49ers Offseason Primer - Internal Moves

By Scooter_McG

The 49ers 2022 season ended in about as disappointing fashion as possible, with the team never standing a chance in the NFCCG as they lost QB Brock Purdy on their opening drive to a torn UCL in his elbow, and backup QB Josh Johnson later to concussion. Now comes the long offseason as the team looks to reload in pursuit of another crack at the Super Bowl in 2023.

I'll be doing a series of posts on my thoughts on what I see as being the key decisions for the 49ers this offseason, broken down across key areas. Today I will be focusing on the coaching staff/ front office and the 49ers own free agents. 

Coaching Staff and Front Office  

This is already underway as some staff have departed and one hire has already been made. The headline departure from the team is standout DC DeMeco Ryans, who was hired as HC of the Texans. So far only one other assistant has been confirmed as following Ryans to the Texans - quality control coach Stephen Adegoke who will take up coaching the Texans DBs. However, offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik is rumoured to be a candidate as Ryans OC, while defensive passing game specialist and DBs coach Cory Undlin's contract has been allowed to expire and may not be retained. The team also lost Director of Player Personnel Ran Carthon to the Titans GM role, while assistant head coach and RBs coach Anthony Lynn has also fielded interviews with other teams. 

The big hire so far is Steve Wilks to the vacated DC role, who did a nice job as interim HC of the Panthers this season. He will be tasked with maintaining a top-end defensive unit following the excellent contributions of Ryans and Saleh before him. As DBs expert it is also likely he has someone in mind to take over from Undlin and/ or provide his own assistance in coaching the unit up as needed. Importantly, Kris Kocurek has agreed to stay on as DL coach to support Wilks.

The key from here will be in keeping as much of the remaining staff in place as possible. It will be interesting to see whether the team looks to promote someone to the OC role (such as Slowik) to keep hold of them, in a similar vein as what they did with McDaniel. On the defensive side of the ball, I will be looking closely at who they bring in as the new defensive quality control coach, as I wouldn't be shocked if it was someone they see as having potential to be a future internal promotion to DC in a few years time.

Own Free Agents to Retain and Position Needs

The 49ers have 46 players currently under contract for the 2023 season, though that includes only 33 players that were on the active roster or IR at the end of the 2022 season. The good news is the bulk of the 49ers starters are under contract and it is mostly depth players that are coming off contract. 

Even so, there a number of UFAs of note, including: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jimmie Ward, Samson Ebukam, Emmanuel Moseley, Mike McGlinchey, Jake Brendel, Azeez Al-Shaair, Tashaun Gipson, Charles Omenihu, Robbie Gould, Dan Brunskill, Jordan Willis, Hassan Ridgeway, Kerry Hyder, Tarvarius Moore, Ross Dwelley, Tyler Kroft, Taybor Pepper and Jason Verrett. There's a lot of good players on that list, many of which were important contributors in 2022. 

Kevin Givens, Colton McKivitz and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are also RFAs, while Jauan Jennings is an ERFA, though each of those players should be fairly easy to retain. 

Looking at who is off contract, there are a couple of notable players and positions to keep an eye on:

• OL: The OL was surprisingly good this season, in particular in pass protection. Brendel was something of a revelation at center, exceeding all expectations to the point where replacing him now seems a difficult task. It's difficult to predict what Brendel's market may be given he's already 30 and has only one year of starting experience in a system that is suited to his skillset. The 49ers should look to re-sign Brendel imo, though I suspect teams with a need at center that run zone heavy schemes will sniff around. Meanwhile, McGlinchey has been a mainstay on the right for much of the past five seasons, and while he has been known mainly for the couple of times a game he gets egregiously beaten, he has mostly been a solid starter with bouts of excellence in the run game. Contract predictors seem to believe he could be a fairly hot commodity and earn in the realm of $15M/annum. Brunskill has also been a reliable starter or backup for the team and for the right price I would be keen to see him brought back. There are some potential internal candidates to take over from these players. At center and OG, the 49ers drafted Nick Zakelj and signed UDFA Jason Poe last year, with both players getting some time training at center (mostly Zakelj). At RT, the team can easily re-sign RFA Colton McKivitz, who they held in high regard as potential future NFL OT in the 2020 draft, while they also have last season's swing OT Jaylon Moore that could complete for the job or potentially move RG Spencer Burford over. 
• DL: Bosa and Armstead are the key cogs of the DL, but the vast majority of their supporting cast are off contract. Omenihu, Ebukam, Willis, Hyder, Ridgeway and Givens all did a good job providing depth and rotation (with Ebukam and Givens playing a lot of starter snaps) and ideally the bulk of these players would be brought back. Givens as a RFA should be fairly easy to retain, while Willis, Hyder and Ridgeway can probably be brought back relatively cheaply, but Omenihu and Ebukam could both see contracts in the realm of $10M/annum which may be a little too much for the 49ers to match. I'd probably let both seek greener pastures, but I do believe the 49ers have a need to strengthen the DT position and add 1 or 2 quality edge rushers to add to the mix. 
• Safety/ Nickel: Talanoa Hufanga will lock down one starting safety spot following his breakout season, however, both Tashaun Gipson and Jimmie Ward are off contract leaving a hole at FS and nickel. George Odum is currently the only other safety on the roster with some starting experience, but he is more a STs specialist and the team should not go into the season with him pencilled in to compete for a starting job. At nickel, the 49ers draft Samuel Womack last year and while he struggled to get on the field this year I suspect it may be a similar case as with Lenoir where he comes back a better player following some rookie growing pains. The team also had a couple of players on the practice squad this year that they may be looking at to compete for jobs next season in Quantrezz Knight and Tayler Hawkins. For mine, Jimmie Ward is unlikely to be brought back unless for some reason no market eventuates for him (highly unlikely). Gipson meanwhile has made it known he will need some time away to decide on whether to retire or play on, though he did also say if he plays on he would want it to be with the 49ers. If I was the 49ers I would be keeping in close contact with Gipson and bring him back if he decides to play on. 
• Outside CB: Emmanuel Moseley is another interesting name on the FA list who I am sure the team would love to bring back if they can. But the salary cap and emergence of Demo Lenoir may make that difficult. The 49ers have two starting calibre CBs in Ward and Lenoir, but you can never have too many. If Moseley's knee injury suppresses his market I'd be keen to re-sign him, but I suspect DeMeco Ryans (among other teams) will also be keen to bring him in and will likely price him out of the 49ers range. Jason Verrett is also a FA again, but I think it is time to call time on Verrett. Depth will need to be added at CB. 
• QB: This one is pretty obvious - Jimmy Garoppolo will not be brought back. However, the injury to Purdy, and potential for his rehab to bleed into TC, means the team may need to think about brining in a vet QB as insurance.
• STs: Two of the three specialists are off contract (Gould and Pepper). Of the two, Pepper will be the easiest decision. He's been excellent and can be retained cheaply, so I expect him to be brought back. Gould, however, could be more of a discussion. He's excellent, but he's also old and expensive. I suspect the team will bring him back, but a real conversation should be had about whether to go a different direction to save some cap space. 

