Thursday, January 16, 2025

Target Depth vs. Time to Throw
















Brock is in the upper right hand corner.  Look where Tua is in comparison. Yikes!




  Above chart shows How the QB's Performed in Their First 3 Seasons Before Becoming Eligible for an Extension.

Brock Purdy ranks: -2nd in EPA/Play (Mahomes #1) -2nd in Passer Rating (Mahomes #1) -2nd in Bad Throw % (Burrow #1) -4th in CPOE (behind Burrow, Prescott & Watson)

124 comments:

  1. Out of all these OT's, Membou/Banks/Ersery/Campbell/Milum, the one I feel most confident about sticking at OT is Membou.

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  2. I lean towards Membou, but the question is does he command a top 15 pick? If he rates better then Campbell then a 11 pick is possible, imo.

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    Replies
    1. I think it's possible Membou climbs into the 20's with a strong combine.

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    2. I don't think any of them a worth pick 11.

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    3. Graham is probably the only prospect I love at 11 if he somehow falls.
      That said Membou is worth the pick in my eyes. I love his atheleticism and his build. Deiter Kurtenbach said he could slide in at left guard and switch to tackle when Trent Retires which makes it less of a reach imo.

      He is one of about 5 guys I like there (sans Graham who I dont think will be there).The others are Mike Green, James Pearce, Conerly, Simmons and Starks.

      I would love a slight trade back because of the number of guys I like but would also be happy with any of those guys.

      Delete
  3. Interestingly enough, CBS Sports Chris Trapasso has the Membou going 11 to the 49ers. Membou seems to climbing up in some boards.

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    Replies
    1. I prefer Membou to most of the currently highly touted OT prospects, but at 11 feels like too high a risk to me. The upside is definitely there though. I personally would take Josh Simmons over him.

      Membou, Simmons and Conerly are the three best OT prospects imo, though each have their own concerns. Then Will Campbell.

      Just my opinion, but I feel if you are taking an OT high you want them to have the athletic upside to be a dominant player, and I just don't see that with Campbell. Though I do like Campbell's ability to anchor and to move people in the run game.

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    2. I think that is where Membou is especially nice. You can start him at left guard then move him to tackle when Trent retires. Which I would guess will happen after next season.
      Oddly enough the much maligned Colton McKivitz played decently this past year.
      Though you could delay this by picking a true guard later like Ratlege or Booker... but then you need to get a true tackle next year.

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  4. If Conerly or Simmons can make it to 43 the 49ers could grab the one available then get their DT or Edge at 11. Pierce, Williams, Green, Kenneth Grant or Shemar Stewart could there for the taking.

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    Replies
    1. Weirdly I'm not as much on the bandwagon that the 49ers need to draft an OT high as many. For mine the bigger issue on the OL is the interior.

      Main reason I could see taking an OT round 1 is more for the future when Trent retires.

      But Membou could be a guy they put at LG to start and take over from Trent down the line.

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  5. One draftsite has the 49ers picking Jonah Savaiinea at 11 which is to high for me. He seems to be the consensus top 3 Olineman with Campbell rated the highest. I believe that aside from the their great play and measurable's their level of competition is a factor as well.

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  6. Pro Football Network and PFF have the 49ers selecting Olineman Kevin Banks. PFN noted to the effect that if the 49ers pay Purdy big money, they will build a strong Oline to keep him clean. And also find an Olineman that could fill Trent's place when he's ready to retire.
    My hope is that the 49ers could dip into the 3-4 rd and find another gem like Puni and pick DT or Edge at 11.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, DL at 11 is the way I'm leaning as well.

      Similar to my thoughts on OL, I think DT is more important to improve than DE. Bosa, Floyd, YGM and Sam O will all be back - that's a good enough group if you give them strong play from the DT group. Though I'm all for adding a DE if s really good one is staring them in the face.

      But end of the day so long as the bulk up both the OL and DL with decent investment I'll be pretty happy.

