By Scooter_McG
In my last article I discussed the potential options for
filling the LT void with Trent Williams a pending FA. Outside of deciding what
they will do at QB, which they may already have decided and isn’t an urgent
need with JG on the roster, LT is likely the 49ers main priority this offseason
and how the 49ers approach filling that void will dictate a lot of what they do
at other positions. But heading into the new season there is no position group that
has as many holes to fill as the secondary.
Including slot CB, the 49ers have 4 of their 5 starters in
the secondary off contract this offseason (Sherman, Verrett, Williams and
Tartt), with Jimmie Ward the lone hold over. Also off contract are their top 3
backup outside CBs (Moseley, Witherspoon, Johnson), their backup slot CB (Taylor),
and one of their top backup safeties (Harris). Yet with so many guys off
contract, the secondary seems to have taken a back seat to the LT and QB discussion.
The reason for this likely comes down to how the 49ers have
built their roster with Shanahan and Lynch in charge. The highest draft picks
they have used on the secondary are 3rd rounders Witherspoon and
Moore. And while they splashed some money to bring Sherman on board ahead of
the 2018 season, after a disastrous 2018 showing by the secondary the 49ers looked
to the DL to fix their defense rather than adding any top tier coverage guys. To
put it simply, Shanahan and Lynch have both stated and shown they believe you
build from front to back when it comes to defense.
So how will the 49ers address the secondary this offseason
now that there are so many guys off contract?
Despite the obvious need to add bodies, I don’t foresee the philosophy
the team has employed these past four years changing. This isn’t a case where
the team is one DB away from being a Super Bowl champion – there are plenty of
other needs at positions the team has shown they value more highly, including QB,
LT and edge.
We have seen the team is happy to spend money to bring in a
veteran leader that provides the right mentality, however, funds will be tight
this year and I imagine the team will now believe that Ward can take on that
role. So splashing the cash for a big name veteran DB seems unlikely to me. But
the good news is the team can easily bring back Moseley to man one CB spot; he
is a RFA and a 2nd round tender would cost around $3.4M based on
last years values. And outside of Sherman, PFF predicts that the cost of
signing the other 3 starters may only cost in the order of around $13.5M per
annum combined, and with contracts spreading over more than one year the cap
hit for those players in 2021 can be considerably below that. Overall, the
49ers may be able to fill out their starting secondary just by re-signing their
own for around $10M against the cap in 2021.
However, the Jets new HC is Robert Saleh, and he will no
doubt be interested in bringing some of the 49ers players with him. This may
make it unrealistic that the 49ers re-sign all of these players. In my eyes the
guys from the secondary that seem most likely to follow Saleh are Williams and
Tartt, with Saleh praising both players in the past. But the good news for the
49ers is that there is a lot of good slot CBs and safeties available in FA this
year. Even if they follow Saleh the chances are good that the 49ers can find
suitable replacements through FA without breaking the bank.
This would allow the team to continue with their philosophy
of using 3rd round and later picks on high end but raw athletes to
fill out the secondary group, provide depth and groom to be future starters. And
if a ridiculous talent they can’t pass up falls in their laps during the draft then
that player can compete for a starting role and the overall depth of the
secondary improves.
That’s the way I think the team will look to address the position. What do you think they will do?
That's their philosophy and I agree with you, Scooter. They aren't going to all of a sudden change their stripes. They might even have a f/a fall into their lap after all the wallets close. Thanks for the effort put into this well written article.
ReplyDeleteThanks razor. This FA period is going to be wild and it wouldn't surprise me at all if a very good DB could be had pretty cheaply.
DeleteAnother very inciteful article. Who needs the PD?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGood stuff, Scooter. Speaking just of philosophy, if I were in the room, I would make an argument for shifting towards a more balanced approach. Right now the philosophy is heavily skewed towards the DL (including DEs) and less so towards the secondary. I think I would want to start a shift this year towards balancing that more. That way if there are problems with injuries on the DL, the secondary can hold up better (even if that is only 0.5 seconds). I would push to start the shift this year, but it would only be a start because of the salary cap constraints. Priority would be to sign Mosely, Verrett and try and keep Williams. But if Williams seems to be leaning towards the Jets, then let him go without making a high offer to keep him. As you say there will be lots of good free agents available. Also maybe consider taking a CB in the first or second round. The team seems to have been able to find good DL (DE not so much) in later rounds and off the street. Solomon Thomas as the 3rd round pick was a clear mistake and giving Armstead such a premium contract was also.
ReplyDeleteDespite what I said about it being harder to find DE, I would make a push to try and keep Hyder. He had very good production last year and just as importantly was pretty much injury-free. I guess I'm spooked by all of these injuries and if I could find guys that can produce and can pretty much stay healthy I would keep them; although it does look like he missed the 2017 season with a torn achilles. I still think I would consider giving him a strong offer. Priority needs to be somehow reducing the cap hit from Dee Ford.
Thanks cubus. Regarding their philosophy, it isn't one I wholeheartedly agree with but I also don't see it changing any time soon. Not that they want to roll nobodies out there, but I think they are firmly of the belief that a great front 4 makes everybodies job easier.
