Friday, February 17, 2023

49ers Offseason Primer - Looking for Veteran Help


By Scooter_McG

In my previous article I outlined the internal moves I believe the 49ers should make, in terms of coaching staff, own FA re-signings and restructuring deals for players to create cap space.

Since that article it has been confirmed that Bobby Slowik and Corey Undlin will be departing the 49ers to join up with DeMeco Ryans in Houston. In a corresponding move, the 49ers have hired Klint Kubiak to a yet to be defined 'senior assistant' position on offense, to replace Slowik. I personally love this hire as the Shanahan/ Kubiak tree has a long history of working well together and both Klint and Klay are creative offensive minds that have grown up around some of the best offensive coaches in football. Don't be surprised if Klint becomes a HC candidate in the near future as the next Shanahan disciple.

Quick Recap of Own Roster Decisions

As a recap, in terms of restructures/ extensions I suggested McCaffrey, Ward and Bosa were the obvious candidates, with those three moves likely capable of freeing up between $15M-$20M (and possibly more if the team is happy to push large chunks of the cap hit to future years), giving the team around $25M-$30M in cap space to play with. There is also the possibility of restructuring the deals for players like Williams, Warner, Armstead or Kittle, though I would suggest the team try to restrict itself in how much they touch these due to the already high annual prorated bonuses for these players. 

In terms of own FAs to re-sign, the guys I would make priorities are Gipson and Brendel. In my opinion the team should be able to retain those two players while only adding around $5M-$6M in 2023 cap liability - Gipson likely won't cost more than around $2.5M on a 1-year deal while Brendel I believe could be retained on a 2-3 year deal for around $6M per annum on average, but with a small cap hit in 2023. Robbie Gould will also likely be re-signed, but again, I would aim to keep his 2023 cap hit fairly low. There are also a bunch of lower cost pending FAs I outlined the team should retain, but bringing them back should not add much to the 2023 cap liability (when considering top 51 contracts, as only the top 51 contracts count against the cap until the final roster cuts). 

The 49ers should be able to retain these players while still having $20M+ in cap space to play with (some of which needs to be set aside for draft picks and in-season moves).

Notably, I would let the following bigger name players hit FA: Jimmie Ward, Mike McGlinchey, Emmanuel Moseley, Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jimmy Garoppolo. If a market doesn't develop for Moseley, Ebukam or Omenihu, I would consider bringing them back. 

Free Agency

When it comes to FA, I think 49ers fans will need to go into this with reasonable expectations. Unless the team is willing to mortgage the future, they won't have the cap space to make a bunch of splash signings. And from what we have seen in the past, and what Lynch and Shanahan have repeatedly said about building the team the right way to compete every year, don't expect them to mortgage the future. 

Last offseason the approach was simple: they targeted a premier CB and STs, then used FA to fill out the roster with lower price FAs for depth and competition. I think we should expect a similar philosophy this year - maybe one or two 'splash' signings and a bunch of depth/ competition guys.

But what position(s) and which players should they target?

Assuming the team follows my formula for re-signing their own FAs, for mine there are really only three positions that make sense for a potential splash signing: RT, DT and DE. The other positions all have players that the team should feel reasonably comfortable starting and depth/ competition can be added with lower cost FAs and draft picks. 

Of those three positions, there is one position I feel the team absolutely needs to address through FA to add a high level starter, and that is NT/DT. Kinlaw simply hasn't developed the way the team hoped or been able to stay healthy, and while players like Givens and Ridgeway can likely be retained relatively cheaply they are also better suited as rotational players. 

Over on Twitter there is quite a lot of folks talking about David Onyemata from the Saints as being an ideal signing. I'll be honest, I disagree with this. Onyemata is more of a traditional 3T DT and while he is a nice interior pass rusher he can be a little suspect against the run. That is not what I believe the team needs, with Armstead, Givens, McGill and Ridgeway all able to provide a similar skillset. In my opinion they need someone that is stout against the run while also being able to provide some pass rush, to replace Kinlaw in the starting lineup. In saying that, it is worth keeping in mind the 49ers don't use a traditional NT - their DTs need to be able to penetrate.

