Monday, April 14, 2025

Drafting On The Edge


Looking at the top 30 visit sheet we have 4 Edge rushers. Mykel Williams, Mike Green, Shemar Stewart and Landon Jackson (projected early 2nd rounder).  

My red flags for each 1st round prospect:

Walker: 4th percentile height & arms Green: Susp, Marshall, 8th percentile arms/0 percentile hands Mykel: Injury, below average pressure rate Shemar: Iffy run awareness, 1.5 sacks Pearce: 245 lbs, other issues

66 comments:

  1. Among centers who played at least 800 snaps, Brendel ranked 12th in the NFL with a 65.0 grade for his overall blocking.

    “He’s capable of playing all the positions, so it’s really where he can help us the most, where he can get the most comfortable,” Shanahan said of Burford. “I think as he showed us his rookie year, he has starting ability at guard and we believe he has that at tackle too.

    “It’s really where he is going to balance out the most and where he can come in and compete and give himself a chance to possibly earn a starting spot and possibility to be a swing tackle because he has that type of ability.”

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    Replies
    1. If Brendel's knee is no longer an issue for him then he's fine as the starting centre in 2025.

      Burford is such an odd case. After his rookie year I thought he'd lock down a starting spot. Maybe year 4 is his year.

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  2. Some RBs saw their avoided tackle rate drop dramatically when comparing splits vs. Power 4 and non Power 4 schools:

    🔻Quinshon Judkins (these are all career stats)
    40% vs. Non P4
    24% vs. Power-4

    🔻Devin Neal
    32% vs. Non P4
    21% vs. Power-4

    RB class average
    31% vs. Non P4
    24% vs. Power-4

    RJ Harvey had no such issues:
    33% vs. Non P4
    31% vs. Power-4

    Elite tackle-avoidance traits are clear as day in Harvey's film. He's electric with the ball in his hands.

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  3. I really like Harvey. But will he still be there at #43? He's starting to receive a lot of attention as the draft nears.

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  4. Wrt the "red flag" Hayden Winks has for Mykel Williams - low pressure rate. Something that does need to kept in mind with him, and to a greater extent for a guy like Landon Jackson who gas a similar "flag" - both of these guys had higher than average snaps as a 4i. It definitely impacts their stats.

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    Replies
    1. That would definitely skew the stats quite a bit.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Have to wonder WHY JL and KS believes the 9er O-Line is adequate?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6KFN9tUuNQ

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    1. Williams and Puni are really good, McKenzie and Brendal they are adequate. Then you have a LG that's up in the air. Burford may play left guard, but he can also play all five positions.

      All arrows point to drafting a defensive end maybe a DT; however, experience has told me to expect the unexpected.

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  7. Makes me wonder if Lynch and Shanahan are playing the misdirection game in order to sway attention away from the picks that they have targeted. If Membou is still available at #11, I can't see the 49ers passing up on him.

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  8. Meh, they passed on Wirfs and I'll wager Foerster sees Membou as a RT only and we got one. Shanahan seemed very confident in Spencer Burford as their swing OT as well.

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    Replies
    1. Passed on Wirfs to get TW.

      Selected McGlinchey to play RT and replace a starting calibre player.

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    2. Was that starting caliber player deemed the wrong fit?

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    3. Was indeed. I'm just pointing out that the passing on Wirfs example isn't really a good indication of what the team values. It leaves out a lot context regarding that situation, where they clearly were going after Trent Williams. And they have in the past drafted a guy to play RT high, even though they had a starting calibre RT at the time.

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    4. You can say that but Foerster told us where he values OL and the fact is most of the ones coming out of college aren't ready.

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    5. He sure did. Basically, you don't need to have an OL full of first round picks, nor prioritise it over other positions, as you can find starters in later rounds. But if a really good one is there you take them.

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  9. Was Wirfs a big need at time? The 49ers were very competitive without having to draft Wirfs. Different time, different need.

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  10. Neither was Wirfs in 2020, with the 49ers coming off a SB appearance. Except for a healthy Trent Williams, which other 49ers Oline players could be starters on the top 5 NFL teams?

