Monday, March 20, 2023

2023 NFL Draft: Offensive Line Edition

 The big concern going into last year was the offensive line and they ended up exceeding expectations. This year their starting RT, Mike McGlinchey is no longer on the team. McKivitz is presumed to be in the mix as his replacement, however I fully expect them to identify a natural OT as his main competitor and ultimately Trent Williams' replacement down the road. Let's take a look at guys that will be available beginning in the middle of round 2, since that's a realistic option should the 49ers choose to go that route, and the players I think they might target:





Cody Mauch, OT, ND 6'5 302 lbs., 32 3/8" arms, 9 3/4" hands, 5.08 40/1.79 10 yard/29" Vert/9' Broad/7.33 3 Cone/4.55 SS/29 reps Bench

Mauch is a former TE turned OT as a walk on. Positives: Athletic, ZBS run blocking machine, can play any position across the line, highly aggressive, good hip explosion, team captain, high energy, love and appreciation for the game. Negatives: Short levers, undisciplined feet, susceptible to bull rush, hand placement needs more refinement. Expected to go in the middle of round 2. Gold Helmet candidate. Summation: Think he's more guard than pure OT.




  Blake Freeland, OT, BYU 6'8 302 lbs., 33 7/8" arms, 10" hands, 4.98 40/1.68 10 yard/37" Vert/10' Broad/7.46 3 cone/4.71 SS

Freeland is a 4 year starter. Multi sport athlete. Shot/Javelin/Track state champion. Positives: Principal's honor roll student, excellent feet, ZBS run blocker, good punch and hand placement. Negatives: Technique refinement, instances of waist bending, better strength. Gold Helmet Designation. Summation: Type of player the team will covet at a position of need with the potential to be the future at LT. Projected #70.



Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama 6'6, 321 lbs., 32 3/4" arms, 10 1/2" hands, 29.5" Vert/9'1 Broad/4.59 SS, 31 reps Bench

Steen came to the Crimson Tide by way of Vanderbilt after 33 starts. Used that experience to gain an opportunity to play LT and never looked back. Positives: Strong, athletic with powerful hips to rotate at the top of the apex, ZBS fit. Negatives: Technique inconsistencies, more of a linear mover. Summation: Plenty to work with room for improvement. Projection 3rd round.





Asim Richards, OT, North Carolina 6' 4 309lbs., 34" arms, 10" hands

Richards is a 2 sport athlete and a physical run blocker. He's played DT, OT, TE. Positives: Mean streak, powerful, strong hands. Negatives: Pass pro susceptible against speed, feet need work, lacks explosion. Summation: Looks like an OG to me and should be there at pick #99. 





Wanya Morris, RT, OU 6'6 317 lbs., 35 1/8" arms, 10 1/4" hands, 5.1 40/1.73 10 yard/28.5" Vert/9.3 Broad

5 Star recruit who's never really lived up to his potential until this past year. Positives: NFL traits, nasty disposition, ZBS fit. Negatives: Core/Grip strength, balance in pass pro. Summation: 1st year where he played to his potential is cause for concern but he should be there at pick #99. 


Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland 6'6, 306 lbs., 33 5/8" arms, 9 1/4" hands, 5.1 40/1.78 Ten yard/31.5" Vert/9'5 Broad

Duncan is a 4 year starter with an NFL frame and athletic traits. Positives: Short area explosion, plays with an attitude in the run game, easy mover in space. Negatives: Grip strength, footwork, leverage awareness. Summation: Elite athlete but it's concerning how poorly refined his game is with all the experience at the position. Projection 4th round.



Warren McClendon Jr., OT, Georgia 6'4, 306 lbs., 34 1/2" arms, 10" hands

McClendon is a RT with NFL bloodlines. Positives: Technique, Intelligence, Strong upper body. Negatives: Slow feet, Inconsistent kick slide/labored vs. speed. Summation: You could do a lot worse. Not sure he's a fit. I'd probably roll the dice. Projection late 3rd.

