By Scooter_McG
Week 1 of the regular season is finally here! The 49ers travel to Detroit on Sunday to open their season - the first of two away games on the East Coast to start the season. The 49ers are expected to rebound from a torrid 2020 season that was marred by injuries, while their week 1 opponents are widely expected to be in for a tough year under their new head coach Dan Campbell.
Even so, the 49ers have historically started their seasons slow under Kyle Shanahan, in particular on offense. This is one the 49ers should win, and win fairly easily, but anything can happen week 1.
Here are the key matchups I think will decide this one.
49ers defensive line vs Lions offensive line. The 49ers defensive line will be one to watch most weeks to be fair, but the season opener will see the strength of the 49ers defense matched against what many pundits believe to be the strength of the Lions team. However, starting LT Taylor Decker will miss week 1 which will be a big out for the Lions.
The absence of Decker will see Nick Bosa matched up against rookie first round OT Penei Sewell. Sewell was crowned as a future All Pro before even being drafted, but he has struggled some in pre-season while playing at RT. In this game he will move back to his more natural LT position but it will be a tough introduction to the NFL against Bosa and the 49ers pass rush.
The Lions skill position players are led by Jared Goff, second year RB D'Andre Swift, WR Tyrell Williams (who missed all of 2020) and rookie WR Amon-Ra St Brown. That is to say the Lions offensive "weapons" are nothing that should strike fear into a good defense. For the Lions offense to make a game of this one they will need the offensive line to keep the 49ers defensive line quiet and pave the way for their offense.
Both Javon Kinlaw and Kevin Givens have been held out of practice this week and are in doubt for week 1. Even so I expect the 49ers defensive line to prove too good for a Lions offensive line without Taylor Decker, have Jared Goff runnig for his life and putting the ball in harms way, and for the Lions offense to struggle to move the ball most of the game as a result.
George Kittle vs the Lions linebackers and safeties. In all the excitement of the 49ers QB situation, the running game and the anticipated emergence of Aiyuk and Samuel, it almost seems as if George Kittle has become something of an afterthought given his relatively quiet camp and preseason. I expect that will change after week 1. The Lions struggled to stop TEs all last year, and despite a new coaching staff the Lions defense still looks noticeably weak at linebacker and safety. With Jimmy G under centre I expect Kittle will be targeted early and often in this game and if the Lions linebackers and safeties don't step up Kittle will prove too much to handle for the Lions defense.
49ers running game vs Lions defense. The Lions gave up the most passing and rushing TDs in the NFL last season, and were in the bottom 5 for yards allowed against both the pass and run. New HC Dan Campbell and new DC Aaron Glenn have not been handed much in the way of improvement in personnel on defense this year, and they face one of the (if not the) best running games in the NFL in the 49ers. While I expect Kittle will be the main target and too good for the Lions in the passing game, it is with the ground that this game could get out of control and quickly. I will be looking for the 49ers offensive line to dominate the trenches in this one and pave the way for Mostert and Sermon to both have very big games. Really, there is no excuse for them not to.
* 49ers defensive line vs Lions offensive line.
ReplyDeleteWINNER = Bosa! With the Lions LT Taylor Decker out, look for the Lions OT Penei Sewell have a LOOONG night!
* George Kittle vs the Lions linebackers and safeties.
ReplyDeleteI would disagree only in that I believe JG will spread it
around more. Not only will Kittle have a good night, but the
9er WR and RB will also put up good number catching the ball.
* George Kittle vs the Lions linebackers and safeties.
I look for the 9ers defense front 7 to spend a lot of time in the Lions backfield, which will make for a long night for Goff and the Lions running game.
With the Lions run game shut down, Goff will be pressured and throw a couple (maybe more), Interceptions.
Good analysis Scooter. I agree with almost everything you've
projected.
Two things I'll be looking for. A) The running game to strike a couple of quick TD's and B) WR T. Sherfield and M.
Sanu to make some big plays and surprise the Lions DB's
Thanks GEEP.
DeleteI think the 49ers will run a lot more than they pass in this one, especially once they start getting a decent lead. So I'm not expecting heaps of passing yards. And I think Kittle will be the primary target for JG given he loves the middle of the field.
Scooter
DeleteYea, can't disagree with you. If the 9ers get a big lead, they'll control the clock running the ball and keep Goff off the field. I happen to think the Lions will try to take away Kittle, leaving other receivers open. He'll still get 70-80 yards and a TD.
