By Scooter_McG
After sneaking home against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week to take their season record to 7-6, the 49ers are back at Levi's in week 15 and hosting one of their rivals for an NFC wildcard spot in the 6-7 Falcons. With the fight for the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC a hotly contested one, this is a game the 49ers simply can't afford to lose.
Based on record alone this would seem like it should be a very close affair. However, taking a deeper dive into the two teams shows records can be deceiving. The Falcons have the 26th ranked offense in points scored and 28th ranked defense in points. In terms of yards, the Falcons sit at 24th in the NFL in both offense and defense. Looking at more advanced metrics the Falcons rank dead last in the NFL in terms of overall team DVOA, including 30th in offensive DVOA, 29th in defensive DVOA and 30th in special teams DVOA. All in all, this is a team that has gotten very lucky in terms of squeaking out some wins against other very bad teams - they are yet to beat a team with a winning record on the season.
The 49ers on the other hand have the 13th ranked offense in points scored and 12th in yards, while on defense are 20th in points allowed but 8th in yards. In terms of DVOA the 49ers rank 8th in the NFL, including 6th in offense, 8th in defense and 21st in special teams. The overall team performance has been better than the record, but as any 49ers fan knows, this is a 49ers team that has thrown away a lot of games they should have won with silly mistakes.
With that in mind, here is what I'll be watching for in this one.
Don't look past this game. The 49ers are too good for the Falcons. This is a game that shouldn't be particularly close, and the 49ers should be able to control the game for large stretches. However, the biggest obstacle for the 49ers in 2021 has been themselves. With a short turnaround coming up against a much more difficult opponent in the Titans on Thursday night, there is a real risk the 49ers might get caught looking ahead and switch off. A lack of focus and discipline has cost the 49ers a number of very winnable games already this season and they can ill afford to have that happen again this week against the Falcons.
Bosa and company vs the Falcons OL. The Falcons OL is horrendous, particularly when it comes to pass blocking. As a unit, PFF ranks them 26th in the NFL, with four of five starters with below average pass blocking grades. Jalen Mayfield on his own has been credited with 9 sacks and 46 pressures allowed. The Falcons running game has also struggled and is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.
This should be a game where the 49ers DL can dominate proceedings. Nick Bosa has been stellar this season, with 14 sacks and 28 QB hits in 13 games. In recent weeks the 49ers have been letting Bosa switch sides more frequently and that flexibility should provide plenty of opportunities for mismatches in this one. But don't be surprised if it is the interior of the 49ers DL that provides the majority of big plays against the shaky Falcons front.
Kittle and Deebo vs the Falcons middle of the field coverage. George Kittle has been dominant the past two weeks, reminding 49er fans just how good he can be as a receiver. Deebo Samuel has been much quieter in recent weeks as a receiver, but through the first half of the season he was lighting up the NFL on his way to being the 2nd leading receiver in yards behind Cooper Kupp.
Both players excel going over the middle of the field and exploiting the slower LBs and safeties. The middle of the field also just happens to be the sweet spot for Jimmy G. With Eli Mitchell ruled out for a second straight game I expect to see the 49ers target the middle of the field a lot in this one, testing the Falcons linebackers and safeties who have not played well this season.
Another favorable matchup for Jimmy G. It'd be nice to enjoy a relaxing win after the nail biter we went through last week.
ReplyDeleteIf this game was played in Atlanta, it's a 10+ win for the Niners. However, the demons of Levi have not yet been exorcised so it's a wait and see kind of game.
ReplyDeleteThe 9er D shuts down Atlanta's Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts. No 9er turnovers and they win 27 to 17.
ReplyDeleteNiners are 10-1 in East Coast games in the past 3 seasons, but, IIRC, 6-5 at home in the following week.
ReplyDeleteMatt Ryan brings it when he faces his old coach. Niners have tended to play to the level of the opposition. The team lacks the angry, vociferous leader who keeps the slackers in line in times of potential letdown.
I put some money on the Niners straight up. On the spread, I bought 3 points to take the Niners to win by a TD or more. Let's get it done, Jimmy.
This is exactly the sort of game the 49ers could easily drop just by taking it easy. They should really win by a wide margin given the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL, despite the record. But... the recipe is all there for a big let down.
DeleteJimmy said the mindset has changed into playoff mode. A win like this could provide more evidence to make that case.