Round 5 prospects:



Alex Palczewski, OT, Illinois, 6'6, 314 lbs., 9 1/4" hands, 33 3/8" arms

Extensive experience and durability with 65 games started, 49 at OT and 16 at OG. Positives: Captain, 713 pass pro attempts, 99% at RT without giving up a sack, no sacks allowed in 2022, high school wrestler. Negatives: Susceptible to quick swim move over him as a run blocker, stunt/twist recognition, hand placement. Summation: His aggression can be a two edged sword but he would represent great value with the potential to be the RT of the future. I wouldn't pass on him if I missed on any of the others.



Joey Fisher Sheppard OT, 6'5, 322 lbs.

3 year starter with starter traits. Mauler in the run game. Positives: Power, temperament, size and length. Negatives: Technique laziness, hand placement, level of competition. Summation: I like this player and he's another great value in round 5. He has the ability to earn starting reps.



Jon Gaines II, OT, UCLA, 6'4, 303 lbs., 33 5/8" arms, 10 1/8" hands, 5.01 40/1.73 10 yard/32.5" Vert/9'.6 Broad/7.31 3 cone/*4.45 SS

Gaines has experience at C/OG/OT and fits a ZBS with his movement skills. Positives: Intelligence, quickness, versatility. Negatives: Sloppy technique, lacks power, hand placement. Summation: He's a system fit but the lack of power gives me pause. He may be worth a flyer but I'd hate it if he tarnished Lynch's 5th round record. 

*Since 2010, just 28 Offensive Linemen recorded a 4.47 short shuttle or better at the NFL Combine. 24 of those were drafted, and all 24 went on to start 84% of their NFL games.

Some nice information by a HOF OL Coach:




90 comments:

  1. Nice work razor. If Freeland is gone, who would you take?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have very little knowledge of the college game, all I can say is good job to Razor.

    ReplyDelete
  3. George:
    Thanks very much, Razor.
    Question: If we were able to trade for a mid first round pick -- you've heard the rumors -- is there anyone you think might be available there who could be an immediate starter at RT?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Paris, Skoronsky and Broderick Jones will probably be gone by then, but Wright, Bergeron and Dawand Jones could be the next 3 to go in that bottom half/top of round 1/2. I doubt they go that route. I think Freeland, Mauch and Duncan could all start day 1, and of those I think Duncan would be the most cost effective as far as draft capital.

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    2. Razor / Scooter / anyone
      Would you be willing to use draft pick #99 + additional picks, to move up for a RT that you believe is a day one starter?

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    3. I'd do that for a 2024 starter, let alone a day 1 starter.

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  4. I see Austin Bryant visited today. I think he'd be a good depth addition. Ferrell's teammate in college. Has some talent but injuries have been an ongoing issue.

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    Replies
    1. Cheap speed on a one year Kocurek reclamation project!

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    2. They signed him to a one year deal, Scooter.

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    3. I like it. I assume pretty much vet minimum.

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    4. Yep and I think his game flourishes out wide.

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  5. Drake Jackson gave them 315 snaps last year. Bryant can give them 250. Unless Jackson can double his snap counts, they're still gonna need a guy that can give them 300+ more snaps. I'm assuming it'll be a draft pick in a deep class.

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    Replies
    1. I'm not ruling out Armstead picking up some of that.

      But yes, I suspect a mid round DE will be added too.

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  6. Jake Witt with the 6th or early 7th round pick.

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    Replies
    1. That was me. Witt's an interesting case of basketball player turned TE turned offensive tackle (changed position in the middle of a game) for Northern Michigan. Outstanding athleticism and speed in learning the position.
      https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-draft-northern-michigan-ot-jake-witt-runs-sub-4-8

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    2. I suspect Witt will end up a priority UDFA.

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  7. George:

    David Lombardi
    @LombardiHimself

    2023 salary-cap numbers...

    Jimmie Ward (Texans): $4.9m
    Isaiah Oliver (49ers): $1.7m

    The 49ers weren't willing to fit Ward into their plans at safety money ($6.5m APY for him) so they went pure nickel money for Oliver ($3.3m APY)

    ReplyDelete
  8. George:

    David Lombardi
    @LombardiHimself

    Jon Feliciano's 1-year contract with the 49ers:

    -$1.165m base salary (vet min)
    -$1m signing bonus
    -$85k workout bonus
    -no void years on this one

    $2.25m salary-cap hit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They saved money and upgraded at the same time over Brunny.