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    2. I've got a feeling Drake Jackson never plays another down for the 49ers.

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    3. Yeah, I think Beal could go the same way too.

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  7. Agree. And, I hate to give them credit, but the Rams seem to have set the bar for drafting of late. They put emphasis on their Dline and it has brought big dividends. If the 49ers D can keep teams consistently scoring under 20pts there's a good chance they can win between 12-14 games in 2025.

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  8. Devin Neal, RB, Kansas is another 3rd round gem. Superb vision with outstanding footwork.

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    Replies
    1. not another 3rd round running back please

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  9. Assuming the 49ers do indeed release Hargrave as expected, I think they need to add two DTs at least this offseason. And at least one has to be a starter - ideally two as I would prefer Collins be moved to a rotational role.

    It's not a great DT FA class, which will make it hard to find a starter there. One lowish cost guy I would consider though is Poona Ford, who just had a fantastic year at the Chargers.

    In the draft, there's obviously a lot of early round options, but if they need to add two guys through the draft then a couple of day 3 options I would strongly consider are CJ West and Jordan Phillips. Both are 1T options with some good athleticism for their size. Put them next to a true 3T drafted in round 1 or 2 and you could have a nice starting tandem for a few years.

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    1. I like what I saw from both West and Phillips. I agree they need Collins as rotational only. 2 iDL through the draft, one starting iDL through F/A and I like adding an edge in round 2 if a good one is available.

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    2. Thoughts on DT Simeon Barrow Jr outta Miami? A whopping 1800 snaps, 16 sacks and an excellent run stuffer.

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    3. Not as high on Barrow as West or Phillips. He's surprisingly stout for his size, but end of the day he's a bit undersized for my liking and at that size isn't as disruptive in the backfield as I'd like to see.

      Barrow feels more like a potential solid depth guy to me.

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  10. Utah State, WR, Jalen Royals is a day 2 yac attack built for this offense. Kinda flying under the radar right now.

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  11. The most common statement I hear on this site regarding the 9ers #11 pick is: I like this guy or that guy but not at #11. I think there is a decent chance the 9ers FO might feel the same way. Because of that it wouldn't surprise me if they move back once or twice in the first round. A late first and 3 picks in the 2nd round sounds pretty good to me.

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    Replies
    1. Trading down in the first round from 11 might be challenging. Maybe a team like the Colts wants Warren and they get wind that another team is looking to get above them for him.

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    2. OC, imo the 49ers will be lucky if a guy is there at 11 that is a blue chip prospect at a position of value and need. So yes, a trade down would make sense to me, if someone is willing.

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  12. 5 Prospects with 'Wrestling State Champion' in their bios...

    DT Davin Vann
    DT Chidozie Nwankwo
    DT Nash Hutmacher
    DE Gabe Jacas
    OG Dylan Fairchild

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  13. Jalon Walker is reportedly believed to be the “scariest” true LB to enter the NFL Draft since Micah Parsons.

    Some NFL scouts reportedly believe Walker has “levels of Micah Parsons” to his game and is “worth” a Top-8 pick.

    Walker is also reportedly believed to be ”on the same level” as Roquan Smith was as a prospect coming out of Georgia.

    Some players from Texas reportedly believe Walker is the “scariest LB they’ve ever faced” in their football career’s after playing him twice this season.

    The Bulldogs LB can COMPLETELY change an NFL LB’s room 🔥

    If Walker goes 8 there's a real possibility Graham could be on the board at 11.

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    Replies
    1. If Graham is there at 11 the 49ers should run to the podium. Looks like exactly what they need.

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  14. Miami OT/OG Jalen Rivers is another player to keep an eye on at the Senior Bowl.

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  15. Darius Alexander is another day 3 DT I will be keeping an eye on - will be at the Senior Bowl.

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    Replies
    1. Aeneas Peebles, 3t, Virginia Tech is a 3rd rounder to keep an eye on at Senior Bowl too.

