Friday, June 10, 2022

Overrated/ Underrated 49ers Storylines


By Scooter_McG

Despite getting to the NFCCG last season and not having a first round pick, the 49ers have managed to keep themselves one of the big storylines of the offseason around the NFL. Some of these storylines have been downright laughable. I thought it might be fun to take a look at some of the 49ers offseason storylines and give my take on which ones are/ were overrated or overblown and which ones have been underrated or not given the attention they likely deserve.  

Overrated: The impact of Jimmy G still being on the roster. This storyline has died down since the draft, but between the start of free agency and the draft there was a lot of fan angst around how holding onto Jimmy G was impacting the 49ers ability to sign free agents. While it is true that getting JG off the books frees up cap space, it is highly unlikely the 49ers were ever going to be big players in free agency outside of their one marquee signing in Charvarius Ward. And if the 49ers really wanted to sign other free agents they could have - there were other options open to them to free up cap space immediately. The lack of spending in free agency (aside from Ward) was an organisational decision that had little to do with Jimmy G. 

Underrated: The 49ers moves at CB. It seems like every year that 49ers fans are clamouring for the team to go out and get CBs, whether it be in free agency or the draft (or both). In recent years the team has largely resisted putting premium resources into the position, with the exception of signing Richard Sherman in 2018. So it comes as a little bit of a surprise to me that 49ers fans aren't making more of the moves at CB the 49ers have made this offseason. Going out and getting Charvarius Ward is obviously the big move - he may not be widely considered an elite player or a household name, but over the past three years he has quietly been one of the best CBs in the NFL while showcasing a skillset that matches with what the 49ers do at CB. They also brought back Jason Verrett, who when healthy has shown he can play at a very high level. The outside CB position has now gone from a big question mark to one with a legitimate top end CB, two veterans that have proven to be good CBs when healthy (Verrett and Moseley) and last years 3rd round pick (Thomas) who showed promise at the back end of last season. Add in the boomerang Dontae Johnson and some day 3 draft picks and it's now a strong and deep group, and should be a team strength. Obviously slot CB is the big question mark following Williams' departure, but Williams had also shown signs of not being the player he used to be. The 49ers have a number of options available to fill the spot and they have shown in the past they can find lesser known players to fill that role admirably. 

Overrated: Any Trey Lance story. I get it - he's taking over at QB for a team that went to the NFCCG. He's last years 3rd overall pick and a guy the 49ers traded three 1sts for, but has very limited experience. It's a storyline. But man... the media circus of big takes ostensibly dissecting who and what he is (or isn't) has been ridiculous. It is of course largely driven by one report quoting a source that claims 49ers coaches weren't impressed with Lance last year. In and of itself that was newsworthy. But the way it has blown up has been ridiculous, with seemingly every NFL media personality needing to one-up the last guy with their strong take on Lance. We'll see in due course who and what Trey Lance is. Big takes from anyone after seeing 2 NFL starts as a rookie is just seeking attention. 

Underrated: The team is still good and doesn't actually need Lance to be great. In all the bloviating about Lance, what seems to get lost is that the 49ers don't need Lance to come in and be a world beater from the jump. He just needs to not be rubbish while he develops. The 49ers have a strong group of playmakers on offense that just need Lance to get the ball into their hands in space, and we know Shanahan will build his offense off the back of the running game. The 49ers defense has been good for three straight years and the core of that defense remains intact (and as mentioned above, the CB position has been improved). So long as Lance avoids making a lot of costly turnovers and can do his part in keeping the offense moving the team should be fine while Lance develops and gains experience. 

Overrated: Deebo wants out. To be honest, this is still a storyline to be watched. But prior to the draft there was a lot of media time spent trying to dissect what went wrong between the 49ers and Deebo, and speculating that the relationship was soured beyond repair. Since the draft came and went with Deebo still on the 49ers roster the signs have been pointing towards the two sides working positively towards a deal. We'll have to wait and see what happens, but regardless, it would appear the pre-draft narrative was overblown.        

Underrated: Nick Bosa's (lack of) extension talks. The media storm surrounding Deebo's contract extension has taken the limelight off the other big name player on the 49ers is eligible for an extension - Bosa. What is notable is that whenever questions have been asked about the extension the answer has been that negotiations are yet to commence. If true, that's surprising. While Bosa is under contract for two more years (with the 49ers picking up the 5th year option) I would be somewhat surprised if Bosa is happy to play 2022 under his current deal. If he is then great, but for both the 49ers and Bosa it would seem getting discussions on a new deal started sooner rather than later would benefit both sides.  