I see two main candidates. My number one candidate would be Dalvin Tomlinson from the Vikings. He played a pseudo DT/DE role for the Vikings but is an ideal candidate for the DT spot next to Armstead in my opinion. The problem is he will likely be in high demand and could easily see a contract north of $10M a year. Even so, that's a figure I'd be willing to consider for him over say a 3-4 year deal, keeping the 2023 cap hit at a more manageable $5M range. If Tomlinson is a no-go, my fallback option would be Sheldon Rankins from the Jets, who will likely get a contract in the $6M-$8M a year range at maximum. 

With the money being spent at DT, I believe the 49ers would be well served looking to add serviceable but relatively low cost FAs at RT and edge to add to the competition/ rotation, supplemented with draft picks. 

At RT, the two players I would be looking at if I was the 49ers are Cameron Fleming and Jermaine Eluemunor. Both players had solid years last season and should be relatively cheap on short term deals. In the case of Fleming, Klint Kubiak will be familiar with the player from their time together last year. Neither player should be considered an upgrade from McGlinchey, but they can be serviceable starters that you also hope can be beaten out by a younger player. If the 49ers are willing to splash the cash at RT, to be honest, they would be best served retaining McGlinchey.

At edge, as much as I would love to bring in a big name star, I think the 49ers need to be looking for the next reclamation project for Kocurek to work his magic on. And I have a top candidate for this: Clelin Ferrell. Yes, Ferrell has been a major disappointment to date, after being the 4th overall pick in 2019. But there is no denying he has the physical talent and seems an ideal fit to get the Kocurek treatment on a 1-year prove it deal. The success of Kocurek in getting the best out of guys like Hyder, Key and Omenihu (and thus allowing these players to enter FA at the peak of their value) should be attractive to a guy like Ferrell who needs to shed the 'bust' label. As backup options, the Texans pair of Rasheem Green and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo also pique the interest. And if Ebukam or Omenihu do not see big money offers coming their way, I'd also be keen to bring back one of those players (but probably can't afford both).   

Aside from those positions, I think the 49ers should be looking more at depth/ competition rather than potential starters. One guy I would be keeping tabs on though is Byron Murphy, the Cardinals CB. He has the versatility to compete at both outside and slot CB and would be a nice addition if he can be brought in relatively cheaply. 

That's my thoughts on potential targets for the 49ers FA. Who would you like to see the team try to bring in? 

71 comments:

  1. Don't be surprised if Klein isn't brought in once Klint leaves, lol.

    I see Omenihu leaving for a big deal in Houston, along with Al-Shaair. Ebukam's market may not be inflated due to the injury bug biting into his practice time and affecting his production in the second half of the season.

    I think Tomlinson and Rankins are good fits and fit the budget. I might include, Khalen Saunders too.

    Bringing in Ferrell is a move I could see them making. One year deal under, Kocurek with a chance to boost his stock in similar fashion to Key.

    I liked, Murphy coming out. If his back checks out he'd be another high ceiling player that wouldn't break the bank like a, Jamel Dean.

    Resigning Brendel might be predicated on how they feel about Zakelj's readiness to take over, and whether or not they can bring back Brunny on the cheap. I don't think they'll resign McGlinchey because he's gonna get a big deal, and it'll be over their value marker. I'd look for them to use their first draft pick on the position to compete with the rest of their inhouse players.

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    Replies
    1. I'd be trying to bring back Brunskill regardless of what they do with Brendel... though only on backup money. Regarding Zakelj... my preference would be to only have one new starter on the OL if possible.

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    2. Scooter / Razor
      Just curious why you project Zakelj at center, when many sports writers believe the 9ers will try to use him at RT replacing McGlinchey? (Not saying I disagree, just curious about your reasons for Center)
      As for Brendel. I agree on bring him back on backup money
      and drafting Center John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota. Let him compete in 2023 and take over Center in 2024

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    3. "I think that [playing center] is something that [John] Lynch and coach [Kyle Shanahan] mentioned to me on Draft Day. I kind of worked [on playing center] my senior year, kind of wanting to address my versatility. Kind of being able to play all five positions is something that I want [to show]."

      Dude had a RAS score of like 9.74 or something close to that, plus he made all the line calls from LT for Fordham. Brendel is 30 years old, and I don't think the 49ers will resign him.

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    4. Razor
      If the 9ers play Zakelj in at Center, I'd agree with not resigning Brendel. But if the 9ers play Zakelj at RT, would you resign
      Brendel? If not, would you draft someone, or sign a FA?

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    5. Zekelj also spent last season training at centre.

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    6. Geep, in that scenario I'd probably pivot towards, Garrett Bradbury whose not only younger, but a better run blocker.

