By Scooter_McG
The 49ers have made some important moves in FA to shore up
their secondary, re-signing Moseley, Verrett, Tartt and Williams, all of whom have
logged many starts for the team over the past couple of years and currently
project to be starters in the secondary next season. They have also brought
back an experienced depth piece in Dontae Johnson.
One of the perhaps stranger moves, however, was signing SS Tavon
Wilson just before Tartt was re-signed. Initially this looked like it may be
someone to compete with Harris and Moore (and potentially a draft pick) for a
starting role, but after re-signing Tartt it became clear the 49ers envisage a
different role for Wilson.
Wilson is a former second round pick of the Patriots in 2012
out of Illinois. The Patriots liked the versatility he offered, having played
all across the secondary in college, which they saw as a perfect fit for their
defensive scheme. However, most scouting reports noted Wilson had limited
athletic upside and struggled in coverage, and he was widely considered a
massive reach at the time (with some draft experts thinking he would be lucky
to even be drafted).
Those scouting reports seemed accurate over his four years
with the Patriots, as he only made four starts and had limited impact as a defensive
back. But despite his failure to crack the Patriots starting line-up, in 2016
the Lions made signing Wilson one of their top priorities, quickly negotiating
with and signing him once the legal tampering period opened. Bob Quinn, the
Lions GM in 2016, was a former Patriots staffer and he believed there was
considerable untapped potential left to be unlocked. Wilson’s four seasons with
the Lions were considerably more productive as he started 39 games and was a steady
presence at SS for them. He then signed a 1-year deal with the Colts last season,
where he primarily was a backup but again provided steady play when called
upon.
Throughout Wilson’s career he has also been heavily used on
STs cover units.
As a safety Wilson’s best attributes are his versatility,
leadership and understanding of his role. While best as an in the box safety,
Wilson is also capable as a blitzer, covering TEs or playing deep when needed. And
he is a smart, reliable presence in the secondary. But he also has his
weaknesses in that he doesn’t have the athletic ability to be a sideline-to-sideline
player, and he hasn’t historically had many turnovers, with only 3 INTs and 1
FF in his last seven seasons.
For the 49ers, with Tartt coming back to play SS, Wilson’s
role in the secondary will be that of a reliable backup presence the team can
count on to fill in and get the job done if needed. Tartt has struggled to stay
healthy over the years, and the drop off in play with Tartt out has been
noticeable. This is due to a combination of Tartt’s individual talent, as well
as his understanding of the defense, reading of play and communication skills
to get his teammates on the same page and avoid busts in coverage. This is
where Wilson’s value will lie in the secondary – being able to provide that
same kind of veteran leadership, knowledge and reliability in the event Tartt
misses time. While players like Harris and Moore have shown flashes of talent, consistency
and reliability have been noticeably lacking.
Perhaps his more important role, however, may lie on STs. This
is something that a few of the recent new additions share in common, with all
three of Wilson, Ebukam and Sherfield providing considerable experience as STs
coverage players. Expect each of these players to log plenty of snaps on STs in
2021 should they stay on the roster.
Makes sense. Special teams haven't been very special. Good break down, Scooter.
ReplyDeleteRazor
DeleteHappy birthday, with many more to come!
Thank you, Geep.
DeleteThanks razor. There certainly seems to be some added desire to strengthn the STs coverage and blocking units based on the guys they have added. Still missing a return man though.
DeleteScooter: Once again, good work!
ReplyDeleteYou have identified Tavon Wilson roll and why the 9ers signed him. A reliable Back up for Tartt, who has a propensity for getting injured and he understands his roll. He can and will, also contribute on ST.... Brick by brick Scooter, brick by brick!
BTW: I hope you and yours are not being affected by the flooding?
Thanks GEEP. I think signing Wilson is a sign the team is aware how much of a drop off there is when Tartt isn't available. Not handing the backup role to Moore and Harris this year.
DeleteI've had quite a lot of rain where I am, but thankfully the floods are south of me. Thanks for the well wishes!
The Golden Nuggets asked the question:
ReplyDelete* Have the 49ers done enough during free agency to be the favorites in the NFC West?
* Their answer was; San Francisco 49ers way too early prediction: 11-5 (first place)
* My response is NOT until the FO signs a back up QB that can win games, if and when JG is hurt. If not a FA, then a QB they draft.
* WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE?