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  11. Other teams don't concern me. Unless they're in subterfuge mode they pretty much told you what they think of their offensive line. I would add its the same one minus LG and plus RG as the '23 SB OL. Trent Williams isn't going anywhere for the next 2 years and I'm confident in that because they wouldn't have just extended him without that assurance, not to mention he scoffed at the idea of NOT being able to play until 40 like Whitworth was able to do.

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  12. Even if TW plays until he's 50, the 49ers still need to upgrade their Oline. Campbell, Banks, Membou are players that are hard to pass up on if available. Hopefully, they could strike gold after the first rd like they did with Puni, but those finds are more rare than they are normal. I'll put it in the TBD file for another ten days for now.

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    Replies
    1. According to what Shanahan said they don't "need to upgrade" their Oline. Their plan is to draft a OG/OT hybrid to compete at LG and that won't be at 11. Hopefully one of Membou, Campbell or Banks is still on the board to see if they stay true to Foerster's stated philosophy regarding 1st Round OL.

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    2. Passing on an OT at 11 won't tell us anything other than the guy they picked they rated higher.

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  13. I consider OG/LG as Olinemen. Maybe I'm generalizing to much.

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  14. 49ers have told us their draft philosophy in the past. Main priority for high picks is QB, Edge and OT. Basically, QB most important, then the guys that disrupt him, then the guys most responsible for keeping him upright and going against the premier pass rushers.

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    Replies
    1. Scooter,
      I hear you. But with the 49ers investing big bank on Purdy this season, I would be hard pressed to pass on a top tier Olinman #11 and a second OL in the 3rd rd for better protection, imho.

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    2. Purdy's elite reactionary quickness mitigates pressure.

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    3. True. But so does very good pass-pro.

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    4. Foerster told you where the performance line was and how the OL has to be at it or just above for success. It's been proven twice.

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  15. Tony Pauline live just said word is the Niners are looking at Walter Nolen at 11.

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  16. Tony Pauline live that the dark horse is Shemar Stewart. Belief is he will be a top 15 pick.

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  17. Tony Pauline said the Niners seem to like Dorian Strong, CB day 2.

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    Replies
    1. He'd be a nice add. Absolutely crushed his agilities at his pro day. Good size and decent speed. Very good technique.

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  18. A lot of teams like Mykel Williams.

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  19. We are done to single digits 9 days until the draft.

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  20. It's all downhill now, Coach.

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  21. They won’t pick a defensive tackle at 11 because there won’t be one worthy of that pick. Not a problem as there are lots of good DT’s later in the draft. I can’t see them taking a corner although a lot a mocks predict that. I think the best available might be an OT or Colston Loveland at TE. Neither are immediate needs but could be in a couple of years. I could see the Niners picking either position.

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  22. Looking forward to the draft a ton this year.

    I'll be visiting my folks for a few weeks around the draft and growing up have fond memories of meeting my father somewhere, even when we lived 9 hours drive apart.
    We would would pick a town, get a hotel and spend the day watching the draft at a random sports bar, and then read all about the selections in our 6 or 7 draft mags.
    He's 83 now, so Im hoping for at least 10 or 15 more years of this but you never know and need to treasure these moments.

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    Replies
    1. Here in the states or there in Prague?

      Delete
    2. I'll be visiting home to help him out on the ranch.
      looking forward to getting my hands dirty after all the time in the office.

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    3. That's awesome Shoup. Love hearing stuff like that. Lost my dad a couple years ago and having the opportunity to catch up with him a lot in his later years is something I treasure.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Guys.
      Yup now that I have kids and am a bit older our mortality becomes far more real... and time truly is the greatest gift. Spending time with loved ones, doing what we truly enjoy is something we can never get enough of.

      Delete
  23. Purdue OL Marcus Mbow also had a 30-visit with the 49ers today, per his Instagram.

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  24. OSU OT Josh Simmons has his top-30 visit today with the 49ers, per
    Adam Schefter.

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  25. Career avoided tackle rate when facing Power-4 defense:

    (minimum 250 rushes vs. P4)

    27.9% - Jahmyr Gibbs
    29.9% - Kenneth Walker
    30.0% - De'Von Achane
    30.5% - Kendre Miller
    30.6% - Corey Kiner
    30.8% - RJ Harvey
    35.6% - Bijan Robinson
    35.8% - Bhayshul Tuten
    37.7% - Cam Skattebo

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  26. Tennessee EDGE James Pearce Jr. has a top-30 visit scheduled today with the 49ers, according to Rap Sheet.

