I feel like taking Mac Jones will make the first round of ShanaLynch's first NFL draft (Thomas/Foster) seem like a home run in comparison!

      Yikes!

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    3. Trust me though when I tell you that, one way or another, if it does end up being Mac Jones, I'll get on board with giving it a fair chance, because that's what real fans do.

      But right now, with 3 plus weeks still ahead, I have no problem voicing my disaproval of a pick if I feel so strongly against it. I know it's getting old, but I can't read a 49ers article right now that doesn't present this choice as a career and franchise defining pick. That's simply the reality of the situation!

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  6. 49Reasons
    OK my man, it's you head Jones is living rent free in.... AND, if you enjoy being MASOCHISTIC to yourself....

    * Masochistic = enjoying an activity that appears to be painful or tedious.
    "he seems to take a masochistic delight in confronting uncomfortable truths" (It doesn't matter which of the 3 QB the 9ers choose! One may be better, but all 3 capable of executing KS offense.
    A) The O-line is now improved and capable of giving the QB time to go thru their progression to make their reads and includes the new Center, Alex Mac, giving the QB the ability to step up in the pocket without being sacked.
    B) When the 9ers draft a top CB (or 2), another EDGE, TE and
    WR, this 9er defense will be top 5 in the NFL and the offense, with or without JG, will be made to win championships....So kick on back and enjoy the ride!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are priceless, GEEP!

      Cheers, my friend!

      Delete
  7. Niners sign QB Nate Sudfeld.

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    1. Garoppolo, Rookie, Sudfeld, Rosen and Johnson. May the best man win.

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  8. Except for Johnson, the Shanahan QB profile is clearly defined in Garoppolo, Rosen and now Sudfeld.
    If Shanahan chooses to follow his QB profile then it’s my guess that Mac Jones is his target.
    Obviously, the 49ers will not keep all these QBs on board. Who stays and who goes?

    Does the signing of Sudfeld effect Garoppolo’ status? Maybe Jimmy remains the starter and Rosen and Sudfeld battle for the backup spot.
    Also,I tend to believe that the 49ers keep Johnson because he gives them the only QB that could almost mimic RW and KM during team preparations for games against Seattle and Arizona.

    Here’s my unofficial order of the 49ers QB status heading into 2021.
    1. Jimmy Garoppolo
    2. Josh Rosen
    3. Rookie
    PS. Josh Johnson.

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    1. I think Sudfeld is just a camp arm. That order sounds about right to me. With the idea the rookie plays/ practices his way to #2 and then #1.

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    2. @Scooter:

      Isn't 4 QBs the usual number going into camp? Five sounds high and makes one wonder a little bit if something else might be going on or will happen?

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    3. Shanahan has taken up to 5 into camp previously. So I am not expecting this is a sign of anything with one of the existing QBs. But they could also be letting a QB go. If so, I imagine it is more a case of Rosen or Johnson at risk, nothing to do with JG. Sudfeld isn't a starting QB.

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  10. Benjamin Solak with a more in-depth look at Shanahan's scheme and the fit at #3. I recommend the read.

    https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/49ers-draft-scheme-fit-trey-lance-mac-jones-justin-fields

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