DeleteOn Hyder, I don't think he will have as big a market as some fear, and his ties with Kocurek likely keep him with the 49ers at least one more year.
The thing is their approach has worked. Even last year with all the injuries they had good play in the secondary from low priced vets and later round draftees. Mosely was undrafted, Johnson was journeyman, Verrett hadn't played a full season in many years and yet they all performed pretty well in the system. I agree with Scooter McG's view in the article that they will likely find a decent vet to sign on the cheap and will used some day two and three picks to take body types that fit what they are looking for. As the saying goes: if it ain't broke why fix it?
DeleteRazor: Is there a way to edit a post? Posts can be deleted, but can they be edited?
ReplyDeleteYou're the second one to bring that up and ask. I'm not aware of anyway to edit as of right now, but I'm not the most computer literate dude in the room. I need help with those type of issues. Hopefully we'll eventually get them sorted. Until then I appreciate your patience.
DeleteRazor: It's not that big of a deal. I was able to copy my post and then delete it. Then I simply pasted the post into a new post and edited it. It's just that editing is easier and since this seems like a sophisticated platform, I would have expected there to be an "edit" feature.
DeleteCubus and Razor, I've searched the web for a "how-to" on editing one's post on Blogger, and that function does not appear to be available. One would expect a short video on Youtube, but there's nothing and, in addition, I couldn't find an article about it.
DeleteI couldn't either, George. Appreciate the effort.
DeleteWell, I appreciate your life saver of a blog. Very impressive it is.
DeleteAgree with most of your takes here, Scooter. But you may be underestimating the DB bloodbath about to happen. The Athletic has an article listing the FA DBs and the list stretches for screens! Verrett, Williams, Tartt and Spoon all appear in their Tier 4 Category ("Fringe starters, rotational pieces and wild cards") and are expected to get one-year contracts expect, perhaps, Spoon. After read that article, I feel better about the prospects of re-signing Verrett and Williams. Note that William's relationship to Kyle is deeper than with Saleh (their time with the Browns overlapped in 2014).
ReplyDeleteThanks Mood, I really need to get a subscription to the Athletic!
DeleteI intentionally didn't speculate on who might become available, but yes, I completely agree we are about to see a lot of pretty good players get released across the NFL to free up cap space. It is part of the reason why I think the 49ers will have little trouble signing a starting secondary on the relative cheap. That was really what I was aiming to get across - there is no need to panic about having the majority of the secondary off contract as they can likely re-sign or replace most of them fairly easily in a flooded and cap strapped market.
Has anyone taken a look at, Shemar Jean-Charles, Cornerback, Appalachian State? I think he could be a day 3 prospect with some upside. He finished the year with 35 tackles, 16 pass deflections, and one interception. Named the Walter Camp First Team All-American and the Sun Belt player of the year by PFF. PFF also charted him with a higher forced incompletion rate (34.6%) than catch rate allowed (32.7%) on the year. You don't see that often. He was also a Team Captain for App State this past season.
ReplyDeleteRaz,
DeleteI will check him out. Speaking of Appalachian St., have you had a chance to check out QB Zac Thomas?
At 6' 1" he's not the traditional size for an NFL QB, but the kid is a ball'r.
I caught a couple of his games last year. Fun to watch. I think his immediate future lies up in, Prime Time's neck of the woods.
DeleteYup lots of questions on defense. Hopefully they are answered shortly. The only known's on the defense is Armstead, Warner, Greenlaw and Ward. I will be glad when Sherman is no longer a Niner. I have not forgotten how bad the defense was before Saleh...
ReplyDeleteI agree with cubus. I would re-sign Verrett, K. Williams and Moseley. Sherman seems to be a foregone conclusion, but I wouldn't put Tartt and Ward on the priority list either.
ReplyDeleteWe could replace them with FA and late rd picks.
Our #1 priority is T.Williams. But if he walks it allows us the money to retain other players and sign a FA or two that could be a good fit.
Also, Lynch and Shanahan will need to hit a homerun in this years draft. Rds 1-5 will need to produce potential starters to sustain the team for the next 5 to 8+ years.
That said, I have faith Lynch and Shanahan will put a post season team on the field every year that they are here.
Scooter, another fine article. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside, I read an article that talks about the personal relationship between Kyle and Chris Simms. Apparently, they have their initials tattooed on each others lower leg. This goes back to college at UT. I never realized they were that close, at least at that time. Link below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.chron.com/sports/texans/article/College-tattoos-keep-Bucs-QB-Texans-assistant-1894105.php
Thanks George, glad you enjoyed the article.
DeleteSimms has great insight into what Shanahan likes at QB. In his words, Mac Jones is the guy he believes best fits the Shanahan offense. More so than even Wilson, who he rates as the best QB in the draft. Now he also pointed out that wasn't based on discussions with Kyle, but even so, Simms will have a good idea as to what Kyle will like.
Simms was on PFT today to answer questions about his QB rankings. About Mond, he says his dad turned him on to him.
ReplyDeleteHe answered some good questions from the audience.
Here's the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCFpQk-CX74