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  27. Western Michigan CB Bilhal Kone is having a 30-visit with the 49ers today.

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  28. The 49ers are hosting Ole Miss WR Jordan Watkins on a 30 visit today, per AryePulliNFL.

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  29. UCLA LB Kain Medrano is having a 30-visit with the 49ers.

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  30. Just saw this.

    The 49ers are doing a lot of work on SMU Edge Elijah Roberts. Not only are they bringing him in for a 30-visit today, they also have had a Zoom interview, went to his pro day, and met with him at the East-West Shrine Bowl.

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  31. E. Robert's has good hand technic to get pass blockers. Very good motor and he also looks like he can play in the Wide-9 alignment with ease. Not bad, as a day 3 addition, imho.

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  32. Last day by NFL rules for top 30 visits. 22 confirmed names as of right now.

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  33. Top 30 Visit List:

    EDGE Mike Green *
    EDGE Landon Jackson *
    EDGE James Pearce Jr.
    EDGE Shemar Stewart
    EDGE Mykel Williams
    IDL Darius Alexander
    IDL Walter Nolen
    IDL Omarr Norman-Lott
    IDL TJ Sanders *
    IDL Tyleik Williams
    LB Kain Medrano
    LB Chris "Pooh" Paul Jr.
    CB Cobee Bryant
    CB Bilhal Kone
    CB Quincy Riley
    OT Kelvin Banks *
    OL Miles Frazier
    OG Marcus Mbow
    OL Caleb Rogers
    OT Josh Simmons
    WR Jordan Watkins
    WR Kyle Williams
    TE Jalin Conyers
    TE Harold Fannin Jr.
    TE Jackson Hawes

    *Unconfirmed

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  34. 8 days until the draft

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  35. "Ain't no stopping us now." Coach.

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  36. SHOULD THE 9ERS TRADE WITH MIAMI FOR CB Jalen Ramsey ? * Ramsey is ~ a year removed from a contract extension signed in September 2024 and due $25.1 Mil. fully guaranteed this season.
    * That would scare most teams away from paying the 30-year-old All-Pro but It’s a unique contract structure, the way Ramsey’s bonuses are structured in the deal,
    * The Dolphins would be the ones taking on the brunt of Ramsey’s contract if he’s traded. They’d have a 25.2 million cap hit in 2025, leaving the team that acquires Ramsey with a $5.92 million cap hit in 2025. That number more than tripled in 2026 to $18.29 million, and it continues to grow over the final two years to $20.05 million in 2027 and $31.19 million in 2028.
    * This is also the final year that Ramsey has any guaranteed money remaining on his contract. So, financially, it’s a deal the 49ers can make work.
    * A CB on the wrong side of 30 who just signed an extension in Sept. and was disgruntled by the end of the year isn’t fetching the Dolphins anything higher than a third-round pick.

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    Replies
    1. That would seem to go against everything they've done this offseason. But if he's still an elite talent it might make sense.

      Delete
    2. Scooter
      I have mixed feelings on a Ramsey trade, but Jacksonville selected Ramsey #5 in 2016. That was the final year Gus Bradley, who is now the assistant head coach on the 9ers, was the HC in Jacksonville. The Jaguars also had a LB
      coach, Saleh, on their coaching staff. If anybody knows what type of player Ramsey is, it’s Bradley and Saleh.
      * The 9ers also need to draft a CB to replace Charvarius Ward,
      Ramsey could satisfy that need and save the 9ers an early
      CB draft pick. So as you say, "it might make sense?"

      Delete
  37. I would pass on him. I honestly don't see the 49ers winning anymore than 10 games this season. Ramsey is not the guy we need in the locker room with young players. Save money and reset with younger guys going forward, imo.

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  38. Doubt they sign or add any veteran player that would cancel out one of their compensatory picks prior to April 29th.

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  39. Sounds as if the league might be lower on Cam Skattebo than draft media. I know I have been. Doesn't have the explosion and running backs shelf life is short enough without trying to sustain the way he runs.

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  40. Yup. Too bad that there is no longer any room in the NFL for past greats like Oak, Raiders Pete Banasiak and KC Chiefs Ed Podolak types. Those kind are relics of the past.

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