Tampa Bay ranks 30th in DVOA against tight ends which equates to 31st in receiving yards allowed to TEs this season. Meantime, Kittle enters this week leading all TEs in receiving yards per game. Purdy ranks 3rd in the NFL in PFF passing grade against zone coverage, which bodes well for the 49ers QB given he'll be going up against a Buccaneers' defense that runs zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Shanahan needs to run the football and it sounds as if CMC will get the bulk of those carries. If the 49ers want another divisional title they'll likely need to get to 11 wins, which means they can afford to lose no more than 2 games of their remaining 9. This cannot be one of those games. I like the 49ers over the Buccaneers by the score of 34-14. Go Niners!
49ers inactives: QB Josh Dobbs (third QB) CB Charvarius Ward WR Chris Conley DT Kevin Givens TE Brayden Willis OL Ben Bartch
Based on warmups, it appears Malik Mustapha will start at safety alongside Ji'Ayir Brown. Mustapha has been dealing with a calf issue but is playing.
ReplyDeleteAlso looks like Renardo Green opposite Deommodore Lenoir at cornerback in base.
Run the ball, control the clock and the game is four quarters long.
ReplyDeleteI wish he would have went for it on 4th and 3 instead of a FG.
DeleteI think so too.
DeleteRazor / Under
DeleteTrue, but hindsight is 20-20....Even for a HC that's a Genius.
Special teams is our downfall again. Shocker.
ReplyDeleteMoody is starting to give me a headache.
ReplyDeletePurdy is just fabulous.
ReplyDeleteObviously Moody wasn’t ready to come back.
ReplyDeleteDeebo needs to stop blaming his teammates, and start looking at his HC, who is not getting it done in 2024! Poor decision after poor decision, after poor play calling, is what has left this team looking like a shell of it's former self!
ReplyDeleteOh, and Nick Bosa is WAY overrated!
DeleteBa ba bullshit.
DeleteOne of the sloppiest 4th qtrs I've seen the 49ers play in a while. But Moody went from zero to hero and Purdy was money. I'd like to see Pearsall get a few more passes thrown at him going forward.
ReplyDeleteGritty win in the heat, sun and humidity.
ReplyDeleteA W is a W....TB is a tough team. I would have liked to see a heavier/stacked DL at some points to stop the run.... Green held up well outside.....
DeleteSpecial teams cost the Niners 16 points. The offense was very good against a tough defense. The defense as well except for the 3 face masks on the last drive.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if there will be any punishment for Debo. There should be.
STs are a disaster.
DeleteAnd what was Deebo thinking? Not how a team leader should act.
Dear Coach Shanahan, it's time to stop running Deebo; especially on end-arounds and sweeps -- he doesn't have it anymore. And you don't have to run up the gut for one yard on first down in the redzone.
ReplyDeleteFor all his excellent stats, Purdy's had many more poor throws this season -- many of then high, and he's consistently missed seeing open receivers. He hasn't improved this year.
Do you think some of Purdy’s slight reduction in efficiency is due to not having some of his receivers all year?
Delete* Purdy gave Moody another chance to finally comes thru with a butt ugly win, after the 9er D gave up another 4th quarter lead. But A WIN is a WIN, I'll take it.
ReplyDelete* QUESTION: Are the 9ers playing like a playoff team???
THE GOOD: Purdy, Kittle, CMC, Jennings and Pearsall
THE BAD: The 9er D still can't stop the run.
THE UGLY: ST, Moody, Deebo and penalties.
* WITH THE FIRST PICK IN THE 2025 DRAFT: IMHO, JL needs to draft a DT that can stop the run!
GEEP,
DeleteI think they have to go with BPA at DT or OT. They need both positions. Hopefully they can get a good C in the 2nd round.
above post was OC
DeleteOC
DeleteIf you recall...We've had that conversation before! lol
* I'm all for drafting an OT in 2025! Unfortunately, the prevailing 9er philosophy isn't compatible with what we want. If JL draft one, it will likely be a day 3 OT.
* Fortunately, the 2025 draft has an abundance of DT's. While It's too early to pick the BPA DT, if I had to pick the top 3 DT's today, assuming the 9ers make it to the post season....I'd take DT Deone Walker, Kentucky...Walter Nolan, Ole Miss, or Tyleik Williams, Ohio St. * Deone Walker, Kentucky will likely be gone by the time the 9ers are on the board.
* Who would be your top 3?
GEEP,
DeleteI do watch a lot of college football but I watch it purely as a fan. I don't start breaking down player evaluation until after the 49ers season is over.
OldCoach
DeleteWhile I do watch college football as a fan, I also watch and try to identify the top 3-4 players that fit a 9er position of need in the next draft. Then I track their progress during the season as it, IMO, will correlate to how Coachable they are as a pro.
I hope I didn't jinx Moody. Earlier this week someone posted good news Moodys back. I replied is that good news or bad news his replacements were 100%. I was half kidding but maybe I should have kept my mouth shut.