Delete"Since 2018, the San Francisco 49ers are 11-2 on trips to the eastern time zone (including a 2019 trip with a thrilling victory in New Orleans). But the 49ers are only 3-5 in games following an eastern time zone trip. So they've been great on east coast trips (or eastern time zone), but not in the games returning home."
Delete-Marc Adams
The only way I see the 49ers losing this game is by losing the turnover battle by multiple turnovers. If the 49ers take care of the football, they should take care of the Falcons with relative ease.
ReplyDeleteI'd be lying though if I said I wasn't disappointed that Elijah Mitchell's seems to suffer some kind of injury almost every game (knock on wood).
DeleteIt was only a month ago where I felt like Elijah was pushing Deebo as the team's offensive MVP, and not only that, I thought he was also putting himself in position to be in the conversation for NFL OROY, but that's no longer realistic because he can't stay healthy.
I guess the good news is that the more he sits now, the more likely he is to be healthy if they make the postseason, which looks very likely (knock on wood), but boy oh boy, this guy is starting to look a lot like Raheem Mostert in terms of durability. He needs to figure out a way to stay on the field, because when he plays, he's one of the most important weapons on this offense, which is truly something special for a rookie RB in this system!
And yes, I'm also superstitious in case you hadn't noticed.
That's the concerning thing with Mitchell. He just seems to be perpetually knicked up. He's battled through most of the injuries, but if he can't learn to stay healthy he's not someone you can rely on. Fits right into the 49ers backfield really. At least they have him on a rookie 6th round contract for another 3 years, so really anything they get from him is gravy.
DeleteOn a slightly different matter, the 49ers are going to have to think about what they do with Deebo Samuel this offseason. On the surface it looks like a no brainer decision regarding extending him. However... is he a WR or a WR/RB? And if he is a guy you want to keep using as a hybrid, how long can he keep doing it? Most RBs don't live up to their second contract.
> He just seems to be perpetually knicked up.
DeleteYeah, that's why Niners may need the Ferrari back next year to pair with the McLaren since one of the two may be in the shop at any given time during the season.
> 49ers are going to have to think about what they do with Deebo
He'll be paid as a receiver this off-season. Kyle is using him as a RB only because of the depleted RB room.
Agree on both counts Mood, though I also wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan continues using Deebo as a part time RB next year.
DeleteRyans ran 19 Cover 2 sets last week, compared to 12 in all the games together for this season. Expect more Cover 2 tomorrow with no real run threat from the Falcons. Just got to pay attention to Pitts over the middle. He maybe a bit too tall for Williams. Will the LBs be up to the task?
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking with Johnson back, and the Falcons outside WRs not that good, they may not feel the need to provide as much safety help to the CBs this week and rather focus on covering the middle of the field where Pitts and Patterson are the major threats.
DeleteYou may be right. I think that Ryans will still stay with zone coverage, but won't split the safeties that wide as he did last Sunday. He may rotate Tartt/Hufanga post-snap into the middle based on how Pitt and Patt line up.
DeleteI expect Ryans to continue pressure with four linemen against a not-so great Falcons O line, especially targeting the rookie left guard, Mayfield.
So do the 49ers make Deebo the highest paid WR in league history, on the heels of making George Kittle the highest paid TE?
ReplyDeleteI guess these are things you can afford to do when you have a starting QB with multiple years left on his rookie contract!
What we are seeing tonight is what happens to the Patriots when they aren't running football at 5 YPC, and their defense isn't forcing turnovers.
ReplyDeleteCan we at least use this opportunity pump the brakes on the idea that Mac Jones is the 2nd coming of Tom Brady, for crying out loud!
Because I sure don't see it! He's an above average processor with below average physical talent, at least compared to today's modern QB!
In fact, he's lucky he hasn't thrown 5 INT's tonight! I know he's a rookie but, geesh, is this guy lucky or what?
DeleteIt's funny to me how desperate some people are for him to be bad they sweat on every bad throw he has 😂
DeleteYoiu're right Scooter, I'm not giving him enough credit for his screen game. Mac does throw a nice screen pass, to both sides of the field, so I have to give him some credit for that. But if your watching tonight, in the rare game where his OL is actually giving up some pressure for a change, he looks like a typical rookie QB, nothing more, nothing less!
DeleteI just don't see what you are seeing Scooter, and neither do the analytics or advanced stats, BTW!
DeleteLearning curve for Jones -- he'll be fine.
DeleteNE has a good team though, that's for sure. Not Super Bowl good, but good!
