By Scooter_McG
The 49ers enter week 17 still holding their playoff destiny in their own hands - winning out will see them make the playoffs regardless of other results. This week should be a very winnable game against a 4-11 Texans team, however, the last game of the season will be against the Rams who may need to win their final game to secure the division crown, which could make that game a challenging one.
Further complicating matters, the team that presents the most risk of putting a dent in the 49ers playoff hopes should they not win out is the Saints, who have two winnable games to close out the season against the Panthers and Falcons. Should the 49ers finish with the same record as the Saints in a fight for the 7th seed, the Saints would take the spot. And if it were a three way tie with the Saints and Eagles, the 49ers would still be the odd team out despite having beaten the Eagles previously.
Which highlights the importance of both of these next two games for the 49ers. They can't really afford to lose either of them, and if they do lose one, then they have to hope the Saints drop a game against a lesser opponent. Not exactly an ideal time to be relying on a rookie QB with only one start to his name, but that is how it is shaping up after Jimmy G injured his thumb against the Titans last week.
As might be expected of a team that only has 4 wins on the season, the Texans are not a good football team. However, given the situation, the 49ers cannot overlook the Texans. This is a must win game and they should leave nothing on the table.
Here is what I will be keeping an eye on in this one.
Battle of the rookie QBs. Despite Shanahan's efforts to keep people guessing, it seems highly unlikely that Trey Lance won't make his second start of the season this week. His first start was very much a mixed bag against the Cardinals, but in the end was largely impeded by a number of back breaking penalties that put the team well behind the chains on numerous occasions, as well as a number of failed short yardage attempts on 3rd and 4th downs (including one on the goal line). That game also featured Lance as a pseudo RB far too often for anyone's liking.
This time around Lance will benefit from having George Kittle and Jeff Wilson Jr back in the lineup, as well as a rejuvenated Aiyuk, a (hopefully) healthier Mitchell, and an explosive RB option in Deebo (who was being used almost exclusively as a WR last time Lance played).
All eyes will be on Lance in this one, to see how much improvement he has made in the 12 weeks since his last start. There has been plenty of positive remarks from players, coaches and front office personnel in recent weeks regarding his progress, and hopefully that translates to the game. For Lance, it will be important to remember he doesn't have to do it on his own - he can lean on the running game and getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers in space to settle in.
The Texans will also be playing a rookie QB. Davis Mills has had an up and down season, making nine starts with 2 wins. While his record isn't good, and he has had a couple of real stinkers, in games where he has played well he has played very well. For a 3rd round rookie, he has shown enough that you imagine the Texans would be feeling pretty happy with the idea of moving forward with him at QB. Importantly, he's also gotten better the more he's played, and has put together a stretch of pretty good performances. The 49ers can't afford to assume Mills will hand them the game, and they will need to be on their game to put him off rhythm and stall the Texans passing attack.
Turnovers will tell the tale. I said the same last week heading into the Titans game - the 49ers needed to avoid turnovers. Jimmy G didn't listen and the 49ers lost largely off the back of his mistakes. It will be imperative the 49ers don't repeat that this week.
The Texans are 3-2 when the win the turnover battle, 1-9 when the either tie or lose the turnover battle. In those three wins where they won the turnover battle, they accounted for 11 of their 24 total takeaways on the season. Their two losses when they won the TO battle accounted for another 7. That is, five games accounted for 75% of their takeaways. They come in bunches for the Texans, and they rarely win if they don't win the turnover battle.
For the 49ers, they are 1-5 when they lose the turnover battle, with their sole victory being the opener against the lowly Lions. They are 7-2 if they either win or tie the turnover battle. It isn't rocket science - simply holding onto the ball will go a long way to winning this game.
Run, run and run some more. If winning the turnover battle is the most obvious key to victory, then running the ball is a very close second. It is no secret that the 49ers are significantly more successful when they can control the game through running the ball. The 49ers boast the 7th most rushing yards in the NFL and 3rd most rushing TDs.
This week they get to go up against a very poor Texans run defense which has allowed the 30th most rushing yards, 31st most rushing TDs, and 27th highest yards per rush (at 4.7 yards per carry). There should be no reason for the 49ers not to look to run the ball down the Texans throats in this one, especially given Trey Lance is almost certain to be in at QB. In fact, the addition of Lance, combined with Mitchell, Wilson and Deebo, should make for a very dynamic and unpredictable backfield.