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    7. Razor
      Yea, I like Vikings Center Garrett Bradbury, especially his pass blocking. Spotrac lists his Market value at $11.9 Mil. and he's said he wants to stay with the Vikings. If the Vikings offer him anything close to that much, I doubt the 9ers will be interested.

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    8. Razor
      Just read this article. It should help the 9ers if they're interested in signing either Center Garrett Bradbury or RT Blake Brendel.
      "The Minnesota Vikings are in a position that is not ideal for the salary cap. According to Over The Cap, the Vikings are about $23 million over the salary cap heading into the 2023 season. Things didn’t get any easier as they saw some dead cap added onto the books.
      On Monday at 3 pm central time, the contracts for both CB Patrick Peterson and DE Dalvin Tomlinson both voided adding a total of $8.25 million in dead money to the salary cap.

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    9. Call me crazy, but I would rather just re-sign Brendel. Bradbury is ok, but I don't think he is an improvement. I mean, there's a reason the Vikings didn't pick up his 5th year option. And while he was a bit better in 2022, he still got dominated by some of the better DTs.

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  2. The Niner QBs since 2017 that have been sidelined by (deep breath) … a strained hip (C.J. Beathard), torn ACL (Jimmy Garoppolo), sprained wrist (Beathard), high ankle sprain (Garoppolo), aggravated high ankle sprain (Garoppolo), torn elbow ligament (Nick Mullens), broken finger (Trey Lance), strained calf (Garoppolo), sprained knee (Lance), torn thumb ligament (Garoppolo), broken ankle (Lance), broken foot (Garoppolo), torn elbow ligament (Brock Purdy) and a concussion (Josh Johnson).

    - Eric Branch

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  3. With regards to signing a guy like Tomlinson, there really shouldn't be any reason the 49ers can't be aggressive to go het him. While he will likely get north of $10M a year, it's unlikely he will get above $15M a year. That sort of money goes to guys that are high end disruptors against the pass, and while Tomlinson is decent at it, his forte is against the run.

    My guess is he tops out at around $13M a year, but probably gets less than that. And if I am the 49ers I am happy to give him that, though obviously if they can get him for less then great.

    In terms of impact against the cap... they can actually easily do that contract too. Make it a 3 year ($39M) or 4 year ($52M) contract with one or two void years, and give him say a $12.5M signing bonus. Over five years (with voidable years), that's a prorated bonus of just $2.5M per year. In year 1 keep his salary pretty low. Say $2.5M, with a year 1 cap hit of $5M. On a 3 or 4 year deal that means you will average a salary of $12M to $12.5M/ cap hit of $14.5M to $15M over the remaining years. There are also other structural options to keep cap hits in year 2 and 3 lower if needed.

    Such a deal would actually allow them to potentially sign a couple of mid tier FAs at other positions too, or maybe not be as aggressive in pushing money down the line in restructuring their own players.

    The main risk the 49ers have is come 2024 and 2025, the team is already committing a lot of salary cap space to just a handful of players, which will only increase with extensions to Bosa and Aiyuk. But that's the beauty of having QBs on cheap deals - they can afford to do so, for now.

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    Replies
    1. What a bonus it would be if Kalia Davis breaks out this year. You know, I'm beginning to think shorter guys with length is the way to go inside. That's one of the reasons I like, Adebawore so much.

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    2. Davis is a guy the team will be hoping can fit nicely into the rotation this season.

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  4. Sounds like 49er fans should get ready for Lance to be leading the team in 2023.

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  5. Here is my $0.02 on center:

    One underrated aspect of OLINE play is longevity. The more you play with the same people, the better you get.

    So I would be all in for re-signing Brendal/Brunskill and then developing Zakelj. No guarantee that Zakelj would be plug and play in this offense in his sophomore year. Plus Brendal is a favorite of coach Foerster.

    Here is my Offseason wishlist:

    I would let Gould walk and draft a Kicker (with a late round pick). With so many contracts on ST (Wish, Burks) drafting and locking up a rookie Kicker for 4 years is how we can manage the cap.

    Other Offseason Moves: Pay Bosa (no brainer with minimal 2023 cap), handle Aiyuk next offseason. Sign E-Man on a prove-it 1 year deal. Sign Brendal and/or Brunskill. Sign Gipson for 3-4 Mil. Sign Kerry Hyder/Jordan Willis for Vet minimum. Let everyone else walk.