Every team has a backup that can win 2 or 3 games for you. Foles was the exception. Once a team loses their starting qb the odds are their season is over anyway.
DeleteRazor
DeleteHmmm?? Do the names Griese and Morrall ring a bell?
Something is in my ear saying Morrall, the backup QB, won several regular season games and a couple of playoff games for the only NFL team that has gone UNDEFEATED!
GETER DONE LYNCHAHAN, GETER DONE...BRICK BY BRICK!
If your chances at a SB are based on your backup QB, you have a problem with your starting QB. 49ers need to find a QBOTF, not just a backup.
DeleteScooter
DeleteABSOLUTELY!!! I never said they didn't need to find their QBOTF....Was just pulling Razors chain about
Griese and Morrall (backup QB winning games).
NOTE: If SF drafts their QBOTF, he'll be JG's backup
for most of, if not all of, the 2021 season Unless JG
is hurt again. If they trade for a backup QB that can not win games, they've wasted their money and WHY I said ShanaLynch need to GETER DONE!
Pauline, PFN Chief Draft Analyst and NFL Insider, explained, “As of last night [March 23], the word in league circles was very likely that Sam Darnold is out, they’re going to trade him, and it will be Zach Wilson.”
ReplyDeleteRazor
Delete* You've been the biggest supporter of Wilson, so does
that surprise you?
* Do you think the 9ers will try to trade for Darnold?
I do not think they'll trade for, Darnold. Doesn't surprise me.
DeleteWilson to the Jets I think has been the consensus for a while. Definitely what I expect to happen. And I agree with razor - doubt the 49ers look at Darnold. They haven't been willing to get close to his salary for a vet backup QB this offseason.
DeleteScooter
DeleteI agree. Just wanted to see if Razor has accepted it yet.
Now all we have to do, is get him to accept the 9ers
will draft QB Mac Jones...lol
Mark Schlereth had 16 knee surgeries and 1 back surgery. He said he'd trade the back surgery for another 16 knee surgeries.
ReplyDeleteScooter,
ReplyDeleteDo you know how much of Wilson's pay is guaranteed?
ST has bled some with the loss of Mostert, Moore and Nzeocha. Wilson will shore it up if he makes the final 53.
Not sure on what his guarantees are, if any. My take is that he isn't a lock to make the 53 man roster, but he is a good chance and at worst will make Moore/Harris earn their role.
DeleteI found this comment interesting:
ReplyDelete"And before the Jimmy stans come at me waving his win-loss record and his Super Bowl appearance, keep in mind that Jared Goff has all that on his resume and more. Since Sean McVay became the Rams' head coach, Goff has missed just one start due to injury. In four years with McVay, Goff is tied for the second-most wins of any starting quarterback in the league, and he also has a Super Bowl appearance.
And the Rams still traded him."
https://www.ninersnation.com/2021/3/25/22349689/gold-standard-podcast-what-can-the-49ers-learn-from-sean-mcvay-and-jared-goff
The QB winz argument is really flawed. Heck, Trubisky should be seen as a high end starter if wins are the measuring stick - 25-13 regular season record the past 3 seasons.
DeleteI'm not sure I would say really flawed. For example, if the starting QB is able to bring the team back from a deficit to win any time there is a realistic opportunity (i.e. the team isn't down by something like 14 or more points entering the 4th Q), then I think that counts for something. If the rate is high, let's say greater than 2/3rds of the time, then that could mean the QB is pretty good just the supporting cast (especially, the defense) is not. Even if the number of opportunities to bring the team back is low (probably because the defense is so poor). Not sure I explained what I'm thinking very well.
DeleteYeah, but "QB winz" doesn't tell you that in and of itself. Yet it gets used like it does, like it is a measure of how good a QB is. All it actually tells you is whether the QB is capable of winning with the team they have around them.
DeleteThe win argument is generally flawed. In Jimmy G's case, however, he was inserted in 2017 into a team with no other changes and took it from 1-10 to 5-0. The eye test and record both clearly showed he was far superior to Hoyer and Beathard. This turned out to be a rare controlled experiment.
DeleteEric Davis thinks that Stafford is a downgrade on Goff. Should we pay more attention to some blogger on a fan site or to Eric Davis? Take that for what you will.
One may argue that Jimmy G would have done better than Stafford in Detroit given the weapons that Stafford had. There is no way to prove or disprove it. The only thing that really matters is that ShanaLynch thinks Jimmy G gives them the best chance to win among QBs available to them.
