Week 16 Matchups to Watch: 49ers at Titans

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers face the Titans on Thursday Night Football to kick off week 16 and, hopefully, provide 49ers fans with some early Christmas cheer. This game promises to be a much more difficult affair than Sunday's dismantling of the Falcons, as the Titans (who are 9-5 and leading the AFC South) possess one of the better defenses in the NFL. 

Here is what I'll be keeping an eye on.

Strength vs strength - 49ers running game vs Titans run defense. In some respects this is a bit of a matchup nightmare for the 49ers. They turned their season around off the back of their running game, not necessarily due to a lot of explosive runs but more so out of consistently churning out yards. However, the Titans are one of the toughest teams to run against in the NFL, boasting the 2nd fewest rushing yards allowed and 5th lowest average yards per attempt. 

Despite the strength of the Titans run defense, this feels like a game the 49ers should stick with the run to help set up the play action pass and keep the Titans pass rush at bay. With that in mind it will be critical that the 49ers find some success in the running game - even if they fail to rattle off explosive runs they need to find a way to consistently pick up yards and keep themselves in good down and distance situations. 

With Eli Mitchell ruled out again this week, the onus will be on Jeff Wilson Jr to carry the load once more, and no doubt we will see the team try and get some explosive runs through Deebo Samuel.

Good Jimmy vs Titans pass rush and opportunistic defense. While the Titans run game is very stingy, at first glance it may appear the Titans pass defense is a little more vulnerable ranking 20th in terms of passing yards allowed. However, that is more a case of forcing teams to pass due to stingy run defense, which actually plays into the Titans hands. They allow a miserly 6.1 net yards per pass attempt, and have a very dangerous pass rush led by Harold Landry (11 sacks), Jeffery Simmons (7.5 sacks) and Denico Autry (7 sacks). They have also allowed only 20 passing TDs on the season (good for 9th), with 13 intercepts (led by Kevin Byard with 5). This is a very strong defensive unit against the pass and will test the 49ers pass protection and Jimmy G's decision making. 

Jimmy won't have the same kind of time and comfort in the pocket he enjoyed against the Falcons, and we shouldn't expect as good a performance from him as a result. But they will need him to avoid turnovers and continue making clutch plays on key downs to extend drives and score points. A bad Jimmy performance could sink the 49ers quickly in this one. 

Stop the run. This should be the focus for the defense this week - stopping the Titans 4th ranked rushing offense. With Derrick Henry missing you could be forgiven for thinking that should be an easy task. However, the combination of D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard have been on fire over the past four weeks, leading the Titans rushing offense to an average of nearly 170 rushing yards per game over that span. In fact, Foreman and Hilliard both have better rushing averages than Henry on the season. 

It would be a big mistake for the 49ers to take this rushing attack for granted. 

The 49ers run defense has been very good through the second half of the season, allowing under 80 rushing yards per game over the past six games. Part of that has been due to time of possession, but it has also coincided with a much better effort stopping the opponents running game over that period. The 49ers will need another strong run defense effort in this one.  

Takeaways. The turnover battle looks to me like a real deciding factor in this one. Not exactly earth shattering stuff as it is important every week, but this one in particular feels like a game that will ultimately be decided by the turnover battle. 

The good news for the 49ers is that the Titans have been a bit loose with the ball this year, especially since Derrick Henry went down with injury. That has put more pressure on Ryan Tannehill to extend drives and produce points, with mixed results. 

On the season Tannehill has thrown only 14 TDs with as many INTs. Since Henry's injury that ratio is just 4 TD passes against 7 INTs, and Tannehill hasn't thrown a TD pass the past two games. What has to be even more concerning for the Titans is that in the 8 games Derrick Henry played, Tannehill was averaging 250 passing yards per game at 7.6 yards per attempt. Since Henry has been injured that has dropped all the way down to 186 yards per game and 5.9 yards per attempt. 

If the 49ers are able to contain the Titans running game then the pass rush should become a real factor in this one (especially with Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold ruled out for the Titans), and the 49ers should be able to force some turnovers out of Tannehill. Getting points off those turnovers could be the key to victory.

Proceed With Caution

 The Titans defense ranks 13th in DVOA, four spots below the 49ers. They've got two very good safeties in Byard (5 INT's) and Hooker.  Pair that with a formidable pass rush with 35 sacks and a 7.3% adjusted sack rate, good enough for 6th in the NFL and you've got trouble ahead. Landry(11 sacks) and Autry(7 sacks) are their speed rushers, and Simmons(7 sacks) is the heavy artillery.

