Sunday, October 31, 2021

Week 8 Post Match Review: 49ers at Bears


By Scooter_McG 

This was a must win game for the 49ers. While a loss wouldn't have put them out of mathematical contention, it certainly felt like a loss would crush any remaining spirit left in an increasingly dis-spirited looking team. 

It was also a critical game for Jimmy Garoppolo. While Kyle Shanahan maintained there is no QB competition "right now" during the week, and that Jimmy G remains the starter when healthy, it also felt like another performance similar to the one against the Colts would expedite the timetable for a QB competition. 

Not only did the 49ers get that all important win for team morale, Jimmy G was instrumental in it. 

To start the game the 49ers defense came out looking soft while Jimmy's offensive teammates continued to make mistakes that killed drives. But through it all Jimmy was playing some great football, standing tall in the pocket when he needed to, evading pressure when it came, and pushing the ball downfield with confidence. 

There wasn't a lot to show for it through the first half, with three FGs and one missed FG. But blame drops by Deebo and Sanu for two of the first three drives stalling, while the fourth and last drive before the half was one of JG's best all year as he hit Aiyuk on a quick slant with a defender right in his face then hit Deebo for 50 yards in stride deep down field. 

In the second half it was more of the same from JG, but this time it was matched by the rest of his offensive teammates. The first offensive drive of the second half looked like it was going nowhere but on 3rd and 20 Deebo ripped off an 83 yard catch and run on a WR screen down to the Bears 1-yard line. JG would then take it in on a short scamper on a heads up play by him, after Deebo came across too early. The next drive JG reeled off three straight first down passes, slinging a beauty to Deebo on the come back, then hitting Woerner and Juice for 10 yard pickups. Elijah Mitchell would then have two strong runs to score the TD, with nearly all of the 49ers players involved in pushing Mitchell forward on the TD run.

Up by just 1 point to start the next drive, JG hit Sanu over the middle for a nice gain, followed by a long run by Mitchell to the left (more on this later), then Jimmy threw another nice dart over the middle to Hasty to make it first and goal. Emphasising his rediscovered confidence, JG would then keep the ball on a zone read for the score that put the 49ers in a commanding lead late in the game.  

I've seen people compare this performance by Jimmy to some of his work in 2017, and from a confidence perspective I don't disagree. But unlike in 2017 this performance came with an understanding how to work within the system. And as Jimmy continued to play with confidence you could see the team around him gain in confidence. This was easily the best game Jimmy has played for the 49ers this season, and maybe for the past few seasons.

Here is what else stood out to me. 

The left side of the offense dominated. They put on an absolute clinic in run blocking down the left side in this one. The combination of Tomlinson, Williams, Woerner and Juice spring Mitchell for three 20+ yard runs with some exceptional blocking. And I shouldn't exclude Deebo and Aiyuk who also made some nice blocks downfield to allow extra yardage on those runs. Mitchel would finish with 137 yards on 18 carries (a career high in yards for Mitchell), and 92 of those yards would come on three perfectly executed runs to the left. 

The left side also kept Jimmy untroubled by the Bears pass rush all afternoon. 

Deebo is a monster... but also drops too many passes. I don't believe there is a better receiver in the NFL after the catch than Deebo. He is just as likely to make you miss as he is to run over you, and his instincts with ball in hand are as good as any running back. His 83 yard catch and run ignited the team to storm home in the second half. 

However, he was also partly to blame for the team going into the half down. He had two drops on the opening drive which undid some good work by JG and Sanu. He leads the NFL in drops. And a lot of them have been easy ones. 

He isn't the first premier WR the 49ers have had with issues consistently catching the ball - Terrell Owens used to have his issues with drops during his career. And like Owens you can forgive the drops to a degree due to how good he is otherwise, and how often he comes up big when it counts. But if he can cut back on the number of drops he will take his game to an even greater level.

Run defense is still a problem... but is personnel related. The 49ers had some issues stopping the run again this week. Admittedly a lot of that was trouble with Fields, and I will get to that in a bit, but they also had some issues up the middle with Herbert. 

Something I have been keeping track of with the 49ers defense after a slow start to the year stopping the run is who has been on the field at DT when these issues are present. And it is becoming clear in my eyes that the biggest culprits are Givens, Street and Kerr. Kerr struggled considerably weeks 1 and 2, and this week the biggest runs came when the 49ers had Givens and Street on the field. The biggest issues often came when Givens would get some penetration but Street was being blown off the ball (and into the LBs), leaving a huge hole to run into. Givens was also guilty of too often being shoved past the RB as his aggressiveness was too easily used against him. 