On a different note, Niners Nation really went south after the new California labor law forced Vox Media to stop using part time writers. The current writers just go thru the motions.
@Scooter. Yes, clearly, you have to look deeper into the won/loss record.
Delete"The eye test and record both clearly showed he was far superior to Hoyer and Beathard."
DeleteExactly. That is exactly what the W-L record for JG shows. He is better than the other QBs they have trotted out. Nothing more (or less).
"The only thing that really matters is that ShanaLynch thinks Jimmy G gives them the best chance to win among QBs available to them."
Again, exactly. Well, at least in terms of compared to what they are willing to pay for a perceived upgrade through FA or trade. We will see what happens in the draft, but everything points to them rolling with JG as the starter in 2021, because that is what they see as their best option right now.
Another dope piece Scooter.
ReplyDeleteFull agreement.
Wilson’s versatility could be a big reason why the 49ers came calling.
Being capable of playing every secondary position is a plus.
That ability alone puts him ahead of Dontae Johnson and other players.
But, although Wilson can play many secondary positions it’s evident that he has not mastered any of them to establish himself as a longtime starter.
He may be looked at as merely a bandaid in case there is (as you said) injuries in the secondary.
Thanks AES. While he has versatility, it should be recognized he is primarily a SS, but has the versatility to be used in a variety of ways. You wouldn't put him at CB unless you were desperate.
DeleteI think Dontae Johnson actually provides more versatility in that he can literally play any position in the secondary.
Hi Scooter, first thanks again for an excellent article!
ReplyDeleteI read an opinion piece a few days ago that said a loser in the Wilson signing was Harris. Not because Wilson would take time from him at SS but because last season Saleh tried Harris in a linebacker role and had to pull him. Whereas, that role would be more natural for Wilson. The article also opined that, by extension, it might be that the Niners wanted to try more of that this season. Any thoughts on this?
Oooh, that's an interesting thought George. Hadn't considered that angle. I could definitely see that as an option. As you say, they tried Harris there. They ended up using Flannigan-Fowles there at the end of the season, another safety/ LB hybrid.
DeleteThe only concern I see is whether Wilson has the size to play that role? He's not as big or thickly built as DFF or Harris.
In terms of using that role more this year, yeah, I think that is the case. I think they are happy to be using safeties in that 3rd LB role.
Cubus,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link.
The Rams clearly felt that Stafford is better than Goff, but that’s yet to be fully determined until Stafford is on the field.
If Josh Rosen can crash learn the Shanahan playbook by TC, perhaps there could still be a plan to trade Garoppolo. But in this scenario the 49ers would need to draft a QB they envision as a starter in the near future.
Rosen (unless he kills-it) would only be a bridge.
Interesting times ahead my friend!
AES: I'm kind of intrigued by the "stache".
DeleteCubus,
DeleteThat is intriguing, but imho, I see Minschew as a clone of Josh Rosen.
If the 49ers sign GM, he and Rosen would likely battle for the backup spot behind Garoppolo.
But that said, I can’t help but wonder if Lynch is working on a huge deal with the Jets to acquire their #2 pick.
Zac Wilson just might demand a bus load of our top draft picks, current starters and future first rd picks.
The question would be if Saleh has been given enough autonomy to entertain a deal for their #2 draft.
Jack Hammer article today:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/are-the-san-francisco-49ers-running-it-back-with-jimmy-garoppolo
"The cold reality is that over the past 10 offseasons, only half of the 10 teams that committed the most guaranteed dollars in free agency advanced to the playoffs -- and none won a Super Bowl."
ReplyDelete-Trotter
So it appears rumours the Patriots want to trade for JG won't die down. And it also appears the 49ers aren't really interested in trading JG away, at least not right now.
ReplyDeleteBased on this, and given what other QBs were traded for this offseason, what do people think would be a reasonable price tag the 49ers should not be willing to accept less than?
For mine, I would be putting the screws on the Patriots. If they really want him, pony up. At a minimum, get #15 and a one of their 4ths this year plus a 2nd next year (which may be a conditional pick that rises to a 1st based on play time).
That would give the 49ers ammunition to move up for a QB (should they wish to). Any less and I don't really see the point in making the trade.
Reports are that Kevin Givens has been charged with assault, due to an incident from February. This might be part of the reasoning behind the recent signing of Kerr.
ReplyDelete