However, I will add one caveat - they should not look to over use Lance as a runner. A few runs is fine, but there is no reason to risk getting Lance injured again by using him as a volume runner.
Take away Cooks. The Texans offense is, overall, quite talent poor. In fact I would go so far as to say that there is really only one skill position player you really need to worry about. Brandin Cooks has 80 catches on the season - the next highest pass catcher is RB David Johnson with 29. And their rushing attack is feeble. They rank bottom of the league in total rushing yards, and 31st in terms of yards per attempt (3.4). None of their top RBs is averaging over 4 yards per carry (Burkhead leads the group at 3.8 YPA).
The 49ers should make sure to have Cooks double covered at all times and force the Texans to look to their lesser stars to make plays. That should put a lot of pressure on Mills and could lead to some opportunities for turnovers.
Yep, Mills was a guy I would have taken in the later rounds rather than spend a 1st on Jones.
ReplyDeleteMills arrived at Stanford in 2017 from high school as the #3 rated pocket passing QB. Recovery from the gruesome leg injury that he sustained in his senior HS year occupied his redshirt freshman year and his sophomore year.
DeleteAs a junior, he started 8 games in a injury-depleted Cardinal team in 2019 and played well. I thought he was clearly the best Cardinal QB since Kevin Hogan but with far superior arm talent.
He started 5 games in the COVID-shortened 2020 year and played very well, winning close games and guiding the Cardinals to a 4-1 record.
I really liked his accuracy of ball placement, decision making and ability to learn from his mistakes. He's also fairly athletic for QBs.
I thought he had a high ceiling but unproven/inexperienced because, like Lance, had started a small number of games (14 games). I thought he'd be drafted earlier than he was. Maybe teams got scared because of his one serious injury in high school.
He has improved steadily this season from a 2 TD and 5 INT performance in his first three games to 10 TD and 4 INT in the last 8 games. John McClain of the Houston Chronicle commented that the time he was benched in favor of Tyrod Taylor really helped him study the game from the sidelines and fix some of his issues. Hopefully, it will be the same case with Lance.
Bill Belichick's ability to mess with rookie QBs is legendary and is a good test of a rookie's progress. Mills became the first rookie QB to throw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against Bill's Patriots.
Yep, you and me were about the only ones around that liked him. I thought he was the best bang for buck quarterback if you were looking strictly for a pure pocket passer.
DeleteI remember Prime Time betting me $200 Trask would be picked in the top 15. I liked Mills way better than him.
DeleteRazor,
DeleteFor a mid round QB to become the starter, so much depends on luck and team situation (coaching and other players on offense). I'm surprised that Mills has developed reasonably well considering the putrid situation in Houston. Culley is not much of a QB developer -- doesn't even seem to have the personnel management skills needed of a HC (e.g., the benching of Justin Reid in the game against the Jets due to some disagreement on football issue).
I think that Mills should have a long NFL career if he stays healthy, perhaps as a solid backup.
A good contrast to Mills is Wilson. I recall your pointing out Wilson's skills sometime in October, 2020. So I watched a BYU game and Wilson's live arm talent just leapt out off the screen -- in contrast to Mills' more deliberate style and intermediate-range throws. I recall telling you after watching that game that Wilson was a sure top-10 pick IMO.
Both Wilson and Mills have comparable talent (or lack thereof) around them on offense. I will be watching the progress of both these two rookie QBs with interest.
Not taking into consideration their situations, how would you compare the two rookie quarterbacks; Mills and Jones?
DeleteMills has surprised me with how well he's played overall this year. But I think ultimately he will be a guy that is best as a backup.
DeleteConsidering the situations in which they ended up, Mills has exceeded expectations somewhat more than Jones, although both have exceeded my expectations.
DeleteJones came in as a polished and experienced QB playing for a team with talent level of what could be a NFL minor-league team. He went to a team with a good running game, great defense and coaches who have done a good job creating well-defined reads or him to execute and have not asked much from him.
Mills only started about a dozen games in college and went to a team in turmoil with porous O line and sub-par talent at all positions on offense. He has a first-time HC who is not known for scheming up game plans that helps QBs sycceed.
As Matt Barrows pointed out, what has really set Mills apart from all the rookies is his speed of release of the ball to compensate for the lousy protection he gets.
"Next Gen Stats gives him the fifth-fastest release, 2.62 seconds, among qualifying quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus also ranks him favorably at 2.51 seconds, which puts him between a pair of prominent throwers, the Buccaneers’ Tom Brady (2.34) and Jimmy Garoppolo (2.55)."
