Friday, March 17, 2023

Evaluating the 49ers First Week of FA


By Scooter_McG

The first wave of free agency is now done and the 49ers have seen a lot of player movement in that period, both coming and going, as well as some key retentions. Here are my initial thoughts on the 49ers moves in free agency so far. 

Additions

The 49ers made a big splash in the opening hours of the FA legal tampering period with the signing of one of the premier FAs available in DT Javon Hargrave, to a 4-year, $84M deal. This was a move that came as a surprise to most - not because the 49ers were aggressive or that they went after a DT, but because the general thinking was the 49ers would not have the cap space to make such a big signing this offseason. 

The addition of Hargrave to the 49ers DL has the potential to take a good unit to an elite level. DL coach Kris Kocurek has done an excellent job finding solid pass rush complements to Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead the past two years, but there is no doubt there was still a big drop off in talent and production from those two players. Hargrave adds a third elite player to the DL unit to help take the heat off Bosa and Armstead and add stress to opposing offenses. 

Other additions the 49ers have made are QB Sam Darnold to a 1-year, incentive laden deal, CB Isaiah Oliver to a 2-year deal, and DE Clelin Ferrell to a 1-year deal. 

Darnold will provide a solid option to push Trey Lance while Purdy recovers from elbow surgery, and is a player that can keep the team afloat in case of injuries. He has obviously had his struggles in his first five years in the NFL, but last year he showed some signs of progress and as a former 3rd overall pick he has the physical talents required to be a starting NFL QB. Given the injury issues at QB last season, having a capable veteran like Darnold on the books was a must.

Oliver is an exciting addition to compete for the nickel CB job. He's a long and athletic CB that has some inside/ outside flexibility, though inside is where he found a home with the Falcons and where he will likely find himself with the 49ers. He's an aggressive player that loves to play physically both against the pass and run, which is a perfect fit for the 49ers defense. 

Ferrell is an interesting addition and one I had expected. The former 4th overall pick was something of a bust with the Raiders. He's not as great an athlete as you might typically expect for someone draft so high, but he is a smart player with quality length and size for the position and brings high effort and leadership traits. In short, he is exactly the type of reclamation project that Kocurek has had success with in recent years and is a player I expect will reinvent himself under Kocurek's tutelage and playing alongside the likes of Bosa, Armstead and Hargrave.

Retained

The 49ers re-signed all of their ERFAs and RFAs, though some were signed to deals outside the ERFA/ RFA tag (e.g. McKivitz, Givens and Flannigan-Fowles). McKivitz figures to play a prominent role in the competition at RT while Givens has proven himself to be a valuable rotational DT. Jauan Jennings also comes back to add depth to the WR unit.

Before the FA legal tampering period began the 49ers announced the re-signing of starting FS Tashaun Gipson who will be coming back on a relatively cheap deal at just $2.9M which is a bargain relative to his level of play last season. Gipson was tremendous last year and his combination with Hufanga gave the 49ers one of the best safety tandems in the NFL. 

Importantly, the 49ers were able to re-sign starting center Jake Brendel to a 4-year deal despite interest from other teams. While Brendel is not an elite player by any means, he was surprisingly solid in his first year as a starter last season and helps provide stability along the interior of the 49ers OL. 

The 49ers are also bringing back DT TY McGill on a 1-year deal, who impressed in a rotational role after being brought in mid-season last year. With the addition of Hargrave and retention of Givens and McGill, the 49ers now have a lot of talent and depth at DT, with a focus on penetration up the middle.  

Outgoings

The 49ers are saying goodbye to some solid starting calibre players in Mike McGlinchey, Jimmy Garoppolo, Dan Brunskill, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Moseley, Charles Omenihu, Samson Ebukam and Azeez Al-Shaair. A few depth pieces are also on the move in Hassan Ridgeway, Maurice Hurst and Tarvarius Moore. 

That is a lot of starting calibre talent leaving Santa Clara, and at first glance such heavy losses would seem to suggest the 49ers may struggle to replace so many good players. But looking at the players they are losing two things stand out to me: (1) while they are solid players, they are not star players - they aren't players that make the team around them better, and (2) only two of them (McGlinchey and Ward) were clear cut starters - while Jimmy G, Al-Shaair, Ebukam, Omenihu and Brunskill all played a lot of snaps last year, they were either backups or rotational guys, while Moseley missed almost the entire season and Lenoir stepped up in his place. 

The 49ers have also already replaced Ward (Oliver) and Jimmy G (Darnold) with cheaper players that both have the talent to be capable starters in the NFL. The addition of Ferrell also helps soften the blow of losing Ebukam and Omenihu - in fact Ferrell is a more talented player than either of them and comes to the 49ers with similar levels of pass rush efficiency and productivity as they had prior to joining the 49ers.

And in losing so many starting calibre players, the 49ers stand to gain in terms of compensatory picks. In the case of McGlinchey and Jimmy G, they both represent players that are being signed to very large contracts (though in terms of the QB market, Jimmy G's contract is now just middle of the road) that should qualify for 3rd round comp picks. The addition of Hargrave cancels one of those out (expected to be Jimmy G), but they should still get a 3rd rounder back for McGlinchey.  

Bottom Line

The 49ers were always going to lose some players this offseason, and none of the players that have signed elsewhere came as much of a surprise. The trick was always going to be how the 49ers replaced the contributions of those players.