With Kinlaw out for the year the 49ers are going to be very reliant on DJ Jones and Armstead at DT. In fact Armstead was used almost exclusively at DT in this one, while DJ Jones was an absolute beast throughout, clogging the middle and making a number of stops for minimal gain. 

Can't contain Fields. Exacerbating the issues against the run, the 49ers reverted to allowing an athletic QB to consistently get around the edge defenders while also failing to prevent big gains through the middle on scrambles after the pass rush allowed big holes to escape. Fields ran for over 100 yards and a number of his runs were on key downs for big gains to extend drives. His TD run was particularly embarrassing for the 49ers defense as they had a number of opportunities to bring him down but whiffed. 

The 49ers should consider themselves very lucky that it looks like Kyler Murray may miss next weeks game. 

Can't give DPI penalties if you practice social distancing. This one seemed like a case of severe over correction by the 49ers secondary. Kudos for not allowing penalties to keep drives alive and give up big plays, but when it is at the cost of giving huge cushions to keep the ball in front of you that is not an ideal solution. You can't play scared like that and expect to beat good teams. If that is Undlin's answer to dealing with penalties he needs to be sacked. 

There is still plenty of work to do for the 49ers secondary. 

Final Thoughts

Winning can cure a lot of ills in football, and this was a 49ers team in desparate need of a cure. For one week at least the 49ers can enjoy a little bit of a pressure release. But it will all be undone if they lose again next week to the Cardinals. 

It was great to see Jimmy G and the offense play with a lot more freedom this week. They need to keep that up and build some momentum, because when the offense is operating freely and executing it can be very hard to stop. 

Despite being a 3W-4L team, pervesely the 49ers find themselves only a half game back from a playoff spot, currently held by a Carolina Panthers team that looks on tilt. And next week it looks like they will be facing a Cardinals team without Kyler Murray and JJ Watt. 

Despite the recent gloom surrounding the team they are by no means out of 2021 if they can hit their stride and play some consistently good football.    

41 comments:

  1. When there is zero pressure, almost every quarterback can thrive

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  2. I'd like to see us get players that can play man to man and marry it up to our pass rush. That's the kind of defense even Tom Brady struggles against.

    As for timely opponent injuries, welcome to our world.

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    1. They do take a similar approach with mobile QBs when the latter scramble to break the pocket. The zone coverage seem to quickly shift to man with the DBs getting "pasty" following the key receivers around.

      With both starting safeties out, Ryans may continue to play zone trying to keep things in front of the defenders, especially while the CBs undergo re-programming not to hug the receivers. Maybe a little more blitzing against the Old McCoy? Blitzing didn't seem to faze Fields a whole lot.

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    2. What they've been doing previously was fine, just need the DBs to not panic with the ball in the air. However, I don't think Norman is capable of playing that way. So if Moseley et al keeps playing aggressively and Norman gives a bit more cushion to keep it in front of him, that may work.

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    3. Norman gets a bad rap from us fans but people who study the film and whose views I trust (e.g., Whitner, Greg Cossell and Eric Crocker) have said that he's played well if he is considered to be a regular starter, and surprisingly well for street FA.

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  3. There are certain plays that can turn around a game or a season. Mitchel's motorcade into the end zone was energizing, Deebo long scamper after the catch was exhilarating but Ebukam sack of the elusive Fields had finality written all over it. The team played a good game but their best game has not been played yet.

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    1. This game turned on two Deebo plays - one just before the half and the 83 yard reception on their first drive of the second half. The team then gained confidence and energy - the whole feel of the game shifted thereafter. Hopefully that was just the energiser the team needed.

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  4. Looks like Jameis Winston is probably out for the season. What does everyone think we should do if the Saints come calling for Jimmy G?

    Something like a 5th round pick next year which becomes a 4th, based on Jimmy's playing time?

    I'm sure he would be open for New Orleans because Sean Payton is a heck of a coach but not sure he wants to play Brady twice a year :) Might also have to eat some of the Salary cap.

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    1. Knowing Lance isn't ready, I'd stick to the plan. Continue to get him plays in games where opportunities present themselves.

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    2. They aren't.

      NO runs a different offense.

      NO's cap is shit.

      NO has 3 qbs, one of which they gave a huge contract too (Hill).

      This is never happening, I regret spending the 15 seconds responding to a Madden GM post.

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  5. Excellent analysis as usual, Scooter. I particularly liked your observations on the run D. As I learned from listening to multiple interviews with Jim Washburn, the scheme needs the right kind of DT to make it work. He must have the size, strength and technique to stand up to double teams but also have the agility and lateral quickness for gap penetration to get enough QB pressure on third downs (not necessarily sacks). Have you noticed whether the D line is in tighter formations rather than wide 9 in base downs?