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    2. George:

      If he starts at RG, I think it's a great price. And then they have Burford and McKivitz fight it out, or share, RT.

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  9. If I was a betting man, at this point I would put my money on the 49ers making it a priority to move up and draft Freeland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scooter / Razpr
      Blake Freeland, OT BYU: I also have the 9ers moving up for.
      CBSSports.com lists him at draft pick #75 (215 points).
      Draft picks #99, #102, + #173 = 220 points. (trade value chart)

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    2. Yep, I think #68 with Denver is a possibilty.

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    3. Don't rule out using future picks as part of trade deals too. More comp picks coming next year.

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  10. 49ers have their kicker. Swapped 2025 draft picks with Panthers for Zane Gonzalez.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mixed feelings about this one.

      Groin injuries are very tricky, but compensation is not much. Calculated risk...let's see how it works out.

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    2. I expect they will bring a rookie in to compete as well. Low cost move means little risk.

      Delete
  11. Scooter / Razor
    * RE Kicker Gonzales: I agree, Gonzales is insurance in case the kicker they draft doesn't work out. He's also easy on the salary cap.
    * Per ESPN, Adam Schefter, Gould told he him he will test free agency and be kicking elsewhere in 2023. Sounds like Gould was not willing to take a pay cut?

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  12. How big a part of the strategy in the decision of which quarterback to draft will it be when faced with the reality of having to get him through waivers and onto the practice squad?

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  13. That's why I think it'll need to be a 7th rounder or UDFA. I don't think they'd be able to get Bennett or DTR to the practice squad. Now I think you could get a Tim DeMorat through.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, highly unlikely the 49ers use more than a 7th on a QB imo. Probably a UDFA. They're set at QB, just need a camp arm.

      Delete
  14. Razor / Scooter
    QB Clayton Tune, Houston: I can see JL drafting him If he's still on the board in 7th Rd. Experienced QB who's put up good numbers in five years at Houston.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Razor:
    I don't know if they met with Tune or not? Have they ever drafted a QB
    they didn't meet with?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. George:

      New signing: Matt Prior, OL

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    2. Lining up competition from C-RT.

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    3. Yep. The signing of Prior changes nothing. Just adds more competition.

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    4. As things stand pre-draft, I'd wager that Feliciano is our RG and McKivitz and Burford share RT duties.

      In an Athletic article Adam Peters, commenting on the strength of the draft, singled out tight end, DT and DE. He didn't mention OL. He also said, in answer to a question about how strong this draft is, "But I think if you ask most teams, they may only have 15 or so first-round grades on players in this draft. Obviously, there are going to be 31 first-round picks, but teams normally have a few more than (15) in terms of first-round grades." So it's possible the Niners are viewing their OL guys currently under contract, including Feliciano and Prior, as the guys they will go with and pick later round guys as projects.

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    5. The comment above was from George.

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    6. George: One thing of note about Feliciano and Prior is their size. Did they learn from Philly that if you need a yard, it's better to have really big people in the trenches?

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    7. The 49ers seem to draft for need with their day 1 and 2 picks, and best available on day 3.

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    8. George, I believe the signings of Feliciano and Pryor are more about making sure the team has no strict "need" for the 2023 season heading into the draft, so aren't forced into making a move for a specific position. Basically, have a roster that if they had to go into the season with what they already have, they'd be ok with it. But they will still likely want to add some competition and depth.

      Given where they are picking and how the team is set up, I suspect the round 3 to 5 picks will be made with an eye more for 2024, the rest for cheap depth. I think TE, S, DE and OL will figure into their earlier picks.

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    9. What do you guys think of Brenton Strange?

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    10. He looks a pretty good option. Quite a few good looking TEs this year tbh.

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    11. Razor
      Strange put up descent numbers at the combine. He had the 2nd fest 10 yard split time (1.57s) for TE's, but his 20-yard shuttle time (4.47)was the slowest. He'd be an asset in the run game blocking and a back up for Juszczyk. At 6' 3" X 247, he's big enough to play as an in-line TE and KS will like his YAC. He can be used in the slot as well aa H back.
      QUESTION: Would you use a draft pick on him, or make him
      a priority UDFA?


      Delete
    12. I'd be very surprised if Strange doesn't get drafted.