And this is where I find myself both pleasantly surprised and also impressed with the approach taken by Lynch and Shanahan. If you are going to pay big money for a player, make sure it is a very good to elite level player that knows what it takes to win. Don't spend big money to get just a solid or a good player. Don't spend the money on a guy that isn't committed to winning. 

Very good to elite level players that take the game seriously make the players around them better. It helps make solid players look like good players, and fringe players look solid. If you stack a few of them together in the same unit, they can overtake a game.

It's a tactic the team has employed pretty much every offseason bar the first one since Lynch and Shanahan arrived. In 2018 they went and got Richard Sherman. In 2019 it was Dee Ford (which unfortunately didn't work out due to injury). In 2020 it was Trent Williams. But over those years they had plenty of cap space and they also interspersed it with some overpaying for solid to good players. 

But for the past two offseasons the team has been tight against the cap yet have still aggressively pursued star talent. And they've done it at positions they were the most vulnerable the year before. Last offseason they went and got CB Charvarius Ward who was excellent for the 49ers last season. They also traded for McCaffrey mid-season. And this year Hargrave looks like another home run signing, plugging a gap at DT next to Armstead that at times last season was the teams biggest liability on defense.

By adding another star player to an already star-studded roster, it makes the job of everyone else that much easier. And it means you can likely get by with some lesser talented players than the guys the 49ers are losing at other positions. 

Importantly, by making sure the star players you bring in are professional, high character players you avoid the potential pitfall that other star-studded but egotistical rosters have had. This isn't a team that will accept anything less than 100% commitment, or that is going to start sniping at each other when things get tough. And from everything I have heard about Hargrave, he will fit right into the 49ers locker room and winning mentality.   

28 comments:

  1. They've certainly learned their lesson. I think the addition of Hargraves gives them what they envisioned when they drafted Kinlaw, and what they lost with D J Jones. They'll need to hit on these upcoming draft pics, but if they do, the team should be strong and sustainable moving forward.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Darnold, something like 55 interceptions in 56 games. His release is slow. Hasn't been on the most talented teams so we shall see if Griese can work some magic.

    Clelin Ferrell, will progress mightily under the tutelage of Kocurek.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yea, let him get his hands a little Griese and see what he looks like.

      Ferrell chose wisely.

      Delete
  3. DB Myles Hartsfield now an ex Panther has signed with the Niners.

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  4. If there's one thing that has surprised me this offseason for the 49ers, it is that they haven't restructured CMC. I thought he and Ward would be the obvious choices.

    But by not restructuring, it keeps complete flexibility to move on from CMC at any time with no cap liability, which is nice.

    Of course they still could do something if for example a DE they like remains available for awhile and can be brought in on the relative cheap, but for now looks like they are content with the contract as is.

    I would love to see a good vet DE brought in though.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scooter
      Would you sign Yannick Ngakoue? If so, how much would you be willing to pay him?

      Delete
    2. He's an interesting one. Obviously a good pass rusher, but not sure he's good for much else. Largely a liability against the run.

      I'd prefer Clowney, or Za'Darius Smith if he becomes available.

      Delete
    3. Razor
      Exactly, and why I wouldn't spend that much on him. Not for what he brings to the D!

      Delete
  5. Apparently the 49ers are also in talks with CB Lonnie Johnson. Bringing in some size to the DBs, it seems.

    ReplyDelete
  6. 49ers met with Ronnie Bell, WR, MI. 5th round projection with punt return skills.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Scooter / Razor
    An Eagle F/A the 9er FO should be interested in is S Gardner-Johnson. A player with a nose for the ball with six interceptions (tied for the league lead) in 12 games last season.
    It has been quiet this week regarding Gardner-Johnson. Typically, that’s a sign the player wants more than anyone will pay.
    Spotrac lists 25 y/o Gardner-Johnson’s 2022 salary at $2,540,000.
    If he continues to receive no offers, JL could make him a one year
    offer of $3 Mil. and $1 Mil. signing bonus?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 49ers already have their starting safeties.

      And looks like he just signed with the Lions anyway.

      Delete
    2. Another year of Gardner-Johnson overvaluing his services in a safety saturated market and betting on himself to try again next year.

      Delete
    3. He's a good player, but I will forever remember Kittle manhandling him and 4 of his friends to ice the game against the Saints in 2019.

      Delete
  8. 49ers have added C/G Jon Feliciano. Plenty of starting experience. Nice addition.

    ReplyDelete
  9. That's an upgrade over Brunskill. I'd say he's their 3rd best F/A signing thus far after The Undertaker and Gipson.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wonder if that will give them the leeway to push Burford to RT...?

      Delete
  10. George:
    Jon Feliciano film review (13 min video):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov4Buu_vElE

    ReplyDelete
  11. George:
    David Lombardi
    @LombardiHimself
    1h
    Two teams finished tied ranked #1 in YAC/reception in 2022...
    1. 49ers: 6.63
    2. Panthers: 6.63

    Carolina in the final 6 games with Sam Darnold at QB: 7.23
    (Key note: McCaffrey was with 49ers by this point.)

    ReplyDelete

Breaking

  Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerESPN · 2m Source: the #49ers and corner Deommodore Lenoir have reached a five-year, $92-million extension.