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    2. Oh definitely. One of the best pass rushing DTs in college football.

      But I am expecting the 49ers to add a capable 3T by the end of round 2, so I'm thinking the later round guy should be more a 1T.

      Delete
  16. QB Matthew Stafford is AWFUL when playing in snow games:

    • 1-8 record
    • 54.6 completion %
    • 11 interceptions
    • 76.0 passer rating in these games.

    It's expected to snow in Philly...😬

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  17. I heard one guy floating Campbell as a C if his arms are deemed too short for a tackle. Apparently he's incredibly intelligent and has a good idea of who will be coming vs not coming. You cant draft a C at 11 but it was an interesting thought.

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    1. I like converting a day 3 player from NDST, Grey Zabel from OT to Center.

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    2. I still think they'll address center in FA and then use a later round pick for a guy to provide depth/ develop. Shanahan hasn't shown any willingness to let a rookie center start.

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    3. Yeah, they desperately need an upgrade there.

      Given they want the Center calling the protections, this is an area you can overspend a little bit on imo.

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  18. DJ Reed is gonna be our starting Ni next year isn't he?

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    1. I don't think they can afford him. But if they did, I think Demo would remain slot and Demo and Reed would start outside in base, with Green coming in on nickel.

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    2. Works for me. How much you think he'll command on the open market?

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    3. He'll be one of the top paid FAs. He's quietly been one of the best CBs in the NFL the past few seasons.

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  19. Rumor mill:

    Umanmielen enters the final games of the season with 9.5 sacks and had his way to the tune of a multi-sack game against the Georgia offensive line. Last year, Umanmielen had seven sacks while playing at Florida. In speaking with sources at a number of different teams, there was a big variety in grades. One NFC general manager had Umanmielen as a first-rounder. Another AFC director of player personnel had him as a backup for the fourth round. Two other directors of college scouting had Umanmielen as a second- or third-round pick.


    “He’s a second-rounder for me beacuse his character is [bad],” said an NFC director of college scouting. “He’s better as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s a good looking kid on the hoof, but more quick than explosively sudden.”

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    1. If he has character issues I don't want him. But I like his skill set.

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    2. After Foster I haven't seen them draft or sign a questionable character player.

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  20. Shemar Stewart or Walter Nolen at 11? No trade down available.

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    1. Nolen, and not even close in my book. And not because I think Nolen is outstanding or worthy of pick 11. Just don't see what the fuss is with Stewart.

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    2. Bruglar has him as a top 15 player.

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    3. A lot of people have him high. I have seen some people argue he could end up top 5. I simply don't see it. Nice enough athletic tools, sure, but that's about it.

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    4. Reminds me of when Walker shot up boards after the combine, but Bruglar is one of the few I respect. I would take Nolen over him as well as I don't think the Niners are in a position to gamble. They have to hit this draft out of the park and then do it again next year if they want to contend for SB's.

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    5. Yes, I suspect Stewart will get some steam following the combine too. Probably not as athletic as Walker, but clearly very good for his size.

      If you're convinced you can coach him up then sure, but personally I prefer taking guys high that have both the athletic gifts and body of work behind them.

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    6. "athletic gifts and body of work behind them" worked out well for them in last years draft. I suspect they stay the course in that strategy.

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    7. Im not a fan of either at 11 tbh.... but I am a bit intrigued by the idea of doubling up. Having a combo of Nolan and TJ Sander or Norman - Lott would make for an explosive interior.

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    8. I'd be surprised if they didn't double dip at iDL high and day 2 or 3.

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    9. Yep, double dipping would be a good idea.

      Imo though they should aim for complementary styles, not similar styles. Nolen and Sanders/ Norman Lott would add some pass rush juice, but the team would remain susceptible against the run.

      There are some good looking 1T types with enough juice to fit a penetrating scheme.

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    10. I think Kenneth Grant can play the 3t role don't you Scooter? I don't think he's just a 1t.