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    13. Wouldn't surprise me if Strange comes off the board before pick 75.

      Delete
  16. I don't understand the debates being had about what Lynch and Shanahan mean regarding the QBs and whether they are on the same page. It all seems pretty clear.

    They both believe Purdy played at a level that he deserves to be considered the QB1 right now. If he was healthy, he would get 1st crack with the 1s. And that is absolutely fair enough based on how he played. I also don't take away a message that they now consider him to be the undisputed long term answer - just QB1 right now.

    They both feel good about all 3 QBs and think the team can win with any of them. Also fair.

    While Purdy is out they will give both Lance and Darnold an opportunity to show what the pecking order will be between them. Which again is absolutely fair enough - if they feel Purdy is QB1 there is no need to be giving Lance a clear path. But also outlines it is all still a competition... even for QB1 and both Lance and Darnold will have a chance to stake their claim for the job.

    They aren't ruling out trading Lance (or anyone), which again makes total sense, but they also like having him on the roster so feel good about keeping him.

    Basically, they view QB as a strength of the team and are happy to be 3 deep.

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    Replies
    1. I'm with you, Scooter. I'd be envious of the 49ers qb room if I was Josh McDaniels.

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  17. I'm hearing Breeland is coming off the board around pick #50. Yikes! Too expensive. You can cross him off the list. Maybe you could get Duncan at #68 or maybe they're anticipating Burford taking over RT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, that's what I expected after the combine. OTs get overdrafted, athletic OTs even more so. I think the 49ers either move up a ways for one or end up getting one day 3.

      Delete
  18. George:

    Cody Mauch film study:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5uNO4h3Ge0

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  19. The good news is the 49ers are in a sweet spot as it pertains to the talent in this draft. An early run on OL is just going to push a good player at another position down to them. I could see them trading back a little in rounds 3 and 5 where their picks are all bunched together.

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    Replies
    1. Will be interesting to see the strategy they employ. Let the draft come to them, or go up and get the guys you want?

      Not a whole heap of roster spots available.

      Delete
    2. Conversely, the more bites of the apple, oh you know the saying.

      Delete
  20. David Lombardi
    @LombardiHimself
    ·
    2h
    It's possible because only the top 51 cap hits count in the offseason. Because the 49ers don't pick until No. 99, they're not slated for a draftee cap hit of over $1 million, so they'll be able to sign their class for a remarkably cheap price tag

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, at this point the hit against the cap of anyone they sign will only count if their 2023 cap hit is higher than the 51st highest cap hit on the roster. And if it is, the cap hit will only count as their slated 2023 cap hit less the 2023 cap hit of the player they bump back one spot from being the 51st highest cap hit on the roster to 52nd.

      My understanding is that #51 is currently Zakelj.

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    2. George:

      Sam Darnold 2020 Jets highlights:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UowSm5RFgzs

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    3. Yep, Zakelj counts for something like $924,000 or so.

      Delete
  21. Why in the world would anyone trade Trey Lance. Nobody knows whether this kid is good QB or not.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yea, I don't see any way in hell they trade Lance this year.

      Delete
    2. Only reason for the 49ers to trade Lance is if they get a great offer in return. Like, at least a 1st and change. And I just don't see any team being willing to give that up for him.

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    3. I think he gets the month of September to win his job back. If he's part of the reason the team is winning, Purdy stays on the bench.

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  22. Razor / Scooter
    Now that singing free agents is coming to a conclusion, do either of you see the 9ers drafting any position for need? Other than possibly RT, I see JL and KS drafting the best player(s) available.
    My best guess for draft pick #99, 101 and 102: RT, EDGE and TE.
    Draft pick #155,164 and #173: S, OLB and IOL.
    How do you see the 9ers drafting?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think their approach has been need early and bpa on day 3.

      Delete
    2. What are their immediate needs?

      RT and edge are really the only starting roles you would question whether they have a starting calibre player. Maybe LB3 too. But all of those spots have healthy competition for the role including young guys they want to see step up into the role. We saw last year with Banks and Hufanga they don't mind drafting a year early and putting guys they've groomed into starting roles.

      And when your first pick is at the end of the 3rd round you have a lot less of an opportunity to draft for immediate need.