Jimmy Garoppolo is going to need to be super sharp, possibly the sharpest he's been all year when he drops back to throw. I would expect the Shanny Plan to limit the right sides exposure to pass pro as much as possible. This would probably be one of those 40 rushing attempts game plans however, they're down to just two running backs they can trust, Wilson and Samuel; not to mention they travel east on a very short week. They're going to need Jimmy to make plays while avoiding that whiskey, tango, foxtrot interception in order to travel back home victorious.

Week 15 Post Match Review: Falcons at 49ers

By Scooter_McG 

The 49ers take their season record to 8-6 with a resounding win over the Falcons at home and now have a firm grip on the 6th seed in the NFC. This had the potential to be a real trap game for the 49ers given they have to travel to Tennessee to face the Titans on Thursday Night Football, but they took care of business with a dominant performance.

Things got off to a shaky start courtesy of a JaMycal Hasty lost fumble off the opening kickoff. I have to admit I had my doubts about how the 49ers would fare following that gaffe. But the defense demonstrated their resolve early with a goal line stand and 4th down stop. It would not the last time the defense held in such a fashion. 

The 49ers offense got off to a slow start with a drop by Jennings on 2nd down setting up a quick 3 and out, which then led to a Falcons FG and their only lead of the game. From then on the 49ers offense was rolling. Yes, they ended up settling for a FG on that second drive, but they moved the ball down the field easily through two big pick ups to Kittle, including a nice ball down the seam. It was a sign of the 49ers intent as they attacked the middle of the field relentlessly throughout the game and came up with a number of big plays as a result. The running game played a nice complement to the passing game throughout the first half and third quarter, picking up nice gains to keep the team in good down and distance, while also delivering three TDs on the ground. The 49ers ended up scoring on five consecutive drives, with four straight TD drives following the FG. 

In the end the run to pass ratio was highly skewed towards the run, but that was very much more a case of running the ball once they had a big lead. On the way to 31 points the team played with excellent run/ pass balance to keep the Falcons from keying on any one area.

The defense also did its part. They had a brief lapse after the 49ers first TD where they allowed penalties on third downs to extend the Falcons drive, leading to a TD over Thomas. But aside from that they continuously harrassed Ryan and shut down the Falcons running game. 

Here is what stood out to me in this one. 

Special teams not so special. Once again the 49ers special teams were the weakest part of the team, and a cause for concern every time there was a kickoff (whether it be returning it or defending it). They only had the one turnover (off the opening kickoff), but they felt like a big play waiting to happen for the opposition any time they were on the field. Aiyuk also continues to look uncomfortable handling punt return duties, constantly letting the ball hit the ground and then trying to field the bouncing ball. 

I can't help but feel that special teams are going to be the downfall of the 49ers season at some point, possibly in a playoff game. 

Offensive line was dominant. Jimmy G was rarely even pressured in this one, let alone touched, while the RBs were given some nice holes to run into. The offensive line deserves a lot of credit for how they handled the Falcons defensive front in this game. While it wasn't the most difficult of assignments (the Falcons have one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL) seeing the easy movement they generated a number of times in the running game was a delight, and the comfort Jimmy G felt in the pocket was obvious. 

Speaking of Jimmy G... this was arguably his best game of the year in my opinion. Definitely one of the most efficient performances we've seen from him. He finished the game 18 of 23 for 235 yards and a TD, and three of those incompletions were drops by Jauan Jennings that he should have caught. His day included some excellent throws over the middle of the field as he took advantage of the Falcons LBs and safeties in coverage, leading to big 25 yard+ gains for Kittle, Aiyuk and Deebo. And he didn't have any of those characteristic "WTF Jimmy?" throws we are accustomed to. Importantly, this also wasn't a game where they leaned on the running game to get the offense going - a lot of the 49ers scoring drives included early big gaining throws from JG to get them rolling. 

Pass rush gets it done. They may have only finished with 3 sacks, but the 49ers defense put pressure on Ryan all day. In addition to those three sacks they also had 10 QB hits, as well as many other pressures. Arden Key in particular was impressive in this one, with one sack and 2 QB hits, and he should have had 2 sacks if not for a roughing the passer penalty for driving with force. The Falcons first drive of the second half really put the game in the control of the 49ers, with two sacks including a forced fumble on the second by Bosa that gave the 49ers good field position to go score a TD and put themselves up by two scores.

Goal line heroes. In addition to the goal line stand to start the game, the 49ers defense iced this one with two straight goal line stands at the end. It epitomised the energy and speed the 49ers defense played with throughout the game, and was a well deserved reward for those efforts.  

Where to from here? In addition to keeping the 49ers at least one game ahead in the race for 6th spot in the NFC, the win also gives the 49ers the tie breakers against three of the teams in the hunt for the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC. The 49ers chances of making the playoffs are now looking very good. 