OTOH, Lance in his limited play has held the ball the longest in the league (ahead of Jalen Hurts and Jameis Winston) until he was recently overtaken by Ian Book.
If he pans out, Mills could end up being a better version of Jimmy G and Cousins. That's why before the momentous trade, I was wondering if Niners would draft him late in the second round.
Happy New Year to all the Niners fans here. Thanks for writing this preview on New Year's eve, Scooter!
ReplyDeleteAs in the case of its game against less talented teams, Niners should win this one handily if they don't turn over the ball. However, Shanny's team has not been great after a bye or a mini-bye like this one, especially at home. So I only bet a few bucks on the Niners beating the spread.
To Brandin Cooks, I'd add the tight end, Brevin Jordan, the rookie from The U, as a potential playmaker. He seems to have come on strong in the 5 games he has called up to play at the end of the season and scored 3 TDs.
Happy New Year to you too Mood!
DeleteTo be fair, it was already NY day in Oz when I wrote this preview 🙂
Not a bad way to spend NY day either - watching the college playoffs. Though the games were predictably one sided.
That's true, I forgot that you are already in the future :)
DeleteYeah, I bet on a Harbaughcalyptic upset and lost :(
I for one expect Lance to perform beyond brilliantly. Using so much draft capital and reading about all the accolades comes with high expectations.
ReplyDeleteIn all actuality I need to see a marked improvement from his first start. A win doesn't mean he did well, nor does a loss mean he failed.
"I for one expect Lance to perform beyond brilliantly."
DeleteSuch expectations based on the draft price is a sure way to set oneself up for disappointment, IMO!
You might want to temper your expectations, under. I am sure that running the scout team has been beneficial for Trey Lance, but it doesn't necessarily prepare him to run the 49ers offense, and that's the biggest problem, IMO.
DeleteThink about it. The way to get better at running a specific offense throughout the season is through repetition. The more times you run through the playbook, and practice the same plays, with the same potential reads, and the same progressions, over and over and over again, the better you get, and especially with the pass plays that are timing based.
This is why, as a general rule, the 3rd string quarterback usually assumes the roll of the scout team QB. You don't need your primary backup QB to be familiar with the opposing team's offense, you need your primary backup QB to be as familiar as possible with your own offense. Every NFL QB will tell you that it's really through multiple reps (repetitions), over and over again, throughout the first third of the season, that these plays become second nature, and it's only once the plays become second nature that a QB tends to find his best groove.
I expect to see some improvements with Trey's game, but I don't think we'll start to see a drastic difference until Trey stops running the scout team, and starts working on Kyle's offense through repetition, ideally along with the first string offense. And the same goes for his OL. Pass protection for a mobile QB is a different beast, and in reality it almost it requires a completely different blocking technique.
Something tells me that Trey isn't as well prepared to take over as he could have been if he was more involved in the 49ers weekly game plans, and I have a sneaky suspicion that this is the main reason why it appears that Kyle would rather start an injured Garoppolo who knows the offense, rather than a healthy Lance who doesn't.
So I had previously thought Lance may have been getting some reps in as the backup QB as well, but Shanahan actually confirmed he has only been getting scout team reps.
DeleteHowever, Shanahan and McDaniel both outlined that on the scout team they are still running plays from the 49ers playbook. They are just asking the QB to execute in a manner similar to the QB they will be facing. So suggesting he hasn't been getting reps in the 49ers system is highly inaccurate. In fact, by being the scout team QB he is getting far more reps in the 49ers system during the week than he would be as a typical backup QB.
Not enough, Scooter.
DeletePeople wonder why Kyle used Trey as a glorified RB in his first start, and this is exactly the reason. There aren't enough snaps to go around in practice every day to both prepare your backup QB to run the weekly game plan and to also use that same backup QB to prepare the defense for the opposing team's offense. Sure, Trey gets a few reps here and there, but it's not enough to learn the offense like the back of his hand, it's not enough to hone in on the timing, and it's not enough to build chemistry with his receivers.
People wonder why the 49ers professional WR's have such a hard time catching Trey's passes, it's because they don't play with him on a regular basis, so they aren't used to catching his ball. It's the same principle as that, only apply it to the entire offense.
If Trey had to take a written test, he'd probably pass, but it wouldn't flow freely. He'd have to rack his brain, and you can't have your QB racking his brain during the game. It needs to become as close to second nature as possible.