      The team has a lot of flexibility with the draft. But unless they are willing to move up a ways for a player, I think it wil largely be about filling future needs, adding competition and adding depth.

      Delete
    3. RT with an eye on the future LT
      Edge
      TE
      FS apprentice
      Kicker

      Delete
    4. The top 4 you list are what I expect to be the top targets for the 49ers. And a kicker will be added, either drafted or undrafted.

      Delete
    5. Scooter
      My complaint against Gould was the 9er field position after he
      kicked off. If the draft pick can kick it into the end zone, that alone will improve the 9ers ST. That and saving ~$4.5 Mil from
      his ~$5.5 Mil 2022 salary.
      Do you have a preference for the kicker the 9ers draft?

      Delete
    6. Well, Gonzalez is a proficient kicker and good at getting it out of the end zone. I don't really mind which rookie kicker they take, chances are they'll struggle to beat out Gonzalez.

      Delete
  23. Now that we're nearing the point that the picks given up in the Lance trade are fulfilled, its interesting to think through what they gave up for him.

    Realistically, if they hadn't traded up they would have taken Mac Jones at 12 in 2021. Neither Jones or Lance has yet to prove themselves capable starters.

    Last year, if they'd had a 1st round pick, it probably would have been Cole Strange. Maybe Linderbaum if they moved up. Linderbaum looks like he'll be good, Strange ok. But Brendel was as good last year and they've been able to retain him long term, so didn't really lose much, at least based on what we've seen so far.

    This year if they had a first rounder it would likely be an OT. In the end this is probably the biggest part of the trade they'll miss - the ability to draft a 1st round OT in a good looking OT class. Not so much for the RT spot to replace McGlinchey this year, but more so as an eventual replacement for Williams. Will be interesting to see how they approach the draft this year and next to shore up the OT position. Finding a mid round gem at OT would be huge.

    Strange to think that even if Lance never pans out for the 49ers, they probably haven't lost that much by taking the gamble to trade for him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He's got the skill set to compete with Mahomes, and that's worth rolling the dice on. He's got a chance to win his job back. Let's see what he can do.

      Delete
    2. Strange to think that even if Lance never pans out for the 49ers, they probably haven't lost that much by taking the gamble to trade for him.

      They have absorbed that trade very nicely. I haven't seen anything from Lance up to this point that warrants those picks but I don't think you can trade him just yet. I think its Purdy's team from here on out he has earned it. By the way the Niners might have 3 starters in their QB room.

      Delete
  24. Steen is a guy I love at the bottom of the 3rd. Hes a smooth mover in space and good run blocker that is just as capable of displacing Dlinemen as blocking db's in space or walling off defenders.
    He has some lapses in pass pro but that appears to be more of a technique thing as hes able to get in space.
    Freeland is interesting as well but I think he and Duncan will be gone quite a bit above where sf is picking and more importantly where I think they would be willing to trade up to. ( I'm guessing mid 3rd round, maybeeee early 3rd. )

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Freeland has been rumored to go around #50, but I think you could get Duncan at #68. They may just wait until round 5 to address the position if there's not a player they feel is good value left on the board.

      Delete
    2. Yeah, I quite like Steen too. If the 49ers move up I'd probably target Mauch, otherwise Steen in the 3rd works for me.

      I'll be honest, I think Duncan and Freeland will be gone too early for the 49ers to consider.

      Delete
    3. Oh, ha, just realised you said the same Shoup!

      Delete
    4. Razor, If they do wait until the 5th who are the guys you think could realistically be there? Fisher? Mclendon? the Kid from Old Dominion?

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    5. I got a late 3rd round grade on McClendon, but yea, Fisher and Palczewski are two they could target in round 5. Not certain Saldiveri is a natural OT, but yea I expect he'll be available.

      Delete
  25. Yeah.
    I like the others as well.
    We just agree that Steen is the guy that is most likely to be in that range where they won't have to give up too much to get him and is a scheme fit.
    There are probably others as well but I haven't gotten that deep in my studies yet

    ReplyDelete
  26. Belichick shopping Mac Jones, lmao! As soon as I saw his draft day strut I knew this dude had some type of character flaw.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He comes across as an entitled d%$@, but he was set up to fail last year.

      Delete

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