Week 16 Matchups to Watch: 49ers at Titans

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers face the Titans on Thursday Night Football to kick off week 16 and, hopefully, provide 49ers fans with some early Christmas cheer. This game promises to be a much more difficult affair than Sunday's dismantling of the Falcons, as the Titans (who are 9-5 and leading the AFC South) possess one of the better defenses in the NFL. 

Here is what I'll be keeping an eye on.

Strength vs strength - 49ers running game vs Titans run defense. In some respects this is a bit of a matchup nightmare for the 49ers. They turned their season around off the back of their running game, not necessarily due to a lot of explosive runs but more so out of consistently churning out yards. However, the Titans are one of the toughest teams to run against in the NFL, boasting the 2nd fewest rushing yards allowed and 5th lowest average yards per attempt. 

Despite the strength of the Titans run defense, this feels like a game the 49ers should stick with the run to help set up the play action pass and keep the Titans pass rush at bay. With that in mind it will be critical that the 49ers find some success in the running game - even if they fail to rattle off explosive runs they need to find a way to consistently pick up yards and keep themselves in good down and distance situations. 

With Eli Mitchell ruled out again this week, the onus will be on Jeff Wilson Jr to carry the load once more, and no doubt we will see the team try and get some explosive runs through Deebo Samuel.

Good Jimmy vs Titans pass rush and opportunistic defense. While the Titans run game is very stingy, at first glance it may appear the Titans pass defense is a little more vulnerable ranking 20th in terms of passing yards allowed. However, that is more a case of forcing teams to pass due to stingy run defense, which actually plays into the Titans hands. They allow a miserly 6.1 net yards per pass attempt, and have a very dangerous pass rush led by Harold Landry (11 sacks), Jeffery Simmons (7.5 sacks) and Denico Autry (7 sacks). They have also allowed only 20 passing TDs on the season (good for 9th), with 13 intercepts (led by Kevin Byard with 5). This is a very strong defensive unit against the pass and will test the 49ers pass protection and Jimmy G's decision making. 

Jimmy won't have the same kind of time and comfort in the pocket he enjoyed against the Falcons, and we shouldn't expect as good a performance from him as a result. But they will need him to avoid turnovers and continue making clutch plays on key downs to extend drives and score points. A bad Jimmy performance could sink the 49ers quickly in this one. 

Stop the run. This should be the focus for the defense this week - stopping the Titans 4th ranked rushing offense. With Derrick Henry missing you could be forgiven for thinking that should be an easy task. However, the combination of D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard have been on fire over the past four weeks, leading the Titans rushing offense to an average of nearly 170 rushing yards per game over that span. In fact, Foreman and Hilliard both have better rushing averages than Henry on the season. 

It would be a big mistake for the 49ers to take this rushing attack for granted. 

The 49ers run defense has been very good through the second half of the season, allowing under 80 rushing yards per game over the past six games. Part of that has been due to time of possession, but it has also coincided with a much better effort stopping the opponents running game over that period. The 49ers will need another strong run defense effort in this one.  

Takeaways. The turnover battle looks to me like a real deciding factor in this one. Not exactly earth shattering stuff as it is important every week, but this one in particular feels like a game that will ultimately be decided by the turnover battle. 

The good news for the 49ers is that the Titans have been a bit loose with the ball this year, especially since Derrick Henry went down with injury. That has put more pressure on Ryan Tannehill to extend drives and produce points, with mixed results. 

On the season Tannehill has thrown only 14 TDs with as many INTs. Since Henry's injury that ratio is just 4 TD passes against 7 INTs, and Tannehill hasn't thrown a TD pass the past two games. What has to be even more concerning for the Titans is that in the 8 games Derrick Henry played, Tannehill was averaging 250 passing yards per game at 7.6 yards per attempt. Since Henry has been injured that has dropped all the way down to 186 yards per game and 5.9 yards per attempt. 

If the 49ers are able to contain the Titans running game then the pass rush should become a real factor in this one (especially with Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold ruled out for the Titans), and the 49ers should be able to force some turnovers out of Tannehill. Getting points off those turnovers could be the key to victory.