Well done, Scooter. I'd look for Mostert to have a huge game on turf. If our defensive line is as advertised, the Lions will have no chance. Lance should get into this game once it gets out of hand.
ReplyDeleteWith Lance, I wonder if they hold him out even if they run up a score, just to make sure the finger heals.
DeleteI have a feeling that Jimmy will throw an interception in this game. If so, would be interesting to see if Trey Lance immediately makes an appearance or if Kyle changes the game plan to run-run-screen and keeps Jimmy on.
ReplyDeleteDon't underestimate the Lions. National Media is ridiculing their Head coach for his 'old school' methods, but I think they will give us all we can handle.
What is it about the Lions team that suggests they should be a tough matchup for the 49ers?
DeleteOnly thing I think makes this a tough game is if the 49ers turn up in usual Shanahan-era week 1 form.
Mugeek9er
DeleteI have a feeling that Bosa, Ford and friends are going
to pressure Goff into a couple of INT's and maybe a
strip sac....
We know from experience what happens when Goff he is pressured....Advantage 9ers!
Scooter,
DeleteTheir O-Line and ground game for one. D'andre swift and Jamaal Williams are a good one-two punch. Losing their Left Tackle is a blow, but they have one of the best centers in Frank Ragnow and a solid Tackle in Penei Sewell.
The have nice weapons in the Passing game too - TJ Hockenson and Tyrell Williams.
Defense will come out to play....They have playmakers at every level - Michael Brockers/Trey Flowers, Jamie Collins and Jeff Okudah.
Agreed, on paper our roster is better. But we can't write them off. Also, you must acknowledge that Jimmy and Shahnahan always start the season slow. That is my secondary concern. That Shanahan's overconfidence, and Jimmie's lack of confidence will hit us.
Geep,
DeleteI would love to be wrong on this one! Would be great if Bosa, Ford don't miss a beat from 2019.
Mugeek, only reason the Lions might give the 49ers a tough game is if the 49ers don't come to play and make stupid mistakes. Like fumbling the first snap.
DeleteRight...first snap of the season too!
DeleteWe have a player in Mitchell! Rookie looking legit.
Run Defense needs to be better and we have to stop Hockenson, but otherwise, we are looking good so far.
One less int than Brady the other night? I'll take it
ReplyDeleteThere's a ton of overconfidence going into this game. Plus, they're on turf. Concerned about injuries. Keeping my fingers crossed.
ReplyDeleteAs a fan I think the confidence level isn't overconfident- it really shouldn't be close. It will only be a problem if the team themselves are overconfident and complacent.
DeleteI think the first time Jimmy makes the wrong read or throws an int he calls up #5.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is Lance is put on ice in this one.
DeleteIf he's on ice I'd have to compliment Shanny on his gamesmanship.
DeleteHurd to IR and Dontae "Human Super Glue" Johnson is called up from the practice squad. I never saw that one coming, lmao!
ReplyDeletePrediction time.
ReplyDeleteSF wins by 2 plus touchdowns even after a slow start.
Mostert, gets near 150 yards.
Bosa gets 2 sacks.
Lance gets work, at the end of the 4th and has a play or two that has fans questioning if he should be starting, while Jimmy is very solid but unspectacular... something 220 yards and 2 tds.
Here's a different angle. Penei, does a great job against Bosa, Ford and Ebukam and starts his journey as a perennial All-Pro for the next 12 years.
ReplyDeleteBut even if that happens in today's game, the 49ers should still win the game convincently.
The different angles and match ups of the game is what makes football so interesting. Got to love it.
Let the games begin!
Great write-up, Scooter. Meanwhile, Razor must be having a great time at Ford Field.
ReplyDeleteNiners are missing Kinlaw in the run game. There is some rust as can be anticipated. Expect the Niners to step on the gas this second quarter on offense.
The middle of the 49ers defense is getting pushed around way too easily. Wouldn't be surprised if Ryans starts to tighten the gaps between the DL and move away from wide-9 as the game progresses, to help plug the middle.
DeleteYeah, with Kinlaw out I'd expected them to use the wide 9 more sparingly, mostly on third downs. Lynn's play calls exploited the gaps well.
DeleteGreat to see Ford out there and bringing the heat on the pick 6.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see him feeling good. On the flip side, Mostert lasted one series :(
DeleteYeah, that's brutal. Thankfully Mitchell looks like a nice replacement.