ReplyDeleteBTW, the Patriots use of their time outs here in the 4th QTR, are perfect. I hope Kyle is watching and taking notes, because Belichick always manages the clock at an elite level. When you need as much time as possible to score points, call your TO's while you are on defense. It's much easier to control the clock on offense, even without TO's because you can go hurry up, and also spike the ball.
ReplyDeleteAnd before anyone starts touting Mac Jones' passing yards, or his attempted comeback tonight, let me just point out that the Colts were basically playing in prevent defense for nearly the entire 4th QTR.
ReplyDeleteBottom line - In terms of arm talent, every QB in the league, including backups, can throw the football as well, or better, than Mac Jones. That's a FACT! Yes, he's a very good processor, but he is probably already close to his ceiling as far as that goes as well.
More than anything though, the Tom Brady comparisons have to STOP! Jones doesn't have Brady's arm talent, and I highly doubt that he has Brady's mental toughness either. And we know Mac Jones doesn't have the same commitment to his physical fitness as brady, so people need to stop pretending that Mac Jones is the next coming of Tom Brady, or that Mac Jones is even a difference maker at QB, because he's not. Jimmy Garoppolo might be undefeated with the Patriots this season. Cam Newton was totally washed up last season, and Cam didn't have anywhere near the same offensive weapons as Mac either, so let's start keeping it real!
And like I said ... without elite coaching, a dominant rushing attack, a top all-around defense, and a very solid special teams, the Patriots passing offense is likely at the bottom of the league this year. Yes, they have a championship defense, and yes, they have a very good OL and top 5 run game, but without all of those phases working in concert, the Patriots wouldn't be sh_t! The Mac Jones shine is going to wear off once he graduates from "but he's a rookie" status, and that day is coming in another years times, and I am very much looking forward to that day!
ReplyDeleteYou sure are looking forward to that day. 🤣 Never seen someone so desperate for something 🤣🤣
DeleteHaha, is that what it is?
DeleteWhen you're feeling a sense of desperation, it tends to cancel out any chance for empathy, which usually results in being a real jerk!
So maybe you're right, Scooter.
All I know is that I'm a better athlete than Mac Jones, so it's kind of hard for me to see past that one quality.
Oops, there I go again, lol.
DeleteComparing myself to Mac Jones does make me sound a little bit desperate, so let me take that back.
DeleteMy sister is a better athlete than Mac Jones though, so .....
�� �� ��
The one-on-one weekly sit-down conversations between Greg Papa and Shanahan are so informative. Kyle is a great communicator and it's a lot of fun to listen to him explain all the stuff that the media gets wrong about why he does what he does.
ReplyDeleteIt just boggles my mind that fans listen to the crap doled out by hot-take peddlers on the Internet while once can consistent and clear explanations right from the horse's mouth!
Greg Papa is the ultimate soft ball thrower, so of course Kyle is going to come across as a good communicator under those circumstances.
DeleteKyle's biggest problem as a HC isn't his inability to communicate, it's that he's
a) too emotional, and allows his emotions to have too much influence on his decision making.
b) he's stubborn, and I mean incredibly stubborn, just like his dad.
He's a heck of an offensive X's & O's guy, no question about that. He just loses a lot more games than he wins as a HC, mostly due to the issues I mentioned above, and the NFL is a results based business.
Dude,
DeleteUnlike you, I don't go to listen to these interviews to act like a troll and question a coach who likely forgets more football every day that I will know about the game. I go there to understand how Kyle sees things and Papa does a good job asking questions that are close to the one I'd ask.
Normally we are favorite to win this.
ReplyDeleteBut if the Falcons play the same recept that the Colts did against the Pats than we could lose.
If opposing teams are clogging our run game and give Jimmy G hard reads than we are in trouble.
Robber
ReplyDeleteAtlanta's defense: Fox sports ranked Atlanta's defense 24th out of 32 teams. The Colts defense ranked 16th.
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-team-summary-stats?season=2021&category=defense
NFL Defensive Line Rankings: Are Falcons The Worst?!
DeletePro Football Focus ranked all 32 NFL teams' defensive lines, and the list was not kind to the Falcon.
Pro Football Focus ranked the Falcons No 31.
PFF noted the lack of pressure as one of the problem areas for the Falcons:
Cardinals in meltdown mode.
ReplyDeleteAll of a sudden the NFC West champ doesn't seem a foregone conclusion.
DeleteThis makes the 49ers loss to the Seahawks all the more frustrating.