Those are the areas I see as being most interesting to watch for the 49ers this offseason. Yes, other positions are also worth keeping an eye on, such as what they do at LB behind Warner and Greenlaw and backup TE. But realistically those will likely be filled by some combination of cheap FAs (potentially their own) and/ or mid to late draft picks. I doubt Al-Shaair will be back as he should be able to get a pretty decent contract somewhere else (say, the Texans?). 

So, in summary, aside from the RFAs/ ERFAs they have, I think Brendel and Gipson should be the main priority of their own players to retain. After that, unless guys like Moseley, Omenihu or Ebukam don't see much of a market and can be brought back fairly cheaply, I would then be focusing on some of their mid-tier depth pieces, in particular on their DL and Brunskill. 

I'm then seeing the following positions as being the key priorities for FA (i.e. other teams FAs) and the draft:

• A good starting calibre DT
• 1 or 2 good rotational DEs (ideally one that can be a good starter, though the team will also be expecting Drake Jackson to step up)
• A RT to either be the clear cut starter (probably FA) or to compete (could be draft or FA)
• A couple of outside CBs, one FA and one draft, to push Lenoir and compete for 3rd and 4th CB spots
• A vet QB for insurance
• A young LB to groom (#3 LB this year and eventual replacement for Greenlaw).

Creating Cap Space

Courtesy of the folks over at 49erscap.com, they are currently projecting that the 49ers have just shy of $10M in cap space for 2023 following the various adjustments post the 2022 season. 

That isn't a lot of room to manoeuvre and bring back the players I outlined above, or to sign any outside FAs plus their draft class. The 49ers will need find ways to bring their current cap liability for the 2023 season down. 

Looking at the players under contract I can't see anyone I would want to let go of to create space. Javon Kinlaw is pretty much the only player I believe isn't worth his contract right now, but his contract is fully guaranteed so the 49ers would save nothing by releasing him. However, if they could find someone to trade for him and take on his $2.7M base salary, I'd probably do it. 

One easy avenue to see the 49ers saving some 2023 cap space is through the extension of Nick Bosa. The 49ers will of course do everything in their power to make this happen this offseason, and Bosa seems quite content to stay with the 49ers, so it is hard to mimagine both sides not getting something done. Bosa currently counts for $17.9M against the 2023 cap, and while he will likely earn around double that per season on his new deal, they can also structure the deal to decrease the 2023 cap hit. The question then comes down to how much they want to push into future years. The problem the 49ers will face though is an extension for Bosa likely won't happen swiftly. Based on past experience we should expect this to get done late July/ early August, around the time training camp starts. So they can't rely on this cap space being made available ahead of FA.

I see two other obvious candidates for a restructure and possible extensions:

• Christian McCaffrey. Much of his $12M base salary/ workout bonus can easily be converted to signing bonus to create cap space.
• Charvarius Ward: Yes, he was only signed last off-season to a 3-year deal. But the deal only had a relatively modest signing bonus and large salaries in years 2 and 3. Given the quality of his play last season the 49ers should feel comfortable converting much of his $13.5M base salary to signing bonus, and potentially even consider an extension. 

The team could likely free up around $15M to $20M with the above three deals.

There is of course also the potential of restructuring some of their biggest stars on long term contracts, such as Trent Williams, Fred Warner, George Kittle and Arik Armstead (the four of which are currently slated to count the most against the 2023 cap). However, each of those players already has prorated signing/ restructure bonuses in excess of $5M per season, and pushing that higher also comes with undeniable future cap risks (see Ford, Dee). 

It is also worth mentioning that Aiyuk is also now eligible for a contract extension. However, I would be shocked if the 49ers agree to work out an extension with Aiyuk this offseason given they have the 5th year option for next season.

So that's my run down of the 49ers internal offseason moves. What do you agree or disagree with?

I will also be providing future articles on my thoughts about potential FA and draft targets, as I'm sure razor will be. So lots of fun discussions to be had coming up!