Outmanned But Not Outgunned

San Francisco stuns Philadelphia in a thrilling upset 23-19. Brock Purdy lost George Kittle early to an Achilles tear and threw 2 interceptions, but he made the critical plays to win the game in the end. It wasn't the team's best game by any means, nor was it a great coaching job however, Saleh's defense performed admirably and managed to end the game when they had to. 

If you told me Purdy would throw 2 interceptions' while at the same time losing Kittle, I would have said no chance in hell we win this game. I don't know how they did it and I don't care. All I know is we get an opportunity to get revenge on Seattle at their house next week. Can't ask for more than that. Congratulations on the win and let's get back to work to be our best in the next round after we celebrate knocking out the defending super bowl champions tonight. 🍻  

Playoffs Wild Card Round: 49ers vs Eagles

We've arrived at the moment this team has worked so hard for all year. The blood, guts and sacrifices everyone has made culminates in this win or go home game. 

Nick Sirianni & Jalen Hurts at home in the playoffs: • 5–0 record • Avg score: 35–14 • 0 turnovers forced • 14 takeaways • Trailed for just 5:43 total across 5 games.

Per NextGenStats, Purdy completed 72.6% of his passes on in-breaking routes (6th best). The Eagles have allowed 51.9% completion on in-breaking routes, the lowest mark in 10 seasons of NGS data.

Niners are #2 in the NFL in points scored on the road this season (258). They're also #4 in point differential on the road (+58). They had the 2nd-most road wins out of any team in the NFL, at 7-2 (only SEA and NE had more).

Eagles giving up nearly 5 yards per carry (4.74) on outside zone runs this season. Eagles blitz at the third-lowest rate in the NFL, only 18.1% of the time. They also run light boxes at the highest-rate in the NFL, over 60% of the time. The Niners are going to have to find a way to run against light boxes and protect against 4-man rushes on Sunday. Feels like Shanahan is going to need 30+ rushing attempts to have a chance in this game. I like the 49ers to upset the Eagles 21-20. Go Niners!

49ers inactives: WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) LB Dee Winters (ankle) LB Luke Gifford (quad) RB Isaac Guerendo NCB Chase Lucas DT Kevin Givens WR Jordan Watkins

Reality Check

 

San Francisco talked a big game but played small Saturday night against the Seahawks. The offensive game plan forced upon them without Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall was glaring. Keep Kittle and CMC into block which reduced their normal 5 eligible receivers to 3. Still didn't afford Purdy the protection they hoped it would, and it allowed Seattle's defense to defend a much smaller area. It was a vote of no confidence by Shanahan and his offensive staff in their OT's. 

Defensively, the 49ers lacked 2nd and 3rd level tacklers, missing 18 as a team, 12 of which were committed by LB's and S's. Conversely, Seattle's defense missed 3 tackles. Should this continue in Philadelphia, it will get out of hand quickly and I'd anticipate a blowout victory for the Eagles. 

49ers final strength of schedule was .498. Playoff teams with a worse SOS this year:

Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England, Denver, Jacksonville, Buffalo, LA Chargers. Seattle also was at .498.

Saturday Night Football Week 17: Seahawks vs 49ers

Saturday night's alright for fighting. Time to get some action in! I think a talented team that's playing with a chip on their shoulders is very dangerous. This is a winner takes all match with the division title and the #1 seed throughout the playoffs on the line. 

Seattle's defense is arguably the best in the league; however, they rank 18th in DVOA against tight ends this season. They give up the 5th-most yards to tight ends of all teams in the league. George Kittle on if he will play in this game, "absolutely". The 49ers lead the NFL converting 51% of 3rd downs. Seahawks have the best 3rd down defense, allowing conversions on 32.4% of 3rd downs.

Seahawks* – 28 giveaways (31st) 20 of those 28 giveaways were committed by Darnold, whose been 39% on 3rd downs. A turnover in this game is huge. Make Darnold be consistent throwing the ball against that 3 deep zone. I doubt they'll have Lenoir follow JSN unless strategic circumstances warrant such a move. Force field goals.

Sky Moore returned one against the Seahawks with the Chiefs. Both teams rank 1 and 2 in Special teams.

No rain is expected during the 49ers — Seahawks game tonight  Field looks to be in great shape.

Niners have elevated T Brandon Parker and LB Eric Kendricks from the practice squad for today’s game.

“When you think about a business trip, you want to dress in a black suit and I feel like this is the type of game it is.” — Ricky Pearsall

49ers defense ranks: #24 in overall EPA/play however:

#15 in the red zone

#15 in Opp 3rd-down conversion%

The 49ers defense has to limit the explosives, something they were unable to do against the Bears, make 5 stops, and they should win this game, 24-20! Go Niners!