Appropriately Rated: The 49ers OL. As a bonus, I'll add this one in. This, for me, is the one big 49ers storyline that is getting an appropriate amount of weight. The retirement of Alex Mack and loss of Laken Tomlinson in free agency opens up some big holes in the middle. The one starting interior OL retained is Brunskill, who most people would agree is a player the team ordinarily would hope to upgrade on. Adding to the OL question marks is RT Mike McGlinchey who is returning from a serious injury. Despite these losses and question marks the 49ers have not gone out this offseason and put significant resources into the OL. Instead, the team seems content to promote from within and add competition through day 3 draft picks/ UDFAs and low cost free agents. It's a bold strategy and it may work out, but it is a big risk to take especially with a young QB taking the reins.  

46 comments:

  1. Great write up, Scooter. My opening day offensive line:
    Williams/Banks/Brendel/Moore/McGlinchey(Skule if he's unavailable.)

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    1. Thanks razor. I think Brunskill will start at either center or RG.

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    2. I'd be very surprised if Brunskill beats out Brendel for the center job. You're probably right about RG though. I'm anxious for someone to step up and relegate him to the bench.

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  2. Agree on Bosa, Scooter. It is strange that no movement towards a new contract has occurred. I wonder if Jimmy G is the issue; although if he is, the solution is simple - release him. Do you think Lynch's pride is getting in the way of releasing Jimmy G? JL seems like a humble guy, but you never know.

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  3. I fully expect Bosa to get his deal just prior to the start of training camp. 5 years at $31 million a year, $80 million guaranteed. Structurally they'll be able to accomplish it through option bonuses just like Warner's deal.

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  4. If iron sharpens iron, our defensive line should be one of the sharpest in the league.

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  5. Excellent, Scooter. In an era of increasingly hot takes and "anyone can write" internet, this is one of best articles I've read in any Niner media sites this off-season.

    Regarding the Bosa story, here is my hot take ;) Judging from the nonchalance, negotiations *are* taking place, but all parties are keeping a lid on it to prevent it from becoming Deebo Part II.

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    1. Thanks Rib. Unfortunately the media these days is far more concerned with "clicks" or viewer numbers than anything else.

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  7. Will Gould still be the FG kicker this season?

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    1. I suspect he will be. I imagine if they were thinking of moving on they would have released him already now its post June 1 and brought in a replacement.

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    2. Maybe we draft Ruggles next year.

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  8. Riddick is suggesting that the Seahawks pick up Jimmy G when he is released. He feels that Jimmy G would be an upgrade and would be well-suited to work with the new OC who uses McVay/KS concepts. Of course he feels it is only worthwhile if the Hawks can get a substantial discount over Jimmy's current compensation.

    https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2022/06/11/louis-riddick-seahawks-should-be-all-over-that-if-49ers-cut-jimmy-garoppolo/

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    1. I remember when Shanny first got here we had to go into the season with two backups.

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    2. Why assume Jimmy is being released?

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    3. @eMJay: Money is the obvious reason but so is avoiding a bad locker room dynamic.

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    4. Jimmy is loved in the LR. Money isn't an issue, everyone is under contract.

      Take your personal opinions out of it.

      Jimmy will get traded, thats the only way he's off the team, they didn't hold onto him thru June just to cut him. Theres always injuries during TC, or even into the season...you have a QB but his knee and out for the season and they'll come knocking.

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    6. Money is an issue. The 49ers currently have next to no wiggle room with the cap heading into the season and will at least need to extend Deebo, if not Bosa.

      If the 49ers can't find a trade partner for JG then releasing him is absolutely on the table no matter what the 49ers brass may be saying right now.

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    7. Deebo is under contract this year, Bosa is under this year and next. When they extend Deebo, his amount for this year will stay the same, they aren't increasing his 2022 salary. He will get a signing bonus and how that impacts the cap will be determined, but his 2022 salary isn't changing...nor do they have to sign him any time soon.

      Bosa will probably start the season under the current deal and they may extend him during the season or after, but he too has his deal set for the next two years.

      They don't need to free up all this cap room to sign these guys.

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    8. Please look at AJ Browns contract vs Deebos contract. AJ Brown has a cap hit this year of 5.6M, and thats post trade/signing, whereas Deebo's is 4.9. This shows that they can sign Deebo this year and it won't balloon his cap hit.

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    9. They still have zero wiggle room for in season moves.

      It makes no sense to hold onto JG.

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    10. @eMJay: What personal opinions? As Scooter is saying money is an issue. With regards to the locker room - do you think it is a good idea to split the locker room in supporting the starting QB? Jimmy is loved in the locker room and, by all accounts, a great leader. But the front office has made the choice to go with Lance and the support from players needs to be behind the new guy and not the prior incumbent. This is especially true because Lance is young and inexperienced and the FO needs to put him in the best position possible on all fronts.