    I think Street may be a lost cause beyond sparingly used in rotation but I still have hope for Givens.

    Kinlaw is the wildcard. He had missed only one game out of 38 games (35 starts) in college. Few NFL players have played three years in college without missing a start. Also, it was a hip injury, not a knee issue like this one.

    Before the draft, I think the Niners' doctors figured that Kinlaw's knee arthritis is manageable thru his playing career. They are probably right. I'm hopeful that he will be back in full strength next season after missing most of his first two years.

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    1. Yep, I think Kinlaw is the key to next years defensive front coming full circle. I too believe his knee is manageable and fully expect him to be the best version of himself moving forward.

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    2. Thanks Mood.

      While Kinlaw hasn't lived up to his draft status as yet, he is a loss against the run. He's the second best run defending DT the 49ers have, after Jones (better than Armstead against the run at DT imo).

      Givens has potential. But he doesn't work well as part of a team right now - looks like he freelances a lot and is almost always focused on penetration. Good OL use this against him quite often to just ride him behind or to the side of the play.

      Street... is not good. Doesn’t penetrate at a high level and gets moved off the ball too easily.

      Kerr had a rough start to the season but has been better recently in limited snaps.

      The team needs Hurst to get healthy. He's their 3rd best DT right now behind Jones and Armstead.

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  6. The future is looking good for the Niners. They get Colt McCoy next week, no reason Bosa can't get 2 sacks and the niners get a win at home vs the Cards. The Rams game will be tough, and getting tougher with them getting Von Miller, but they always play up to and above LA, so this game can be winnable. They get the Jags, should be a win easily, and the Vikings, tough but winnable. Niners could be 7-4 at that point with a trip to Seattle where they owe Seattle a bit of revenge, Niners won the first meeting, lets be honest, and Seattle is in a lot worse shape than the Niners are. A healthy SF gets the W in Seattle and then its Bengals (probably a loss, but they just went down to the Jets..THE JETS!?) and then Falcons (awful), the Titans (no Henry, winnable), Texans (blowout!) and close the season in LA...errr...SF/Santa Clara south.

    All is not lost. Every game is winnable, the Rams obviously being the toughest, but no reason to think they can't split the series. Az is primed to go down, as it was SF held them to 17 and now no Watt or Murray. Seattle is technically the worst team in the West and RW is still has no timeline to return, needs his pin removed from his hand and to recover from that, and who knows how he'll be when its game time, lets just hope its 5 weeks out.

    Keep the faith if you want to call yourself Faithful

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    1. The trolls and the "unreasonables" with their shovels and pitchfork hounding Jimmy and baying for ShanaLynch's firing are upset at being held back for a week. Hopefully their frustrations will grow more after a win against Arizona next week.

      Meanwhile, McGlinchey needs to get ready for Von Miller on third downs...

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    2. Interesting that we haven't heard from 49reasons since the first half of the game.

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    3. Ha! Maybe someone should check up on him!

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    4. His internet banned him for exceeding a character limit on his posts...

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    5. "Niners could be 7-4 at that point with a trip to Seattle where they owe Seattle a bit of revenge, Niners won the first meeting, lets be honest, and Seattle is in a lot worse shape than the Niners are."

      Sure eMJay, IF Jimmy Garoppolo starts to play like he did yesterday, on a consistent basis, instead of playing the QB position well once every 3 games, on average, then sure, the 49ers could get to 7-4.

      My question to you is, why would you be confident that Jimmy can start to find some consistency? Even yesterday he had a very lackluster first half, and Jimmy has only had one consistent season, in 2019?

      Now, I'm not taking anything away from Jimmy's performance yesterday, but in some ways it even makes me more frustrated with him, because when he digs deep, he has the ability elevate the 49ers to elite status, but we only get THAT rendition of Jimmy in a handful of games nearly every season. \

      And BTW, if you guys want an example of a young QB developing as a rookie, look no further than Fields. The difference between his first start, and yesterday, are night and day.

      I am always happy to see the 49ers win, but they better figure out a way to get Trey Lance on the field, or next season automatically becomes a developmental season in my eyes.

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    6. My question to you 49lesions, why do you even follow this team? You obviously aren't a fan, you have zero positives and are 100% negative.

      Be gone.

      Go root for someone else and drive their fans crazy with your posts replying to your post replying to your post.

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  7. Oh crap! Von Miller to Rams :(

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    1. We've been expecting the Rams to end up in salary cap hell for the last few years, and all they've done is build a perennial contender, and this last deal just might put them over the top.