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    11. Yes I do. And I think Harmin can too. They are DT 2a and 2b in my book.

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  21. Jackson Hawes, TE, Georgia Tech looks like the blocking TE the 49ers need to replace Woerner on day 3, Round 6.

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  22. Lions couldn't make it back to the NFC Championship game. Eagles trying to make it. Green Bay trying to get there. Meanwhile we went to three straight and four of five.

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    Replies
    1. I like our chances for next season- Lions schedule is brutal too

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  23. Lions window is slowly closing. Now they find out the issues with success. They most likely will lose both coordinators . You will need to pay your stars. Also, the whole Dan Campbell shtick works great when you’re the underdog . It may be tough now!

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  24. Every time I look into potential centers in the draft I come back to thinking Jake Majors is the best one available and would be a good late round 2/ round 3 pick. Yet I am hard pressed to find any site giving him better than a round 4 grade. What am I missing/ over estimating about him?

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    Replies
    1. I prefer Jared Wilson for our offense but I think you would need to redshirt him.

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    2. Being the best available center in a really weak class would be the missing component, Scooter.

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    3. Even then, I think he is a day 2 prospect.

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  25. Ben Johnson is good but Jameson Williams isn't throwing the ball with my season on the line. 0% chance. One of the dumbest calls I've ever seen.

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    Replies
    1. 100% - only exception would be if it was a WR w experience in the role and understands if it isn't wiiiiide open, run or toss it out of bounds........... he threw it into triple coverage.......... brutal decision, but Johnson allowed it to happen.

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  26. Go Rams- yep............. dislike Philly way more....... nobody nearly as much as Seattle tho!

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    1. Rams D-Line looking good. Verse is disruptive. They have done a good job rebuilding their D.

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    2. Now it's our time to rebuild our DL where the draft is the strongest.

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    3. Game over. I hope Washington beats Philly.

      Razor - Yeah....we have to prioritize the trenches in this draft. That Drake Jackson pick, looking worse by the minute.

      As a general rule, I would stay away from USC players. Soft like their coach :)

      Delete
  27. I think the plan could be to trade down and select Mike Green, Edge, Marshall and then Derrick Harmon, DL, Oregon with their next pick.

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    Replies
    1. Those two have the potential to win starting jobs in TC, making it back to back strong drafts.

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    2. Let's say Pittsburg at 21 wants a quarterback and trades up with us. We could take Green at 21 and use the Steeler assets if necessary to target Harmon towards the end of round 1 or top of round 2.

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    3. Razor, with his size and way he plays, do you have any concerns about Green's longevity in the NFL?

      I fear he may end up spending more time unavailable than a team is willing to accept. He really throws himself into blockers.

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    4. I wouldn't be concerned about his size. He is 6'4" 250 and I expect he will add weight by the combine... though by looking at him I expect it will need to be mostly added in the lower half.

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    5. Same size as Verse isn't he, Scooter?

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    6. I'd be shocked if he is the same playing weight as Verse.

      My guess is he tries to bulk up for the combine to be as close to 250 lbs as possible but then doesn't test. Then drops weight for his pro day and tests then.

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  28. Mechi Becton is earning himself a $20 million a year deal somewhere.

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    Replies
    1. Good example of how role and fit matter. Moved him to OG in a gap/ man scheme and reaping the benefits.

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  29. Jimmy G is the QB with the lowest passer rating in QB Postseason Performance since 2018. Stafford and Mahomes shine when January rolls around, with Brock Purdy ranking 3rd in EPA/Play behind them.

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  30. Keondre Jackson, DB, Illinois St. accepted his invite to the Senior Bowl. Day 3 steal for me.

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  31. What a great weekend of football. If the 9ers weren't going to be around this weekend at least there were exciting games. Now the cherry on top of the sundae would be a win for my Irish. Number 1 for rooting interest and secondly for my college playoff pool. A Irish win will make me a cool $200.00 Go IRISH

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    Replies
    1. Didn't know you were an irish fan. I grew up one going all the way back to Ara Parseghian.