You'll see tomorrow. Trey will run Kyle's offense in fits and starts, and it will look a lot like wee 5, where he just isn't comfortable running the same offense as jimmy's been running all season.
Mark my words, Scooter.
It seems obvious that Kyle wasn't planning on playing Trey this season, isn't it?
DeleteHave you noticed how grouchy Kyle is again this week? He's acting like reporters are out of line simply because they keep asking about the QB situation, which is their job, BTW!
I am not sure Kyle is the right coach for Trey at this stage of his career. I think Kyle has been fighting this since the leadup to the draft. I think Kyle wanted Mac Jones, because he saw Mac Jones as the only rookie who was ready to take over for Jimmy THIS season. I think Kyle was ultimately overruled by Jed, who sided with John and the rest of the scouting dept, and then told Jed and John something along the lines of:
"OK fine, go ahead and draft Trey instead of Mac, but don't expect me to play him during his rookie season"
And Kyle is not doing everything he can to prepare Trey to start this season, even though Jimmy is the most injury prone QB in the league, and now Kyle has been caught with his pants down!
This is the way I have read this entire season, starting with the leadup to the draft, all the way until now.
DeleteIt's the only scenario that makes sense as far as I can decipher.
This is why this season seems like a waste of time to a lot of Niners fans.
DeleteKyle has mismanaged the QB situation starting last February, and the result of his mismanagement is an extremely talented team that is having to fight and scratch for a playoff birth, and now is having to lean on a rookie QB who clearly isn't prepared to run the offense.
Here's a question for you, Scooter:
DeleteWhy else would Kyle refuse to play Trey Lance even at the end of a blowout?
Kyle has had multiple opportunities to get Trey some playing time, and he refuses to do it, even at the end of a blowout victory!
Can you really explain this? Jimmy is the most injury prone QB in the league, but Kyle won't even pull him out when his team is up 18 points, and has the football in the opponents territory, on 1st & 5, with only 4:00 left in the game?
Unless you can come up with a better explanation, I'm going with Occam's Razor on all of this!
I have a buddy who at first tried to explain it away like this:
Delete"Well, maybe Kyle doesn't want to risk Trey's health either?"
And I said:
"So let me get this straight .... you think Kyle would rather risk missing the playoffs, rather than put his backup QB at risk of getting hurt, even though football is inherently a violent, risky sport?"
And my buddy was like .... "Yah, I guess that doesn't really make sense" LOL
The second paragraph was more in line with my thinking guys.
Delete"In all actuality"
I do think Trey will look more prepared tomorrow than week 5, but not by a lot. The good news is that the 49ers should be able to win tomorrow without Trey having to do much, which is why it's so surprising that Kyle wouldn't act a little more confident in his rookie QB.
DeleteScooter, McDaniel and Shanny are trying to cover their asses.
DeleteThat's nonsense that they are mostly running their own playbook on the scout team.
You must understand this is simply not true. If it is true, they are doing their defense a major disservice.
Think about it!
Kyle is a LIAR, BTW!
DeleteYou were spot on when you said it appears Kyle didn't plan on Trey playing this year. It's almost as if Shanahan may have said that...
DeleteAll of your griping essentially boils down to not liking the decision to sit Lance for a year. I get it and that's a valid viewpoint, but it doesn't mean the opposing view of having him sit and learn is actually wrong - just that you disagree with it. Viewed through the lens that this was Kyle's plan... then what they have done makes sense.
That's a fair point Scooter.
DeleteAnd my thing is that Kyle's plan made no sense, and that's why I am so irritated with it.
If it's true that they assessed what went wrong last season, and concluded that they needed to get better at the backup QB position (that's what we were told only after they decided to retain Jimmy), how did it make sense to draft a raw QB who wouldn't be ready to step in this season?
Doesn't that seem like they risked wasting an entire season, and now they are potentially paying the ultimate price?
That's all. I feel better now that at least I feel like you are listening to my point of view. I appreciate that, Scooter. I know you don't necessarily agree with me, but I feel better knowing that you hear what I am saying.
Cheers.
Actually it makes perfect sense to be using their own playbook. You'll find most teams run variants of the plays their opponents run. And there isn't sufficient time or resources to develop an opponent specific playbook and have the scout team learn it every week.
DeleteThe aim of scout team is to give the 1s a bunch of looks and play style similar to what their opponent will be running.