ReplyDeleteGrades
WR A+
TE A+
RB B- (its hard to grade RBs when there are no holes
QB B- in the first half A+ in the 2nd half
OL C-/D+ run blocking was horrible pass blocking wasn't too much better the pocket was collapsing around BP
Defense
D line B- not enough sacks too many yards after contact on runs
LB B same as DL too many yards after contact
DB A versus the pass B- versus the rum same criticism as DL/LB
ST F------- If KS doesn't fire his ST coordinator this week he should have his head examined. I hope they have plans for D. Luter as a CB because he is killing the team on STs.
OC
DeleteRE: A Center in 2025 draft......Who do you like?
Coach,
DeleteI said a few days ago that Moody was due to return today. While he left 9 pts on the field with his 3 missed field-goals, he still kicked the winning FG. I'll call it a wash even though he made me snatched up a couple of Tylenol 🤬
The problem with firing the special teams coach is that you still have the same players on special teams. I think part of the issue is that we spent all our money on the stars and little is left for backups.
DeleteIn my opinion coaches get fired too often. It’s often just a way of deflecting from the real problem. Have the Jets gotten better since they fired Salah? In fact, maybe they’ve gotten worse.
Felix
Delete* While I agree with you about..."The problem with firing the special teams coach is that you still have the same players on special teams."
* But I,take issue with you on "we spent all our money on the stars and little is left for backups."
IMO, the problem is that injuries to 9er starters, as well as the rotation players, have forced KS to use players that would have played on ST, to be starters and rotation player. And that has resulted in players that should be on the PS, playing on ST.
* While we all agree the rookies have stepped up and picked
up the slack. How many of them would be playing on ST, had
there been no injuries to the starters and rotation players?
GEEP,
DeleteThe two ST players who killed us today were Moody and Luter. Moody was a 3rd round pick and Luter has been a ST player for half of last year and all of the games this year. In Fact Luter was a huge part of the 49ers losing the SB. Neither of these players are PS players but it may have been true in earlier games.
Have to admit I’m dumbfounded about our STs. A 3rd round pick missing three makeable FGs? At some point his coach has to take the hit for that. And Luter’s second major screwup? I’m throwing up my hands with that unit. What a shame.
DeleteYou could be right. Actually we both could be right.
DeleteThe Niners found a way to win, definitely wasn't pretty in the fourth quarter but they got it done. Moody, come on man. Deebo what's up?
ReplyDeleteDeebo took his team captain leadership a little to far. But it definitely got Moody's attention.
DeleteNever apologize for a win.
ReplyDeleteJared Goff without a run game: 5 INTs in 2.5 quarters. What did I tell you? Goff will not beat the 49ers if they can stop their rushing attack.
ReplyDelete"If" could be another way of saying, TBD.
DeleteExcept for a couple of runs from Bucky Ervin, the 49ers did a'ight against the Bucs running game. But the 49ers D frontline are not where they need to be right now. But like I've been saying, I expect them to improve in the 2nd half of the season.
Razor
DeleteWhile it is a concern, the 9er D stopping the Lion's RB's is not why I question if the 9ers can beat Goff and the Lions?
My greatest concern is mistakes by the 9er ST, followed by the offense not finishing drives, scoring in the red zone and giving up a 4th quarter lead.
Brock Purdy became only the second quarterback since 1950 to have a passer rating of 100 or higher in 10 of his first 15 career road starts.
ReplyDeleteThe other, Patrick Mahomes (11).
That's nice. But you know my metric when compared to Mahomes 🏆🏆🏆
ReplyDeleteWell hopefully the rest of the team will play up to Purdy’s standard so we can will some super bowls. However, what Mahomes has accomplished as part of a team has nothing to do with Purdy’s accomplishments.
DeleteI weigh teams and QBs according to their SB wins. At this point, Dilfor has more SB wins than Purdy. That's my personal metric and I'm sticking to it 😉
DeleteBrock Purdy was blitzed on 27 of his 42 dropbacks (64.3%!) vs. Tampa Bay. Purdy was 18-22, 274 yards, 2 TD, and a 148.9 passer rating when blitzed.
ReplyDeleteFor the second consecutive week, Renardo Green was the highest-graded player on the 49ers defense. Looks like he's earned the outside CB in Ni this year and base next.
ReplyDeleteHopefully they can sign Lenoir that would give them an elite pair. Then they have to find a NB, ever since Jimmy Ward left they have struggled at finding a 3rd CB. My real concern is paying BP 60 mill or more per season will make it impossible for the 49ers to resign any starters or any starting level FAs.
DeleteCertainly paying Purdy $60 M will have a big impact on the rest of the team but the reason QBs make so much is because they are the most important player. I think it’s well worth it. I wouldn’t want a QB with a midrange salary over Purdy.