      Delete
  32. DJ Giddens is the apple of my eye when it comes to rb's in this draft.

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  33. To me, Mike Green is the closest to Jarred Verse. An NFL ready edge rusher with heavy hands.

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    Replies
    1. Razor,
      At what number would you draft Green, and would it be to big of a gamble to pass on Green and see if Umanmielen drops to 43?

      Delete
    2. I really like the way Green plays, but I can't agree with the Verse comparison. Both aggressive and violent, but very different players.

      Verse was a hulked up power edge who looked every bit the 6'4" 255-260 lbs he was listed at by Florida. Green is a twitched up player that relies on his speed and quicks but looks much smaller than what Marshall list him at. I would not be surprised if he is closer to 6'2" than 6'4", and to find out he played closer to 230 lbs in 2024. He is the same size as the Marshall LBs.

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    3. Can't wait for the combine to get the official specs on these guys.

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    4. I was going to say he looks to have added some weight since his va days and his upper body looks pretty rocked up. Given that, I'd be very interested seeing his height at the combine. If he is 6'4" I expect he will weigh close to 250... If he is 6'2" I expect closer to 230.

      Delete
  34. Active NFL Coach Playoff Win %:

    1. Zac Taylor (.714)
    1t. Dan Quinn (.714)
    2. Kyle Shanahan (.667)
    3. Andy Reid (.628)
    4. Sean McVay (.615)

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  35. A little surprising that Walter Football has Chicago taking Kenneth Grant at 10 and leaving Mason Graham available at 11. Of course, all current draft boards will likely change before April. But I would love Graham if he's still there at 11.

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    Replies
    1. To me Grant has the higher ceiling of the two. I would not be surprised if after the Combine, Graham falls to 11. If his arms are short than 32" do you think a GM like Trent Baalke is going to draft him?

      Delete
  36. Man, 49ers had really better hope Saleh doesn't get a HC job.. and that he accepts the 49ers offer for DC. Looks like Ulbrick, Allen and Anarumo are all off the table.

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    1. As soon as the interview of Staley I knew he was their ace in the hole should Saleh commit HC'ing suicide and take the Jaguars job.

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    2. I wonder if the fall back is Staley.......... or outside of the bldg- Bradley a consideration, or someone else? I wanted to hear more about Aranamu........ but Cincy's D has been solid over the years- absent this one.

      Delete
  37. Graham's body of work should be the deciding factor over his arm length. But I would agree that Grant may have a higher ceiling when all is said and done.

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    Replies
    1. Oh, I agree AES. Don't misunderstand me. I'm pointing out just one GM that operates that way but there are others that absolutely will take a player off their board if he fails to meet their measurement requirements for that position no matter the body of work in college.

      Delete
  38. Omarion Hampton or Kaleb Johnson, which running back is the better fit schematically?

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  39. Measurable's have been the bane of those types of GMs. These types passed on Brady and more recently Purdy. They have beautiful sculptureed athletes standing on the sidelines.

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  40. Mike Green's date of birth seems to be a secret but I'm betting he's 2 years younger than Verse who's 24.

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    Replies
    1. Mike Green when at Virginia was listed at 6'3", 215 lbs.

      https://www.google.com/imgres?q=mike%20green%20virginia&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2F.image%2Fc_fill%2Cw_1440%2Car_16%3A9%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%2Cg_auto%2FMTkyMzExMTEzOTI3MzcwMjg2%2Fmike-green.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fcollege%2Fvirginia%2Ffootball%2Fsophomore-mike-green-no-longer-active-with-virginia-football-team&docid=8w6iBxv-ETVawM&tbnid=FwNJN9oPZjjjAM&vet=12ahUKEwjijoS7rIWLAxU7XWwGHd_VO2EQM3oECBkQAA..i&w=1440&h=810&hcb=2&ved=2ahUKEwjijoS7rIWLAxU7XWwGHd_VO2EQM3oECBkQAA