    Draft: Out of the 11 draft picks, we should go something like this based on how FA shakes up (in no particular order):

    RT (McGlinch Replacement)
    DT (Potential Kinlaw Replacement)
    DT (Double dip. Potential Hyder/Ridgeway Replacement)
    Swing Tackle (Potential Brunskill Replacement)
    Blocking Tight End (To complement Kittle, Kroft, Worner)
    CB (In case we don't re-sign E-Man/Ambry Thomas Replacement)
    Kicker (Gould Replacement)
    DE (Omenihu/Ebukam Replacement)
    LB (Al-Shair/Flannegan Fowles Replacement)
    Safety (Jimmy Ward Replacement)
    QB (Jimmy G Replacement)

    Rookie UDFA - RB, CB, DT, OT, Center, Safety

    Additionally, I have great expectations for the following players who are currently on PS/NFI:

    Qwantrezz Knight (CB), Taylor Hawkins (Safety), Curtis Robinson (LB), Keith Ismael (Center), Kalia Davis (DT) and Marcelo-McCrary Ball (LB)

    Overall I think except Chiefs, we are better placed than most teams.

    Next season outlook: Schedule is tough and with Purdy postponing surgery, I think hope is now for him to start Training camp on IR and be available mid-season. Still I feel we should again make the playoffs next season.

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  6. If Woods doens't cost too much, I'd much rather sign him than OBJr.

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    Replies
    1. Oh heck yeah.

      But... will he really come cheap?

      I would love to have a 3rd WR you know can step in and be a good #1 or #2 if Deebo or Aiyuk get hurt. But I suspect given salary cap they'll need to make do with what they have and a draft pick.

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    2. Tbh, if the 49ers are looking at adding a potential WR3 to the mix, the guys I'd look at are Parris Campbell and Nelson Agholor. For mine, both are players that would look better in an offense like the 49ers that focuses on run after catch ability.

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  7. I see Jordan Elliott over at NN agrees with me re signing Tomlinson.

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  8. I wonder how badly Bobby Wagner wants to play for a winner...

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    Replies
    1. Wagner's been the top dog LB in the NFL for a number of years, but knows that Fred has overtaken him. Egos might be a problem if he is signed.

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    2. I wouldn't be too worried about egos with the 49ers. But I do question how much Wagner is willing to sacrifice $$ wise to play for a legit powerhouse/ SB contender. Sure would be something though, if he joined the 49ers.

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  9. I'm hearing the 49ers will go after Kaleb McGary if the Falcons do not franchise tag him. Tag is $18 million and I believe his market price is around $17 million. Great run blocker, not so much in pass pro. Gave up 6 sacks last year.

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    Replies
    1. Big time move if they do, and fits what we know Shanahan priotises.

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  10. "Purdy landed in the mid-90s on something called the S2 Cognition test, a score you might consider Drew Brees-like," wrote Barrows. "Which is to say, it's elite. The S2 isn't an intelligence test like the 50-question Wonderlic exam but rather measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information. It's like the 40-yard dash for the brain."

    Two other current top passers, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, also scored in the same range.

    "We consider anything above the 80th percentile to be elite," Ally told Barrows."

    Mental makeup is as important as the physical side of football. Perhaps the NFL coaches need to give more credence to the brain than they currently do.

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    Replies
    1. Apparently Lance scored highy too, though not quite in the same range.

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    2. If Lance starts next season which seems likely I sure hope KS doesn't run him more than twice a game.

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  11. Apparently 49ers are working with Fred Warner and Arik Armstead on restructured contracts to free up cap space.

    Personally I would hope that CMC and Charvarius Ward would be the first guys they go to (and of course they may well be). After them, Warner makes the most sense for a restructure given he still has four years on his deal and is only 27 this season.

    But Armstead... he'd be the last guy other than maybe Trent Williams I would restructure. His contract is up at the end of 2024. He already has $7.6M in prorated bonus counting against the cap in 2023 and 2024, plus $6.7M against the cap in 2025 when his contract voids. Those are manageable amounts, but restructure him again now and those numbers get awfully close to $10M in prorated bonus per year, on top of salary. His cap hit for 2024 would be close to $30M.

    If they do anything with Armstead I would prefer it be a 2-3 year extension, not just a restructure.

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    Replies
    1. Wonder why they would make such a mistake? Paraag Marathe is supposed to be a cap wizard.

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    2. I'm hoping it's just a mistaken rumour. Ir an extension they are working on.