*UPDATE: Both Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall are out for this game.👀

Niners in actives:

T Trent Williams (hamstring) WR Ricky Pearsall (knee) DT Kevin Givens RB Isaac Guerendo DE Robert Beal Jr. LB Curtis Robinson CB Chase Lucas Pearsall's absence means Jordan Watkins is active.

Do You Hear What I Hear

A score, a score, add in four more. With a win as big as can be! Giving up a 2 day rest differential, no George Kittle, no Fred Warner, no Trent Williams, no Nick Bosa, no Brandon Aiyuk. No problem. Brock Purdy is playing some of his best football and it couldn't have come at a better time. With a chance to lock up the number 1 seed throughout the playoffs against the Seahawks this Saturday evening, the 49ers will regroup, heal up and see who is available. 

Defensively it was an atrocious performance, but they made the stop they needed to when they needed to do it. Saleh has no answers for 12 personnel. Pinnock is a liability in the run game and Gifford is a liability in the pass game. Back to the lab and figure it out. 

This 3-game stretch for the 49ers is their highest 3-game point total since 1994. I will continue to enjoy this team for what they are and not focus on what they aren't, and what they are is an offensive juggernaut the likes of which we haven't seen for 30 years! My congratulations to the 49ers organization for a 12-win season. They could've very easily gone in the tank after Bosa and Warner went down and no one would have faulted them. Really proud of this team.

Sunday Night Football Week 16: Bears vs 49ers

 Let the Sunday night special shine it's light on Purdy. Pressure-to-sack ratio (out of 32 QBs):

1. Brock Purdy 7.3%

6. Caleb Williams 11.7% Purdy has only been sacked seven times in his seven starts this season. That will need to continue tonight as the offensive line is playing at a high level. The offense hasn't punted since November. SF is averaging 34.4 points per game since Purdy returned from injury. Without Kittle the running game is going to take a hit. How much of a hit and how Shanahan adjusts is unknown but the numbers with Kittle vs. without were significant in the run game early in the season.

The 49ers defense is 8th in EPA per play-action. Caleb Williams has thrown a play action pass on 34.5% of his drop backs with an 83.5 PFF grade, 8th best among QBs. The 49ers limited the Colts' Jonathon Taylor to 46 yards and one TD Monday Night. If they can make the Bears one dimensional and operate upfront with a cage rush to keep Williams from getting outside, they should be able to limit their explosives. Williams has cut his sack rate from last year's 68 (#1) to 23 this year, thanks in large part to that running game.

Tackling improved significantly last week for the 49ers and that will need to carry over tonight. San Francisco has been very disciplined with respect to committing offensive penalties ranking them near the top. The Bears' defense has feasted on turnovers and Purdy must play mistake free football. Should be the loudest Levi's been all year with the #1 seed on the line. I like the 49ers to win this game handily, 41-24. Go Niners!

Bears RT Darnell Wright is en route to Santa Clara. He did not travel with the team Saturday because of an illness. Wright is questionable and his availability will be a game-time decision. Add WRs DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus to their Injury Report because of illnesses.

49ers inactives vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football:

RB Isaac Guerendo WR Jordan Watkins TE George Kittle DL Kevin Givens CB Renardo Green LB Curtis Robinson DL Robert Beal Jr.

5 Straight Home Games

To lift the Lombardi Trophy on February 8th at Levi's Staduim. Brock Purdy put on a masterclass throwing for 5 TD's and the first in franchise history to do so on Monday Night Football. Although he hasn't started enough games to be qualified, if he were, his 76.0 QBR on the season would rank first in the NFL. Brock Purdy’s TD% is 7.6% (2nd in the NFL). Matthew Stafford leads the league at 7.7%. No other QB is over 6.3%. He will lead this team to a Super Bowl.

Every coverage/defensive scheme has vulnerabilities… Can the QB identify them and find the solution within his play call - this is, has been, always will be the core concept of playing QB. Defensively for the 49ers they were able to stop the Colts running game and when it mattered most towards the end of the game, rookies Collins and West both got their first sacks of the season. Dee Winters heard, "Orlando" earlier in the game and when he heard it again, he was ready, picking off Old Man Rivers and taking it to the house for the final nail in the Colts coffin. The defense for the 49ers just earned valuable lessons on how a hall of fame quarterback can beat you with their mind. Rivers' performance just highlighted why arm strength is inferior to mind strength when evaluating quarterbacks.

The next test is the Chicago Bears and although Caleb Williams is the more talented quarterback, Brock Purdy is the BETTER quarterback and should lead this team to another victory Sunday Night. Until then, let's all enjoy this win together and dream what could be on the horizon for San Francisco!