Here's an interesting article by an ex-scout team player about what the week looks like for a scout team player.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1341201-inside-a-nfl-practice-what-do-teams-players-do-to-prepare-for-week-ahead
You'll note he was asked to emulate how a specific player plays. Not to learn a whole new playbook. In fact, he was still learning his teams playbook through the week, with the rest of the team.
I really, really wish that Kyle had just embraced Trey Lance as the rookie starter, and taken it as a challenge, rather than having a defeatist attitude.
DeleteI think if Kyle had just embraced the challenge, knowing that Jimmy isn't a AQB who can be depended on, that the 49ers would be in a much better place right now, than they are now with an injured Garoppolo. The guy is just too expensive to be ALWAYS getting hurt!
How cool would it have been for Kyle to be the first Head Coach to win a Super bowl with a rookie QB? He almost did it with RG3. The Redskins made the playoffs with a rookie QB, and RG3 won both OROY, and made the Pro Bowl, as a rookie.
Of interest, did you know the Bears had Fields running scout team before he became the starter? It's not like it is unheard of. And it makes sense - the scout team QB simply gets way more snaps than the typical backup.
Deletehttps://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/scout-team-no-waste-of-time-for-justin-fields
Yah, I am sure some of the scout team is the same as their own playbook, but not really. There are very different reads, and things like that. Enough so that it doesn't prepare a QB in the same way.
DeleteI guess we'll see tomorrow, right?
Did you see how prepared Justin Fields looked when he first became the starter, compared to a month later?
DeleteYah, scout team or second string, either way isn't ideal, that's a very good point.
DeleteI do think a QB is better prepared to play in an emergency basis if he's helping them install their weekly game plans.
I think the ultimate mistake was holding on to Jimmy for this season. That's the mistake that will likely haunt them for years to come, IMO.
I hope you are right, Scooter.
We'll know much more after tomorrow. As of now, Trey Lance is the ultimate mystery man, lol.
BTW, Bears' fans have even been more vocal than me about their displeasure with the way Matt Nagy handled their QB situation, lol.
DeleteTomorrow is JUDGEMENT DAY in regards to Trey Lance's short term development track!
DeleteThat's for sure!
Protect the football, and run it down the Texans throat!
DeleteThen get ready for this Garoppolo/Lance circus again next week.
Ultimately, it all comes down to confidence.
DeleteIs Trey going to look confidently in command of Kyle's offense?
Looks like Panthers’ owner is embarrassed with the 7 year contract given to Matt Rhule. Should light up a fire, so a good chance Panthers beat the depleted saints tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI believe we will take care of business with the Texans tomorrow and clinch a playoff spot. Go niners! 31-13
I read that. Even before that it wasn't a given the Saints win out because divisional opponents are difficult no matter the records.
DeleteVideo highlights of Texans QB Davis Mills, when he was Stanford QB
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlMFf7pNT9U
Not just good accuracy outside the numbers, but very good ball placement where only the receiver can get it.
DeleteQuoting Matty B.:
"Jimmie Ward noted that Mills has an impressively quick release and isn’t afraid to throw the deep out, which can potentially strain the 49ers’ compromised cornerback situation. “I think he can read a defense, too,” Ward said. “I think he knows where he wants to go with the ball.” "
His old teammate Connor Weddington is on the Niners' PS.
2021 NFL Draft Evaluating Stanford QB Davis Mills
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdODD-kZ_us
Davis Mills Week 2 Highlights vs Browns
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=2I0UqrAYL4A
Lance sounds very different from he did at the beginning of the season -- much more confident.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/49ers/status/1477052330935676933
4 TE's active sounds like another 40 burger running game!
ReplyDeleteI hope Sermon gets some carries this week. He's a much better fit along side Lance!
ReplyDeleteHe won't.
DeleteBoy am I enjoying this Rams game! First Ramsey takes a punch at Rapp in the huddle, Stafford throws a pick six AND throws another pick into triple coverage. As he comes to the sideline, McVay has words and an expression similar to those he had when Goff was under center. LMAO!
ReplyDeleteMuch as it hurts me to say it, won't it be better for the Rams to win and clinch the Division, and likely resting their starters for next week's game against the Niners?
Delete100% Mood. I hope the Rams win.
DeleteRazor
ReplyDeleteNot only did I enjoy the Lams lose to the Ravens 7 to 13
but today, the Jets are beating TB 17 to 10 at half time.
**losing**
Delete