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    3. WRT Armstead, an extension makes sense to me anyway. His game is based on power and that should translate into his mid-30s so long as his back and knees hold up.

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    4. Fine with an extension, it's the restructure that has me confused.

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  12. As some (slightly) out of the box ideas for 49ers targets this offseason, at the combine I would be having chats with the Dolphins and Vikings about potential trades for Emmanuel Ogbah or Za'Darius Smith. Both teams are a ways over the cap. Trading either player would clear a nice amount of cap space. In the case of Ogbah, he won't even be a starter under new DC Fangio, with Chubb and Phillips both better suited to OLB duties in a 3-4 and ability to play down in 4-man fronts.

    Ogbah had a down year last year even before his injury, which makes trading for him a risk. But he fits the Kocurek mold perfectly and if he returns to earlier form would make a nice complement to Bosa. A problem with Ogbah though is that he has a $15M, fully guaranteed base salary in 2023 (which is actually what makes him a trade and not cut candidate for the Dolphins). But, some of that can be converted to bonus, and I would also see if the Dolphins would be willing to wear a portion of it to get him off the books.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Either one would be fine with me, although I'd prefer Smith.

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    2. Smith is clearly the better player. But he is also likely to cost more in trade capital, and is also a player the Vikings could likely just restructure. I'd love to get him and 49ers should enquire, but I suspect Ogbah is the more realistic option.

      Delete
  13. Pepper is reupping for another 3 years.

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  14. The 49ers will franchise tag Gould if no agreement is reached. $5.4 million is too much. Put me down as a no

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  15. Razor
    If the 9ers did let Gould walk, would you replace him with a draft pick, or sign a free agent?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it's time to draft a kicker like they did a punter.

      Delete
    2. Until we can rectify the issues with the Special Teams kick-off coverage, it's prudent to sign a kicker (draft/strong leg) that can kick the ball deep or out of the endzone.

      Delete
  16. Razor
    Would you draft Missouri place kicker Harrison Mevis? If so, would you
    use a draft pick or try signing him as an UDFA?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Moody, Szmyt or Mevis. Take your pick and use one of those 7th rounders on one.

      Delete
  17. Bucs set to release Donovan Smith.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anything that adds options in FA at OT increases the chances the 49ers can get one without breaking the bank.

      But I would avoid Smith for the 49ers. More a LT option, and not very good in the ground game.

      Delete
  18. 4th and Jauan is coming back for another year.

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  19. S Tashaun Gipson has informed the #49ers/#NFL teams that he plans to play in the 2023 season.

    ReplyDelete
  20. McGlinchey sounds like he's as good as gone.

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    Replies
    1. Yep. Interesting that Lynch said they would like him back but his price will be out of their reach. Makes me think the rumour of going for McGary is baseless.

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  21. 49ers met with Isaiah McGuire, Missouri, Edge

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    Replies
    1. Ikenna Enechukwu, Edge, Rice has also met with the 49ers

      Delete
    2. Zach Pickens, DT, South Carolina meets with the 49ers

      Delete
    3. Cam Jones, LB, Indiana meets with 49ers

      Delete
    4. Dante Stills, DL, Michigan meets with 49ers
      Byron Young, Edge, Tennessee meets with 49ers

      Delete
    5. Dante Stills, DL, *West Virginia

      Delete
    6. Following on from my reply below - a lot of those FA depth pieces are on the DL. Time to go young in the DL rotation.

      Delete
    7. Gervarrius Owens, S, Houston

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  22. Lynch, "We've got 10 picks and we gotta make them count". Suggests to me they may stay put and let the draft come to them. Draft for need on day 2 and bpa on day 3.

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    Replies
    1. The team has a lot of depth pieces that are FAs and not a lot of cap space. May be time to let the depth be replaced by cheap contracts.

      Delete
  23. Razor / Scooter / Anyone
    If the 9ers let Gould walk, would you sign K Matt Araiza? The San Diego DA has refused to press rape charges against him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Naw, it's unfortunate if he's not guilty but just the charge alone scares me off.

      Delete
  24. Replies
    1. Really? That would be huge if true. If it happens will no doubt be incentive/ per game roster laden with NLTBE incentives (which actually would be pretty likely to be earned if he stays healthy, but will fall under NLTBE due to barely playing last season). That way they can pay him what he deserves while keeping his salary cap hit in 2023 pretty low.

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