      Delete
    2. At Marshall... 6'4" 248 lbs... don't know about anyone else, but this doesn't look 30 lbs heavier to me.

      https://www.google.com/imgres?q=mike%20green%20marshall&imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FgwhsbaWP9ec%2Fhq720.jpg%3Fsqp%3D-oaymwEhCK4FEIIDSFryq4qpAxMIARUAAAAAGAElAADIQj0AgKJD%26rs%3DAOn4CLCPwOl4UxUPyJFzo7Vrpeai160lAQ&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DgwhsbaWP9ec&docid=2pfK35i6DoaHdM&tbnid=QrDrw0vAunlZyM&vet=12ahUKEwjin8HGrIWLAxUIXWwGHSnMBz0QM3oECGgQAA..i&w=686&h=386&hcb=2&ved=2ahUKEwjin8HGrIWLAxUIXWwGHSnMBz0QM3oECGgQAA

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    3. Yea, if he's only 215 lbs., me and a lot of other teams will be out on Green. That's a huge discrepancy.

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    4. DraftBuzz, has P. Umanmielen listed as the 2nd top Edge behind Abdul Carter. Umanmielen is 6'4" 255 lbs. DraftBuzz has Green as the 7th rated Edge. But, obviously their ratings like others are subjective.

      Delete
    5. Big variety in grades for Umanmielen. One NFC general manager had Umanmielen as a first-rounder. Another AFC director of player personnel had him as a backup for the fourth round. Two other directors of college scouting had Umanmielen as a second- or third-round pick. “He’s a second-rounder for me beacuse his character is [bad],” said an NFC director of college scouting. “He’s better as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s a good looking kid on the hoof, but more quick than explosively sudden.”

      Delete
  41. TreYveon Henderson will need a role similar to Gibbs and paired with a power runner like Montgomery.

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  42. Xavier Watts - best ballhawking safety in this draft class, easy top 50 grade. I'd be very happy taking him at 43.

    Jack Kiser - one of the surest tacklers in this LB draft class, day 3 grade.

    Rylie Mills - Another example of the depth at iDL in this draft as Mills is easily a day 3 target.

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  43. What an opening drive by Notre Dame!

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  44. Rasheen Ali the rb from Marshall that the Ravens drafted last year measured exactly what the school had him listed as at the combine as far as height and weight.

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  45. Mustafa - In 2024 allowed 7 completions on 20 targets (per Pro Football Reference) - the only player in the NFL to start 10+ games and allow less than 40% completions.

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  46. I haven't seen too much from Jack Sawyer tonight. He has an opportunity to show out with ND now having to throw more.

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  47. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐬 𝐒𝐈𝐗𝐓𝐇 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐥 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 #NFL 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐟𝐭 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐅𝐁𝐒 𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐥𝐞.

    Sunday talent wins.

    2025 Ohio State (Predicted)
    2024 Michigan 13
    2023 Georgia 10
    2022 Georgia 15
    2021 Alabama 10
    2020 LSU 14

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    Replies
    1. I wonder what the hit rate is on those drafted players?

      NFL talent wins games in college, but I suspect being on winning teams also gets some guys noticed and over drafted.

      Delete
  48. Maryland NT Jordan Phillips is a player to watch in the Shrine Bowl. Could be a 5th round steal.

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    Replies
    1. Definitely. Very keen to see how he, CJ West and Darius Alexander look. There's a bunch of day 2 edge guys I am looking forward to seeing how they perform too.

      Delete
  49. Kevin Winston Jr. is the best run support safety in the 2025 NFL Draft.

    He has as many career forced fumbles as he does missed tackles (2) and has incredible instincts, rarely getting caught off guard but he's only logged 694 career snaps. Top 100 player for me.

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2025 Post NFL Combine Mock Draft

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