      I like the aggressive nature of Las Snead and Sean McVay, and the reason they've been able to maintain it is because they've hit on a high number of the few draft picks they've had to work with. Those players they draft only need to be role players as long as their offensive and defensive stars who they have either landed in trades, or through free agency, have pretty well all paid off, and are playing up to their elite status.

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  8. Since I went skiing and did't watch the game, a nice summary of the Bears game Scooter.
    It looks like that's the secret to the 9ers winning a game? I have to take one for the team and go skiing!

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  9. If the Rams don't win the Super Bowl this year it has to be considered an epic failure. I can't wait to see what happens.

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    1. I know this is sacrilege, but a part of me would be fine with them winning it and being rewarded for their aggressive approach.

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    2. Reminds me of the Eddie years when there was no salary cap.

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    3. Rams are doing the right thing for their aging super star and first-ballot HoFer. Also, Kronke has to do whatever is necessary to fill up the new stadium. I have to commend them for taking a chance.

      They are trying out a new model of roster building of trading high picks for proven starters and trusting that their (a few) second and (mostly) third day picks will pan out to fill out the roster.

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  10. Razor
    Hate to say it, but I have agree with you. I see Mugeek9er
    just post the Rams have traded with Denver for Von Miller,
    which raises the question, how the"F" did they fit him under their salary cap?

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    Replies
    1. Broncos ate his salary, but they had to jettison an underperforming veteran.

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    2. Also, LA has only a comp 3rd round pick before their 5th round pick next year...no 1st, no 2nd, no 4th, and a 3rd which might as well be a 4th as its going to be in the 100s.

      Team will eat salary cap hell soon.

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    3. Razor
      OK, thanks. Just getting caught up with the latest.
      No TV, radio or news at Tahoe. Just found out on the way home the 9ers beat the bears.

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    4. eMJay
      Rams have bet the farm on S/B or bust.

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  11. A few days a go I said that the 49ers could not be seriously viewed as a playoff team because of the poor product they had put on the field. This was borne out of stupid defensive pass interference penalties and Shanahan' stubbornness in changing from plays that were successful such as the running game in the first series against the Colts. Yesterdays game was refreshing obviously because of the win, but also, because Shanahan stayed with the running game which was successful. The run game helped keep less pass-rush pressure on Jimmy and opened some passing lanes for our receivers.

    I'm still not completely convinced that our team is playoff material since we beat a Bears team with a rookie Watts is out. But if we can't get a win when the Cards will be missing their star players, things will get very shaky again.

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  12. I'm still not completely convinced that our team is playoff material since we beat a Bears team with a rookie at QB. With Murray and Watts out next Sunday, we have a good chance at a win. But if we can't get a win when the Cards will be missing their star players, things will get very shaky again.

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    1. Wild Card aspirations are all that's left. The sixth slot right now belongs to the Saints at 5-2. The 7th slot is up for grabs by many teams at this point.

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    2. There is too much football left to be played (and many potential injuries to upset the best-laid plans of the franchises) before one is confident about the division winners, let alone the play-off line-ups.

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  13. Looks like we traded for a pass rush specialst. Charles Omenihu from the Texans.

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    1. That might be one of those trades that works out really well for the Niners.

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    2. I have to like this trade. He has another year remaining on his contract which gives enough time to evaluate him.

      Niners need to be flinging waves of pass rushers at Stafford. Bosa needs to play fewer snaps mid game so he can be fresher in the fourth quarter. However, I can see him lining up next to Bosa on TE stunts on third downs.

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    3. From TA: "Omenihu, the 2019 fifth-round pick tied J.J. Watt for the team lead in QB hits (16) last season, and he currently leads the Texans in pressure rate (13.8 percent)."
      That number would lead the Niners (Bosa at 12%, IIRC).

      From NN: "At 6’6, 275 pounds, Omenihu ran a 4.92 40-yard dash but jumped 36.5 inches in the vertical with a 4.36 20-yard shuttle. That tells you he’s explosive and can change directions."

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  14. Ted Nguyen on TA has a nice breakdown on outside zone runs (18/19 Zorro) runs against the Bears highlighting the blocking of Juice and Woerner.

    One thing I have learned to fear about Kyle's scheme is that one these skill players who are elite blockers become unavailable, his offense often seem to be non-functional. Since Juice is an unicorn, how is going to be replaced? Hokit does seem to be the answer. Same as Kittle eventually. Very encouraged to see Woerner's steady development. He can give Kittle a breather on early downs.

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2024 Season Schedule

           Week1- Win                         Week 10- Win Week 2 - Win                        Week 11- Loss Week 3 - Win                   ...