DeleteI had the game score prediction at 31-9. Way off!
ReplyDeleteGetting 17 pts in the last 3 minutes before the half is huge. Now in complete control of the game, and get the ball to start the second half.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking that if they can add a couple of scores in the third quarter, Lance can close out the game....
DeleteI thought Lance would be on ice in this one, but yeah, since he's already seen some snaps he must be fine and if they extend the lead early in the second I think you will be right.
DeleteLooking at the week 1 scores around the league, it's the same story every season: the NFL preseason is NOT a reliable barometer for what to expect early in the season.
ReplyDeleteCase in point - QB Zach Wilson, and RB Najee Harris. Wilson looks absolutely lost, and Najee looks strictly like a power RB, and not a game changer. I'm not going to make too much of a rookie QB's first NFL game, or a rookie RB for that matter, only to say I hope people remember this lesson come next year's preseason.
Wilson is getting no help at all though.
DeleteThat's true Scooter. It's certainly not all in Wilson. He's got a tough road ahead until Saleh gets things turned around. I am just saying, guys like Romo comparing him to Rodgers, is very disrespectful to Rodgers, and way premature!
DeleteAnd Kyle brings the rookie QB in on 3rd and 20? Exactly how does that help Trey's confidence?
ReplyDeleteSo stupid. They had a chance to put this game away, and then Kyle does what Kyle often does, making one super boneheaded costly decision!
And why are Bosa and Ford in on a punt? What is going on here?
ReplyDeleteIt was a possible fake punt position. They kept most of the D on the field just in case.
DeleteElijah Mitchell looks amazing!
ReplyDeleteHow quickly can Kyle ruin Trey Lance's confidence. That's the number one question I have right now.
ReplyDeleteJust stop it, Kyle!
At this rate, Trey is either going to get hurt again, or completely his confidence, whichever comes first!
ReplyDeleteKyle is using Trey Lance exactly the wrong way, as I feared!
ReplyDeleteOh no. Verrett. That looks serious.
ReplyDeleteWhy isn't Lance getting snaps! WTF?
ReplyDeleteDamn it, Kyle!
Why isn't Trey getting snaps in a blowout! Soooo aggravating! Come on, Kyle!
ReplyDeleteAnd why is Verrett still in the game? Come on, Kyle!
ReplyDeleteHe had a chance to put this game away early in the 3rd, and he got way too cute, of course!
Isn't part of the advantage of blowouts is that you can get your best players, the ones you can't afford to lose, OUT OF THE GAME before it happens?
ReplyDeleteCan someone explain this?
Absolutely elite play caller/play designer, but heads-sratching decisions as a HC, IMO.
ReplyDeleteKeep Bosa off the field, please!
ReplyDeleteIn a blowout game on artificial turf, Kyle has Bosa and Ford in on PUNT defense!
ReplyDeleteWTF is Kyle thinking?
What happened to having "closers"?
ReplyDeleteLooks like Ebukam is the closer.
DeleteThis team lacks a killer instinct. Not impressed with Demeco Ryans.
ReplyDeleteThis game is a good kick in the butt that these guys needed. Would be interesting to see how they comeback from this and how they perform versus the Eagles. As far as the division is concerned, I think all 4 teams will have a win.
ReplyDeleteHope Verrett is not seriously injured. Fingers crossed. :(
Disappointing game. We never should have let the Lions stick around in the 3rd QTR. Kyle got too cute. At one point, he brought the rookie QB in on 3RD and 20, and I almost lost my mind!!! One of the dumbest football things I have ever seen.
ReplyDeleteI love Kyle as an OC, but I have serious questions of some of his head coaching decisions! Seriously head scratching for me! That's just a fact.
ReplyDeleteKyle brought the rookie QB in on 3RD and 20! Think about that!
ReplyDeleteHad an opportunity to get Trey some good snaps in the 2nd half .... an opportunity Kyle completely blew!
The idea of this team as currently constructed being a Super Bowl contender is over without Verett.
ReplyDeleteThe FO knew that was an issue, and had secondary littered with injury prone players, so that is on them.
KS fears Verrett tore his ACL, but not Mostert.
DeleteYeah, if they want to truly contend for a SB, they will likely need to make a move.
DeleteWhat do people think about signing Sherman to play free safety (if he's available and game, of course) and moving Ward to CB? It's not ideal but nothing else is.
ReplyDelete