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  9. Congratulations Scooter, another well written analysis.
    * My biggest concern is the O-Line. Other than TW, every position has questions that need to be answered before the regular season.
    * Two rookie O-linemen on my watch list are, Spencer Buford and Dohnovan West. IMO, Both need conditioning in the gym and pro coaching Both may push for playing time late this season, but more likely will contribute next year.
    * UDFA RB Jordan Mason is, IMO, a sleeper than is going to surprise and be another 9er steal.
    Mason highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97PbnO8dmsk

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    1. Thanks GEEP. Brendel is obviously a guy that will have a microscope on him, and the center spot in particular will be of interest, but the main guy on the OL I will be watching for is Jaylon Moore. If he can win a starting spot at RG that should bode well for the OL as a whole.

      If Mason is another UDFA steal and plays a big role in 2022 then the 49ers draft philosophy needs some serious re-thinking. Because that would likely mean they have wasted two third round picks on RBs in consecutive years.

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    2. Scooter
      RE Mason:
      I would agree with you, but point out that IMO, lance will operate from the shotgun, VS under center. I believe Trey Sermon, Tyrion Davis-Price and Jordan Mason's college QB's all operated from the shotgun, so they all have that experience and all three fit a run first, inside zone. Elijah Mitchell was successful with JG under center, running an
      outside zone, but not as successful running inside.
      We'll see how that works out, but that's why I believe Mason could be a sleeper



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    3. Scooter
      RE Jaylon Moore: Yea, I think he'll push Daniel Brunskill. I'll be surprised if Brunskill is still the 9er stating RG after
      the bye (if that long). IMO, he fits best as a swing tackle?

      What's your opinion of Spencer Burford? Looks like if he spends a year with Foerster and a year in the gym, he could compete for the RG position?

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    4. I like the Burford pick. I wouldn't be surprised if he is the starting RT in 2023. I'd be looking to try him at OT first but with swing OT/OG capability year 1, but only move to OG full time if he can't cut it at OT.

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    5. Yep, I think Burford replaces McGlinchey in 2023.

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  10. Frsom the Artic Circle, I am so far behind on the Niner news.

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  11. David Lombardi
    @LombardiHimself
    ·
    2h
    49ers special teams coordinator Brian Schneider says LB Oren Burks, S George Odum and returner Ray-Ray McCloud were his top-ranked special teams free agents at their respective positions. SF signed all three.

    "I've never been around anything where it all works out like that."

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    1. Hard to know how much of that is coach speak, but I do expect each guy was high on the STs wish list.

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  12. I'd say the difference between the 9er 2021 ST and the 2022 ST, will be two W's in the win column, VS two L in the 2021 Loss column

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    1. No doubt, wasn't one of the Seattle loses basically all on special teams? Fake punt and then fumbled k/o?

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  13. Tartt to the Eagles. 49ers won't be bringing him back.

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  14. Thanks Scooter. It might be unfair but I'll always associate him with that dropped pass. Basically we beat the Super Bowl champs three times last year, twice at SoFi.

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    1. Oh, it's fair alright but I also remember a TD saving play where he took the proper angle and balled out to make it. I think it was a must win game too, and we won.

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  15. Safe to say the 49ers soured on Tartt.

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  16. So now the question is.....Who will start at SS for the 9ers?
    If he's recovered from a torn Achilles, I see the more athletic Tarvarius Moore starting. Talanoa Hufanga will play a rotational role and George Odum will play on special teams.

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    1. Moore has yet to demonstrate he can consistently take the proper angles to bring down the ball carrier.

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  17. It's now June 18 2022. The 9ers drafted Drake Jackson as their first
    draft pick. By waiting until after June 1st to cut Ford, the 9ers saved
    $1.12 Mil. in cap space for the season and yet Dee Ford has still NOT BEEN CUT? Has JL, or the 9e FO explained WHY? Do the 9ers receive any benefit(s) by waiting?

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    1. Makes me wonder if they need to wait for him to be cleared medically.

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    2. He was scheduled to take his physical during the week of June 5-11. Evidently he didn't study hard enough to pass or there's an injury settlement negotiation ongoing. Given the seriousness of the injury, I'm leaning towards him not physically being able to be cleared.

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    3. Interesting thought, Razor. Never considered it.

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  18. LETS HOPE HE'S RIGHT!
    George Kittle Guesses Deebo Samuel, 49ers Agree to New Contract 'In Three Week......
    "Something crazy could happen. I could be eating my words in two weeks. But the Niners have done every major contract—mine, Fred Warner's—the week before the season started. So, my guess is in three weeks we'll hear news of it, but I have no idea," Kittle said, via Logan Mullen of 95.7 The Game.
    https://sports.yahoo.com/m/ebeb37df-4c62-3ead-a073-194944808517/george-kittle-guesses-deebo.html

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    1. As he says, it's been their modus operandi.

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Breaking

  Jeremy Fowler @JFowlerESPN · 2m Source: the #49ers and corner Deommodore Lenoir have reached a five-year, $92-million extension.