DeleteMy problem with how they pay QBs is whoever the latest top 12 QB to sign is he is given the #1 salary. No one can tell me that Dak Presscott, Trevor Lawerence or Jordan love are 3 of the top 4 QBs in the NFL. Mahomes gets an avg of 45 mill while those 3 are avg 60 mill. If Mahomes is worth 45 mill, I believe that BP is worth 30 to 35 mill. Paying BP 60 mill of more next year could shut the 9ers SB window for 3 years or more. What should JL do? IDK thats why he gets the big bucks
DeleteOldCoach
DeleteI think we all know that BP is going to get paid! So any future 9er success will depend on the success of their draft picks.
But to your point, I agree. "Hopefully they can sign Lenoir that would give them an elite pair. Then they have to find a NB."
* I know you said, "you don't start breaking down player evaluation until after the 49ers season is over." But you may
want to remember the name Andrew Mukubu, a DB that
transferred from Clemson to Texas. He can pay S or CB , including NB. I have him going in the 3rd RD. * I have the 9ers drafting DT in Rd #1, EDGE in Rd #2 and DB or LB in Rd #3.
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Andrew-Mukuba-S-Clemson
GEEP,
DeleteI wrote that name down
OC
Delete👍
I recall a time when people said making JG the highest paid QB would cripple the team. It didn't.
Delete49ers have outgained their opponents by 979 yards so far this season--an average of +108.8 per game.
ReplyDelete5-4 record is about the worst they could've done with that stat.
I believe that's the biggest plus-differential in the league. (BAL is +723 yards in 10 games, for a +72.3 avg)
FELIX: concerning whether I think Purdy’s slight reduction in efficiency is due to not having some of his receivers all year?
ReplyDeleteDefinitely not having McCaffree; especially, since he often overloked Mason for easy completions even when he was open. But when you read the advanced stats like David Lombardi cranks out, I don't know that Purdy's overall efficiency has decreased. His weakness this season has been the frequent stretches where he plays poorly. I've never seen such an excellent QB play so inconsistently -- it's the topic of most of his press appearences.
The 49ers allowed 12 pressures vs the Buccaneers (PFF):
ReplyDelete• Jake Brendel: 3
• Trent Williams: 3
• Colton McKivitz: 2
• Dominick Puni: 2
• Aaron Banks: 1
The line allowed 11 of the 12 pressures and did not get credited with giving up a sack
Razor
Delete* A couple of surprises; TW giving up 3 and Aaron Banks only giving up only one. I'd expect that to be reversed?
"IF" that's a trend with TW, it raises the question is his age now catching up with him?
GEEP,
DeleteI have a theory. I think there was confusion on blitz pick ups and stunt responsibility. Confusion can cause doubt and doubt causes slowed reaction. I think yesterday was a group issue not a TW issue.
Heat and humidity certainly is a factor.
DeleteOC / Razor
ReplyDeleteI suspect you're both correct! That's why I'll watch to see if it's an anomaly or a trend? But what ever the reason, the O-line protection needs to improve if the 9ers expect to beat GB, the Bills or the Lions!
If they don't, IMO, Arizona will win the division, not the 9ers.
Yards per route run, NFL leaders:
ReplyDelete1. Justin Jefferson: 2.82
2. Jauan Jennings: 2.66
3. George Pickens: 2.59
4. Ja'Marr Chase: 2.54
5. Terry McLaurin: 2.42
NFL week 10: MN Football: Miami 23 VS Rams 15...Rams = 4W - 5L
ReplyDeleteNFL week 11: 9ers VS Seahawks.....Arizona = Bye week
If 9ers beat Seattle at Levi, 9ers and Arizona will be tied at 6W - 4L
Somewhat old news but I don’t see it mentioned here: Two days ago the Niners signed CB Nick McCloud, formerly with the Giants, to the PS. Kyle Posey suggested the reason might be to replace Luter on ST. Don’t know what they’d do then. Release Luter? Thought they thought highly of him at CB. Maybe not anymore if it’s true, I suppose.
ReplyDeleteSorry, signed him yesterday.
DeleteGeo,
DeletePrior to this season McCloud had been a pretty good CB as well as a very good ST player. Regardless of whether Luter is on his way out or not you can never have too many quality CBs
Releasing Samuel Womack and keeping Darell Luter Jr. seems like a pretty stupid move so far.
DeleteTime will tell if Luter turns into an impact player.
We owe Mike McDaniels a big box of chocolates and some cigars. Thanks for beating the Rams!
ReplyDeleteI predict Dre Greenlaw's return against the Chicago Bears.
ReplyDeleteI'm down with that.
ReplyDeletePer Lombardi.
ReplyDeleteSays that the incident between Deebo and Pepper has been "squashed out." Btw, Deebo was one of the 1st players on the field to congratulate Moody's winning FG.
No harm, no foul.
DMO has signed a 5 year extension worth $92M according to Jeremy Fowler.
ReplyDeleteGood deal.
Delete