Helping matters, their next opponent, the Titans, are still dealing with injuries to a number of key players, none more notable than Derrick Henry. They've still managed to win a number of games in his absence (though lost today to the Steelers after a second half meltdown) but look far more vulnerable without his steadying presence churning out yards to keep the pressure of Tannehill needing to lead them to points. A win over the Titans should almost be enough to secure a playoff spot for the 49ers. 

With the Cardinals losing to the Lions today, and looking well out of sorts in recent weeks, there is even a remote chance the 49ers could compete for the NFC West division title. However, that would seem very unlikely. The fact the 49ers are in such a healthy spot for a playoff berth is a feat in and of itself given where the team came from during the first half of the season. 

Sunday Gameday Live Falcons vs. 49ers

 49ers In-Actives:

* RB Elijah Mitchell * LB Azeez Al-Shaair * LB Dre Greenlaw * DL Maurice Hurst * OL Colton McKivitz

Week 15 Matchups to Watch: Falcons at 49ers

By Scooter_McG 

After sneaking home against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week to take their season record to 7-6, the 49ers are back at Levi's in week 15 and hosting one of their rivals for an NFC wildcard spot in the 6-7 Falcons. With the fight for the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC a hotly contested one, this is a game the 49ers simply can't afford to lose. 

Based on record alone this would seem like it should be a very close affair. However, taking a deeper dive into the two teams shows records can be deceiving. The Falcons have the 26th ranked offense in points scored and 28th ranked defense in points. In terms of yards, the Falcons sit at 24th in the NFL in both offense and defense. Looking at more advanced metrics the Falcons rank dead last in the NFL in terms of overall team DVOA, including 30th in offensive DVOA, 29th in defensive DVOA and 30th in special teams DVOA. All in all, this is a team that has gotten very lucky in terms of squeaking out some wins against other very bad teams - they are yet to beat a team with a winning record on the season. 

The 49ers on the other hand have the 13th ranked offense in points scored and 12th in yards, while on defense are 20th in points allowed but 8th in yards. In terms of DVOA the 49ers rank 8th in the NFL, including 6th in offense, 8th in defense and 21st in special teams. The overall team performance has been better than the record, but as any 49ers fan knows, this is a 49ers team that has thrown away a lot of games they should have won with silly mistakes.

With that in mind, here is what I'll be watching for in this one.

Don't look past this game. The 49ers are too good for the Falcons. This is a game that shouldn't be particularly close, and the 49ers should be able to control the game for large stretches. However, the biggest obstacle for the 49ers in 2021 has been themselves. With a short turnaround coming up against a much more difficult opponent in the Titans on Thursday night, there is a real risk the 49ers might get caught looking ahead and switch off. A lack of focus and discipline has cost the 49ers a number of very winnable games already this season and they can ill afford to have that happen again this week against the Falcons. 

Bosa and company vs the Falcons OL. The Falcons OL is horrendous, particularly when it comes to pass blocking. As a unit, PFF ranks them 26th in the NFL, with four of five starters with below average pass blocking grades. Jalen Mayfield on his own has been credited with 9 sacks and 46 pressures allowed. The Falcons running game has also struggled and is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.

This should be a game where the 49ers DL can dominate proceedings. Nick Bosa has been stellar this season, with 14 sacks and 28 QB hits in 13 games. In recent weeks the 49ers have been letting Bosa switch sides more frequently and that flexibility should provide plenty of opportunities for mismatches in this one. But don't be surprised if it is the interior of the 49ers DL that provides the majority of big plays against the shaky Falcons front. 

Kittle and Deebo vs the Falcons middle of the field coverage. George Kittle has been dominant the past two weeks, reminding 49er fans just how good he can be as a receiver. Deebo Samuel has been much quieter in recent weeks as a receiver, but through the first half of the season he was lighting up the NFL on his way to being the 2nd leading receiver in yards behind Cooper Kupp.

Both players excel going over the middle of the field and exploiting the slower LBs and safeties. The middle of the field also just happens to be the sweet spot for Jimmy G. With Eli Mitchell ruled out for a second straight game I expect to see the 49ers target the middle of the field a lot in this one, testing the Falcons linebackers and safeties who have not played well this season. 

Ford Recall

 I expect the 49ers to cut Ford with a post June 1st designation, which will split the dead money fee from the prorated signing bonus between 2022/23, thereby reducing the 2022 cap fee by $4.9 million to $9.5 million. That would leave a $4.9 million cap fee for 2023, but save the 49ers $2.4 million in cap fees for 2022. 

It may be that Ford comes to the realization that his time has run out on his back and he hangs up the cleats. I think that's what would be in his best interest. He had a good run and there's no way we make the Super Bowl without him, but in the future; it's a cautionary tale for GM John Lynch. 

Jaquiski Dangerfield?

 Jaquiski Tartt is the highest graded tackler on the #49ers with an 85.3 grade, per @PFF